Abulsme.com

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-13 (UTC)

00:09:29 Still waiting for Michigan. In the meantime, listen to my podcast for a preview of the post-mortem. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
00:10:45 Retweeted @librab103 00:05:36 @ElecCollPolls everybody but AP has called it. in reply to ElecCollPolls
00:10:47 Retweeted @ElecCollPolls 00:10:36 .@librab103 I’m going by CNN. They don’t seem to have called it yet. If others have in the last few hours though, they probably will soon. in reply to librab103
00:20:14 .@librab103 Do you have a link? I just checked a handful of sites and none had called Michigan yet.
00:32:20 Retweeted @librab103 00:31:51 @ElectionGraphs more of unofficially calling MI. State EB looks like it will not be until the end of the month. in reply to ElectionGraphs
00:33:45 .@librab103 Right. Everybody has Trump ahead, but as far as I know nobody has officially "called it". That is what I am waiting for. in reply to librab103

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-13 (UTC)

00:02:57 Still waiting for Michigan. In the meantime, listen to my podcast for a preview of the post-mortem. https://t.co/qfYKpezdR2
00:09:44 Retweeted @librab103 00:05:36 @ElecCollPolls everybody but AP has called it. in reply to ElecCollPolls
00:10:36 .@librab103 I’m going by CNN. They don’t seem to have called it yet. If others have in the last few hours though, they probably will soon. in reply to librab103

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-13 (UTC)

00:12:32 Retweeted @DaveMc99TA 00:11:25 Anyone know when there will be new Trump polls? Curious if there is regret or if these rallies in cities are causing people to support him.
00:12:56 Retweeted @aravosis 00:11:01 This gentleman is on CNN right now talking about how we all have to organize against Trump. He supported Jill SteinвЂ¦ https://t.co/sA0KGr6hvU
00:35:31 Retweeted @GeorgeTakei 00:34:42 Most Trump supporters voted for him DESPITE his racism and misogyny. So most also don't like these traits. Therein lies some common ground.
00:40:37 Retweeted @mattyglesias 00:31:59 The narrowness of this is why debating the One True Cause is so silly. Everything matters when it's this close. https://t.co/Opf86M89s2
02:18:19 Retweeted @Redistrict 2016-11-12 22:24:30 Donald Trump's share of the popular vote just fell to 47.1%, which puts him below Mitt Romney's 47.2% in '12: https://t.co/j58GaxfPmH
02:25:45 Retweeted @nxthompson 02:01:18 Highest Presidential vote getters in US history:
1) Barack Obama
2) Hillary Clinton
3) George W Bush
4) Donald Trump
02:26:10 Retweeted @ananavarro 02:02:20 Today, I cried for 1st time since election. Not for me. I have a platform & powerful friends. I cried for the voiceless ppl living in fear.
03:26:57 Retweeted @nielslesniewski 2016-11-12 23:07:35 Reminder: Mike Lee, Ben Sasse, Jeff Flake and Lindsey Graham can stop anything President-elect Trump wants to do that requires Congress.
03:27:02 Retweeted @goldengateblond 02:00:35 Add Collins, Murkowski and McCain as possible blocks (depending on the issue) and maybe all is not lost. Maaaaaybe. https://t.co/TWb7C3FGh2
03:42:08 Retweeted @samsteinhp 2016-11-12 19:19:21 There may be swastikas popping up, and spikes in hate speech, and major conflcits of interest, but at least they're not using private email
03:45:56 Retweeted @jbarro 2016-11-12 19:14:59 This is widely retweeted and wrong. Democrats control at least one chamber in *17* states. Do not need both chamberвЂ¦ https://t.co/xRqBZYogze
15:12:55 Retweeted @MaggieJordanACN 2016-09-04 23:22:42 Take a couple of minutes to watch.
Former CNN host Soledad O'Brien tells CNN: "You have normalized" White Supremacy
https://t.co/lHxHDRdq7t
15:13:31 Watching – Dave Chappelle Stand-Up Monologue (SNL) https://t.co/6p1PBASNAE
15:14:10 Retweeted @joshrogin 14:18:18 Giuliani to @jaketapper on ethics laws on conflicts of interests: "Those laws don't apply to the president." I feel so much better.
15:26:48 Retweeted @matthewjdowd 13:39:12 Until Dems learn how to compete in rural and small towns, and GOP in urban areas, our country will remain very divided.
15:40:31 Retweeted @MikeDrucker 15:25:03 THINK PIECE: Hillary Clinton would've won the presidency if a butterfly didn't flap its wings in Thailand in 1975.
15:51:57 Now that the election is over, finally installing Sierra on my main Mac…
15:57:17 Retweeted @BrendanNyhan 15:45:32 Incoming administration issuing legal threats against their political opponents. Day 5. https://t.co/DNp0K3aRlE
16:00:40 Retweeted @AndyHarless 15:24:34 A nasty thing about narrow losses is there are 100 different things to which they can accurately be attributed, including luck of the draw.
19:28:28 Retweeted @BBCSteveR 17:37:53 Russian TV predicts under Trump 'there'll be fewer lies & similar rubbish dressed up in pretty words..like 'democracy' & 'human rights'".
20:49:16 Retweeted @MarcACaputo 20:35:39 Reince Priebus will be chief of staff, source who spoke to Trump tells me. Announcement could come in the next half hour
20:53:10 Retweeted @nkjemisin 20:47:58 Thread! https://t.co/uapl1C8Vga
20:56:04 Retweeted @jkelly3rd 20:36:34 Again the people saying they want less bias in news actually want more bias in news. They just want the "news" to sвЂ¦ https://t.co/cgT8vaxQv1
21:25:13 Retweeted @frankthorp 21:25:04 JUST IN: Not only is @reince Trump's new Chief of Staff, but Steve Bannon is now "Chief Strategist & Senior CounselвЂ¦ https://t.co/qR6F3SndPg
22:27:06 Retweeted @BrendanNyhan 21:47:09 Kasich strategist. This is not normal. https://t.co/8WM5YCpE8o

