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Electoral College: Trump improving, but not enough

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states, DC, and the Maine congressional districts

Notable changes in: Iowa, Georgia, Utah, Alaska, Indiana, Missouri, Maine (CD2), and the tipping point

National Summary

It has been about six days since my last update and the trend since then has been toward Trump. Here are the stats:

Good for Trump:

  • The expected result changed from a 140 EV Clinton win to a 130 EV Clinton win
  • The tipping point moved from Clinton by 4.9% in PA to Clinton by 4.1% in PA
  • Clinton’s best case declined from a 238 EV win to only a 234 EV win

No change

  • Trump’s best case remained a 34 EV win

Charts

chart-20

chart-21

Discussion

With all the data we have now, looking back to the release of “the tape” on October 7th the overall movement has been mixed. Both candidates have improved their “best cases” as states that were not close have gotten closer… on both sides. So this doesn’t show a move toward one candidate or another, but rather some red states getting less red while simultaneously some blue states got less blue.

Some of the really close states moved across the center line… in both directions… resulting in a net movement of the expected electoral college margin toward Trump by 24 electoral votes… but the most indicative sign of movement toward Trump is actually the tipping point.

Since the release of the tape the tipping point has moved from Clinton leading by 6.0% (in Virginia) to Clinton leading by only 4.1% (in Pennsylvania). So… with some of the worst news cycles for a politician in decades, with day after day after day of negative revelations…  Trump improved his position by nearly 2%.

How to interpret this? My best guess… Most people were pretty well set on their Trump vs Clinton choice prior to the reveal of the tapes and the subsequent sexual assault allegations. In the wake of the first debate the part of the public that was persuadable had already swung us from near Trump’s ceiling to near Trump’s floor. With the string of additional bad news, very few die hard Trump supporters moved away from him, while some number of those persuadables viewed this as the press piling on Trump and went back to him thinking this was unfair.

But to be honest, the above is trying to make up a story to fit the numbers. Is it right? I don’t know.

In the end though, the reality is that in the face of a hurricane of bad coverage, Trump has actually improved his position.

Despite the improvement, Trump is still losing by a significant margin, but Trump’s best case does still includes a win.

If he keeps all the states he leads, then flips Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania, he could still pull out a narrow win. Arizona is close enough it could flip back easily enough. North Carolina and Florida have both been back and forth over the past couple months, so seeing them go red again would not be shocking.

Pennsylvania is the hard pull. While he made it close in September, Trump has never led in Pennsylvania. And Trump needs Pennsylvania to win. Right now, this is Clinton’s firewall.

Clinton would clearly like to be leading in Pennsylvania by more than 4.1%… but even at that margin, it is a tall wall for Trump to climb.

There are 13.7 days left until the first polls close. With less than two weeks left to go now, it is almost certainly too late for Trump to flip all the states he would need to flip in order to win. But if he manages to continue the trend of the last couple of weeks, it is enough time for him to make it close enough that Democrats will start to panic.

State Details

The following are the detailed state charts for states that influenced the status changes since the last update.

Weak Clinton to Weak Trump

chart-22

Weak Trump to Weak Clinton

chart-23

Influencing the tipping point

chart-24

chart-25

Now possible Clinton pickups

chart-26

chart-27

No longer possible pickups for Clinton

chart-29

chart-30

chart-28

A note about McMullin

Election Graphs is designed around showing the Republican – Democrat margin, and there is not enough time before the election to revamp the site to properly account for 3rd parties that are strong enough to have a shot at winning electoral votes.

Right now the Real Clear Politics average in Utah has McMullin 5.5% behind the lead. The 538 average in Utah has him 8.5% behind the lead. If/when McMullin is within 5% according to either of these averages, I will add notes to both the Utah and National pages about the possibility of McMullin winning Utah’s 6 electoral votes.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks a state poll based estimate of the Electoral College. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-10-25 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-10-25 (UTC)

