Abulsme.com

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-24 (UTC)

15:26:45 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 15:26:20 That’s all for today. Poll data added for SC/UT/MO/FL/NM. Significant change in SC/FL, so there will be an @ElectionGraphs blog post later.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-24 (UTC)

13:57:30 Poll Added: Feldman w/4P in SC from 2016-08-18 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 39% to Trump 39% https://t.co/1wC53QzD8u
13:57:35 Full 4P results logged: Feldman w/4P in SC from 2016-08-18 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 39% to Trump 39% to Johnson ?% to Stein ?%
13:57:46 Clinton vs Trump state category change: SC has moved from Strong Trump to Weak Trump https://t.co/1wC53QRe02
14:06:28 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 384 to Trump 154 -> Clinton 393 to Trump 145 https://t.co/1C6Po6kPLM
14:16:32 Poll Added: Feldman in SC from 2016-08-18 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 43% to Trump 45% https://t.co/O6AakoHvyN
14:22:23 Poll Added: PPP w/4P in UT from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 24% to Trump 39% https://t.co/LisREEgZve
14:22:28 Full 4P results logged: PPP w/4P in UT from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 24% to Trump 39% to Johnson 12% to Stein 1%
14:23:22 Note that last PPP poll was actually a 6P poll. It also included McMullin at 9% and Castle at 2%.
14:24:27 Poll Added: PPP in UT from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 33% to Trump 53% https://t.co/U4jbbBBSkf
14:24:36 Clinton vs Trump state category change: UT has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/U4jbbBBSkf
14:31:31 Poll Added: Monmouth w/3P in MO from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-22 – Clinton 43% to Trump 44% https://t.co/s1UMjgUwxs
14:31:36 Full 3P results logged: Monmouth w/3P in MO from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-22 – Clinton 43% to Trump 44% to Johnson 8%
14:36:25 Poll Added: FAU w/3P in FL from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-22 – Clinton 41% to Trump 43% https://t.co/OKIPjkEtNE
14:36:30 Full 3P results logged: FAU w/3P in FL from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-22 – Clinton 41% to Trump 43% to Johnson 8%
14:40:02 Poll Added: PPP w/4P in NM from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 40% to Trump 31% https://t.co/KXoKMnL0zQ
14:40:07 Full 4P results logged: PPP w/4P in NM from 2016-08-19 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 40% to Trump 31% to Johnson 16% to Stein 4%
14:58:34 Poll Added: St Leo w/4P in FL from 2016-08-14 to 2016-08-18 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 33.8% https://t.co/9WuF5exvZh
14:58:39 Full 4P results logged: St Leo w/4P in FL from 2016-08-14 to 2016-08-18 – Clinton 48.3% to Trump 33.8% to Johnson 6.4% to Stein 1.6%
14:58:46 Clinton vs Trump state category change: FL has moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/9WuF5exvZh
15:06:29 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 273 to Trump 265 -> Clinton 302 to Trump 236 https://t.co/OuFIJ2npF1
15:13:28 Poll Added: St Leo w/Lean w/4P in FL from 2016-08-14 to 2016-08-18 – Clinton 51.7% to Trump 37.7% https://t.co/JVn1eeWTiU
15:13:33 Full 4P results logged: St Leo w/Lean w/4P in FL from 2016-08-14 to 2016-08-18 – Clinton 51.7% to Trump 37.7% to Johnson 8.3% to Stein 2.4%
15:21:24 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 6 in CT -> Clinton by 8.1 in FL https://t.co/EH0Kqc2NOn
15:26:20 That’s all for today. Poll data added for SC/UT/MO/FL/NM. Significant change in SC/FL, so there will be an @ElectionGraphs blog post later.
15:32:22 Retweeted @NHLaVa 15:05:41 @ElecCollPolls With the new poll showing Trump up 2 in FL? in reply to ElecCollPolls
15:33:23 .@NHLaVa Yes. There was also the St Leo poll showing Clinton up by 14. Wide variance, but average Strong Clinton. in reply to NHLaVa
15:33:46 Retweeted @NHLaVa 15:07:18 How is this possible with two other polls coming out showing Trump up 2 in one and down 3 in the other? https://t.co/kd6UcoNAwF
15:34:44 .@NHLaVa It is quite possible both the poll showing Trump up 2, and the one showing Clinton up 14 are outliers. That’s why we average. :-) in reply to NHLaVa

