This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne, also known as Sam Minter. In addition to the blog below, be sure to check out the other sections of the site above and to the left! IM me on AIM as Abulsme or email me at abulsme@abulsme.com. Comments are always appreciated! Thanks!

 

If you came here from a link on another site, chances are high you are looking for the Electoral College Prediction page.

Thu 20 Nov 2008

Electoral College: Called - Missouri for McCain - That's All Folks







Based on the "Last Updated" time on CNN's election results site, my best estimate for when Missouri was called by CNN is 21:09 UTC yesterday. So consider this to me an update covering the time immediately prior to 21:15 UTC yesterday.

Missouri is called for McCain. This is the last outstanding state.

This makes the results (assuming no faithless electors) Obama 365, McCain 173... which has been what it would look like it would be for quite a bit now, but now it is official. (Well, not really, not until the electoral college votes... but all states have been called by CNN now.)

So, how did I do?

Well, every single state that I did not say was a too close to call swing state, I got right. But lets be a little more critical than that. If you look at my last regular daily update on November 3rd, the "Current Status" where everybody got their leans had Obama 338, McCain 200. What did I miss? I thought McCain would win North Carolina, Indiana and all of Nebraska. Obama of course ended up winning North Carolina, Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd District.

Of these, I had considered both North Carolina and Indiana as too close to call and that they could easily go either way. So not too upset about that. On Nebraska I had decided early on not to look at the possibility of Nebraska splitting unless the state itself looked somewhat close. That seems like an error now. However, I'm not sure what else I would have done, as I did not see regular polling on the separate Nebraska districts anyway.

BUT... there was one more error.... after my last daily update on the 3rd, I continued to log polls as they came in on election day itself, before the real polls started closing. I logged one change early in the day that flipped Missouri to just barely on the Obama side of the line instead of just barely on the McCain side of the line.

So my actual final "everybody gets their leans" prediction was Obama 349, McCain 189 which was actually closer to the actual final result than my final prediction on the 3rd, but only because a couple of the states I got wrong canceled each other out. (Missouri and Indiana both have 11 electoral votes, so when I got them both wrong the total remained the same.)

So, in the end, out of 50 states and DC, I ended up predicting correctly on all except North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and the 2nd district of Nebraska. And my electoral college total was only off by 16. And with the exception of that pesky single electoral vote from Nebraska, all of the states which I "missed" were states that I had actually described as being too close to call.

All and all, I think those are pretty good results. So I am happy with that.

I'll do one more update when I combine the wiki pages for the historical predictions through the race with the pages reflecting actual results and get everything all cleaned up to sit there forever for random people googling about the 2008 race. And then I'll finally be done with this! :-)

Edit 21 Nov 04:06 UTC: Fixed Typo in Obama's actual electoral college vote total (365 instead of 265). Thanks to the reader who pointed this out.


Abulsme - Thu, 20 Nov 2008, 10:20:34 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Sun 16 Nov 2008

Electoral College: Called (Again) - Nebraska Second District







I stopped checking every fifteen minutes many days ago. I even stopped checking every few hours. But I was still checking at least once a day, and at 03:00 UTC today I noted that CNN finally, many days after other news organizations did so, reversed their earlier call, and moved Nebraska's Second Congressional District into Obama's column.

So we now have:

McCain Best Case: Obama 365, McCain 173
Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 376, McCain 162
Obama Best Case: Obama 376, McCain 162

The one remaining state, Missouri, is still officially too close to call. However most analysis I've seen shows it is highly unlikely that Obama will take the state, so of the remaining scenarios, it looks like the "McCain Best Case" is the one likely to happen.

Official results in Missouri are due on Tuesday. It is likely to be close enough that Obama COULD ask for a recount. But he is pretty unlikely to actually bother, as it won't make a difference to the final outcome... other than to potentially put him over the 375 electoral vote line that some people use to define a landslide.


Abulsme - Sun, 16 Nov 2008, 21:36:48 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Sat 08 Nov 2008

Electoral College: Called - North Carolina for Obama







This update reflects states called by CNN in the 15 minutes before 15:30 UTC on November 7th.

There was one state called. North Carolina for Obama. This was the second "surprise" of the season compared to my immediately pre-poll closing predictions. North Carolina had been in the Obama column since the end of September, but had moved to the McCain side right before the election. This makes my record at this point 48 out of 50, with one state left to call.

New summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 364, McCain 174
Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 375, McCain 163
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

I should note however, that although CNN called Nebraska's 2nd District for McCain, and has not yet retracted that on their Election Results Page, many other sources have since called that district for Obama, thus taking an electoral vote away from McCain and giving it to Obama.

I'll keep sticking with CNN's tally here though, although they have been excruciatingly slow after the point Obama reached 270. I think in 4 years I'll have to use a different primary source.

For the moment though, I presume CNN will eventually catch up on the Nebraska electoral vote, and will eventually call Missouri.

Edit Nov 17 05:32 UTC: Corrected Obama numbers in the three scenarios above, which were all missing 3 electoral votes (from Vermont). The numbers above are now correct.


Abulsme - Sat, 8 Nov 2008, 12:44:18 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Wed 05 Nov 2008

Electoral College: Called - Indiana for Obama





This update reflects states that were called by CNN in the 15 minutes before 16:15 UTC.

A number of places called Indiana last night, but CNN just called it now, for Obama. This is the first state which has gone in a different direction than the "everybody gets their leans" numbers as of right before the polls closed. That average had McCain ahead by 3.4%. But Obama wins the state.