  • 15:56:17 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in CT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 53.3% to Trump 37.1% to Johnson 5.8% to Stein 2.2%
  • 15:59:45 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in DE from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 54.4% to Trump 37.2% https://t.co/2hYys7X0V6
  • 15:59:50 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in DE from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 54.4% to Trump 37.2% to Johnson 5.1% to Stein 1.7%
  • 16:02:59 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in DC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 83.8% to Trump 8.8% https://t.co/lxLufQ1jhR
  • 16:03:04 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in DC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 83.8% to Trump 8.8% to Johnson 3.9% to Stein 1.9%
  • 16:06:10 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in FL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.4% to Trump 45.4% https://t.co/vDfMu9eypw
  • 16:06:15 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in FL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.4% to Trump 45.4% to Johnson 3.5% to Stein 1.4%
  • 16:08:15 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in GA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 44.4% https://t.co/wCArTVRnAM
  • 16:08:20 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in GA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 44.4% to Johnson 5.0% to Stein 1.1%
  • 16:13:20 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in HI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 60.1% to Trump 29.6% https://t.co/vI4XB3k7q8
  • 16:13:25 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in HI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 60.1% to Trump 29.6% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 2.8%
  • 16:15:50 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in ID from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 31.0% to Trump 54.8% https://t.co/ZFOSMR84GC
  • 16:15:55 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in ID from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 31.0% to Trump 54.8% to Johnson 7.5% to Stein 1.9%
  • 16:19:35 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in IL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 53.6% to Trump 37.2% https://t.co/6HaLU83EjG
  • 16:19:40 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in IL from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 53.6% to Trump 37.2% to Johnson 4.8% to Stein 2.3%
  • 16:22:19 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in IN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 39.9% to Trump 48.3% https://t.co/H5D5ekkLnG
  • 16:22:23 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in IN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 39.9% to Trump 48.3% to Johnson 7.9% to Stein 1.4%
  • 16:24:17 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in IA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 46.0% to Trump 43.2% https://t.co/odDxN0orGT
  • 16:24:22 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in IA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 46.0% to Trump 43.2% to Johnson 6.7% to Stein 1.8%
  • 16:25:56 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in KS from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 36.0% to Trump 51.7% https://t.co/xi15VJM16x
  • 16:26:02 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in KS from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 36.0% to Trump 51.7% to Johnson 7.7% to Stein 2.0%
  • 16:28:02 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in KY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 35.8% to Trump 55.8% https://t.co/ldNXtNuOKY
  • 16:28:07 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in KY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 35.8% to Trump 55.8% to Johnson 5.1% to Stein 1.5%
  • 16:29:51 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in LA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 41.9% to Trump 49.6% https://t.co/MPRnFwBw19
  • 16:29:56 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in LA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 41.9% to Trump 49.6% to Johnson 5.1% to Stein 1.4%
  • 16:32:15 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in ME-All from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 49.7% to Trump 40.4% https://t.co/2sXXIkIlBC
  • 16:32:20 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in ME-All from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 49.7% to Trump 40.4% to Johnson 5.1% to Stein 2.9%
  • 16:34:17 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 59.8% to Trump 33.1% https://t.co/oGiqZVpd0C
  • 16:34:22 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 59.8% to Trump 33.1% to Johnson 3.9% to Stein 1.6%
  • 16:36:53 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 57.7% to Trump 32.6% https://t.co/IWERlSPY3Q
  • 16:36:58 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 57.7% to Trump 32.6% to Johnson 5.5% to Stein 2.5%
  • 16:38:54 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.6% to Trump 41.9% https://t.co/WHP0gC6vkH
  • 16:38:59 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.6% to Trump 41.9% to Johnson 5.5% to Stein 2.3%
  • 16:41:12 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.6% to Trump 41.3% https://t.co/iXJxbRMJTl
  • 16:41:17 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.6% to Trump 41.3% to Johnson 6.0% to Stein 1.9%
  • 16:45:20 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MS from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 45.4% to Trump 47.7% https://t.co/VDzslg7oB2
  • 16:45:25 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MS from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 45.4% to Trump 47.7% to Johnson 4.0% to Stein 1.2%
  • 16:47:44 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MO from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 40.5% to Trump 49.2% https://t.co/m2fybhjnJ8
  • 16:47:48 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MO from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 40.5% to Trump 49.2% to Johnson 6.2% to Stein 2.1%
  • 16:49:27 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 35.5% to Trump 51.4% https://t.co/zu6UCXrDGL
