Yesterday SurveyUSA put out head to head poll results for Obama vs McCain in all 50 states. (They did the same for Clinton vs McCain, but I'll worry about that when/if she takes the delegate lead.) This means we now have polls for everything... except the District of Columbia, where SurveyUSA didn't bother. Now, I think we all know that DC is about the safest 3 electoral votes the Democrats have, but I'm going to leave it in the "no polls" category until there is actually a poll.
Anyway, my end results differ somewhat from SurveyUSA's because there are a number of states where I had previous poll results and I average the last few of those (up to five) into my results as well. In general this hurt Obama. SurveyUSA makes the race out with Obama winning 280 to 258 (they go ahead and give Obama DC's 3 electoral votes). This includes of course some VERY weak states well within the margin of error.
In any case, my chart comes out a bit different when some of the other polls on some of these states are taken into account. The states where I differ from SurveyUSA are Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. In all four cases SurveyUSA gives them to Obama, but when the earlier poll results get factored in, they slip over to McCain. That is 48 electoral votes moving from one side to another and so of course makes a huge difference.
I won't itemize all the results in all the states here, those who are interested can look at the wiki page.
End result after tons of new states and updates to all the states where I already had polls...
McCain wins 308 to 227. (DC's 3 votes not included, but would not matter.)