Electoral College: Alaska Swings, Obama weakens in New Jersey

Mixed results today. Good news for each candidate in different places.

The good news for Obama: McCain’s lead in Alaska drops to less than 5% in my last five poll average. This moves Alaska from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain”. And it means Alaska is a swing state and really is up for grabs. Now, Alaska has apparently voted Republican in all but one election since it became a state. So tipping Alaska over might be a big deal. Except for the fact that it is only three electoral votes. But it looks like Obama might actually be competitive here, and this improves Obama’s best case slightly.

The good news for McCain: Obama’s lead in New Jersey slips to less than 10% in my last five poll average. New Jersey moves from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. The state is still a long way from being a swing state, but this weakening continues a trend over the last few of weeks, where Obama’s positions in Michigan, Wisconsin, South Carolina and New Hampshire have all deteriorated somewhat. But while Obama’s lead is diminished in New Jersey, it is still substantial enough to keep it blue on the overall map.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232