  • 16:49:32 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 35.5% to Trump 51.4% to Johnson 8.1% to Stein 1.9%
  • 16:51:37 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NE-All from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 52.4% https://t.co/PhGrvVXYxM
  • 16:51:42 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NE-All from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 52.4% to Johnson 7.1% to Stein 1.6%
  • 16:54:23 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 46.4% to Trump 42.3% https://t.co/GiHnvDkpoO
  • 16:54:28 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 46.4% to Trump 42.3% to Johnson 7.3% to Stein 1.6%
  • 16:56:32 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NH from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 47.5% to Trump 40.6% https://t.co/DI3Mzsui8T
  • 16:56:37 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NH from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 47.5% to Trump 40.6% to Johnson 7.1% to Stein 2.6%
  • 16:59:07 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NJ from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 54.6% to Trump 38.0% https://t.co/ZisHhdbazW
  • 17:00:29 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NJ from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 54.6% to Trump 38.0% to Johnson 4.1% to Stein 1.6%
  • 17:00:54 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NM from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 49.5% to Trump 37.3% https://t.co/LetFwYhAPM
  • 17:00:59 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NM from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 49.5% to Trump 37.3% to Johnson 8.3% to Stein 2.5%
  • 17:03:59 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 57.9% to Trump 34.3% https://t.co/Aufhx2zoVy
  • 17:04:04 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 57.9% to Trump 34.3% to Johnson 4.0% to Stein 2.2%
  • 17:06:01 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.0% to Trump 44.0% https://t.co/2xGYrwpkJG
  • 17:06:06 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.0% to Trump 44.0% to Johnson 4.9% to Stein 1.0%
  • 17:07:39 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in ND from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 34.2% to Trump 52.9% https://t.co/CMdJtotMOu
  • 17:07:44 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in ND from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 34.2% to Trump 52.9% to Johnson 7.6% to Stein 2.6%
  • 17:10:11 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in OH from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 47.7% to Trump 44.0% https://t.co/pLT0Gy4R0H
  • 17:10:16 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in OH from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 47.7% to Trump 44.0% to Johnson 4.8% to Stein 1.6%
  • 17:12:13 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in OK from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 33.0% to Trump 55.9% https://t.co/5636Prr1d0
  • 17:12:18 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in OK from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 33.0% to Trump 55.9% to Johnson 6.9% to Stein 1.4%
  • 17:15:25 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in OR from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 49.7% to Trump 39.2% https://t.co/lhe6Me6fu3
  • 17:15:30 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in OR from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 49.7% to Trump 39.2% to Johnson 6.3% to Stein 3.0%
  • 17:18:36 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in PA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 47.0% to Trump 44.5% https://t.co/BvFq9ry51T
  • 17:18:41 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in PA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 47.0% to Trump 44.5% to Johnson 4.9% to Stein 1.8%
  • 17:21:34 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in RI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 57.8% to Trump 32.4% https://t.co/xULn0SGT53
  • 17:21:39 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in RI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 57.8% to Trump 32.4% to Johnson 5.2% to Stein 2.7%
  • 17:24:22 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in SC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 43.0% to Trump 48.4% https://t.co/0g1Irc0us5
  • 17:24:27 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in SC from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 43.0% to Trump 48.4% to Johnson 5.0% to Stein 1.3%
  • 17:26:39 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in SD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 34.3% to Trump 53.4% https://t.co/LOBNwufY6o
  • 17:26:44 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in SD from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 34.3% to Trump 53.4% to Johnson 7.8% to Stein 1.8%
  • 17:29:10 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in TN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 37.0% to Trump 54.1% https://t.co/vdNthUWjxH
  • 17:29:15 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in TN from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 37.0% to Trump 54.1% to Johnson 5.7% to Stein 1.4%
  • 17:32:28 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in TX from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 49.0% https://t.co/s3BRfzZDDN
  • 17:32:33 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in TX from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 49.0% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 1.7%
  • 17:34:08 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in UT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 29.7% to Trump 46.7% https://t.co/Kl1k6mLz5I
  • 17:34:13 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in UT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 29.7% to Trump 46.7% to Johnson 11.8% to Stein 1.6%
  • 17:36:42 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in VT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 58.7% to Trump 30.2% https://t.co/F8byVpJB4C
  • 17:36:47 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in VT from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 58.7% to Trump 30.2% to Johnson 5.9% to Stein 3.4%
  • 17:39:29 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in VA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 50.4% to Trump 40.0% to Johnson 5.8% to Stein 1.3%
