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Electoral College: Virginia and Wisconsin slip out of Romney’s reach

Lots of polls in lots of states, but two changing status today, and they are both important moves… so lets get right to them:

Polling in Virginia has gone into overdrive. In the last month there have been 11 polls added to my spreadsheet for Virginia. Eight of those have been just in the last week. The five poll average now only goes back four days. Things really are speeding up. On September 12th the five poll average in Virginia actually moved to an 0.3% Romney lead. On the 14th Obama took the lead again. Since then Obama’s lead has increased each day there have been new polls.

Today the five poll average goes above 5%. Obama is now ahead by 5.2%. This is just barely past my category boundary, so it would be easy for the next poll to reverse this move, but for the moment, Virginia gets colored blue as it moves from “Lean Obama” to “Weak Obama” in my models. This means that my “Best Case for Romney” model no longer includes the possibility of winning Virginia.

Polling has not been quite as prolific in Wisconsin. The five poll average goes back to August 23rd. At the end of August there were a bunch of polls trying to gauge reaction to the Paul Ryan pick for VP. And indeed, those polls showed Obama’s lead in the state dropping from 5.9% at the end of July, to a low of 1.7% at the end of August. There have only been two new polls since then, one showing a 6% Obama lead, and the other a 14% Obama lead.

The 14% poll seems like it would represent an extrodinary amount of movement, and it may well prove out in the end to be an outlier. We need more polls to validate the true post-Convention situation in Wisconsin. It seems clear there has been movement back toward Obama, but if the 14% poll proves to be an outlier, then the degree of that movement will be exaggerated.

For the moment though, the five poll average moves to an Obama lead of 6.1%. So like Virginia, Wisconsin moves out of Romney’s reach in my models. Even in the case where Romney sweeps all the “close” states, I don’t consider the winning in Wisconsin as part of the picture.

So, the new model summary:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 278 260
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 180 358

Now, the first thing I want to point out, as I often do, is that this represents “if the election was held today”… which of course it is not. The time left is vanishing quickly, but there is still plenty of time for big movement in the polls and the state of this summary. Things WILL change plenty before election day.

But as of right now… I had mentioned yesterday that we had a “hard map” for Romney. With Virginia and Wisconsin out of play, it becomes even harder. If Romney wins every single close state, he would win by a very slim margin. Only 9 more electoral votes than needed for a tie.

This means Florida (where Obama is ahead by 1.6%), Ohio (where Obama is ahead by 4.2%), North Carolina (where Romney is ahead by 3.6%), Tennessee (where Romney is ahead by 4.2%) and Colorado (where Obama is ahead by 1.4%) are now all must win states for Romney. If he loses any of those five states, he loses the election.

Tennessee looks pretty safe. Romney’s lead is less than 5%, but Obama has never been ahead in the five poll average.

North Carolina looks kinda safe too, but not quite as much. Obama has occasionally been ahead in the five poll average in North Carolina. It has usually been Romney though. A comeback for Obama might be possible there, but the recent trend has been toward Romney, not away from him.

In Colorado, Romney has never been ahead in the five poll average. He has been pretty close though, at one point only being behind by 0.2%. And at the moment that 1.4% is looking well within reach. The recent trend has been toward Romney.

Florida is looking iffier though. The lead in the five poll average has gone back and forth a bit, but for most of the last year, it has shown a very narrow Obama lead. It is a very close state. It could go either way. It is certainly not out of reach for Romney, he can win Florida. But he is behind there now, and has been most of the last year with just a few short spikes where he has been ahead.

Then there is Ohio. Although occasional individual polls have shown Romney ahead, at absolutely no time in the last year has Romney led in Ohio. Romney’s best performance in the five poll average was only being behind by 1.4%. His current 4.2% deficit in Ohio is not an impossible deficit. We call it a close state for a reason. A move that size CAN happen. But Romney has to really move things to get there.

Winning all five of these states will be quite a task. Not impossible by any means, but quite a task.

But remember, even if Romney sweeps these five “must win” states, it only gets him to 262 electoral votes. He would still need 7 more electoral votes to tie, or 8 more to win outright. That means he needs to win two out of three of the remaining close states… Iowa (where Romney is behind by 1%), Nevada (where Romney is behind by 3.8%), and New Hampshire (where Romney is behind by 2.4%).

