2016 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-06 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 18:52 UTC

Earned EC: Trump 306, Clinton 232

Actual EC: Trump 304, Clinton 227, Powell 3, Kasich 1, Paul 1, Sanders 1, Spotted Eagle 1

Post Mortem Analysis here

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Summary Comparisons

 
ClintonTrumpMargin
Trump Best236302Trump by 66
Expected273265Clinton by 8
Clinton Best374164Clinton by 210
The tipping point state is PA where Clinton is ahead by 1.6%.
Clinton vs Trump Summary

ClintonBushMargin
Bush Best217321Bush by 104
Expected341197Clinton by 144
Clinton Best347191Clinton by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Clinton is ahead by 2.0%.
Clinton vs Bush Summary

ClintonCruzMargin
Cruz Best273265Clinton by 8
Expected332206Clinton by 126
Clinton Best371167Clinton by 204
The tipping point state is VA where Clinton is ahead by 5.4%.
Clinton vs Cruz Summary

ClintonRubioMargin
Rubio Best191347Rubio by 156
Expected259279Rubio by 20
Clinton Best332206Clinton by 126
The tipping point state is PA where Rubio is ahead by 0.8%.
Clinton vs Rubio Summary

ClintonHuckabeeMargin
Huckabee Best311227Clinton by 84
Expected332206Clinton by 126
Clinton Best347191Clinton by 156
The tipping point state is OH where Clinton is ahead by 8.2%.
Clinton vs Huckabee Summary
 

The 'Expected' scenario represents each candiate winning all the states they are ahead in. 'Best' scenarios represent the candidate winning all of the states they are ahead in, plus all of their opponent's 'weak' states.

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

 

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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