  • 17:40:44 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in VA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 50.4% to Trump 40.0% https://t.co/ABQEO4Sr5j
  • 17:41:07 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 51.9% to Trump 35.6% https://t.co/DHmANvomE6
  • 17:41:12 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WA from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 51.9% to Trump 35.6% to Johnson 7.7% to Stein 2.9%
  • 17:44:03 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 31.5% to Trump 57.0% https://t.co/hApMVCaCcw
  • 17:44:08 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WV from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 31.5% to Trump 57.0% to Johnson 6.7% to Stein 1.8%
  • 17:46:27 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.8% to Trump 42.2% https://t.co/oOK9VMqH1b
  • 17:46:32 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WI from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 48.8% to Trump 42.2% to Johnson 4.9% to Stein 2.0%
  • 17:48:00 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 27.9% to Trump 59.0% https://t.co/XnZssk2ir6
  • 17:48:05 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WY from 2016-10-02 to 2016-10-15 – Clinton 27.9% to Trump 59.0% to Johnson 7.9% to Stein 1.5%
  • 19:09:39 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in AL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 39.1% to Trump 51.4% https://t.co/4v2G9o5HTU
  • 19:09:44 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in AL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 39.1% to Trump 51.4% to Johnson 5.7% to Stein 1.4%
  • 19:12:39 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in AK from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 35.3% to Trump 48.5% https://t.co/CzYMCKZLKu
  • 19:12:44 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in AK from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 35.3% to Trump 48.5% to Johnson 8.6% to Stein 3.8%
  • 19:15:57 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in AZ from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 47.0% https://t.co/0XqgloutQy
  • 19:16:02 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in AZ from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.0% to Trump 47.0% to Johnson 6.3% to Stein 2.0%
  • 19:17:43 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in AR from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 52.2% https://t.co/CJsPOLzxKk
  • 19:17:48 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in AR from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 36.5% to Trump 52.2% to Johnson 5.8% to Stein 2.3%
  • 19:20:05 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in CA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 56.6% to Trump 33.3% https://t.co/8Bxy53bTLT
  • 19:20:10 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in CA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 56.6% to Trump 33.3% to Johnson 4.5% to Stein 3.5%
  • 19:21:55 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in CO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 42.3% https://t.co/PLKP6j0Ijs
  • 19:22:00 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in CO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.9% to Trump 42.3% to Johnson 6.3% to Stein 2.2%
  • 19:25:09 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in CT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 52.7% to Trump 38.6% https://t.co/NMdeOSFkR3
  • 19:25:14 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in CT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 52.7% to Trump 38.6% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 2.1%
  • 19:26:55 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in DE from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 51.6% to Trump 40.5% https://t.co/VNwVLzY9hL
  • 19:27:00 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in DE from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 51.6% to Trump 40.5% to Johnson 4.2% to Stein 2.0%
  • 19:29:09 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in DC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 83.4% to Trump 9.7% https://t.co/zxIB1gIoNv
  • 19:29:14 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in DC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 83.4% to Trump 9.7% to Johnson 3.1% to Stein 2.2%
  • 19:32:21 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in FL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.1% to Trump 46.0% https://t.co/NPT4cyahPb
  • 19:32:26 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in FL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.1% to Trump 46.0% to Johnson 3.1% to Stein 1.2%
  • 19:34:36 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in GA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 47.1% to Trump 45.9% https://t.co/QdNitkBsWE
  • 19:34:41 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in GA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 47.1% to Trump 45.9% to Johnson 3.9% to Stein 1.0%
  • 19:37:19 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in HI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 60.3% to Trump 30.1% https://t.co/CrGeg4nzI2
  • 19:37:24 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in HI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 60.3% to Trump 30.1% to Johnson 4.2% to Stein 3.1%
  • 19:39:07 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in ID from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 31.0% to Trump 54.7% https://t.co/tBWyTtZr9t
  • 19:39:12 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in ID from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 31.0% to Trump 54.7% to Johnson 5.7% to Stein 2.4%
  • 19:41:22 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in IL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 53.2% to Trump 36.9% https://t.co/fxo5APVtmo
  • 19:41:27 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in IL from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 53.2% to Trump 36.9% to Johnson 5.0% to Stein 2.7%
  • 19:43:53 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in IN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 39.0% to Trump 50.3% https://t.co/CfSOTJwHc7