Romney’s winning scenarios are possible. The paths are just very narrow at the moment.

Romney needs something big to shake up the race and start moving things in his direction. We’ll see what he comes up with. (Or what comes his way via luck or missteps by Obama.)

Note added 2012 Sep 25 12:09 UTC: Polls added to my data on September 25th moved the date Wisconsin moved from Lean Obama to Weak Obama from September 20th (the day of this post) to September 21st.

Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Absolutely Ga Ga

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Small Talk
  • Gaffes
  • More Gaffes / Middle East Blow Up / Management Styles
  • Electoral College Update / QE3 / iPhone 5

Recorded on 16 Sep 2012

Length this week – 1:20:22

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes Download MP3 File
View Podcast in iTunes View Raw XML Feed

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-19 (UTC)

  • Reading – Is the ‘Full’ Secret Video of Romney at Fundraiser Really Unedited? (Benny Johnson) http://t.co/T9YoTkPj #
  • Reading – Reality Check (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/K9exEw2b #
  • A few minutes ago I agreed that Amy could be the first one in the family with an iPhone 5. Her iPhone 4 died a couple days ago. So jealous! #
  • Reading – Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama (Nate Silver) http://t.co/VDJw2Wsg #
  • Reading – 5 ways Mitt Romney can (still) turn the 2012 race around (Chris Cillizza) http://t.co/tmF97UBh #
  • Reading – AT&T LTE goes live in Seattle ahead of iPhone 5 launch (Bryan Bishop) http://t.co/DIWighvY #
  • Alex fed an entire can of fish food to Hush the fish. Emergency tank cleaning now in progress. #
  • RT @GarrettQuinn: VENTURA: If I see light on the horizon with Gary Johnson you might see Jesse Ventura in 2016. #
  • Reading – Who to Support This Election? (Bruce, The Contrarian Conformist) http://t.co/RjOwoZmN #
  • Reading – Entitled to Food (Carl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/EqhKiIJE #
  • Reading – Why Barack Obama is winning (Jonathan Martin) http://t.co/7LUkNZng #
  • EC Update for Wed Sep 19 Done. Polls added for VA MI MA OR PA FL CO NH IN. Category changes in MI & IN. Blog post soon. http://t.co/kF2iz3uE #
  • Reading – Thoughts on Twitter for iPad (Pavan Rajam) http://t.co/1NwCVETG #
  • Lunch tweets! #
  • Pet peeve: HDTVs in public places showing SD content in “stretch” mode. Really? Spring for the HD package! It looks idiotic. #
  • MT @jbplainblog: RT @stevekornacki: I don’t get the point of polling swing states together. Just stick with national or individual states #
  • MT @JeffreyGoldberg: When I saw @DavidCornDC the other night, he neglected to mention that he was about to destroy the Romney campaign. #
  • Reading – Time for an Intervention (Peggy Noonan) http://t.co/hbselmuA #
  • Reading – Ars Technica: ‘Motorola Asks ITC to Ban Every Mac, iPad, and Most iPhones…’ (John Gruber) http://t.co/VV72uygN #
  • Reading – Roundup of iOS 6 Launch Day News and Reviews
    (Eric Slivka) http://t.co/0jAGkpv7 #
  • BTW, dreading iOS 6 cause Alex’s fav thing on iPhone is YouTube app that is going away. New one is much harder to use. He has rejected it. #
  • RT @GarrettQuinn: LP strategist to me on Johnson getting 5% nationwide? “I would be happy to get 5% in a couple of states.” #
  • Reading – A Mood of Gloom Afflicts the Romney Campaign (Michael Barbaro) http://t.co/lKi7bxNq #
  • And now back to work… #
  • .@joshtpm @polltracker Can I tell the app I want notifications on ALL state prez polls, or do I have to favorite 50 states + DC separately? #
  • RT @joshtpm @abulsme @PollTracker u have to do it individually. we dont want people to get overwhelmed. but its easy to do #
  • .@joshtpm Added the swing states for now. I’ll add more later perhaps. Note you don’t have DC. Not many polls there anyway. :-) #

Electoral College: Michigan blue again, Indiana weakens for Romney

The rate of polling has increased dramatically since the convention ended. It is now not uncommon for my daily sweep for new polls to pick up six or more new polls. In the pre convention days, having three polls on a single day would be a big day. This increase in poll frequency of course makes it likely that we’ll have more days where states flip categories, even if it is just from the natural jittering of random samples rather than real movements. So be sure to watch not just for the states that change on a given day, but also look to see if that change “sticks” as time goes on and new polls come in.

