- 00:11:25 Reading – Anchors Aweigh (Maureen Dowd) http://t.co/Efm3hXOOSS
- 00:28:05 Retweeted @cdixon 2015-02-07 18:11:09 Optimal strategy: some people love=charge $. Lots of people like=ads.
- 00:31:16 Retweeted @LailaLalami 2015-02-07 21:56:51 Good news, everyone: someone's finally been disciplined for lying to the public about the Iraq war. Bad news: it's Brian Williams.
- 01:02:12 Retweeted @PzFeed 01:01:26 BREAKING NEWS: Shots fired at Monroeville Mall in Monroeville, Pennsylvania. At least 2 people shot.
- 01:03:48 I used to go to Monroeville Mall all the time when I lived in Pittsburgh! (1989 to 1995)
- 01:12:45 Retweeted @WPXI_Courtney 01:09:26 MASSIVE POLICE PRESENCE at Monroeville Mall after several people were shot. #wpxi http://t.co/Y9OftQ5ZJL
- 04:01:32 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 04:00:52 The best shade I can throw is always directed towards my mom. Good thing she loves me @Scatterbrandy
- 04:01:56 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 04:01:48 Just made my dad retweet me bc retweets show real love @abulsme
- 04:47:05 Taxes done. @amynotamy did much of the work. Refunds are good things.
- 04:52:49 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 04:52:13 Roscoe went outside with dad's sweatshirt on and came back with out it. #hound @abulsme
- 04:54:42 Retweeted @lssonkin 03:49:45 Police say 1 victim of shooting at #MonroevilleMall was targeted, 2 were innocent bystanders. No arrests yet. Latest info tonight on #wpxi
- 07:12:48 Um… RT @ChipotleTweets: We are now in full support of the Nazi Party. Fuck that nigger Obama!
- 07:16:02 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:15:01 @ChipotleTweets oh my god
- 07:19:38 I see @ChipotleTweets is having an awesome night tonight.
- 07:21:58 Retweeted @Scatterbrandy 07:21:13 Chipotle FAKED Its Recent Twitter Hack http://t.co/qtbxqa5M3r via @HuffPostTech
- 07:22:23 .@Scatterbrandy @HuffPostTech I'm thinking not this time… in reply to Scatterbrandy
- 07:23:19 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:22:45 That's MUCH cuter than the current hack. “@Scatterbrandy: Chipotle FAKED Its Recent Twitter Hack http://t.co/gt0W4K41AX via @HuffPostTech” in reply to Scatterbrandy
- 07:23:32 Retweeted @Scatterbrandy 07:23:10 @abulsme ya think? in reply to abulsme
- 07:23:35 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:23:11 .@abulsme @Scatterbrandy hmm, what makes you say that, dad? in reply to abulsme
- 07:24:00 .@AmyNotAmy @Scatterbrandy I dunno, just a hunch… in reply to AmyNotAmy
- 07:27:49 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:26:14 holy guacamole!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! @ChipotleTweets
- 07:27:54 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:27:38 Time to… BEEF UP security. @ChipotleTweets
- 07:28:45 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:28:17 Seems like the guy who hacked you has got a chip on his shoulder @ChipotleTweets
- 07:29:46 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:29:24 Ooh… salty @ChipotleTweets
- 07:30:39 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:30:12 Lettuce all pray for @ChipotleTweets
- 07:30:44 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:30:35 It must be a really hard thing taco through @ChipotleTweets
- 07:35:25 Retweeted @PzFeed 07:32:45 Twitter account @ChipotleTweets has been hacked. http://t.co/KkdnihOGQI
- 07:40:24 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:34:14 Looks like you guys are in some 'hot' water. @ChipotleTweets
- 07:42:26 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 07:42:04 Maybe these hackers should have chosen a better medium for their anger @ChipotleTweets
- 07:48:02 Retweeted @7im 07:46:02 That escalated quickly “@AustinHunt: Hackers appear to have completely taken over the @ChipotleTweets account: http://t.co/JqrQWBtXNu” in reply to AustinHunt
- 08:17:22 Looks like @ChipotleTweets is back under corporate control… That was fun to watch for a little bit. Glad I’m not social media manager there.