The range of possibilities left for the final electoral college count (absent faithless electors) is now very narrow:

McCain Best Case: Obama 349, McCain 189
Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 360, McCain 178
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

North Carolina and Missouri are still too close to call.


Abulsme - Wed, 5 Nov 2008, 08:21:46 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Electoral College: Called - Montana for McCain





This update covers the 15 minutes prior to 08:15 UTC.

Montana gets called for McCain. The range of possible results narrows a bit more.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

If one sticks to one common definition of landslide, namely 375 electoral votes or more, Obama now needs to sweep the remaining three states for this to be a "landslide". Of course, there is no single accepted definition of landslide, and some people will be calling this such regardless.

Still waiting on North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. Still no deviations from the predictions this site had with the "everybody gets their leans" line immediately before the polls closed.

Of course, various places are now calling Indiana for Obama. If CNN eventually decides to agree, that will be the first deviation from predictions, as the five poll average here had McCain again by 3.4% heading into the election.

Edit 09:24 UTC - Added the slug about the time the update covered, which I had forgotten when I originally posted.

Edit 15:15 UTC - A reader pointed out that Iowa was the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page and on this post but not on the two older posts that were effected. (Although I have added notes on those posts about the error.) Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.


Abulsme - Wed, 5 Nov 2008, 00:22:41 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Tue 04 Nov 2008

Electoral College: Called - Nebraska (Omaha District) for McCain





This is an update covering the 15 minutes before 07:30 UTC.

CNN has now called the 1 electoral vote for the Omaha district of Nebraska. It joins the rest of the state and goes for McCain.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprises. Four states still outstanding. North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Montana have yet to be called.

Edit 15:15 UTC - A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.


Abulsme - Tue, 4 Nov 2008, 23:36:13 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Electoral College: Called - Alaska





This is the 06:45 UTC update, reflecting states that were called in the 15 minutes before that time.

Just one. Alaska, as expected, was called for Sarah Palin... uh... John McCain.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprise states. North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, and the Omaha district of Nebraska yet to be called.

(I made a correction to the 04:45 update at 06:03 UTC to reflect the fact that 1 of Nebraska's electoral votes had not yet been called. The graphs have been corrected accordingly.)

Edit 15:15 UTC - A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.


Abulsme - Tue, 4 Nov 2008, 22:57:53 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Electoral College: Called - South Dakota, Nebraska and Nevada





This is the 04:45 UTC update, covering states that were called in the 15 minutes before that.

South Dakota and Nebraska for McCain.

Nevada for Obama.

I'l drop the "SuperBest" estimates from the summary, as there are no longer any uncalled "Weak" states.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200

Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

There have still been no surprise states.

I am now once again caught up with all the states CNN has called. There are still five states yet to be called. Alaska, which should go McCain. And then North Carolina, Indiana and Montana which are leaning McCain. And finally Missouri which was leaning Obama.

We'll see if any of those end up being surprises. North Carolina and Missouri were both within a percent as of the last polls. If there is a surprise, I would guess it would be one of those two states. But Indiana or Montana switching would also be well within the realm of possibility.

So far my final predictions from right before the polls closed are 46 for 46. We'll see how the last 5 states go. :-)

Edit 06:03 UTC - Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of the 5 electoral votes for Nebraska. Looks like that 1 electoral vote (probably Omaha) is still too close to call. Gotta love the states that split their votes.

Edit 15:15 UTC - A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.


Abulsme - Tue, 4 Nov 2008, 21:26:54 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Electoral College: Called - Arizona, Colorado and Florida





This is the 04:30 update, covering states called in the 15 minutes prior to that time.

Three states called. Arizona for McCain. Colorado and Florida for Obama.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 333, McCain 205
McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200

Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160
Obama SuperBest: Obama 378, McCain 160

There have still been no surprise states.


Abulsme - Tue, 4 Nov 2008, 21:07:14 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]

Electoral College: Called - CA, OR, WA, HI, ID - Pushed Obama Over 270





This is the 04:15 UTC update, covering the states that were called in the 15 minutes previous to that time.

These are the states that pushed Obama over the top. All were "Strong" states.

California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii for Obama.
Idaho for McCain.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 297, McCain 241
McCain Best Case: Obama 311, McCain 227

Current "everybody gets their leans": Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 388, McCain 150

Still no surprises.


Abulsme - Tue, 4 Nov 2008, 20:51:42 PST - ElecColl
Permalink and Comments [0 comments]
  NEXT page


MEMBERS

<September 2014
S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ABULWIKI

AbulWiki Home
Sam Geneology
Amy Geneology
Recent Changes
Random Wiki Page
Electoral College Prediction

OLD STUFF

True Binary Clock
Al/Kim Wedding
Pets and People
Home Movies
Old Pictures
Old Graphs
Volleyball
Resume
Fitness
Books

ARCHIVES

August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003

ARCHIVE SUMMARY

View by Date

View by Category

Advanced search

PEOPLE WHO EMAIL ME A LOT AND HAVE WEBSITES

Al Michael
Ron Adams
Robert Pavia
Chris Morrow
William Minter
Brandy Donaghy
Greg Haverkamp
Rebecca Livingston

SITES I READ A LOT

Boing Boing Gadgets
Talking Points Memo
Huffington Post
DemConWatch
The Daily Dish
Boing Boing
Instapundit
Neatorama
The Corner
Facebook
Engadget
Daily Kos
Seattlest
Gizmodo
Yglesias
TUAW
Digg
Fark
Slog
io9
Listed on BlogShares Powered by pMachine XML

STATS

Total entries: 2517
Total comments: 1895
Total members: 37