This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Down 99.8%

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and IvГЎn talk about:
* No Longer at Ease / Birth of a Nation
* State of the Union
* Microsoft Announcements
* North Korea / Switzerland

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Recorded 2015-01-22

Length this week – 1:01:53

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Electoral College: Christie fades in Pennsylvania

Polling in the last couple months has been a bit slow. Prior to the 2014 elections, there had been a lot of polling piggy backing on Senate polls. Not so much since the election. But finally, with the batch of polls I processed today, for the first time since I launched the Election 2016 site in November, there has been a change worth a blog post!*

Namely, looking at the Clinton vs Christie combination, with the addition of a PPP poll released on Thursday, Pennsylvania has slipped from “Weak Clinton” to “Strong Clinton”:

chart

(Click through on the image for more details on the specific polls, etc.)

Now, you’ll notice there haven’t been all that many polls here. The five poll average at the moment covers 1.1 years. That is a long time. But even with this small number, you can see that in late 2013, Christie appears to have had a bit of a spike, making Pennsylvania look like a close state, with one poll even showing Christie ahead. But the more recent polls show Clinton with a healthy lead, and the 5 poll average now has Clinton with a 6.0% lead.

Now, this still leaves Christie looking better in Pennsylvania than the other 4 combinations that are “best polled” nationally:

chart-2

(Again, click through on the image for more detail.)

Paul, Bush, Ryan and Huckabee all trail Clinton by more than 10% in Pennsylvania. So I guess Christie still has that.

Looking at what this means nationally, with Pennsylvania taken out of the “possible” category for Christie… at least for now… the summary for Clinton vs Christie looks like this:

Screen Shot 2015-01-23 at 09.09.44481

After Christie’s best case peaked at winning by 116 electoral votes back in February 2014, the trend has been downward, and the new change just continues that:

chart-3

(Once again, click through on the image for… oh, never mind… you get how that works now, right?)

A lot of the “movement” here is still polling catching up with reality, but it does seem like Christie continues to fade, and so far he has not been able to reverse his fortunes. There is of course still a long time until we even get to the Iowa caucuses, let alone the 2016 election, but Christie isn’t doing all that great at the moment.

Since it is Christie’s “best case” that changed with the latest update, lets also take a quick look at the Republican best cases for all of the best polled combinations:

chart-4

Wow, that looks messy. You’ll note that at the moment none of the five Republicans win against Clinton, even if you give them all of the close states. It looks like Huckabee actually has the best best case, but Huckabee is also the least well polled of the five, so take that one with a grain of salt. Otherwise, in terms of their best cases, in the last six to nine months while Christie’s situation has deteriorated vs Clinton, Bush and Ryan have improved theirs, and Paul has been basically flat.

Of course, Ryan has taken himself out of the race at this point. And Romney seems to have jumped in. As I described last week, as new polls are released Clinton vs Ryan should drop off the “Top 5 Best Polled” list and Clinton vs Romney will probably rise onto it. But not yet. Clinton vs Ryan is still #4 at the moment. The two additional polls for Clinton vs Romney since last week (one in NJ and one in PA) have moved Clinton vs Romney from the 21st best polled combination all the way up to… the 20th best polled combination. Still quite a ways to go. And still very sparse data. But if Romney is serious, the polls will come soon enough.

Stay tuned…

* For the moment, I consider a change to be “worth posting” if it involves one of the five best polled candidate pairs and it either changes one of the “summary” stats (the expected margin, the Republican best case margin, the Democratic best case margin), or there is a change to the tipping point margin of at least 0.1%. Of course, ALL changes in the summary, the tipping point margins, state categorizations, and even individual polls, for all candidate combinations, are posted at @ElecCollPolls for those interested in all those details.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-22 (UTC)

  • 18:25:32 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 14:44:30 Speaking of early polls, an LA Times poll out this week in 1999 had George W. Bush leading Al Gore 57% to 39%.
  • 23:17:53 Retweeted @ahmed 23:16:42 Saudi King Abdullah dead: royal court statement read on state television
  • 23:29:44 Retweeted @jamietarabay 23:27:21 A 90 year old dead king, a 79 year old new king and a 69 year old new crown prince. Saudi Arabia in a nutshell.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-21 (UTC)