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-12 (UTC)

00:55:13 Still waiting on Michigan. :-) https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
23:51:59 Contains discussion of things that will be in my wrap up once MI is called -> Curmudgeon's Corner: Under the Thumb https://t.co/zdabsz1CzT

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-12 (UTC)

23:52:12 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 23:51:59 Contains discussion of things that will be in my wrap up once MI is called -> Curmudgeon’s Corner: Under the Thumb https://t.co/zdabsz1CzT

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-12 (UTC)

00:33:45 Listening to BhTV: Drezburt (audio) Heather Hurlburt & Daniel Drezner
via iCatcher! https://t.co/5NLmPEICph
00:57:16 Retweeted @Politics1com 00:43:28 PEOTUS Trump "may not spend much time trying to get Mexico to pay for [the Wall], but it was a great campaign device" – Newt Gingrich
01:04:36 Reading – A letter to today’s young people (Marco Arment) https://t.co/R9OrKlOKcM
01:20:24 Listening to Rationally Speaking #171 – Scott Aaronson on "The ethics and strategy of vote trading"
via iCatcher! https://t.co/DVYqjjefCP
01:47:59 Listening to Astronomy News The news – November 2016
via iCatcher! https://t.co/vURlb4FoCH
01:53:50 Listening to New Yorker: Comment Another Round
via iCatcher! https://t.co/b14LCn5qet
02:05:26 Including @B_M_Finnigan! -> Listening to No One Knows Anything Making The Call On Election Night https://t.co/pwSmBvuMsP
02:25:32 Reading – Smallest sliver of time yet measured sees electrons fleeing atom (Rebecca Boyle) https://t.co/GgrMVXV1ox
02:25:51 Retweeted @secupp 2016-11-11 18:07:30 The winner of the Bannon v. Priebus COS battle will answer basically every question about Pres-elect Trump's plans.
02:27:46 Retweeted @michaelbd 2016-11-11 17:52:52 Rust-Belt voters: "SAVE OUR JOBS!"
GOP: "Give your SS to our fund manager friends and privatize Medicaid. We hear you loud and clear!"
02:41:42 Retweeted @MirandaSajdak 02:06:17 thread https://t.co/o4DU2155cQ
02:53:30 Reading – Donald Trump Prepares for White House Move, but His Tower May Still Beckon (Haberman/Parker) https://t.co/thUTly9vxj
03:26:07 Retweeted @MiltShook 03:25:08 I'm just tired of so-called "progs" who spent 2 yrs trashing Dems and then blame the Dems for the election. You're all idiots.
03:36:56 Retweeted @UrbanAchievr 03:08:55 Time to retire the "take Trump seriously, but not literally" formulation. When you're president, everything you say will be taken literally.
03:43:45 Retweeted @paulwaldman1 03:15:45 Can everyone stop praising Trump every time he acts like a civilized human being for 5 minutes? Is this really how he's going to be judged?
03:49:15 Retweeted @masayume85 2016-11-11 03:23:50 Best post I've seen all day. Source: https://t.co/JboZm66uVb https://t.co/BnFyEKBZeo
04:38:27 Reading – What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class (Joan Williams) https://t.co/sAufvaqjVy
04:49:32 Reading – The Death Of Expertise (Tom Nichols) https://t.co/KerDWfRNJj
04:57:18 Reading – Clinton’s Substantial Popular-Vote Win (David Leonhardt) https://t.co/DDJi28aqrv
04:57:23 Retweeted @DLeonhardt 2016-11-11 15:08:50 Popular-vote margin:
Clinton 2016: ~+1.5% pts
Nixon 1968: +0.7%
Gore 2000: +0.5%
JFK 1960: +0.2%