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-24 (UTC)

01:46:38 Listening to MacBreak Weekly (MP3) MBW 520: Brick Time is Over
via iCatcher! https://t.co/P6lRP3aC85
02:22:23 Retweeted @davidsirota 02:15:21 Dems on my Trump story: quid pro quo! https://t.co/uOSPzfoOFA
Dems on my similar Clinton story: no quid pro quo! https://t.co/bPAywI3oSM
02:57:49 Reading – Black man shot by cops after calling to report robbery – NY Daily News (Shaun King) https://t.co/hMO8cAo6EY
03:05:32 Retweeted @reidepstein 02:13:06 Trump tells Hannity getting new laws passed is hard. "If you start going around trying to make new laws in this country, its brutal."
13:38:09 Reading – Seattle elephant Bamboo attacked, bitten at new home in Oklahoma (Sandi Doughton) https://t.co/y3XzuTjETv
15:26:32 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 15:26:20 That’s all for today. Poll data added for SC/UT/MO/FL/NM. Significant change in SC/FL, so there will be an @ElectionGraphs blog post later.
16:37:59 Yup -> The AP’s big exposГ© on Hillary meeting with Clinton Foundation donors is a mess (@mattyglesias) https://t.co/AE0PyrwTln
17:19:47 Reading – Earth-mass Planet Found In The Habitable Zone Of Proxima Centauri (ESO) https://t.co/DwkHNAFzZ0
18:05:14 Listening to Washington Week Podcast | PBS Trump shakes up campaign staff and expresses "regret" for past comments https://t.co/cbQ3KGKHn5
19:49:34 Retweeted @billmon1 19:42:00 Apologies. The @voxdotcom fisking, fisked.
Thread –>
https://t.co/uPvJDZbci9
23:55:41 Watching – CharityWatch gives Clinton Foundation an 'A' rating (CNN) https://t.co/0s7TSHCjJF

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-23 (UTC)

14:41:19 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 14:41:03 That’s all for today’s round of new data. New polls in OH/VA. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-23 (UTC)

14:05:11 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in OH from 2016-08-18 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 43% to Trump 39% https://t.co/GfX6iLiJf5
14:05:16 Full 4P results logged: Monmouth w/4P in OH from 2016-08-18 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 43% to Trump 39% to Johnson 10% to Stein 0%
14:08:17 Poll Added: Monmouth in OH from 2016-08-18 to 2016-08-21 – Clinton 33% to Kasich 57% https://t.co/LGILoAmJX7
14:16:06 Poll Added: Roanoke w/4P in VA from 2016-08-07 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 48% to Trump 32% https://t.co/Xee0B2A85d
14:16:08 Full 4P results logged: Roanoke w/4P in VA from 2016-08-07 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 48% to Trump 32% to Johnson 8% to Stein 3%
14:18:34 Poll Added: Roanoke in VA from 2016-08-07 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 55% to Trump 36% https://t.co/LCMs5va5j7
14:41:03 That’s all for today’s round of new data. New polls in OH/VA. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-23 (UTC)