  • 01:49:59 Retweeted @TonyRomm 01:48:25 White House publishes SOTU text on medium, apparently says who needs an embargo: https://t.co/zmNpRUldT4
  • 01:52:02 The #SOTU is about to start. I am sure I am going to hear yelling and screaming from the neighbors, just like I did on Sunday, right?
  • 02:04:21 I have the speech up in a window to read along. I may even read ahead a little.. :-) https://t.co/oAZ9oBMuSz
  • 02:05:49 As I say at every #SOTU, I wish they would stop with the “people in the audience” theatrics. It really doesn’t add anything.
  • 02:07:18 And here we go… well, after the however long it takes to walk to the front… #SOTU
  • 02:12:10 Here goes. Is everyone EXCITED? :-) [These things are usually so useless…]
  • 02:13:38 I’ll vote for any president who will tell them all to hold their applause to the end. #SOTU
  • 02:15:48 The streaming I am using for #SOTU keeps breaking up. Bleh.
  • 02:24:29 Friday night pizza was NOT in the prepared remarks! Hmm, pizza… #SOTU
  • 02:27:53 Would b fun #SOTU if after “state of the union is good” he just said “and now I have this stack of executive orders 2 sign, screw congress.”
  • 02:32:55 The whole #FreeCommunityCollege thing made a lot more sense when I realized it was a #SOTU preview… these are almost always just trolling.
  • 02:33:40 Releasing #SOTU proposals slowly over the last couple weeks very smart though. Much more attention than just as part of a list tonight.
  • 02:36:06 I don’t hear screaming from the neighbors, but I do hear a siren… #SOTU
  • 02:39:27 Retweeted @natsecHeather 02:39:18 Note that trade agreements framed as "protecting American workers" from China. WH has been reading @pewresearch polling.
  • 02:41:31 It is normal that #SOTU is mostly posturing & few proposals with chance of being real, but very little reaching across the isle here at all.
  • 02:44:03 Most of this #SOTU is proposing things that sound good (some may be, but that’s not important), then expecting R’s to look bad by opposing.
  • 02:45:54 I missed it… who is the designated Cabinet survivor tonight? Usually people make a point of mentioning that. #SOTU
  • 02:47:54 Asking for an AUMF is nice, but a little meaningless unless it goes along with belief and reality that Pres can’t act without it.
  • 02:48:51 I sometimes forget to say #SOTU. Oops.
  • 02:51:11 Veto veto veto! Veto everything! #SOTU
  • 02:52:26 Anti-cyberthreat legislation very dangerous. Quite likely to be worse than the problem it tries to fix. Be wary! #SOTU
  • 02:58:37 GTMO was never the problem, it was treatment of prisoners, indefinite detention, etc. GTMO itself is a distraction. #SOTU
  • 03:00:02 Quoting the 2004 Convention speech. Too bad that vision didn’t work out. It’s what a lot of folks voted for. #SOTU
  • 03:02:27 He can believe in unity all he wants, doesn’t make it true. Unfortunately. Cause there IS common ground. But too few want to go there. #SOTU
  • 03:05:56 Lots of time on this 2004 unity theme. Should save this for farewell address in 2017. No changes on this coming, will all be the same. #SOTU
  • 03:07:49 Applause for no more campaigns. Then snappy comeback. Nice. #SOTU
  • 03:08:40 Retweeted @Green_Footballs 03:08:29 "I have no more campaigns to run" = "I have no more fucks left to give"
  • 03:09:03 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:08:53 Perhaps u forgot Obama actually IS really good at politics.Ad-libbing "cause I won both of them" when GOP cheered "I have no more campaigns"
  • 03:10:00 Retweeted @m67smith 03:09:53 "I know, cause I won both of them" best off the cuff comeback in a presidential speech ever?
  • 03:10:58 And that is that. #SOTU
  • 03:12:25 Retweeted @ppppolls 03:12:14 We found over the weekend by a 50/29 spread that ppl think Punxsutawney Phil would do a better job than 'most current members of Congress'
