This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon
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Notwithstanding Greg’s mean comment on my last post, it looks like I will indeed be able to retrieve everything. It will just be a fairly long semi-manual process where I have to reimport each old mailbox one at a time rather than grabbing a bunch at one time (because mail.app spins for an hour or two then crashes when I do that). And there is still a chance that I will find a corrupt mailbox in the mix somewhere. But I think I already verified that the ONE mailbox that would have had content that wasn’t duplicated elsewhere (in either a day old partial backup I had, or a two month old full backup I had) is fine. I may still be missing something, but I think at this point I feel confident I can retrieve everything, it will just take some work. I’ll do a little each evening and then try to finish up on the weekend I think.
In the mean time, I’m still not checking email regularly.
By the way, for those who haven’t listened to the podcast this week yet, over the weekend I had an email meltdown. This is a client side meltdown this time rather than a server side one. And I don’t THINK I have lost anything based on the copies I have in a few different places. I hope. But I can’t get to my mail the normal way at the moment because my client is very confused, and I can’t get to my long term email archive at all at the moment. (The long term archive is ONLY on my local machine, not on the network.) I can get to my current mail and my short term archive (which are on the network) using alternate clients on other machines, or via the web. But I am not doing so actively or regularly until I fix my local client. So if you really need to get ahold of me for something in the short term, you’re better off calling me.
Anyway, at this point I’ve tried the two or three simplest default ways of getting mail.app unconfused, and they have not worked. So after having completely backed up my mail folder, I’m off to go try more drastic things. I’m still pretty upbeat about this at this point, because I don’t think anything is actually lost. However, if over the next day or so I start discovering that I am wrong about that and part of my long term email archive actually is lost, I will get very very upset.
Sam and Ivan talk about:
- Sam: My Computer Sucks
- Ivan: Maybe I could live with Hillary
- Hillary’s Collapsing Campaign
- Hillary’s Self-Inflicted Wounds
- More Stuff Goes Missing
- Divided Republicans
- Path to a Brokered Convention
- Newt Returns?
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OK, the Republicans are looking completely fragmented, and that is tons of fun. Here they are on the states pollster.com tracks, using as the numbers the (pretty conservative) trend line they generate using the results from all the available polls:
- IA: Huckabee leads Romney by 6.3%
- NH: Romney leads McCain by 16.2%
- NV: Giuliani leads Romney by 4.8%
- SC: Romney leads Thompson by 3.0%
- FL: Giuliani leads Romney by 15.1%
- MI: Romney leads Giuliani by 1.9%
- CA: Giuliani leads Romney by 15.6%
- NY: Giuliani leads McCain by 31.7%
Now, on the Democratic side, there were only two people who were in first place in any state, and even if you count number 2 placements, it was still just Clinton and Obama with a lock on 1st and 2nd place on all of these early/important states.
But the republican side? There are 3 different candidates who are currently polling in first place in at least one of these states. And if you add in second place there are five candidates who are polling in first or second place in these states. FIVE. And in a lot of those states the gap between first and second (and sometimes third) is VERY SMALL.
What does that mean? It means crazy dynamics in the race. At least possibly. If Iowa and New Hampshire happen, and anybody who doesn’t win there collapses, it could still be over pretty quickly. But if we have different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the strength of a third candidate manages to continue despite those losses to then compete in later states, then we could still have three viable candidates getting to Super Duper Tuesday and perhaps beyond.
So here is hoping for fun and excitement in the Primary season. Giuliani seems to be in some trouble lately. I don’t want him to be president, but I’d like him to stay strong enough so that we can get Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani all winning some important states and keeping this race alive as long as possible. It would be fun to see McCain come back and win a few too, but I’m not sure he still has it in him unless the others self-destuct (which is certainly possible).