  • 19:43:58 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in IN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 39.0% to Trump 50.3% to Johnson 6.2% to Stein 1.4%
  • 19:44:17 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IN has moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/CfSOTJwHc7
  • 20:05:56 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 407 to Trump 131 -> Clinton 396 to Trump 142 https://t.co/k8esN6lFrO
  • 20:58:22 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in IA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.0% to Trump 42.9% https://t.co/qzFE2pt97Y
  • 20:58:27 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in IA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.0% to Trump 42.9% to Johnson 6.6% to Stein 2.2%
  • 21:00:25 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in KS from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 35.3% to Trump 53.5% https://t.co/qDLDL4RtE9
  • 21:00:30 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in KS from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 35.3% to Trump 53.5% to Johnson 6.2% to Stein 2.2%
  • 21:02:42 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in KY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 36.1% to Trump 54.9% https://t.co/jny8ktAcgZ
  • 21:02:47 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in KY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 36.1% to Trump 54.9% to Johnson 5.1% to Stein 1.5%
  • 21:06:03 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in LA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 48.3% https://t.co/XHwjVlUn7a
  • 21:06:08 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in LA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 48.3% to Johnson 5.3% to Stein 1.5%
  • 21:08:20 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in ME-All from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 47.9% to Trump 42.2% https://t.co/pDoRSSzSn7
  • 21:08:24 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in ME-All from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 47.9% to Trump 42.2% to Johnson 4.7% to Stein 3.3%
  • 21:14:29 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MD from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 59.4% to Trump 33.2% https://t.co/Z7vDGY3fIU
  • 21:14:34 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MD from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 59.4% to Trump 33.2% to Johnson 3.6% to Stein 1.9%
  • 21:16:16 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 56.0% to Trump 33.2% https://t.co/MYuGJBXtzW
  • 21:16:21 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 56.0% to Trump 33.2% to Johnson 6.1% to Stein 3.0%
  • 21:18:13 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 49.3% to Trump 42.4% https://t.co/gY7FwmtTAg
  • 21:18:18 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 49.3% to Trump 42.4% to Johnson 4.8% to Stein 1.9%
  • 21:20:40 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.4% to Trump 41.8% https://t.co/OiSpcsXWYE
  • 21:20:45 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.4% to Trump 41.8% to Johnson 5.6% to Stein 1.8%
  • 21:23:32 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MS from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 44.9% to Trump 48.1% https://t.co/RwdNyZmmfh
  • 21:23:37 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MS from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 44.9% to Trump 48.1% to Johnson 3.6% to Stein 1.5%
  • 21:25:23 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 39.3% to Trump 49.9% https://t.co/BVQ579aK6v
  • 21:25:28 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MO from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 39.3% to Trump 49.9% to Johnson 6.3% to Stein 2.2%
  • 21:25:46 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MO has moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/BVQ579aK6v
  • 21:55:03 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 396 to Trump 142 -> Clinton 386 to Trump 152 https://t.co/M6lt6vXSxk
  • 22:04:47 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in MT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 37.4% to Trump 51.1% https://t.co/ShWnQwmNeA
  • 22:04:53 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in MT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 37.4% to Trump 51.1% to Johnson 6.6% to Stein 2.2%
  • 22:06:36 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NE-All from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 34.1% to Trump 54.6% https://t.co/5jnLA5XRgI
  • 22:06:41 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NE-All from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 34.1% to Trump 54.6% to Johnson 7.6% to Stein 1.6%
  • 22:09:08 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NV from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.8% to Trump 44.6% https://t.co/exAzf6G5ri
  • 22:09:13 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NV from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.8% to Trump 44.6% to Johnson 5.6% to Stein 1.5%
  • 22:10:50 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.2% to Trump 41.6% https://t.co/9pKFmfRVEd
  • 22:10:55 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.2% to Trump 41.6% to Johnson 4.8% to Stein 1.9%
  • 22:11:10 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NH has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/9pKFmfRVEd
  • 22:14:00 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NJ from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 54.5% to Trump 37.8% https://t.co/v1MGAoX0fD
  • 22:14:05 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NJ from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 54.5% to Trump 37.8% to Johnson 4.0% to Stein 1.8%
  • 22:15:56 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NM from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 36.3% https://t.co/xpCmFMGVUj
  • 22:16:01 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NM from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.7% to Trump 36.3% to Johnson 9.5% to Stein 2.8%
  • 22:18:55 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 58.2% to Trump 33.7% https://t.co/3s4mPa6dd8
  • 22:19:00 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 58.2% to Trump 33.7% to Johnson 3.6% to Stein 2.4%
  • 22:20:52 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in NC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 44.7% https://t.co/VdWDLzbBJX
