For the first time since July 1st a state actually flips from one side to the other. All other recent changes have just been in the level of strength one candidate or another had in a state.
The change on July 1st was Virginia flipping from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. Virginia now flips back to Leaning McCain. Either way, Virginia is a swing state. It is essentially too close to call. At the moment my five poll average actually has McCain ahead by 0.2%. That is close. That is a tossup.
But it does move into McCain's column at this point for the "if everybody gets their leans" count. And this continues a string of good news for McCain. McCain has indeed "shown up" and is in the process of making this a real contest again. Ohio is also very close right now, with Obama with a very slim lead. If McCain manages to flip Ohio as well then we will once again essentially have a tie game.
McCain Best Case - McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case - Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) - Obama 293, McCain 245
Recent trends have all been in McCain's direction. Perhaps it is time for Obama to come back from vacation and start participating again.