Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of Nebraska’s 5 electoral votes. I guess I’ll adjust the graph… Obama might actually pick up that 1 electoral vote from Omaha. Maybe.
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OK, now that I have time to breath while waiting for these last five states to be called, I can look at the 936 items that have built up in my Google reader while I was tracking the results, or the 137 emails I’ve gotten in that same time period. (Yeah, most of those are automated mails I get whenever I make blog posts, of which I’ve done a few tonight. :-) But still, lots to catch up on. I hope those last five states get called quickly though. In the last 30 minutes, I’ve actually started to think that maybe I’ll be able to sleep tonight after all. :-) I have been so busy trying to catch up on the graphs for the results, I didn’t comment on the speech yet. But it was very powerful. It was Obama fully in post-partisan unifying mode. And as usual when he is in that mode, he pulled all the right strings. It was inspiring and made one feel proud. Speech aside, the moment itself was exceptionally powerful. Even as I was furiously making graphs, I admit I shed a tear or two. The morning will see us begin to see what an Obama administration will actually look like. And it can not possibly life up to the expectations that have been built up. But for the moment, it was good to just absorb the moment and the historic impact of today.
This is the 04:45 UTC update, covering states that were called in the 15 minutes before that. South Dakota and Nebraska for McCain. Nevada for Obama. I’l drop the “SuperBest” estimates from the summary, as there are no longer any uncalled “Weak” states. Summary: McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160 There have still been no surprise states. I am now once again caught up with all the states CNN has called. There are still five states yet to be called. Alaska, which should go McCain. And then North Carolina, Indiana and Montana which are leaning McCain. And finally Missouri which was leaning Obama. We’ll see if any of those end up being surprises. North Carolina and Missouri were both within a percent as of the last polls. If there is a surprise, I would guess it would be one of those two states. But Indiana or Montana switching would also be well within the realm of possibility. So far my final predictions from right before the polls closed are 46 for 46. We’ll see how the last 5 states go. :-) Edit 06:03 UTC – Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of the 5 electoral votes for Nebraska. Looks like that 1 electoral vote (probably Omaha) is still too close to call. Gotta love the states that split their votes. Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.
This is the 04:30 update, covering states called in the 15 minutes prior to that time. Three states called. Arizona for McCain. Colorado and Florida for Obama. Summary: McCain SuperBest: Obama 333, McCain 205 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160 There have still been no surprise states.
This is the 04:15 UTC update, covering the states that were called in the 15 minutes previous to that time. These are the states that pushed Obama over the top. All were “Strong” states. California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii for Obama. Summary: McCain SuperBest: Obama 297, McCain 241 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150 Still no surprises. That was quite gracious, although the crowd wasn’t always. You could see the sadness and disappointment. And Palin was crying. It makes you wonder if they had actually been deluding themselves over the last month into thinking they actually did have a chance. It has been clear for awhile that they were done absent a major event… that never happened.
This is the 04:00 UTC update, covering the states that were called in the 15 minutes before that time. That was just one state. Virginia, a “Weak Obama” state, was called for Obama. Also, I noticed that in the 03:00 Update, I accidentally moved Nevada in my spreadsheet instead of New Mexico. They have the same number of electoral votes, so the “Won” lines didn’t change, but since New Mexico was Strong Obama while Nevada was only Weak Obama, this meant the McCain SuperBest line moved down prematurely. I have retroactively corrected the chart here and on the main page, but not on previous posts. New summary: Summary: McCain SuperBest: Obama 297, McCain 241 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150 Still no surprises. My Graphs will take a bit to catch up, probably another 15 or 20 minutes. But CNN just called the race for Obama as the West Coast states get called. Here comes… |
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