Today we have two states change status. In order by Electoral College weight:

First up Michigan with 16 electoral votes. It has bounced back and forth across the 5% Obama lead line the past few weeks in the five poll average. September started with Obama having an 0.7% lead in the state. September 13th his lead increased to over 5%, but then dropped below 5% again on the 16th. Now on the 19th it heads above 5% again.

The general trend has been toward Obama, but at 5.2% the state is still quite close to the boundary between my categories. So it would be easy for the very next poll to pull the average back below 5%. For the moment, the state moves from my “Lean Obama” category to my “Weak Obama” category, meaning that I no longer consider Romney winning Michigan a possibility strong enough to include in his “best case”.

But don’t be surprised if it gets closer and changes categories again. It looks like it is having fun bouncing back and forth at the moment.

Next up, Indiana with 11 electoral votes. Indiana has been very sparsely polled. Only four Romney/Obama polls in the state since the 2008 election. To round out the five poll average I have to include the 2008 McCain/Obama election results. In any case, prior to the last poll, the five poll average (which then included the 2004 election too) had the state with a 10.1% Romney lead. Shifting the new poll in, and 2004 out… 2004 was a huge 20.7% Bush victory over Kerry in Indiana… makes Romney’s lead drop to 7.2%.

This moves Indiana out of my “Strong Romney” category into my “Weak Romney” category, but make no mistake, Romney’s lead in Indiana is still quite substantial. At the moment nobody is expecting Obama to be able to reprise his 2008 win in the state. We’d need more polls than just the four to discern if there is actually any sort of trend making the state closer, but a little bit closer or not, it still isn’t close enough to be one of the states that could go either way.

This is a Romney state this year unless we get a huge Romney collapse in the next seven weeks.

So only Michigan changes anything in the models, making Romney’s best case slightly weaker, but still a win:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 301 237
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 180 358

Once again no mathematically “must win” states for Romney, but the paths are still narrow… this is a hard map for Romney. If he doesn’t win Florida, he has to win every other close state to win. If he does win Florida, he can afford a few losses in the close states, but not many. But if he loses Florida, it is hard seeing how he wins the other close states he would need to win.

Romney still needs a game changer to move things in his direction. And I’m pretty sure the events of the last few news cycles are not the kinds of game changers he needs.

Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-18 (UTC)