00:30:31 Reading – The Secret Behind Trump's Comically Bad Digital Campaign? (@joshtpm) https://t.co/1U7UkMjwBq
00:40:53 Reading – Trumpism is a Politics of Loss and Revenge (@joshtpm) https://t.co/SPZ0KHOKUt
00:57:11 The end of Gawker -> How Things Work (Nick Denton) https://t.co/zafvx7YC9o
01:01:35 Retweeted @NinjaEconomics 00:21:07 Here's @Gawker's latest foray into revisionist fabulism, fact-checked by @seanmdav: https://t.co/SGyKfbJVZZ
01:16:53 Reading – Never Mind Peter Thiel. Gawker Killed Itself. (@simondumenco) https://t.co/rjPUbGkeRC
01:49:58 Listening to Don't expect the new Apple Watch to get cellular data (Apple Byte Extra Crunchy Podcast, Ep. 51) https://t.co/2UZDN3eYjI
02:57:21 Election 2020 has begun! -> John Kasich to gather top New Hampshire supporters (@politicoalex) https://t.co/lVrDiplIfa
03:03:22 Retweeted @jbernier93 03:00:51 @abulsme @politicoalex @politico OH COME ON in reply to abulsme
03:05:57 Retweeted @BraddJaffy 02:01:39 Hillary asked Kimmel to take her pulse while answering Q about health rumors, then opened a jar of pickles, via pool https://t.co/MEWrAJ6hcm
03:10:21 Reading – Donald Trump Jacked Up His Campaign’s Trump Tower Rent Once Somebody Else Was Paying It (S V Date) https://t.co/2CMCE3ULDO
13:50:19 Retweeted @BraddJaffy 11:32:29 Trump’s newest deportation plan is вЂ” quite literally вЂ” exactly what Obama is already doing https://t.co/FsCAdjYdQG https://t.co/7IdLgXCOxf
14:00:31 Reading – Trump Camp: Obama Deportation Policy Actually Pretty Awesome (@joshtpm) https://t.co/IBuEPAPmtv
14:37:15 Reading – A Eulogy for John J. McLaughlin (Pat Buchanan) https://t.co/RjfXlm6LVu
14:41:30 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 14:41:03 That’s all for today’s round of new data. New polls in OH/VA. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.
16:19:30 Retweeted @irin 15:01:59 Observation from our roundtable of white married women in OH: Because they only see anti-Trump ads, they think media is biased against him.
16:21:48 Reading – The Trump Campaign Didn't Think Much of Melania's Speech Either (Russ Choma) https://t.co/uXyEW6DXpS
17:25:18 Listening to Full Episodes вЂ“ PBS NewsHour PBS NewsHour full episode Aug. 22, 2016
via iCatcher! https://t.co/cY7DNNTULR
17:34:58 Listening to BBC Focus Magazine Podcast Focus Magazine Q&A podcast вЂ“ Star Wars special
via iCatcher! https://t.co/UWAhY33n71
17:53:23 Listening to Astronomy Cast Ep. 418: Error 418 вЂ“ I’m a Teapot!
via iCatcher! https://t.co/vz1ZAEWWM0
18:19:14 Listening to Hidden Brain Episode 42: Decide Already!
via iCatcher! https://t.co/IExb9nPSG0
18:38:07 Listening to The World This Week Russian warplanes use Iranian airbase
via iCatcher! https://t.co/bRWFmRJDrI
18:50:13 Got to work this morning. Realized I left work laptop at home. Drove home. Morning shot. Will work half day and end up 3-4 hrs in car. Yay!
20:04:19 Listening to No One Knows Anything Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Foreign To The Republican Party
via iCatcher! https://t.co/IKlbH1fnWX
21:52:00 Reading – ESO Announcement To Address Reports Of Proxima Centauri Exoplanet (Matt Williams) https://t.co/k8SVOwcMup
22:47:35 WTF France? -> Armed police order Muslim woman to remove her burkini on packed Nice beach (Allen/Thornhill/Summers) https://t.co/0xwG9tFDlx
22:53:08 Reading – Trump’s challenge: How to sell deportations to suburban swing voters (Greg Sargent) https://t.co/fjWY9wR7oE

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-22 (UTC)

15:16:34 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 15:16:14 Done adding new data for today. New polls in OH/IA/SC/NC. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-08-22 (UTC)