  • 22:20:57 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in NC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 44.7% to Johnson 4.0% to Stein 1.0%
  • 22:22:40 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in ND from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 33.1% to Trump 53.6% https://t.co/5WuTuqpxZD
  • 22:22:46 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in ND from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 33.1% to Trump 53.6% to Johnson 7.9% to Stein 2.5%
  • 22:25:13 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.7% to Trump 45.3% https://t.co/SOGhckYOeo
  • 22:25:18 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in OH from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.7% to Trump 45.3% to Johnson 4.7% to Stein 1.7%
  • 22:27:02 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in OK from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 32.2% to Trump 57.6% https://t.co/tIeYgOZYin
  • 22:27:07 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in OK from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 32.2% to Trump 57.6% to Johnson 6.2% to Stein 1.4%
  • 22:28:46 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in OR from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 49.3% to Trump 39.0% https://t.co/qyh2JpfZMm
  • 22:28:51 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in OR from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 49.3% to Trump 39.0% to Johnson 6.0% to Stein 3.5%
  • 22:30:49 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in PA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.6% to Trump 45.5% https://t.co/QjF5M8Vyut
  • 22:30:54 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in PA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 46.6% to Trump 45.5% to Johnson 1.6% to Stein 1.9%
  • 22:31:09 Clinton vs Trump state category change: PA has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/QjF5M8Vyut
  • 22:55:20 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 5.1% in PA -> Clinton by 4.1% in PA https://t.co/oirmDn1Ppm
  • 22:55:21 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 272 to Trump 266 -> Clinton 252 to Trump 286 https://t.co/oirmDn1Ppm
  • 22:58:10 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in RI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 57.6% to Trump 33.6% https://t.co/W3pYJ5QlnK
  • 22:58:15 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in RI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 57.6% to Trump 33.6% to Johnson 4.2% to Stein 2.9%
  • 22:59:53 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in SC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 48.8% https://t.co/wGDkpngILT
  • 22:59:58 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in SC from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 48.8% to Johnson 4.3% to Stein 1.9%
  • 23:01:48 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in SD from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 34.3% to Trump 54.9% https://t.co/dtqQ8eCQmU
  • 23:01:52 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in SD from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 34.3% to Trump 54.9% to Johnson 6.3% to Stein 2.0%
  • 23:03:40 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in TN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 37.0% to Trump 54.1% https://t.co/qIISfP64M4
  • 23:03:45 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in TN from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 37.0% to Trump 54.1% to Johnson 5.4% to Stein 1.5%
  • 23:06:08 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in TX from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 48.7% https://t.co/g6tBd3vDUF
  • 23:06:13 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in TX from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 48.7% to Johnson 4.9% to Stein 1.7%
  • 23:09:13 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in UT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 28.0% to Trump 45.6% https://t.co/ldejr7KFQE
  • 23:09:18 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in UT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 28.0% to Trump 45.6% to Johnson 8.5% to Stein 7.8%
  • 23:11:20 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in VT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 57.5% to Trump 30.0% https://t.co/EWM1GqxlGh
  • 23:11:25 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in VT from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 57.5% to Trump 30.0% to Johnson 5.5% to Stein 5.0%
  • 23:14:16 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in VA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 50.1% to Trump 40.9% https://t.co/J2CrBiOMMI
  • 23:14:21 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in VA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 50.1% to Trump 40.9% to Johnson 4.9% to Stein 1.4%
  • 23:15:57 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 50.6% to Trump 37.3% https://t.co/3WCwjgZoYd
  • 23:16:02 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WA from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 50.6% to Trump 37.3% to Johnson 6.0% to Stein 3.2%
  • 23:17:52 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WV from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 30.3% to Trump 59.0% https://t.co/U5iBGeueLF
  • 23:17:57 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WV from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 30.3% to Trump 59.0% to Johnson 6.1% to Stein 2.2%
  • 23:19:47 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 47.7% to Trump 43.7% https://t.co/sMbczPh88P
  • 23:19:52 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WI from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 47.7% to Trump 43.7% to Johnson 4.8% to Stein 1.7%
  • 23:21:26 Poll Added: YouGov EM w/4P in WY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 29.1% to Trump 58.3% https://t.co/XJax8NvAAh
  • 23:21:31 Full 4P results: YouGov EM w/4P in WY from 2016-10-09 to 2016-10-22 – Clinton 29.1% to Trump 58.3% to Johnson 7.2% to Stein 1.8%
  • 23:33:06 Long round of poll additions now done. All 50 states plus Maine CDs. Lots of notable changes. Blog post for @ElectionGraphs later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-10-25 (UTC)