https://t.co/jFCDMJJTD5
17:07:55 Retweeted @hominidviews 03:53:38 @paulwaldman1 @abulsme It's the soft bigotry of low expectations. in reply to paulwaldman1
17:07:57 Retweeted @BYUfan 06:30:40 @DLeonhardt @abulsme the democrats have concentrated themselves into the cities. This pattern will continue until they have broader appeal. in reply to DLeonhardt
17:08:24 Retweeted @marcportermagee 15:32:41 Democrats now control only 13 state legislatures (26%). If they lose 1 more they fall below the % needed to stop coвЂ¦ https://t.co/Hqn9JcH1qv
17:10:21 Retweeted @cd_hooks 16:43:46 Republicans have 33 red-red legislatures (plus Nebraska) one shy of the # to call an Article V constitutional conveвЂ¦ https://t.co/ZR5m3edgO1 in reply to cd_hooks
17:20:20 Retweeted @Rainmaker1973 13:45:08 The angular size of the part of #Earth's surface directly under several space objects https://t.co/NNnVf6fleM byвЂ¦ https://t.co/Au7Hs7il6W
17:27:39 Retweeted @bdomenech 13:56:22 Trump won 209 of the nearly 700 counties that voted for Obama twice.
2,200 counties never supported Obama. Clinton won 6.

Six.
17:27:50 Retweeted @scalzi 17:02:16 Feel very bad for the folks who apparently think "We voted for a racist because you all said we were racists" is in any way a good argument.
17:44:32 .@B_M_Finnigan Any idea what timelines are on remaining Michigan counting and when folks might finally start to call it?
17:48:15 Retweeted @NateSilver538 17:00:02 AвЂ”There's a 30% chance of an earthquake
BвЂ”LOL ur crazy no way it's that high
{{earthquake}}
BвЂ”Idiot! You said a 70% chance of no earthquake
18:48:54 Retweeted @KristiCCoulter 18:24:49 @abulsme @B_M_Finnigan They're STILL counting?! in reply to abulsme
18:49:51 .@KristiCCoulter @B_M_Finnigan Counting still going on in many states. It takes awhile. Most outlets have called all but Michigan though. in reply to KristiCCoulter
19:12:20 Retweeted @kdrum 18:55:04 FFS, people, nobody "cheated" in the Democratic primary. Can't we at least put that brand of idiocy to bed?
19:27:05 Retweeted @B_M_Finnigan 17:55:15 @abulsme think people are waiting for re-canvass, everything is in. I mean it looks pretty clear he won it so long as a clerk didn't eff up. in reply to abulsme
19:27:46 .@B_M_Finnigan When will those things happen? Talking hours, days, or weeks? in reply to B_M_Finnigan
19:32:04 Retweeted @JSchanzer 18:35:16 Epic trolling https://t.co/6R7ZzL7bTh
20:25:41 Retweeted @mattyglesias 20:24:27 As best I can tell neither party's senate caucus engaged in any planning for the scenario in which Trump won the election.
20:32:57 Retweeted @brokenglobalism 20:32:32 @abulsme @B_M_Finnigan By 11/22 apparently. See page 11: https://t.co/hnbJsFQbdG https://t.co/d83qC8Tv6t in reply to abulsme
20:33:26 Retweeted @brokenglobalism 20:33:17 @abulsme @B_M_Finnigan or 11/28 actually. Language is vague. in reply to brokenglobalism
20:38:06 .@brokenglobalism @B_M_Finnigan That’s a long time! 2012 had all states called in 4 days. 2008 was 15 days. This would be 20! (2000 was 36.) in reply to brokenglobalism
20:39:58 Retweeted @CNN 20:33:23 "It's a little nutty": Poll expert @SamWangPhD eats a bug live on air after being wrong about Trump winвЂ¦ https://t.co/veyEBVQLtj
20:42:48 Retweeted @natsecHeather 20:42:38 And have i mentioned the two swastika incidents at elementary and middle schools here in Montgomery County, MD? https://t.co/iCba71Xhrb
20:45:21 Retweeted @brokenglobalism 20:44:49 @abulsme @B_M_Finnigan The strange thing about MI/NH not yet being called is, I think both have already counted provisionals, and neither 1/ in reply to abulsme
20:45:23 Retweeted @brokenglobalism 20:45:13 @abulsme @B_M_Finnigan is within a close enough margin for an automatic recount. Very strange either way. 2/2 in reply to brokenglobalism
20:47:06 .@brokenglobalism @B_M_Finnigan Some have called NH. I’ve not heard much doubt about MI. Must be some though or they would have called it. in reply to brokenglobalism
21:00:52 Retweeted @PatrickRuffini 20:59:43 In 2012, the two major candidates collectively got 95% in the final polling average & 98% in the election. In 2016, 89% polls & 95% votes. in reply to PatrickRuffini
21:01:02 Retweeted @PatrickRuffini 20:51:42 Republicans are winning the popular vote in the House by 3.9 million votes. https://t.co/sqKwiylWV2
21:09:41 Retweeted @jere7my 17:49:21 @ragged_write @scalzi @abulsme It would be "those are false stories invented by Trump and the alt-right to win an election." in reply to ragged_write
21:09:44 Retweeted @jere7my 17:50:56 @ragged_write @scalzi @abulsme Btw, the validity of "But…but…CLINTON!" as an argument is dropping asymptotically to zero very rapidly. in reply to jere7my
21:33:44 Yup. Including me. -> It Wasn't the Polls That Missed, It Was the Pundits (Sean Trende) https://t.co/FDg5tHHr7T
22:09:51 Reading – The advertising decisions that helped doom Hillary Clinton (Jim Tankersley) https://t.co/LQMNx57vyR
23:51:03 [Blog Post] Curmudgeon's Corner: Under the Thumb https://t.co/i7qn6e8PYF

