We’ve talked a bit on Curmudgeon’s Corner about how given the math, Hillary’s main path to a victory centers around just waiting around and hoping Obama stumbles and falls. This thing yesterday is exactly the kind of thing that should have both Hillary and McCain jumping up and down with glee.

You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest … they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

— Barack Obama, 6 Apr 2008

Note the “…” of course. This is a small bit of a much larger statement. And in context what he says makes sense as part of a larger semi-academic analysis of why certain voters tend to prefer to vote on “values issues” even when it appears to go against their direct economic interests. Of course, even with the FULL CONTEXT the statement will rub a lot of people the wrong way, and offend many others. Let alone when you take just the little bit above with no context what so ever. People are already having a field day with it.

And guess which people are the most likely to have issues with this sort of statement? Well, of course those on the right that would never consider Obama anyway, but also those independants or center-right democrats that might consider an Obama, but right now are pretty uncertain about him. Many of those folks may be Hillary voters right now, or if they were not on Thursday, they are now. And guess what, there are a bunch of these kind of voters in some states, like say… Pennsylvania!

You know, I’m starting to get Ron Paul flashbacks here. I mean, I know part of the appeal is being straightforward and saying what you really think without being overly political or pulling punches or doing that say what the audience wants to hear thing… but there is certainly a time to just SHUT THE HELL UP and not say things that will get your opponants all riled up and push the folks on the fence AWAY from you.

Sigh.

Anyway, one good set of comments on this whole hoopla is here:

Obama’s “Gaffe:” Some Perspective
(Mark Ambinder, The Atlantic)

There is some truth to this. Even John McCain has expressed a similar sentiment about immigration politics.

But the perilous words for Obama are “bitter,” “cling to,” “guns” and “religion.” Those disinclined to put themselves in Obama’s head will read the sentences and see Obama dismissing both religion and American gun culture the opiates of the masses and suggesting that their faith and lifestyle are the product of their bitterness. Voters may believe that one’s position on cultural issues is a better reflection of their inner values than one’s position on economics.

…

The elite media and most Democrats will say… “yeah.. .So? Obama is simply describing world as we know it.” His opponents and people who are inclined to view Obama as an elitist will say, “he is dismissing the culture and religion of working class whites.”

…

Despite his working class upbringing, Obama’s hyperconfidence sometimes translates as holier-than-thou, elitist, aristocratic, Dukakis-esque. Republicans know that these attributes aren’t popular in middle America, so they will use every opportunity to remind independents and moderates about them.

There are tons of comments around on these comments and their potential effects, this is one of the first I saw that seemed to give somewhat of a real analysis rather than just “Gotcha!” posts from the right side of the blogosphere. :-) Of course, I’ve been doing some other things, so I’m about 23 hours behind in Google Reader right now, so I’m sure a ton more has been said by now. :-)

Oh yeah, to be clear, I don’t think this one thing is a campaign killer or anything. It is recoverable. It is just the sort of shooting yourself in the foot that is completely unnecessary. And several of these in a row could be a big problem. But Obama SHOULD be able to recover from this one. But he has been “catching up” in PA, and this may stop that trend.

(Edit on 13 Apr 2008: Corrected the date of the Obama quote from the 11th to the 6th. It happened earlier, just didn’t hit the blogosphere until the 11th.)

It finally ended thirteen and a half hours after it started. I am home now. But I am tired, so I won’t post anything more about it here. I expect I may have a few words to say about it in the next episode of Curmudgeon’s Corner though. (Which should be out in the next 24 hours or so.)