Yesterday rumors were flying all over the internet that Sarah Palin’s fifth child Trig was not really hers, but was actually her teenage daughter Bristol’s. (The most detailed version is here.) This was prompted by the fact that there were seemingly no pictures of Palin being visibly pregnant from the right time frame, that she didn’t announce her pregnancy until the 7th month or so, then apparently after she went into labor she did a 10 hour flight home to Alaska rather than having the baby in Texas where she was at the time. Meanwhile, there were pictures from that time frame of Bristol looking possibly pregnant, and Bristol had been taken out of school for quite a few months. It all sounded pretty convincing.

Then late last night someone finally dug up some pictures of Sarah Palin where she looked like she might be pregnant, possibly squashing that rumor. (The post with that info is here.)

But then again, there is still more here.

Andrew Sullivan has also been following the story closely. (Perhaps even pushing it you could say.)

This morning though, the McCain Campaign and Sarah Palin confirmed that Bristol is indeed pregnant NOW. Bristol is 17, plans to marry the father, McCain knew about it before making the choice, etc.

All I can say is that all this has been a very strange episode playing out on the internet rumor mills over the last 24 hours or so.

Hurricane Gustav is now a Cat 4. As of the 12 UTC update, looks like there is a 20% chance of hurricane force winds in New Orleans. (About a 70% chance of tropical storm force winds.) I guess that is high enough already that they are starting evacuations. Given what happened three years ago, I can’t blame them.

Having said that, there is a non-trivial chance of hurricane force winds for not only New Orleans, but the entire coastlines of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama as well as parts of the Texas and Florida coasts. Not to mention a decent ways inland in Louisiana. In terms of tropical storm force winds… looking at Hannah as well, the ENTIRE gulf coast of the US is at risk in the next five days, as well as the east coast of Florida as well. (And of course Cuba, parts of Mexico, and a large number of other Caribbean Islands.)

But.. Cat 4 (although expected to weaken before landfall), with a 20% chance of hitting New Orleans… and pretty much a 100% chance of hitting somewhere on the gulf coast… just as the Republican Convention starts.

This will be quite a week.

Once again, an update from Ivan, this time via email:

last night was a doozy internet and tv went down at 630am I am writing from my handheld as cell service is working. the winds on the beach gusted to under 100 mph. you could hear the wind and the building shook a little. this is not a weak building its reinforced concrete. by 8am the winds dided down and we haven getting steady rain. I have spoken with some of the locals and so far no major damage reported.

NHC Updates as of 12 UTC (6 hours ago):

Western Jamaica: 90% to 100% chance of tropical storm force winds, 0% chance of hurricane force winds.

New Orleans: 55% chance of tropical storm force winds, 15% chance of hurricane force winds