  • Lots of fun stuff happening in the news today. I was home today, but I was home sick, so haven’t had a chance to look at much yet. But wow. #
  • RT @DrewLinzer For the record, Mitt Romney was going to lose anyway. #
  • RT @ezraklein So was this the reset? #
  • RT @DeathStarPR Mitt Romney’s campaign just exploded so hard that an X-Wing and the Millenium Falcon were seen speeding from the wreckage. #
  • MT @BuzzFeedAndrew RT @brianstelter: As of 10:15pm, Fox News has not mentioned the leaked Romney video once. Its focus on protests overseas. #
  • Wow. Romney’s response when asked about the video is really incoherent too. And gets facts of what was released wrong too. #NotHelping #
  • RT @LOLGOP BREAKING: Todd Akin asks Mitt Romney to step aside for the good of the party. #
  • RT @ThoughtnDesign @abulsme Is it me or did he have a little Scrooge McDuck thing going on there with his wing tips? #
  • @ThoughtnDesign He always looks like that. :-) #
  • RT @RQDammit: @abulsme whats ur thoughts on this? http://t.co/qKiNH0GH #
  • @RQDammit I think it is very funny. When the Romney folks were talking about rebooting the campaign this is not what they had in mind. #
  • Reading – Inside the camp: How Mitt stumbled (Mike Allen & Jim VandeHei) http://t.co/EKYG6lHO #
  • RT @JoeMuto: Sounds like Romney’s advisors have already decided he’s lost, and are busy ass-covering: http://t.co/yq4Mn5ws #
  • Reading – Amid Discord, Romney Seeks to Sharpen Message (Jim Rutenberg & Jeff Zeleny) http://t.co/ewCXAxBf #
  • Reading – Beyond The Campaign, The Country (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/IwawFEbu #
  • Ditto MT @sullydish: I never EVER thought I’d say: Clinton’s performance at State make me want to see her POTUS one day:http://t.co/Z8vVVfPu #
  • RT @SylvesterMcCoy: New The Hobbit pictures, plus trailer due this week | Den of Geek http://t.co/AUq3Oia3 #
  • Reading – Just Right (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/hdjGxGE0 #
  • .@ThoughtnDesign Someone agrees with you… Reading – Mitt Romney’s Hair Is a Dead Give-Away (Charles Johnson) http://t.co/sFdG1yPq #
  • Reading – Thurston Howell Romney (David Brooks) http://t.co/SjydXjaI #
  • EC Update for Tue Sep 18 done. Added poll for KY. No status change. #
  • Reading – Obama The Night Owl (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/gNlDgybK #
  • RT @politicalwire: No longer about undecided voters, Romney campaign says it’s a base election now… http://t.co/aoYEVpM6 #
  • Reading – Tax Deadbeat Romney Calls other non-Taxpayers Leeches (Juan Cole) http://t.co/VpZhUJq9 #
  • Reading – Is Romney finally set to get specific? Nope. (Greg Sargent) http://t.co/DeFPBCqk #
  • Reading – Romney Unplugged Reax (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/SzeZCkm4 #
  • RT @woodhouseb: Romney, the guy running on his experience/ability to run things can’t run a convention or manage a campaign. #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney Holds Press Conference, Digs Himself Even Deeper (Paul Constant) http://t.co/D9vI7a4z #
  • RT @mckaycoppins: RT @RogerStoneJR: I always thought McCain ran the worst Presidential campaign in US history…..until now. #MittRomney #
