- 01:10:02 Watching – Theatre "Baikal" | COVER | Game Of Thrones Theme https://t.co/nHSSDkiija
- 01:21:32 Retweeted @Popehat 2016-05-13 23:10:30 I ask you, who among us hasn't called up reporters from celebrity gossip rags to boast of conquests of supermodels, posing as a publicist?
- 03:32:40 Watching – Can a Chipotle Burrito Protect iPhone 6s from 100 FT Drop Test? – GizmoSlip https://t.co/JuxAyzrns1
- 16:41:37 Watching – Solution to the Grandfather Paradox (MinutePhysics) https://t.co/L6WzDftpB4
- 19:29:25 [Blog Post] Curmudgeon's Corner: It works better in the ear https://t.co/Bhq2wedTfw
- 20:06:56 Retweeted @sergiogarcia_4 2016-05-13 22:13:55 So I went hiking today and I thought that this bear died for a second <symbol><symbol> https://t.co/AW3YzsrBrM
- 20:16:27 Watching – Area of a Circle through the lens of Unit Squares (@PaulaKrieg) https://t.co/SwbgG7FIIY
- 20:47:21 Listening to KCRW's Left, Right & Center Trump & Ryan Meet, Appealing to Minority Voters
via iCatcher! https://t.co/jFCneCIzEy
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This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan talk about television, thermostats, manipulating public opinion and a few other things besides Election 2016, but of course most of the show ends up being about the election. They cover the last gasp Sanders path to the nomination, Trump zig-zagging on the issues, the Republican civil war, and possible Trump VPs. Oh, and Sam’s son Alex keeps interrupting to promote his YouTube channel. Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Length this week – 1:35:45
Show Details:
With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening. After Indiana, Trump needed 36.02% of the remaining delegates to win. In Nebraska and West Virginia, Trump seems to have gotten all 70 of the available delegates. (There may end up being some oddness due to West Virginia geographic restrictions on delegate allocation that shifts this slightly.) In other changes since Indiana due to uncommitted delegate preference changes in American Samoa and Louisiana as well as Louisiana’s Rubio delegates moving to Trump, there were net changes of: Trump +14, Cruz -3, Rubio -5. So total change since Indiana: Trump +84, Cruz -3, Rubio -5 So Trump actually got 111% of the delegates since Indiana. (Over 100% is possible since he actually took delegates from his opponents as well as collecting “new” delegates.) So Trump obviously well exceeded the required numbers to be on pace for a win. Updated graphs:
New delegate totals: Trump 1142, Cruz 571, Rubio 168, Kasich 156, Carson 7, Bush 4, Fiorina 1, Huckabee 1, Paul 1. There are 421 delegates left. Trump needs 95 of them.
Trump now needs 22.57% of the remaining delegates to win. Update 2016-05-14 14:31 UTC: Once the geographic restrictions on delegates was finalized and factored in, the final results in West Virginia were officially Trump 30, Kasich 1, Uncommitted 3. Two of the three uncommitted delegates have stated they are for Trump though, so we count this as Trump 32, Kasich 1, TBD 1. Net change from before: Trump -2, Kasich +1. Update 2016-05-17 17:03 UTC: Update from New York. Net change: Trump -1, Kasich +1. Update 2016-05-18 17:26 UTC: Update from Guam uncommitted delegates. Net Change Trump +9, Cruz -1. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening. After Guam, Sanders needed 84.23% of the remaining delegates to win, Clinton only needed 15.95%. In West Virginia, Sanders got 18, Clinton got 11. In other changes since Guam due to superdelegate updates and revisions in the results from Maine, there was a net change of Clinton +1, Sanders +1. So total change since Guam: Sanders +19, Clinton +12. That is Sanders 61.29%, Clinton 38.71%. So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not. Updated graphs:
New delegate totals: Clinton 2220, Sanders 1478, O’Malley 1. There are 1066 delegates left. Clinton needs 163 of them. Sanders needs 905 of them.
Clinton now needs 15.29% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 84.90%. Update 2016-05-14 16:09: Superdelegate scan yields net change Clinton +2. Update 2016-05-17 16:56: Superdelegate scan yields net change Clinton -2. Update 2016-05-18 14:44: Superdelegate scan yields net change Clinton +1, Sanders -1 Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. |
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