New Poll in Virginia. It moves my "last 5 poll average" such that Virginia goes from "Leaning McCain" to "Weak McCain". This means we now only have 13 states and 154 electoral votes in the "up for grabs" leaning categories as Virginia is now more solidly in the McCain camp.
If everybody gets their leaning states, and Obama gets DC, then McCain would win 283 to 255.
But allowing for the full possible swing of the leaning votes... and generously thinking that DC could go either way since we have no polls (even though we all know DC will go Dem) this gives us:
McCain best case: McCain 330, Obama 208
Obama best case: Obama 362, McCain 176