  • Reading – Did Romney Just Lose The Election? Ctd (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/iWPoPYPv #
  • MT @mattyglesias: A reminder of the funny fact that budget math—9th grade algebra with large numbers—is considered very difficult in DC. #
  • Reading – Forgive Me for Finding This Charming (James Fallows) http://t.co/iK5zulal #
  • MT @JamesFallows: Milestone: Gawker schools Newswk in taste + responsibility RT @chashomans: Well played, Gawker: http://t.co/SsVPRomF #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney’s ‘Clinging to Guns or Religion’ Moment (Conor Friedersdorf) http://t.co/r2JXtKL2 #
  • RT @tbogg: Someone needs to tell Romney that you’re supposed to lock up your base BEFORE your convention. #
  • Reading – Did Romney Just Lose The Election? Ctd 2 (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/aXNDcBFi #
  • RT @ktumulty: Reminder to political class: it is september, not october. By november, this will feel like July does now. #
  • RT @chrislhayes: Called me crazy, but I think everyone *is* “entitled” to food and housing. #
  • RT @aaronecarroll: RT @ryanavent: Man, this Romney video could trigger some nasty campaign staff infighting. #
  • Go reading tweets! :-) RT @ThoughtnDesign: Reading: A War Against a War Time President http://t.co/c1P2lEts #
  • RT @CenteredPols: At this point we have to say Romney would be very lucky to get 47% by Election Day. #
  • RT @joshtpm: Now infamous Romney fundraiser was held at home of supporter known for throwing wild Hamptons sex parties http://t.co/0QeVnr4z #
  • RT @electionate: The timing might be worse (politically) than the actual remarks. Romney just can’t afford this right now. #
  • Important to Remember —> Reading – Mitt Romney and that 47% (John Sides) http://t.co/jtdvf2LH #
  • Reading – Obama’s Bounce (Chris Weigant) http://t.co/nPVQu6a8 #
  • Reading – Did Romney Just Lose The Election? (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/jPgpUn95 #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney thinks I’m an irresponsible moocher with an entitlement mentality (Brendan Loy) http://t.co/WD8Z6tWy #
  • RT @Atrios: after 3 qs, romney goes galt #
  • Reading – Romney Unplugged: Tweet Reax (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/f6KipBBn #
  • Reading – Three Things We Learned From The Secret Romney Video (The New Republic) http://t.co/wEsyBQc1 #
  • MT @TheFix: Regardless of what you think about what Romney said, this is ANOTHER giant distraction for a campaign 7 weeks from an election. #
  • Reading – How Jimmy Carter’s Grandson Helped Leak the Secret Romney Fund-raiser Video (Joe Coscarelli) http://t.co/MvHuBnJi #
  • RT @AriMelber: So SNL’s @JayPharoah did nail it this weekend: The Obama Campaign’s secret weapon really is Mitt Romney. #
  • RT @OKnox: Wow, if Twitter is any guide, @MittRomney has *really* lost liberals this time. #
  • MT @GlennThrush: Let’s see if perception Romney is collapsing is matched by polls showing same before we call this one in the 7th inning. #
  • .@GlennThrush Rom doesn’t need to collapse to lose. Was already losing. Anything that keeps him from surging has same effect as collapse. #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney’s darkest hour (Chris Cillizza) http://t.co/gFS4c9el #