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Under the Thumb

Election 2016 is done! Trump won! Everybody is surprised! So of course we have a super-long election wrap up! Darryl joins Sam and Ivan to discuss the Election Graphs and Horsesass electoral college models, what went right, what went wrong, and what we can learn for next time. Then all three discuss the reaction to and ramifications of Trump’s victory. For maybe the last time for a few years, it is an all election, all politics show!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
View Podcast in iTunes
View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook
Support us on Patreon

Show Details:

Recorded 2016-11-11
Length this week – 2:24:32

(0:00:10-1:05:00) Polling Post Mortem
- Surprise!
- Darryl’s Final Projections
- Suspicious Polls
- Where polls went wrong
- Sources of poll uncertainty
- Last minute Trump surge?
- Actually very very close
- National polls
- Sam’s post mortem
- Problems with the odds
- Turnout
(1:06:10-2:24:12) The Aftermath
- Our reactions
- Reactions from the right
- Trump’s appeal to the white working class
- Clinton’s weaknesses
- Republican Obstruction strategy
- Would Sanders have won?
- Should Democrats obstruct?
- The Republican agenda
- Anti-Trump protests
- Which Trump do we get?
- Future of the parties
- Bold Predictions
- Calling Trump voters racist
- Radicalization

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-11 (UTC)

01:29:20 Still waiting on a call for Michigan from CNN. In 2012 it took 90 hours for the last state. We’re at 49 and a bit. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
16:10:32 Retweeted @Cat_in_Florida 04:53:04 @ElectionGraphs will that result change anything? If not, than why bother even posting about it? Just sayin'. in reply to ElectionGraphs
16:11:32 .@Cat_in_Florida It will change if Trump wins by 42 EV or 74 EV. We know the winner at this point, but not the actual final result. in reply to Cat_in_Florida
16:12:13 .@Cat_in_Florida We’ll also update in December if there are any faithless electors to make sure the total properly reflects them. in reply to ElectionGraphs
16:13:18 64 hours in & still waiting for Wisconsin. In 2012 it took 90 hours for the last state. In 2008 it took 477 hours. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
16:26:00 A note on tracking until the very lastвЂ¦ https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-11 (UTC)

00:34:48 Retweeted @DaveedGR 00:31:17 JOE: How do we convince America it voted wrong?
SALLY: Hey, let's burn American flags & shout "FвЂ” white America"!

