This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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Electoral College: Virginia flips to Obama

It is very much a swing state, the margins being very close at the moment in the “last five polls average”, but Virginia now flips from “Leaning McCain” to “Leaning Obama”. This doesn’t change either candidate’s “best case” numbers in my summary, since I allow for leaning states to go either way. But this does push Obama’s lead in the “everybody gets their leans” number further ahead.

The bounce continues.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 303, Obama 235
Obama Best Case – Obama 378, McCain 160

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232

Obama’s lead in that metric is now bigger than McCain’s was at his peak from May 15th to May 20th, but not yet larger than the lead McCain had from March 8th to March 10th when we first had polls in all 50 states.

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