- 08:21:48 Retweeted @CatyCarrico 08:20:39 Looks like @ChipotleTweets had warning that a hack was underway but customer service did not understand. http://t.co/tdVkld75Jw
- 10:08:42 Reading – What the FCC's New Net Neutrality Move Means for Video – A Lot (Steven Rosenbaum) http://t.co/8xJi6ZXgrQ
- 10:11:05 Retweeted @ChipotleTweets 09:27:54 We apologize for the very offensive messages sent out from our account earlier tonight. We were unfortunately hijacked temporarily. -Joe
- 11:20:22 Added display of the num of electoral votes to the state poll pages ( http://t.co/tyrlLlnokb ) & comparison pages ( http://t.co/NHRlCSZJXw )
- 12:06:49 Retweeted @IsraeliPM 12:05:04 PM at the Cabinet meeting: The major powers and Iran are galloping toward an agreement that will endanger the existence of Israel. В»
- 12:06:52 Retweeted @IsraeliPM 12:05:12 The US Sec State and Iran's FM held talks over the weekend and announced they intend to complete a framework agreement by the end of March.В» in reply to IsraeliPM
- 12:06:56 Retweeted @IsraeliPM 12:05:19 From this stems the urgency of our efforts to block this bad and dangerous agreement. in reply to IsraeliPM
- 12:06:59 Retweeted @IsraeliPM 12:05:40 We will continue to take action and to lead the international effort against Iran's arming itself with nuclear weapons. В» in reply to IsraeliPM
- 12:07:01 Retweeted @IsraeliPM 12:05:51 We will take any action to foil this bad and dangerous agreement that will place a heavy cloud over the future of Israel and its security. in reply to IsraeliPM
- 12:08:30 Wow, @IsraeliPM openly and directly saying main objective is to derail a major US foreign policy effort at all costs. The rift grows.
- 12:09:57 Will be interesting to see how Obama Admin reacts. This will get quite messy before it is done.
- 12:26:04 To be clear, it has been obvious for quite some time that @IsraeliPM policy was to scuttle deal, but this more direct open language, no?
- 12:27:21 Or did I miss it? (Very possible.) My immediate thought on hearing this… They must be afraid the deal is getting VERY close…
- 12:32:59 Wonder just what @IsraeliPM will do to stop it. Not that they might not fail to agree anyway even without sand thrown into gears.
- 12:38:14 Found some similar but not quite as strong statements from a few days ago. Just slowly ramping up? Anyway… Bed time.
- 12:39:16 Reading – Iran says opportunity for nuclear deal is now (AlJazeera) http://t.co/Ho19ssMIpv
- 19:34:50 Reading – A robot vacuum tried to eat its sleeping owner's head (Molly McHugh) http://t.co/E0MkEL3Npl
- 23:36:37 Retweeted @dangillmor 21:44:33 Imagine if "broken windows" policing applied to Wall Street fraudsters.
On Thursday I mentioned that if the current trend continued, new polls would push Bush into the lead in Florida and North Carolina before long. Well, only a couple days later, we have yet to see it in North Carolina, but we have that new poll in Florida.
Florida is big (29 EV), so this of course makes a big difference on the national trend chart:
Will more states start flipping in Bush’s direction? Keep your eyes out over the next few months, the campaign is slowly getting into gear! In the meantime, Clinton vs Bush looks like this:
And we have just a tint of red down in Florida…
(Three electoral college posts from me in one week! Hopefully this isn’t the new normal quite yet…)
In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and IvГЎn talk about:
Length this week – 1:11:55
Some new polling was added today from PPP in North Carolina. It didn’t change the status of any state for any of the top five “best polled” candidates, nor did it change the tipping points for any of those. However, it did move Clinton vs Bush ahead of Clinton vs Paul in the metric I use to measure how good the polling is for the various candidate combinations. This means that Clinton vs Bush is now the default view when you go to election2016.abulsme.com. Now, this does NOT necessarily mean that Clinton and Bush are the front runners in their respective primary races… although there is a strong argument that they are… it just means that there is currently better state by state polling data for this particular combination than any of the others. Given this, I thought a quick overview of the Clinton vs Bush combination was in order.
So, as with all the other “top five” Republicans against Clinton, Bush is behind, even in the “Best Case” where you give him all of Clinton’s weak states.
But, unlike some of the others, Bush’s “best case” has been steadily improving since last spring. And while it hasn’t happened yet, there are two states right on the verge of flipping and improving his expected case as well…
Florida, with 29 electoral votes, considered by many a “must win” for any Republican path to victory, has been trending strongly away from Clinton and toward Bush since bottoming out in the first part of 2014. Currently Clinton’s lead is 0.4% in my average. One more good poll for Bush, and Florida will move into his column.
Ditto with North Carolina with 15 electoral votes, where Clinton’s lead is a minuscule 0.2%. Both these states are really neck and neck, but the trend has been in Bush’s direction in both. Do not be surprised if these flip and Bush’s “expected case” starts moving in his direction soon. Of course, to actually win, a lot of states need to move. The “tipping point” measures this.
No significant movement here recently. Does this move Bush isn’t moving all the states he needs to? Maybe. But more likely, there just hasn’t been much new polling in the states near Bush’s current tipping point. To start seeing movement in the tipping point for Clinton vs Bush, we need some new polls in states like New Hampshire (last poll in November), Wisconsin (last poll in April), Virginia (last poll in March), Minnesota (last poll in June) or Colorado (last poll in July). The age of the polls in these states shows just how far away we still are from having a large enough volume of state level polling to have a good “real time responsive” sort of take on the situation. At this stage, polling is still slow and sparse in most states, and you have to interpret things accordingly. Now, you can’t give a summary without the traditional map. So here is the current Clinton vs Bush map…
And finally, here is how that looks as a spectrum of the states broken down into the various classifications:
So there is our new “best polled” candidate combination… for the moment… |
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