  • RT @kkondik: Even after Romney gaffe I’m not sure the race is any different now than it was 24 hours ago. #
  • RT @Kalbelgarion: @kkondik I don’t think the video changed the race. But it makes it harder for Romney to change the race going forward. #
  • MT @AriMelber: Only 10% of US households pay no fed taxes. Focus on income tax only is old GOP distraction. http://t.co/hTY84leT @DLeonhart #
  • RT @ChaseMit: Romney’s new campaign slogan is “WAIT, DON’T CLICK ON ANY NEWS SITES” #
  • Reading – After Hundreds of Yrs Astronomers Finally Agree: This Is the Distance From the Earth to Sun (Megan Garber) http://t.co/tpiWghTb #
  • Now the video on FP… Reading – SECRET VIDEO: On Israel, Romney Trashes Two-State Solution (David Corn) http://t.co/Bvwjr4JZ #
  • Reading – Romney Unplugged Reax II (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/bE2irI7T #
  • Reading – A technical correction to the Meta-Analysis (Sam Wang) http://t.co/1dwuDbug #
  • Reading – Oh, Mitt….. (Daniel W. Drezner) http://t.co/E2plpKnH #
  • Reading – We Are All Welfare Queens Now (Ta-Nehisi Coates) http://t.co/1LwQ6VFV #
  • RT @smotus: Romney does want to become president, right? #
  • RT @peretti: Some people cling to guns and religion; others are dependent on the government, why can’t we all just get along? #
  • Reading – The Long Strange Leak Of Mitt Romney’s 47% Video (Ben Smith) http://t.co/e9vh0Ln1 #
  • RT @joshtpm: I guess by Thursday will get to the part where Mitt says he’d have a better shot at winning if his parents were Mexican. #
  • Second day home sick from work. I’m better than yesterday (cross fingers) but now Alex is sick. So we’re off to the Doctor shortly. #
  • Reading – Judge Stays Injunction Against Indefinite Detention Law (Jonathan H. Adler) http://t.co/29AedlXB #
  • RT @quasimado: Mitt: ‘I have inherited nothing.’ I really can’t get over this statement. #
  • RT @joshtpm: Romney now complaining that he wasn’t born w/all the advantages of blacks and Mexicans #
  • RT @joshtpm: Feel betrayed by the MSM yahoos I cld normally trust to tell this was EXCELLENT news for Mitt Romney. #
  • Reading – What Romney Gets Right About the 47 Percent (Alex Klein) http://t.co/eYYUnJxY #
  • MT @twitntwirp2012 “not elegantly stated” would have been – screw the lazy SOB’s they hate us anyway. We need the mindless 5% in the middle. #
  • RT @ThoughtnDesign: Something in the back of my mind just knew they should have run Herman Cain. #47percent #
  • MT @ThePlumLineGS: It is premature to declare Mitt Romney finished. Though Obama clearly winning now, this race could still go either way. #
  • .@ThePlumLineGS Yes, could still go either way, but Romney can only win if something very dramatic changes. Strategy “adjustments” not enuf. #
  • Reading – Signs Of A Wave Taking Shape? (Sheri Rivlin & Allan Rivlin) http://t.co/4g3EmTTd #
  • Reading – The Reactions to Romney’s Secret Fundraising Tape Keep Pouring In (Paul Constant) http://t.co/7qVY0QSQ #
  • Reading – A Final Look at the Convention Bounce: It’s All Obama (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/oYLt9fqh #
  • Reading – Romney’s problem isn’t that he’s a bad candidate. It’s that he’s a conservative one. (Ezra Klein) http://t.co/2Oi5SX8U #