The chink in Hillary’s armor in Iowa has been expanding rapidly these last few weeks. The trend has been clear for a bit, but as of now even on pollster.com’s really conservative trend line she has lost the lead (but barely). And her lead in other states has started to slip now that her weakness is showing in Iowa. Most of this has been due to one good speech by Obama at the JJ Dinner a few weeks back, followed by a series of missteps by the Clinton campaign. (Who thought that Kindergarten thing was a good idea, really? Come one…)
Anyway, from the pollster.com trend lines in some significant states:
- IA: Obama leads Clinton by 1.5%
- NH: Clinton leads Obama by 6.0%
- NV: Clinton leads Obama by 22.1%
- SC: Clinton leads Obama by 9.7%
- FL: Clinton leads Obama by 30.9%
- MI: Clinton leads Obama by 25.4%
- CA: Clinton leads Obama by 32.0%
- NY: Clinton leads Obama by 31.9%
Uh, OK. In most states Clinton is still blowing away Obama. However, as Ivan and I have discussed on the podcast a number of times, these early states matter a lot and can change the whole dynamic of the race. Hillary has always been weak in Iowa, her lead has always been smallest there. But now it has evaporated. Although Obama’s trend line is now higher, really Iowa is now a dead heat between Clinton and Obama with Edwards in spitting distance.
And Hillary’s lead is getting smaller and smaller in New Hampshire too.
If she loses in both of those, then other states where she has huge leads right now will also suddenly be in play.
If Obama wins both he will be in a very strong position. If Edwards gets Iowa and Obama gets New Hampshire then things will just be wide open and potentially VERY interesting in January and February even on the Democratic side.
Meanwhile, and I’ll get to this in another post soon, the Republicans are a mess. Things will almost definately be VERY interesting on that side.
But it is very nice that it is starting to look like the Dems might put on a show too.
We still don’t really know what we are going to do. So after a morning just being at home, I think we are just going to wander and explore a bit in the afternoon.
My mom’s flight will be here shortly. She is visiting for a long weekend. I’ve taken today, Friday and Monday off (absent any emergencies). We haven’t really determined exactly what all we will do once she is here, but we will figure it out.
I just realized that ever since I made this post on August 21st, I have STILL been draggiing in one way or another ever since. Sometimes just lack of energy. Sometimes an outright cold or flu. Sometimes kidney stones and UTIs. But in any case, it has been OVER THREE MONTHS since I actually felt fully healthy and like there wasn’t one thing or another I either had or was getting over.
That just sucks.
Bleh.
Well, I finally gave up on time machine. I only had it actually working successfully for a few days. Even then, it was only doing “hourly” backups every few hours. But then my computer crashed at some point while it was doing one of the hourlys. And it could never recover. It would think for a couple days, then Time Machine would crash. And then it would try again. Wash Rinse Repeat. If I zeroed everything and had it start from scratch, it would start an initial backup, but it would go slowly (at a pace to do my whole 500GB drive in about a week) and some random thing or other would crash the computer before it was done, and once again it would never recover.
I used to use Super Duper! to do my daily backups, but it is not yet Leopard compatible, although the developer says “soon”. So I am now in the process of trying out Carbon Copy Cloner. As I speak it is doing an initial backup of my drive. The computer crashed last night while it was doing things, but CCC was able to just pick up and do a new incremental backup instead of getting confused. So crossing my fingers that I’ll get a new good backup again, and then nightly backups will resume.
I really really wanted to use Time Machine. It was one of the BIG things I wanted from Leopard. And I still really want to use it. I will probably try it again when Apple releases 10.5.2, and 10.5.3… etc, until hopefully eventually it works well for me. Sigh.
(And yes, I’ve tried all the things I’ve found on a bunch of different forums for making Time Machine work faster/better/at all, but no luck.)
In the mean time, CCC for now.
Sam talks about:
- Election Update
- Holiday Shopping
- Snow in Seattle
- Dog Coats
- CIA Tapes
- Dem Leadership
- Time Machine Woes
- Being On Call
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