More bad state by state poll news for Obama. Colorado slips from "Weak Obama" to "Lean Obama" putting it in that "could really go either way" category. This improves McCain's best case numbers.
McCain Best Case - McCain 352, Obama 186
Obama Best Case - Obama 308, McCain 230
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) - Obama 281, McCain 257
Notice how much better McCain's best case is than Obama's best case. Even though the "every body gets their leans" number is in Obama's favor at the moment, the range of possible outcomes here gives many more ways for McCain to win than Obama has.
If you were forced to pick a winner today based on current polls, it would almost certainly be McCain. Of course, we have many months to go, and a "bounce" is expected whenever the Democrats finally pick a nominee. But still...