- RT @neiltyson: ThisJust In: A LeapSecond will be added to the last minute of June 30, 2012 to account for Earth's ever-slowing rotation rate #
- RT @fivethirtyeight: Yesterday's conventional wisdom: "Romney inevitable!". Today's conventional wisdom: "brokered convention!". #
- CNN calls it for Newt. That's 11 delegates for Newt. Now we have to wait for results in each congressional district. #Newtmentum #
- CNN calls it for Newt. That's 11 delegates for Newt. Now we have to wait for results in each congressional district. #Newtmentum #SC #
- @jonsevern So much fun! I'm almost done with my Obama vs Romney electoral model. Annoying if I have to start over with Gingrich! :-) #
- RT @googlepolitics: Our South Carolina results map is up and ready for action http://t.co/OR2hrGQd #SCPrimary cc' @fivethirtyeight #
- Reading – Live-Blogging The South Carolina Results (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/44np8fhK #
- MT @LarrySabato: Dems delighting in apparent R decision to prolong contest should recall this is EXACTLY what D voters did in Obama-Hillary. #
- RT @fivethirtyeight: Is Romney Still Ahead in Florida? http://t.co/MUSNPcOm #
- Reading – Yes, Romney Could Lose, Ctd (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/e2UbMTj1 #
- Reading – Live Coverage of South Carolina Primary (Nate Silver) http://t.co/cDgIpLyx #
- Reading – MPAA Directly & Publicly Threatens Politicians Who Aren't Corrupt Enough To Stay Bought (Wil Wheaton) http://t.co/hT5nNdIb #
- RT @joshtpm: Remembering that we haven't had a sighting of Attack Mitt since Perry came in: think we're about to see him again. #
- RT @Atrios: this is excellent news for john mccain #
- RT @Redistrict: Reality check: even if Newt's winning SC, he's not winning by enough 2 derail Mitt's delegate edge. y? Newt's VA ballot flub #
- Reading – South Carolina Republican Primary returns not being reported by Congressional District (The Green Papers) http://t.co/8TO195A2 #
- RT @TPM: Huckabee: Newt owes CNN's John King a nice steak dinner http://t.co/fGqjYYS7 #
- RT @fivethirtyeight: Gingrich Could Win All S.C. Delegates http://t.co/bSVaQHy0 #
- Reading – Newt Plans To Take Florida By Storm — But Can He? (Benjy Sarlin) http://t.co/1GTTZD5n #
- RT @DemConWatch: Paul: "Only 37 delegates allocated." He understands, Iowa has no delegates awarded. The press should do the same. #
- Reading – Did the Feds Just Kill the Cloud Storage Model? (Washington's Blog) http://t.co/L8X0SUJa #
- @Atrios Look at http://t.co/KlvnjkfD by @TheGreenPapers & http://t.co/IYb5ImtH by @DemConWatch (and my own stuff at http://t.co/4i8C0UpU ) #
- Reading – Quick Thoughts on Tonight’s Results (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/cbB1gb5E #
- @Romay1963 Jeb will wait and just endorse the winner once it is a done deal. Then no risk on his part. #
- RT @ppppolls: I will be pretty surprised if Newt isn't leading the national polls this week #
- Reading – “…EMERGED GINGRICH” (Brendan Loy) http://t.co/H2FWVkw4 #
- RT @BuzzFeedBen: Gingrich is readier for florida than you'd think http://t.co/tbYzUSzC #
- Reading – Romney’s Coronation: Just Delayed, or Gone Awry? (Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik) http://t.co/cAyAcbhN #
- Reading – Online Piracy Is Still A Fake Problem ( Matthew Yglesias) http://t.co/c0gRm1S6 #
- Reading – Top Justice officials connected to mortgage banks (Scot J. Paltrow) http://t.co/bpF1wmdx #
- Reading – Newt Gingrich's Secret Ally: Time (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/f6uhnuUP #
- Reading – Romney to Release Short-Form Tax Returns (Paul Constant) http://t.co/Mm1AuE7d #
- MT @thinkprogress: Romney says he won't release more than two years of tax returns because of "the internet." http://t.co/EnL5U5IX #
- MT @fivethirtyeight: Romney's lead over Gingrich keeps falling in Gallup national tracker. All data pre-SC. http://t.co/yuOUqDBq #
- RT @fivethirtyeight: Also surging at Intrade: the Obama re-elect contract. Now trading at 56%, a 5-month high. http://t.co/SXhjxbLI #
- Reading – Look Closer at Those Florida Numbers (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/52ERR9pf #
- Reading – Throwing Hollywood under the bus could pay dividends for GOP (Timothy Lee) http://t.co/ywKAX8Lm #
- Reading – Newt's Secret Campaign: How Gingrich Really Won South Carolina (Molly Ball) http://t.co/BjUitPcJ #
