The good news for McCain continues. Today it is in the form of Obama’s lead in Minnesota dropping below 10%, moving the state from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. There is still quite a way for it to go before it becomes a swing state though. So the overall summary stays the same:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 293, McCain 245
Given how close together the two conventions are, and how state polling takes awhile to show any effects, I’m not sure if any “bounce” from the Democratic convention will even be visible. We’ll see I guess. In reality, I think we’ll have to wait until mid-September to try to get a picture of what things really look like after both candidates have picked their Veeps and had their conventions.
But right about now I could see Obama really wanting a big convention bounce. His really strong position in mid-July has just been steadily eroding ever since then. He’s still ahead at the moment, but McCain definitely has the momentum at the moment.
Note to future candidates: Wait until mid-November for the vacation. Take a day here or there to recharge perhaps. But a full week? Bad idea.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.