This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-18 (UTC)

  • 06:54:10 After some consideration, I have removed some UArk poll results that were Clinton vs Generic Republican in AR. http://t.co/3gg65DGb3U
  • 06:57:38 I include prev elec results in my avg’s when there are not enough polls on a candidate pair in a state, other generics didn’t seem to fit.
  • 06:59:02 Since this affected the average in AR for Clinton vs every Republican, there were many status changes.
  • 06:59:18 I will report here on just those affecting the “top five” best polled combos.
  • 06:59:43 That would be Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Cruz.
  • 07:02:48 In AR, Clinton vs Christie moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Christie. http://t.co/YkNUil42aA
  • 07:03:34 In AR, Clinton vs Paul moved from Weak Paul to Strong Paul. http://t.co/8w1Gi68gQ1
  • 07:04:09 In AR, Clinton vs Bush moved from Weak Bush to Strong Bush. http://t.co/gKdL47KhH8
  • 07:04:44 In AR, Clinton vs Huckabee moved from Strong Huckabee to Solid Huckabee. http://t.co/9xvpZlhUsI
  • 07:05:30 In AR, Clinton vs Cruz moved from Strong Cruz to Solid Cruz. http://t.co/vDPwxpmexr
  • 07:06:48 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Christie moved from Clinton by 204 to Clinton by 192.
  • 07:07:43 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Paul moved from Clinton by 236 to Clinton by 224. http://t.co/27ifbbaJLC
  • 07:08:29 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Bush moved from Clinton by 188 to Clinton by 176. http://t.co/ok7J0g9NXb
  • 07:09:18 Nationally, expected Clinton vs Christie moved from Clinton by 168 to Clinton by 156. http://t.co/O12etrci9U
  • 07:10:19 None of the Republican best cases, nor the tipping point states or margins changed after eliminating the UArk results.
  • 07:13:15 The order of the “best polled” pairs did change fr Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee, Cruz to Christie, Bush, Paul. Huckabee, Cruz.
  • 07:16:30 That’s it for the changes caused by removing the UArk Clinton vs Generic Republican results in AR. Sorry for all the changes.

@abulsme tweets from 2014-10-18 (UTC)

Bad Idea?

I told him I would let him try… So there we go. Alex cutting my hair.

But we are now both on the way to the barber for our periodic joint haircuts. He really wants to keep his hair long though, so just a trim for him. He doesn’t even want that, but we are going anyway. We shall see how cooperative he is.

I want mine short again. We considered actually doing mine at home, but Brandy didn’t like my plan of “just go vroop vroop vroop with the beard trimmer across my whole head”. So barber it is… After letting Alex have his try first of course.

Last Day of my Staycation

I took the last week off from work for the purpose of working on a variety of personal projects.

The above is the timelapse from my home office webcam for my last real day of vacation. Hit play to start it. I’m currently experimenting with a fisheye lens so you can see the whole room, although with a bit of distortion. But this way you can see what Alex, Roscoe, and if you don’t blink Amy too, are doing in the room, rather than just seeing a closer view of me at my desk. :-)

It has been a good week. I got a few things done, although of course not as much as I would have liked. I made a decision early in the week not to worry too much about it, and also use the time to just take it slow and relax a bit. So I didn’t push myself. I’m still a bit under the weather and tired… and I’ll probably end up trying to finish a few more things over the weekend even though that is harder when Alex isn’t in school. So I’m not sure I’ll head back to work fully relaxed and rejuvenated, but it was still good to take the week. I should use my vacation and personal days a bit more than I do. I always end up leaving those on the table because I don’t use them.

Anyway, good week over all. Glad I did it. :-)

Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-17 (UTC)

  • 21:35:53 I added 1980 Gen Elec results to poll data. Select “All” in History drop down on a state page to see 34 yrs of hist. http://t.co/HFam7vFJp6

@abulsme tweets from 2014-10-17 (UTC)

