Electoral College: NC Weakens for McCain and Swings Again

Only one change today. North Carolina, which had flipped from being a swing state to being "Weak McCain" in the wake of the Republican Convention, now drops to below a 5% lead for McCain, and the state once again becomes a "Lean McCain" state and is in play as a swing state again.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case - McCain 331, Obama 207
Obama Best Case - Obama 378, McCain 160

If everybody gets their leans - 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE

OK, NOW can we say the McCain bounce is over? I think we can certainly say that McCain seems to have peaked. The downside of the bounce is more complicated though. There is a clear pattern in what has happened so far. What we have been seeing is that "Weak McCain" states have been softening into "Lean McCain" states, perhaps putting them in play for Obama. This reverses SOME of what McCain achieved in his bounce.

Not all though. During the bounce, several states also moved out of "Weak Obama" status into "Lean Obama". Those states have not yet returned to the Obama fold. They are still swing states.

And the "everybody gets their leans" number is still stuck stubbornly on a dead even tie.

So the overall result of the last few weeks has simply been to put more states in play. We now have 14 states and 171 electoral votes in the swing states that are too close to call. That is a huge amount. This race is still very very unsettled.

The momentum toward McCain has definitely been reversed. But to see a real benefit out of it, Obama needs to start pulling Lean McCain states to Lean Obama states and Lean Obama states to Weak Obama. We've seen lots of movement from Weak McCain to Lean McCain, but in the end, that isn't enough. It just makes the "anything could happen" factor larger.

Having said that, McCain should be somewhat troubled. The big effect of the convention and Palin looked like it had been to strengthen the base and make red states redder. That seems to be fading.

Cinema: Traitor

Brandy and Amy wanted to take me to a movie for my birthday last weekend. So I picked one based completely on what I wanted to see, as opposed to also taking into consideration what all of us might like. So I picked this one.

I hadn't seen the commercials for the movie until after the movie, which is good, because they spoil a major item which is supposed to be a mystery and tell you right up front. But I was unspoiled. I still guessed the item in question of course, it wasn't that hard, but still.

In any case, this is a slowly paced movie. Some of the descriptions have it as a suspense/action sort of thing, but not really. It is really one of those slow paced political thrillers that is more about making you think than raising your heart rate. And yes, it has a political point to make, and it makes it.

Overall I liked it. I was also surprised to find that both Brandy and Amy liked it as well. Given the pacing I thought Amy at least would just be horribly bored. But no. Which is good. It means I get to watch more of this kind of movie in the future.

In any case. Good movie. Worth a watch. Probably will not be in the theaters very long, so if you want to see it there, hurry. Otherwise, wait for DVD.

No Surprise Here

An interesting variant on the versions of this kind of test I've seen in the past, but with the same overall results when I take it:

You are a Social Liberal (78% permissive) and an... Economic Conservative (75% permissive) You are best described as a: Libertarian Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid Also : The OkCupid Dating Persona Test

Yes, Of Course They Are

I just got one after finally giving up on waiting for a 32GB version and giving up on bitching about home activation, so of course they are going to. Any day now, I'm sure.

Apple prepping a 32GB iPhone update, bringing back at-home activation?
(Nilay Patel, Engadget, 20 Sep 2008)

We're not particularly inclined to believe them, but the whispers that Apple is about to bump the top-end iPhone capacity to 32GB are getting harder to ignore -- especially since 8GB inventory is drying up, leading to speculation that's it's going to be dropped as soon as next week.

...

AppleInsider also says customers will once again get the option to activate in-home, but we haven't heard anything about that -- we'll see what happens in the next few days.