It has been a full two weeks since there has been any state changing categories in my electoral college calculations. There have been plenty of polls, just not much movement. At least not movement that changed categories. Today brings movement though, and once again it is good news for McCain. This time Obama's lead in Wisconsin drops to below 10%, moving that state from "Strong Obama" to "Weak Obama".
Looking at the trend lines, it seems that the "bounce" Obama got after securing the nomination has indeed peaked. While some news has been mixed, for the most part since mid-July McCain has very gradually taken back some ground.
For the most part though, the race seems to be in the summer doldrums. Not much is changing. Things are just sort of slowly moving forward, with most polls just continuing to confirm that things are still at about the same place.
As we approach the conventions and the end of the summer, I expect we'll start to see some more motion again. But for now, it seems things are relatively static, although moving a tad, just a bit, slowly, in McCain's direction.
Since today's change just moved a strong state to a weak, and didn't change the inventory of leaning swing states at all, the summary remains the same:
McCain Best Case - McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case - Obama 381, McCain 157
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) - Obama 306, McCain 232