  • 00:05:19 Retweeted @stevenstrogatz 2014-10-16 19:22:54 Love this proof my liberal arts students found for 1+2+3+4+3+2+1=4^2. (Count the squares vertically.) http://t.co/P3mp9fgnVs
  • 00:09:57 Retweeted @drgrist 00:02:58 Remarkable thing about Ebola is how *quickly* everyone slotted it in to their pre-existing political narratives. Seamless.
  • 00:10:58 Retweeted @Lileks 00:06:01 One of these days Apple will realize that giving away free operating systems miiiiight tax their servers a tad the first few hours.
  • 00:37:18 This sucks. Stop. At least let people opt out. -> The spirit of exprmnttion & evolution of your timeline (@tmobrien) https://t.co/P5V6B1NBSa
  • 00:58:35 Reading – Whisper’s problem: It wants to be both an anonymous app and a news entity at the same time (@mathewi) https://t.co/zNTCKEeFg1
  • 01:00:54 Retweeted @140elect 00:13:08 Americans in past year killed by…
    #Ebola: 1.
    #ISIS: 2.
    Flu/Pneumonia: 54,000.
    Diabetes: 74,000.
    Cancer: 575,000.
    Heart disease: 600,000.
  • 01:25:48 Retweeted @MatthewKeysLive 00:43:59 Twitter's users do not find new timeline experiment to be "interesting or entertaining" – http://t.co/yRDPOEamNw
  • 03:00:43 [Abulpost] Curmudgeon's Corner: Turning the Hamster Wheel http://t.co/KpzwWbsFM6
  • 04:29:10 Reading – The media is doing an awful job explaining Ebola, and #ClipboardMan is proof (Arielle Duhaime-Ross) http://t.co/airdqt6nur
  • 04:51:27 Started downloading Yosemite. Looks like this is going to take quite awhile…
  • 06:43:57 Download finished a little bit ago. Starting the Yosemite upgrade… NOW. Woo?
  • 07:39:54 Installer has said "About 22 minutes remaining" for about 45 minutes now. Why even bother with time remaining estimates? #Yosemite
  • 08:09:30 Light reading while installing #Yosemite -> OS X 10.10 Yosemite: The Ars Technica Review (John Siracusa) http://t.co/0lVyixFCtp
  • 08:14:22 About 90 minutes into the install process now. It has said “About 22 minutes remaining” basically the whole time. #Yosemite
  • 08:15:49 I’ve opened the install log and set it to show all logs, so at least I can watch what it is doing. Progress bar at ~5% probably. #Yosemite
  • 08:21:10 Biggest time so far appears to be multiple passes on fsck, checking and then repairing errors in my boot volume. That took about 75 minutes.
  • 08:26:03 Time left finally going down. At 17 minutes now. Progress bar maybe 25% now. Speed! #Yosemite
  • 08:40:13 “Less than a minute remaining”! #Yosemite
  • 08:43:16 Reading – Kerry Flies Commercial After Jet Breaks Down in Vienna (Michael R. Gordon) http://t.co/0rypLCMR51
  • 08:45:56 A minute takes a long time. #Yosemite
  • 08:49:37 Lots of seconds. #Yosemite http://t.co/uaj8xNAshG
  • 08:55:32 Of course, it isn’t REALLY done yet… #Yosemite
  • 09:01:52 [Abulpost] Lots of Seconds http://t.co/i1jrHKix9Z
  • 09:05:10 In other news, tried the WordPress iOS app for the first time in a long time. Couple things that had kept me from using it fixed. Yea!
  • 09:07:10 This may mean more blog posts in times where I hadn’t bothered before because it wasn’t handy or convieniant to post via web interface. Woo!
  • 09:10:32 #Yosemite now up and running. A number of apps will have to migrate data though. Messages is going now. Mail will be the big one for me.
  • 09:11:31 When I updated to Mavericks it took more than 24 hours for Mail to migrate. Millions of archived messages probably slowed the process a bit.
  • 12:29:52 I’m still up playing with various computer related things. Some #Yosemite related, some not. Probably should sleep at some point…
  • 16:30:26 Retweeted @mattblaze 16:29:37 If "cybersecurity" is really a national priority (and it should be), these calls for security backdoors are simply madness.
  • 16:35:40 Retweeted @chrislhayes 14:16:34 Last 3 Months
    WH: Don't do stupid shit.
    Chattering Class: WE WANT STUPID SHIT!!!
    WH: No.
    CC: GIVE US STUPID SHIT.
    WH: Fine. Here you go.
  • 18:09:03 Retweeted @eafarris 18:01:02 A PSA for all of you upgrading to OSX Yosemite: You can now change the default search engine in Safari to @DuckDuckGo. This you should do.
  • 18:11:12 Changed my default search to @duckduckgo on iOS as soon as that was possible a while ago. Did the same on OS X last night.
  • 21:23:47 Another Test for a digest bug fix: “@abulsme”@ElecCollPolls

Lots of Seconds

Installing Yosemite.