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-17 (UTC)

  • Reading – Is Netanyahu Trying To Blow Up The Election? (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/mqmjGrVw #
  • RT @DouthatNYT: The Romney death spiral continues: Obama’s lead in Gallup rolling average down from 7 points to 3 over the last five days. #
  • Amen!!! Reading – Conservatives, Democrats and the convenience of denouncing free speech (Glen Greenwald) http://t.co/7XDjKvHX #
  • EC Update for Mon Sep 17 done. New poll added for VA. No category change. #
  • Reading – The Romney campaign is in trouble (Ezra Klein) http://t.co/bWosCTl9 #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney Will Not Be Providing a Detailed Economic Plan Anytime Soon, Thankyouverymuch (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/ZdJ0KmCf #

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-16 (UTC)

  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Sometimes you need to take a moment to just relax http://t.co/S8TTDCCw #
  • Reading – iPhone 5 Pre-Order Sells Out 20X Faster Than 4 And 4S, Highlighting Apple’s Dominance (Billy Gallagher) http://t.co/xPEeS9GW #
  • MT @ppppolls: Possible we won’t poll PA again until last week before election when we poll everything- wouldn’t have expected that year ago #
  • MT @dangillmor: Google: no to WH video takedown request http://t.co/dEBfFeGq Too bad Visa PayPal et al didn’t show same courage re Wikileaks #
  • RT @brendanbaker: This is perhaps the most exciting chart for anyone building new products, or funding them. http://t.co/DzSAmpdG #
  • RT @daveweigel: RT @PatrickRuffini: Raise your hand if you think a sequester wouldn’t be so bad. #
  • RT @noeljackson: Ugh – can we just call it for Obama now and find more productive / entertaining ways to occupy time until Nov. 6? #
  • Reading – Romney Death Spiral Beginning? (Ben Jacobs) http://t.co/WytY8dLO #
  • RT @DouthatNYT: Seems like there’s a big difference between being behind in the polls and being in a “death spiral”: http://t.co/u851cJgv #
  • MT @DouthatNYT: R’s pos is slightly better than Kerry’s at the same point in 2004: http://t.co/AWHIZSla. Was Kerry in a “death spiral”? No. #
  • RT @DouthatNYT: Like Kerry at this point in ’04, Romney is on track to lose. But like Kerry, he’s still very much in contention. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: To win in November, Romney has to do a bit better than he is currently. Or run into some good luck. #boring #accurate #
  • Reading – A solar eclipse… FROM MARS! (Phil Plait) http://t.co/m1Ir6sUQ #
  • RT @owillis: i keep seeing cons says they expect undecideds to break for the challenger. im sure president kerry agrees. cmon, guys. #
  • Reading – The Foreign Relations Fumbler (Nicholas D. Kristof) http://t.co/GPS64pLr #
  • RT @dandrezner: Ouch, @NickKristof: “Mhe essential problem is that every time Romney touches FP, he breaks things.” http://t.co/GPS64pLr #
  • MT @philipsturner: @jricole: ‘Obama Plays Hardball&Morsi Folds’ I had same thought, the ‘ally’ stiff arm was no gaffe. http://t.co/JCx0xcZQ #
  • Reading – Obama Plays Hardball and Egypt’s Morsi Folds (Juan Cole) http://t.co/JCx0xcZQ #
  • Reading – Drone Flying Over Washington, D.C., Neighborhood Goes Missing (Ritika Singh) http://t.co/EN71bGUw #
  • Reading – In-Person Voter Fraud: Not Really a Matter of Opinion (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/cuiNZZNr #
  • Reading – The Obama Turnaround (Drew, Votamatic) http://t.co/vWOOORCD #
  • Reading – The Obama campaign takes on the `are you better off’ question (Greg Sargent) http://t.co/lUirZN8t #
  • RT @AntDeRosa: “You guys know YouTube has a comment section right?” – Seth Meyers on Muslim protests #snl #
  • Reading – My Problem With Rasmussen (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/whsM9tTf #
  • Reading – Twitter Might Be Looking To Kill Off Third Party Image Hosts (Eric Limer) http://t.co/4xWZCrej #
  • Reading – Party polarization as seen through two Romney gaffes (Seth Masket) http://t.co/QWMbxeoV #
  • Reading – They have to go all in on every front—class warfare, culture, and foreign policy. (Michael Tomasky) http://t.co/CRKr1sOr #
  • Reading – If Bush Had Said That About Egypt (Michael Tomasky) http://t.co/XbYrSfha #
  • Finished recording CC for this week. I will get it out later in the week as time allows. #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @AlexNBCNews: Ambassador Rice on #MTP calls Romney’s reaction to attacks in Libya/Egypt a “vacuous charge of weakness” #
  • Watching – Obama vs Romney Cold Open (SNL) http://t.co/b6DC9boW #
  • EC Update for Sun Sep 16 Done. New poll added for MI. Also added older NV poll I’d missed. MI changes status. Blog post soon. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: A fifty-something couple with a $200,000 household income and a single 29 year-old with the same income aren’t the same. #
  • RT @mattyglesias: A friend went from a top-tier Philosophy PhD program to a hedge fund: Overnight transformation from lower to upper class? #
  • RT @morganwarstler: @abulsme we treat them the same, because @mattyglesias will fuck up deciding what to value. @mattyglesias is the reason #
  • MT @ggreenwald: Often out of the same mouth: 1-Free speech doesn’t extend to advocating violence; 2-I want my country to attack & bomb them #

