A new poll moves my "last five polls average" for Michigan from Leaning Obama to Leaning McCain.
At the moment there are 123 electoral votes worth of states in the "leaning" category, meaning that in reality they could easily go either way. However, of those, at the moment 91 electoral votes worth are leaning toward McCain, and only 32 are leaning toward Obama. Once Obama can truly be done with this primary season, he has some work to do if he is going to be in a strong position in November.
McCain Best Case - McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case - Obama 330, McCain 208
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) - McCain 299, Obama 239