https://t.co/yBmxWflo1I
01:09:07 Reading – Farewell, America (Neal Gabler) https://t.co/zbBCCv6SbX
02:03:23 Retweeted @LPDonovan 01:42:49 Of the 77% w/ a favorable view of one or they other, they broke for that candidate 98-1
But 18% disliked both…вЂ¦ https://t.co/4URgvNh4ei in reply to LPDonovan
02:04:12 Retweeted @LPDonovan 01:25:41 Two #s in the exits that stood out to me.
1. "Can bring change" was top named quality voters wanted (~2x next highвЂ¦ https://t.co/kptNczb0tJ in reply to LPDonovan
02:04:33 Retweeted @LPDonovan 01:11:53 Clearly the polls were terrible where it mattered- in this case MI/WI/PA. But all three saw a disproportionate break for him at the end. in reply to LPDonovan
02:28:59 Retweeted @RosieGray 02:27:54 The next POTUS. https://t.co/xljvPVqShj
02:46:52 Retweeted @sdkstl 02:26:46 Maybe you missed it – your supporters suggested pitchforks, torches and muskets for post-election protests if you lвЂ¦ https://t.co/Y9zPAlWn1y
02:47:14 Retweeted @timothypmurphy 01:29:57 Ellison's vision of a new DNC: "Not polls first, not models first, but voters first"
02:48:07 Retweeted @SwiftOnSecurity 02:25:55 Oh my god they gave him the Galaxy S4 back https://t.co/avEsdkCctg
05:58:59 Retweeted @BrashEQLibrium 05:57:35 This is how you do it! Tell the peaceful protesters where to go, corral the asshats ruining it for the peaceful proвЂ¦ https://t.co/7MUbcr2txi
15:55:33 Retweeted @drskyskull 03:26:25 Perhaps the most insightful political comment I've seen in the election aftermath from a very smart friend of mine. https://t.co/uMjbm2LIOF
16:42:24 Retweeted @eliasisquith 16:23:15 Remember: This is him at the pinnacle. Think about what he'll be like when the job is no longer new & fun and his aвЂ¦ https://t.co/LY14rsQYgM
16:54:58 Watching – The Morning After (Samantha Bee) https://t.co/WlPaRTYkBo
17:54:49 Retweeted @ryanstruyk 17:14:14 In Florida, black voters went for Obama 95-4% in '12. This year, they went for Clinton 84-8% w/ 4% Stein — worst support for Dem since '88.
18:29:41 Reading – The Pendulum Swings Both Ways (Alex Young) https://t.co/nZgm9xfEcc
18:47:23 Retweeted @Redistrict 17:19:30 Republicans appear to have won 55% of House seats w/ ~49% of the vote – a continuation of last few cycles. https://t.co/TtjnXcWhcX
21:07:48 Retweeted @SimonMaloy 20:39:02 the new president is about to learn, for the first time, because he's ignorant as hell, that health policy is extremely hard
21:43:36 Reading – Mike Pence Takes Over Transition Team From Chris Christie (Matt Shuman) https://t.co/mTdBg5xoIX
21:48:34 Reading – Donald Trump’s questionable вЂblind trust’ setup just got more questionable (Aaron Blake) https://t.co/riKGQ5fBFB
21:58:32 Reading – David Plouffe: What I Got Wrong About the Election https://t.co/hOXDmVslRP
21:59:52 Retweeted @NoahCRothman 20:33:40 In the last 72 hours, Trump & co. have walked back his position on:
The Wall
Trade
Punishing China
Mideast policy
Repealing Obamacare.
22:05:50 Retweeted @ggreenwald 20:53:21 Worth remembering https://t.co/set8mPIWHt https://t.co/hjaeLvOpE2
22:12:38 Retweeted @ggreenwald 17:13:29 Trump is a fascist, racist, authoritarian acting as a Kremlin agent, and we must keep an open mind & respect his win. Is that the message?
22:19:39 Listening to The Axe Files with David Axelrod Ep. 95 – Van Jones
via iCatcher! https://t.co/NIQHxVeGKd
23:03:36 Listening to Common Sense with Dan Carlin Show 311 – Trumped
via iCatcher! https://t.co/nqcf9mp3Tl

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-10 (UTC)

00:01:24 It has been 24 hours since the first states closed. Still waiting on New Hampshire and Michigan. It may be awhile. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
02:07:41 New Hampshire called for Clinton, which was expected. Only Michigan outstanding. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
13:15:36 Still waiting on CNN to call Michigan. https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4
20:36:21 My draft of my post mortem is ready except for knowing the final call on Michigan. Come on CNN! :-) https://t.co/gmUwTGIkPE

Site Controls

Categories

Calendar

Search New Archive

AbulWiki

Other Stuff

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-13 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-13 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-13 (UTC)

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-12 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-11-12 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-12 (UTC)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Under the Thumb

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-11 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-11-11 (UTC)

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-11-10 (UTC)

Twitter Archives

Archives

Site Controls

Categories

Calendar

Search New Archive

AbulWiki

Other Stuff

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Twitter Archives

Archives