Electoral College: Michigan Gets Closer Again

So that didn’t last long. Three days ago Michigan topped a 5% Obama lead in my five poll average… just barely, at 5.1%. Now with a new poll, that drops back down to 4.4%. So, once again, I consider Michigan in the “could go either way” category.

We’re still right around my arbitrary 5% line, so the next poll could easily move this back above 5%. Or of course it could move things further in Romney’s direction. For the moment though, back to being close enough that we consider it within the realm of possibility that Romney takes the state in November.

Having said that, although a few individual polls have shown Romney ahead, at no time in the last year has Romney been ahead in Michigan in the five poll average. This is not one of the “closest of the close” states where the lead has gone back and forth all year. This is a state that is relatively close, but Obama has been ahead all along.

With Michigan now once again included in Romney’s best case, the new summary is:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 301 237
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 180 358

So pretty much where we’ve been for awhile: Obama with a substantial lead. Romney still able to win if he sweeps almost all of the close states, most of which he is currently behind in.

To win Romney needs something big that changes the dynamics of the race. More of the same from both sides just ends up with a fairly comfortable Obama win.

Note: Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate and show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

@abulsme Updates from 2012-09-15 (UTC)

  • MT @joshtpm: @ some pt Romney gets moment of clarity when realizes Obama has Voodoo'd him into talking abt everything under sun besides econ #
  • Reading – Note to AP: Don’t Be Dupes (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/PaHhCJoj #
  • Reading – Thoughts and Observations Regarding Yesterday’s iPhone 5 and Music Event (John Gruber) http://t.co/BVft280Q #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney Drops His 3 a.m. Phone Call (James Fallows) http://t.co/hKjv9W18 #
  • MT @mattyglesias: I blame Obama's weak-kneed strategy of appeasement and apology. RT @majidyar: Unconfirmed reports Mullah Omar killed. #
  • MT @ThoughtnDesign Can't Wait! MT @upwithchris: Good morning #uppers Today we're examining the Mid East, Romney FP & tensions with Israel. #
  • @ThoughtnDesign @upwithchris My cousin @natsecHeather will be one of the guests. Enjoy the show! I'm grabbing it on my @Tivo for later. #
  • RT @ThoughtnDesign @abulsme This line of attack on Obama is so absurd. Obviously this man luvs killing terrorists. #
  • @ThoughtnDesign Reality is so constraining though. Why be bound? #
  • RT @ThoughtnDesign: Hope u r up early editing the next episode of Curmudgeon's Corner. @abulsme #JustSayin #
  • @ThoughtnDesign Last CC out Wednesday. Next not rec until tommorrow . Was actually still up from Fri. Cleaning. #NotFunStuff #UpAgainAlready #
  • @ThoughtnDesign Alex says sun is up so it is wake wake time. Doesn't care it is less than four hours since mommy and daddy went to bed. #
  • EC Update for Sat Sep 15 done. Polls added for CO VA WA NJ NC IL PA. No category changes. #
  • RT @ThoughtnDesign I remember those days. #
  • @ThoughtnDesign Sleepy days. :-) #
  • RT @texasinafrica: Dear @CNN, rage against that film has not "spread" to Africa – Egypt & Libya are IN Africa: http://t.co/ZSt19g3s #
  • Reading – Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard (Nate Silver) http://t.co/GfJjHOeC #
  • MT @jamisonfoser: Romney didn’t say middle income is $200k-$250k. He said that’s upper bound of middle income. Which is still dumb. #
  • For reference, middle 60% for US Household Income = $18.5k to $92k per year (2005 numbers). http://t.co/ithsUEJf #
  • RT @Glinner: Just saw a bit of that film. It's THAT easy to cause a global shitstorm? #
  • Amy's breakfast set off the smoke alarms. My ears hurt. #
  • MT @aburnspolitico: RT @MarkLeibovich: If elect were held today, a lot of people would be surprised. Cause its s'posed to be in Nov, y'know? #
  • Reading – State Department: Stop asking us about the Benghazi attack (Josh Rogin) http://t.co/mUmdRveB #
  • RT @SimonJackman: @jbplainblog looks like the convention effects have peaked (thanks Rasmussen) #
  • RT @ThoughtnDesign @abulsme Any chance they'll charge that guy for exciting a riot? #
  • @ThoughtnDesign I have heard some talk of something like that, but I think it would be extremely misguided and wrong. Hope they don't. #
  • Reading – Rick Santorum: "Smart People Will Never Be on Our Side" (Charles Johnson) http://t.co/AqzW95qp #
  • Reading – Mars Curiosity Rover’s Landing Video Now In Ultra HD (Carl Franzen) http://t.co/SJcmEzwn #
  • Reading – Why Romney Will Win (Dick Morris) http://t.co/emEPZBr8 #
  • MT @owillis: pet peeve & i see libs doing it now but everyone does it. potus is commander-in-chief of us military NOT the american people. #
  • Reading – FAA: passenger flights OK at Paine Field (AP) http://t.co/5SgSlVeU #
  • Reading – Obama Bump Translates to Electoral College Lead (Mark Blumenthal) http://t.co/kpuqlJz9 #
  • Reading – We Don’t Need No Education (Paul Krugman) http://t.co/mJe1o1W4 #
  • Reading – Model-Based Poll Averaging: How Do We Do It? (Simon Jackman) http://t.co/kxzvD4T2 #
  • Reading – 'EVE Online' players were first to learn of US official's death in Libya (Andrew Webster) http://t.co/FGj1JjGF #
  • Reading – Dinesh D'Souza and Gondorian Exceptionalism (Doctor Science, Obsidian Wings) http://t.co/97ytm1EB #

14974.93015 Days

As of when this posts at 19:17 UTC (12:17 PM Pacific, 3:17 PM Eastern) I will be exactly 41 years old. Woo!?

Now, nominally my birthday is the 16th, not the 15th, but with properly taking into account leap days and the exact proper length of a year, etc, this is where it ends up. So I get to celebrate a day earlier than folks would perhaps normally think. Exciting, huh?