- 00:02:36 Found a small toy poodle running loose in the neighborhood about 7 hr ago. Put up “found lost dog” signs. Hope owner sees soon and calls.
- 00:03:47 Giving it until folks start getting home from work, then taking him to get checked for a chip. No collar or tags. Also posted on NextDoor.
- 00:05:03 Very friendly. Sticking right with me at all times. Looks like an older dog. Nice guy.
- 00:30:44 Retweeted @ScottNY71 00:15:56 @abulsme I found this an odd coincidence in my timeline just now. http://t.co/oczx2aYpC5 in reply to abulsme
- 01:19:34 Coco has been returned.
- 17:51:50 New @ppppolls results from NH added. Details at http://t.co/EZdmGlTAg8 and @ElecCollPolls. Some notable moves, so blog post later today.
- 18:16:59 Retweeted @ScottNY71 18:08:51 I'm waiting to call a customer service line and hear "Please enter your telephone number as 10 digits followed by the hashtag key".
- 21:03:42 [Abulpost] Curmudgeon's Corner: Four Rounds is Enough http://t.co/EqW5BKXjj6
- 23:24:55 [Abulpost] Electoral College: First good news for Clinton in months! http://t.co/UiPt0WPeZk
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I’ve mentioned a number of times at this point that Clinton has had a long streak of bad news. The last time one of my updates was unambiguously positive for Clinton was back in May! That streak ends today, with movement in New Hampshire prompted by a new PPP poll. Three of the top five best polled candidate combinations flipped from “Weak Republican” to “Weak Clinton” because of this update:
So for Rubio, Paul and Walker, New Hampshire flips back to blue (although not by much). Clinton vs Bush just narrowly avoided doing the same thing, as Bush’s margin declined from 1.6% to 0.2%, but didn’t quite pass over the line. New Hampshire is a little state. Only 4 electoral votes. If you look at the “expected cases” this just makes a small move for each of these three candidates:
As a move, this isn’t all that much. And Clinton is significantly ahead on this metric against all five Republicans. So New Hampshire’s electoral votes aren’t determining the outcome here. But after three months solid of posts where I’ve been talking about how the Republican position is getting stronger, and Clinton’s position was getting weaker, is there significance to a move, any move, actually going in Clinton’s direction? Well, maybe. But one point does not make a trend. This could be an indicator that Clinton has bottomed for now and we’re not going to see further declines for the time being. Or, just as easily, perhaps these PPP results are a significant outlier, and not representative of an actual change of mood in New Hampshire, in which case the next New Hampshire polls may pull the state back into the red zone. As usual, we will just have to wait and see. In the meantime though, Clinton’s losing streak has been broken. 493.0 days until polls start closing. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them. After skipping the Lightning round last week, on this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan once again go all Lightning Round. We cover a huge range of topics, including office chairs, Sesame Street, the stock market, Donald Trump, Ashley Madison, the Galaxy Note 5, setting the temperature in buildings, Joe Biden… and lots more.
Length this week – 1:51:21
Show Details:
The streak continues. More bad news for Clinton. This time in Michigan. With the addition of Michigan polls from Mitchell and EPIC-MRA, Michigan moves from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton:
This pattern, a hockey stick type movement away from Clinton and toward various Republicans, has now shown up on the charts for quite a few different states, across a wide variety of Republicans. One or two of these in isolation look like outliers, but together they look like a real movement. Over the last few months Clinton has been weakening, and weakening quickly and dramatically. So far, none of the Republicans are leading overall, but the best cases from Rubio and Bush both now include winning, and with Michigan now on the potential list for Bush as well, he improves his best case further:
Bush’s best case, where he wins all of the states where he leads, plus all the states where Clinton is ahead by less than 5%, now is Clinton 237, Bush 301, a 64 electoral vote win for Bush. The expected case is still a 90 electoral vote loss for Bush, but he’s only a handful of close states away from a win. If the drumbeat against Clinton continues, do not be surprised if some of those states start to flip. Clinton can’t be happy here. She is now below 50% in the Real Clear Politics national view of the Democratic nomination race, and her position in the general election has been slipping fast against the major Republican contenders. No wonder we’re getting all the Biden buzz, and people keep looking at Sanders. Right now she is showing weakness. The question is if she hits a floor, or keeps falling. And if she does keep falling, who takes advantage of it? 441.7 days until the polls start closing. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.
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