  • 03:13:46 Retweeted @mmurraypolitics 03:13:32 @chucktodd makes a good point: Obama's SOTU sure sounded like a farewell/valedictory speech b/c 2016 presidential race is coming
  • 03:18:44 The #SOTU will of course be a topic on the next Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast with me and @ivanbou later this week. http://t.co/i53ABYnGU7
  • 03:22:25 There are many reasons “this Obama” hasn’t been visible last 6 yrs, but I think that was a strategic misjudgment. People like this O. #SOTU
  • 03:23:26 Can we get on with the R response already? I’m ready to move on. :-) #SOTU
  • 03:33:36 Reminder that the oppo party has to write their speech before they see #SOTU. One reason it always sucks. Disconnected from previous speech.
  • 03:34:58 Retweeted @pareene 03:33:56 never agree to do the response ever
  • 03:35:23 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:35:02 One of the first times I appeared on FOX, a commenter said I looked like "a Stepford wife." I now see what the person meant.
  • 03:36:53 Ernst really did do a pretty dead delivery. I’m sure she does better in other venues, right? The response is just always bad news. #SOTU
  • 03:37:18 Retweeted @drgrist 03:37:01 Well, that was terrible, but it wasn’t quirky terrible or gaffe-y terrible, so it will likely be forgotten, entirely and instantly. #ernst
  • 03:37:36 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:36:10 "thank you for allowing me to speak with you tonight?" I kinda want to hug her and get her some assertiveness counseling.
  • 03:37:44 Retweeted @TheBarnesology 03:35:15 I’ve not heard a WORD #JoniErnst has said because she’s an SNL skit in the making.
  • 03:40:40 Retweeted @SuzanneNossel 02:41:07 Will the internet that reaches every classroom include surveillance capabilities that feed every pupil's data back to the NSA? #SOTU
  • 03:47:56 On “I’m not a scientist but I know some” bit, it was good. Debate should be on what (if anything!) to do, not on if GW is happening. #SOTU
  • 03:48:29 Retweeted @costareports 03:47:32 Why Ernst? Insiders say top Rs didn't want to play favorites w/ 2016ers, didn't want to do it themselves (Lott, others have done so in past)
  • 03:51:56 Retweeted @wilw 03:51:37 So we're just ignoring that POTUS didn't even *mention* what he's doing to prevent the human/animal hybrids that Bush warned us about. #SOTU
  • 03:55:12 OK, done with #SOTU stuff. Time to do other things for the rest of the evening…
  • 04:35:19 Retweeted @dccommonsense 04:23:58 Why all this attention to the SOTU OR the GOP response? C'mon folks…this is all positioning for 2016.This translates into nothing tangible
  • 04:39:44 Retweeted @petersuderman 04:35:10 CNN has Ben Carson and Bernie Sanders on right now to discuss SOTU, which is a sign it's time to turn off the TV and go to bed.
  • 05:01:47 To answer my previous question about the #SOTU designated survivor: Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx http://t.co/cHWetOa5Xt
  • 07:00:40 Retweeted @PlanetaryKeri 06:09:28 OMFSM XKCD MADE A @NASA_Dawn CERES COMIC *spazzes* http://t.co/2Gf3UEasAy
  • 07:01:33 Retweeted @nycsouthpaw 06:14:04 Think different. RT @mmcauliff: Wow. The press gallery over the House floor for #SOTU looks like a damn Apple ad. http://t.co/kho8FqjBa3 in reply to mmcauliff
  • 14:24:40 Reading – Biden: ‘Yes, There’s a Chance’ I’ll Challenge Hillary
    ‘Wide Open on Both Sides’ (Daniel Halper) http://t.co/gNKeSIZppa
  • 14:25:21 Retweeted @kairyssdal 12:41:34 Things that are not valuable at all: asking a Democrat and then a Republican what they thought of a president's (any president's) SOTU.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-20 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-19 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-18 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-17 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2015-01-16 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-16 (UTC)