IMG_8339.JPG

Of course, despite what it says, it isn’t really done.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Turning the Hamster Wheel

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about:
* Sick / Vacation
* Inappropriate Conversations
* GamerGate
* Ebola
* Economy

Recorded on 16 Oct 2014

Length this week – 1:25:53

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes Download MP3 File
 View Podcast in iTunes  View Raw XML Feed

@abulsme tweets from 2014-10-16 (UTC)

Today’s Apple Stuff and Lack of Timely Obsolescence

I told myself recently that if I found myself starting to send out a series of tweets expressing my thoughts on some subject, I should just do a blog post instead, cause that is what it is for after all. And I recently compared my blog from today to my blog from several years ago, and I noticed that I used to actually make real blog posts all the time, and it is very rare today, and I miss that old blog. And I have time today. So here goes.

Yosemite: I’m going to be installing this later today probably. I sometimes wait a little while on updates, but I’m home, I have time, why not. I am a bit sad that my iMac (a Late 2009 27-inch) is too old for Continuity, which is one of the big new things. That feature DOES seem nice. But I’ll see how it goes without that.

New iPads: Looks nice. And I do want touch-ID. But I have a just under two year old iPad at the moment (uh, modulo replacements for breaking the screen), and I have yet to hit something that I want to do with it that it can’t do. It is working fine for me. I’m not yet at the point where I feel really anxious to upgrade.

New iMacs: My 2009 iMac definitely shows the fact that it is almost five years old. In the past I have operated on a four year replacement cycle. My iMac was “due” in 2013. It wasn’t in the cards for budget reasons. (I got a car at the end of 2012 instead.) I was really anxious and performance was bad. Since then the upgrade to Mavericks, plus moving a bunch of stuff off the primary drive to external drives has given the old thing a new lease on life. It is still quirky and sometimes frustratingly slow. There are some games Alex would like to play (I’m looking at you Trainz Simulator 2!) that just perform really badly on this old hardware. But, but, it basically does the things I actually use it for regularly. I do my podcast, I work with my photos, I work on my website stuff, I watch some streaming video, I do email, I look at twitter. Those things comprise 95%+ of what I actually use my desktop for these days. And those things still work. (Much of my “just reading stuff on the web” use has moved to the iPad.) Given this, as much as it would be awesome to upgrade, it will be hard to justify.

OK, and even though it was last month, not today, the new iPhones: Same here basically. The new iPhones are cool. We’ve updated every other generation for years. I still don’t have touch ID and I want it. But again, my current phone is basically working, and aside from being jealous on the Touch ID, there isn’t much on the new ones that makes me feel like I *must* upgrade.

There is clearly a theme here. Last time I updated my iMac and last time I updated my iPhone, similar lengths of time had passed, but I was distinctly feeling limited and frustrated by the old devices. I felt I *needed* to upgrade. At this point I don’t feel that yet. It would be *nice* to upgrade, of course. But I don’t have that feeling where I feel like I will be suffering if I don’t.

It seems like, at least for me, things are moving from an “upgrade every X years because by then your old equipment will be barely hanging on and you need to” to more like an “upgrade when it breaks” mode, with maybe a caveat in there for “or when you have some extra money and want to treat yourself”.

Is this just me and my own family’s situation and use case? Or is this widespread? Is the hardware getting to the point where it is good enough that for most people these things can last much longer than they used to? Will the phone replacement cycle start moving from two years to three? Or even more? A computer more than four years old used to feel crippled and unable to keep up with what was wanted of it. Is that less so now? Will it be reasonable to keep these old things running 5 or 6 years or more?

Of course, some of this depends on how you push your computers and what you do with them. If you were just doing simple word processing, you could still conceivably use a 1970’s or 1980’s era computer to do it. If you were satisfied to keep doing the things the way they were done back then that is. If you only ever do with a device exactly the things you did with it on the day you bought it, then you can use it that way as long as it physically doesn’t stop working. It is the new things that tax the old equipment.

Maybe I’m just not seeing the “killer app” yet that forces the upgrade from any of the older equipment. Or maybe I am seeing it, and I’m just an old curmudgeon that just doesn’t think any of it is as compelling as other folks do.

When I install Yosemite in a bit, and it turns out I’m constantly wanting the features it can’t run because my computer is too old, maybe I’ll start thinking about that. When there is a major OS release that the old device can’t support, maybe that is when the issue gets forced. Yosemite supports back to the Mid-2007 iMacs. iOS 8 supports back to the iPhone 4s and the iPad 2.

I admit, if a major new software release came out, and I just couldn’t upgrade at all, I think I’d feel like the time had come. I have some old devices lying around that aren’t up to date on the software, but none of them are primary use devices.

Anyway, budgets are tight these days. If I had tons of extra, maybe I’d upgrade regardless. But at the moment, the question is, “do I *need* to”. And as of today, for hardware anyway, the answer appears to be “No”.