This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.



June 2008

Delegates before the Final Primaries

Eight more superdelegates today. Six for Obama, Two for Clinton.

So the new statistics:

Delegate count is: Obama 2076, Clinton 1917, Edwards 13

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.9%, Edwards 0.3%

2118 delegates are needed to win.

There are 228 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 42 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 201 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 18.4% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 22.9% before PR.)

Clinton needs 88.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 82.3% before PR.)

After two days, Puerto Rico and a bunch of superdelegates have already completely erased the benefit (in terms of percent of remaining delegates needed) that Clinton got from the Rules and Bylaws Committee over the weekend.

Based on the recent (limited) polls, I expect Obama to get 17 more pledged delegates out of Montana and South Carolina. (Compared to 14 for Clinton, not that it matters.)

That means that Obama needs about 25 more superdelegates to endorse to clinch the nomination.

There are lots of rumors swirling today about various blocks of supers intending to endorse Obama right after polls close tonight. None of these have been officially confirmed of course. Obama really wants to be able to wrap this up tonight and declare victory. If they keep trickling in during the day and then there is a bunch of them right as the polls close, he may be able to do this.

Or, he could be in the awkward situation of still being a few delegates short, with everybody knowing that he will get there… but not tonight.

We shall see. But this may well be over in less than 24 hours.

Well, at least in terms of Obama having the number of delegates he needs.

Who knows if Hillary will actually admit defeat and drop out or not. Or if instead she does that “suspend her campaign while reserving the right to make trouble between now and the convention” option.

First polls close in about 11 hours. Woo!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.