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Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. Pulling ahead in just the last few days before the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich won a commanding victory in South Carolina. Although the congressional district level results won’t be final for awhile now, it looks like Gingrich will end up with 23 of South Carolina’s 25 delegates. Romney gets the remaining 2 delegates, plus he picked up another superdelegate since our last update. Fundamentally, looking at our “% of Remaining Delegates needed to win” chart gives the same story that is the big narrative tonight. This was a very bad day for Romney. Romney is still in the best position to win. He is still ahead in delegates. (33 Romney delegates to Gingrich’s 28 by our count which uses data from both The Green Papers and Democratic Convention Watch.) But now instead of being way off on his own, with a much better position than all of his competitors, who were getting worse off by the day, he is now joined by Gingrich, who has broken out of the pack of “not-Romneys” and is now nipping at Romney’s heels. Meanwhile, Paul and Santorum fall even further behind since they got no delegates at all out of South Carolina. The next big contest is Florida of course, with 50 delegates at stake. Florida is a winner take all state. If Romney wins Florida, he pulls WAY ahead again, and pushes Gingrich back into the background. If Gingrich wins, then he suddenly will take a fairly significant lead himself, and we will need to start taking a much closer look at the rest of the calendar… Since this was a big day, two other views as well… first the race as % of delegates captured so far…
Romney had been over 50% for a little while. No longer. And finally, the plain old “Total Delegates” chart…
Gingrich’s good night is particularly striking in this last one, but I think it actually makes it look like a better night than it really was. I think the first of these three charts is the most indicative of where the race really stands, but the other two are interesting views as well. But looking at % needed to win really gives you a sense of how close we are (or not) to wrapping things up. Numbers close to 50 as we have today still indicate a lot is possible. As we get candidates starting to head rapidly toward 100 (where they are mathematically eliminated) or starting to dive down toward zero (where they cinch the nomination) we will see very clearly the state of the race. Brendan Loy is right, it is time to watch and read this again. The good part starts 2:30 into the video. Lithgow does Newt (on Colbert) from wally danger on Vimeo.
Not so funny now, huh? Oh wait, yeah, it still is.
Another good article on this sort of thing from Glenn Greenwald. This time looking at this in the context of SOPA and PIPA and how even without them the government ALREADY claims and exercises powers to shut down websites based on an accusation alone, not only after a proper advisory trial where the site gets to defend itself… see Megaupload this week. Just like the government claimed it has the powers explictly granted by the NDAA no matter if the law passed or not. Greenwald’s main point…
Amen. As usual, read the whole thing. BTW, this is totally nuts.
Chart from TPM. Chart links to full article: Rumblings on the Newtrizon by Josh Marshall.
So, as we approach the voting in South Carolina, a few delegate shuffles. Perry’s 3 projected delegates from Iowa get put back into the undetermined category, Gingrich gains one super delegate, and Romney gains one superdelegate. All in all this improves everybody’s position except Rick Perry, although it is best for Romney. So here we are. We’ll see what South Carolina does to all this. In the mean time though, lets do a quick look using a different view:
This is the percentage of delegates each candidate has so far. Our Top 4 are: 58.8% Romney, 17.6% Paul, 13.7% Santorum, 9.8% Gingrich. But I wanted to compare, by looking at where we were four years ago. My most recent update post four years ago is here: Delegate Graphs with Preliminary Results from Nevada and South Carolina Republicans. Now, the primary schedule was a bit different, so there were already some results from South Carolina and Nevada, but where were we?
What were the Top 4 back then? 46.2% Romney, 24.4% McCain, 18.6% Huckabee, 5.1% Thompson. That’s right, at this time in 2008, Romney was ahead in the delegate race. Romney. Not McCain. McCain had just had a big success in South Carolina, which was enough to pass Huckabee and start talk about him being the front runner and how Romney was vulnerable. McCain wouldn’t pass Romney in delegates until January 30th after Florida voted (and then he didn’t look back). So where we are on January 21st isn’t necessarily predictive of the final result. The dynamics are of course very different this time around. I just mention all this to point out that it is indeed still early. If Gingrich DOES pull out a major victory in South Carolina, taking the lion’s share of the delegates there, then that DOES change the dynamics of the race quite a bit. Romney still has a variety of systematic advantage even in that scenario, but it could make things more interesting for awhile longer!
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