13:43:51 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in OH from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% https://t.co/qq0uxW96pS
13:43:56 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in OH from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
13:55:44 Poll Added: YouGov w/4P in IA from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 40% to Trump 40% https://t.co/XuKQvDW5rK
13:55:49 Full 4P results logged: YouGov w/4P in IA from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-19 – Clinton 40% to Trump 40% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
14:00:08 Poll Added: Gravis in SC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 42% to Trump 46% https://t.co/NAic1ZPLvI
14:02:23 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in SC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 37% to Trump 41% https://t.co/IA3qmTOFid
14:02:28 Full 4P results logged: Gravis w/4P in SC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 37% to Trump 41% to Johnson 7% to Stein 3%
14:07:51 Poll Added: Gravis in NC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 44% to Trump 43% https://t.co/eH56xRc3b5
14:09:54 Poll Added: Gravis w/4P in NC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 38% to Trump 39% https://t.co/b6N5LLku2N
14:10:00 Full 4P results logged: Gravis w/4P in NC from 2016-08-15 to 2016-08-17 – Clinton 38% to Trump 39% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
15:13:15 Consensus seems to be that the CEPEX poll in PA ( https://t.co/erlc2nz633 ) is not вЂњrealвЂќ. For the moment I am not including it. (1/3)
15:13:47 I’ll watch out for more info on this poll though, and will reconsider if there seems to be good reason to include this data point. (2/3) in reply to ElecCollPolls
15:14:44 This goes against my вЂњinclude everything and let the average sort it outвЂќ philosophy though, so feeling squishy on this choiceвЂ¦ (3/3) in reply to ElecCollPolls
15:16:14 Done adding new data for today. New polls in OH/IA/SC/NC. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.
17:31:18 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 15:42:10 @ElecCollPolls real or not, the methodology is abysmal. Quite possibly the worst poll I've seen this cycle. in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:31:49 .@seth_b_samuels So, I’m guessing your vote is not to include it. :-) in reply to seth_b_samuels
18:20:34 Retweeted @hominidviews 17:47:05 @ElecCollPolls @seth_b_samuels The 7.1% MOE is way too large for N=1000. No serious explanation for the discrepancy. in reply to ElecCollPolls
18:23:43 .@hominidviews @seth_b_samuels Everyone seems to agree it is a poll with questionable methods, but is that enuf to exclude from the average? in reply to hominidviews
19:33:42 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:20:37 @ElecCollPolls Ha, yes. I get the "include everything and let the average sort it out" thing, but this isn't a real poll. It's just garbage. in reply to ElecCollPolls
19:33:45 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:21:52 @hominidviews @ElecCollPolls Not necessarily. MoE for 1k for *each candidate* is ~3.1. So MoE for the difference is about 2x that. in reply to hominidviews
19:33:49 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:23:00 @hominidviews @ElecCollPolls the big problem is that they called people and didn't control for race or age, which are the two biggest (1/2) in reply to hominidviews
19:33:53 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:23:39 @hominidviews @ElecCollPolls predictors of both response rate and party affiliation. (2/2) in reply to seth_b_samuels
19:33:56 Retweeted @seth_b_samuels 19:25:50 @ElecCollPolls @hominidviews you can do whatever you want obviously, but to my mind this is not a data point, it's just noise. in reply to ElecCollPolls
19:35:57 .@seth_b_samuels @hominidviews I have heard LOTS of reasons to ignore this, but so far none for including it, so still leaning againstвЂ¦ in reply to seth_b_samuels
22:16:49 Retweeted @the_scrivener 21:33:41 @ElecCollPolls if methodology was to call the first 1000 people in the Scranton phone book, it's a methodology but obviously not real data in reply to ElecCollPolls
22:16:52 Retweeted @the_scrivener 21:34:40 @ElecCollPolls this poll is so obviously flawed, no difference. All Friday poll, no weight to age or gender. Landline only. I mean… in reply to the_scrivener
22:16:55 Retweeted @hominidviews 22:11:47 In which I engage in wonky fisking….https://t.co/bdG1LGmr8O https://t.co/X1Y4ewKNRq

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-22 (UTC)

00:15:44 Retweeted @docrocktex26 2016-08-10 16:14:12 The GOP will forever be known as the party that ran a White supremacist in rebuttal to the first Black POTUS. Claim them at your own peril. in reply to docrocktex26
01:29:58 Retweeted @crowguye 2016-08-21 23:57:51 @RJSzczerba @JeriLRyan
The full version is even better https://t.co/auIrZ0ONWl in reply to RJSzczerba
04:46:24 Reading – A luxury cruise ship sets sail for the Arctic, thanks to climate change (Dennis/Mooney) https://t.co/XrGBbrsvrS
04:49:16 Retweeted @DrinkSolaPop 2016-08-21 23:50:24 my stomach is in knots right now https://t.co/uUDUreIaWU
13:04:04 Retweeted @MattGertz 12:46:42 Not sure on what planet Trump's real estate and personal brand empire isn't a bigger conflict of interest than Clinton's charity. in reply to MattGertz
13:07:23 Retweeted @kylegriffin1 12:41:30 Kellyanne Conway tells NBC News Trump talked abt debates y'day w/ advisers, but said right now, "classic debate prep doesn't apply to him."
15:17:19 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 15:16:14 Done adding new data for today. New polls in OH/IA/SC/NC. No changes that trigger a blog post for @ElectionGraphs.
15:41:17 Retweeted @AndrewKirell 13:22:11 вЂњWhy are you laughing?вЂќ My god, this video of Pence on Fox News is incredible. https://t.co/iYGF8VUKkV https://t.co/B1q6LxaiVf
16:51:08 Listening to The Trump-nado Could Blow The (GOP) House Down
via iCatcher! https://t.co/mjKy7suGQr
18:53:13 Retweeted @NASASunEarth 18:17:42 We have re-established contact with STEREO-B! DSN locked on at 6:27pm ET on Aug. 21. More: https://t.co/hpwfJCzmXH https://t.co/3Zuwd5b7es
18:53:47 Retweeted @justinjm1 18:30:34 Jimmy Carter says he believed he had 2-3 weeks to live https://t.co/C0DAnZ6lDN
19:14:53 Retweeted @imbou 19:14:39 @justinjm1 @abulsme you gotta love this guy, regardless of what you think of his presidency. in reply to justinjm1
19:47:16 Retweeted @imbou 19:35:33 @abulsme Will trump release his tax returns before election? #trumptax
19:47:28 .@imbou No. He won’t. in reply to imbou
19:48:36 Retweeted @imbou 19:47:44 @abulsme vote!!! in reply to abulsme
19:49:26 .@imbou Oh, was that a poll? I have to open the crappy official Twitter client to see those. PfftвЂ¦ in reply to imbou
20:23:21 Reading – Why You Should Follow Your Roommate on Social Media (Michael Nunez) https://t.co/yi6xghVmc7
20:30:27 Retweeted @imbou 20:28:03 @abulsme you curmudgeon you in reply to abulsme
20:46:02 Reading – Gawker Was Murdered by Gaslight (Tom Scocca) https://t.co/jV0kAulJKa
21:08:18 Retweeted @aravosis 20:38:41 Of course, I had no idea about the allegations until Trump sued over them and now every outlet is mentioning them. https://t.co/c2kyLaLkte
21:10:29 Reading – Clinton Foundation Staffer Sought Access To State On Behalf Of Donor, New Email Shows (Kyle Blaine) https://t.co/9oIxmzG5O6
21:28:46 Retweeted @ClancyKIRO7 20:59:00 Mill Creek woman who collects new shoes 4 low-income kids found this at rented storage facility. @KIRO7Seattle at 5p https://t.co/D6GdluZt9A
21:53:34 Retweeted @kricou 21:20:02 Holy cow I have been think-pieced. It's not a think piece about how awesome I am. But it's fair. https://t.co/3GlmbW3dAd via @doublexmag
22:30:18 Retweeted @hominidviews 22:11:47 In which I engage in wonky fisking….https://t.co/bdG1LGmr8O https://t.co/X1Y4ewKNRq
22:58:21 Reading – Did Trumpers Just Hit An Immigration Wall? (@joshtpm) https://t.co/coocwHe3NU

@abulsme tweets from 2016-08-21 (UTC)

01:45:45 [Blog Post] My kids with their kites https://t.co/lR4dup8z8o
04:38:47 Reading – Justice Department Says Poor Can't Be Held When They Can't Afford Bail (Pete Williams) https://t.co/cAL7XT5D62
18:32:14 Retweeted @matthewjdowd 12:06:26 This made be laugh out loud. https://t.co/EOfLoNzQbN
18:32:51 Retweeted @cosmos4u 18:31:36 It's t minus 1 year until the first total solar eclipse for the contiguous United States since 1979: https://t.co/jTAl1vXSGd has many links.
22:30:34 Retweeted @politicalmath 22:05:39 In our eagerness to hate, we forget that kids who have lost everything need something to do
Don't
Be
Assholes https://t.co/0GuxvHoB6O
23:25:09 Retweeted @NinaMehlhaf 22:29:22 Hotels in Redmond/Bend filling up fast for solar eclipse in exactly one year from today. This map shows duration https://t.co/HNMKHdW5xH
23:29:36 Retweeted @jonfavs 2016-08-19 00:32:56 Here we go. New speech, new team, a few tightening polls and it'll be FULL FREAKOUT MODE soon.
Let's act like we've been there before.

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@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-08-24 (UTC)

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