Reading – Snowden Documents Reveal Covert Surveillance and Pressure Tactics Aimed at WikiLeaks (Greenwald/Gallagher) https://t.co/XFtrwK6E2m08:29:34
More 2016 poll stuff. Just finished data entry on the 1996 elections. This means I have now switched everything to 5 poll averages. 16:40:43
In places where there are not enough real polls on current catalogs I backfill with actual elections. Five is my target, so here I am! :-) 16:41:51
I’ve used 5 poll averages in the last couple elections, and it has seemed to do fine. In the past I haven’t backfilled more than 2 elex tho. 16:42:36
This gives a better “background” for unpolled states though, although one could argue that 5 elex back is a very long time (20 years). 16:43:20
It also means 3 Dem victories and 2 Rep victories. If I wanted to be “even” I could choose 4, 8 or 10 elex. But I’ve done 5 poll avg, so… 16:47:58
Anyway, this gives an interesting baseline: the 5 poll avg using just last 5 elex, no new polls on 2016 candidates: http://t.co/kVzlx0sf6x16:49:16
“Close” states (under 5% margin in 5 elex avg) end up as Missouri, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Nevada. http://t.co/kVzlx0sf6x16:50:30
Dem’s have a slight advantage, with a 1.66% “tipping point” in Ohio. Range goes from 24 EV Rep win to 146 EV Dem win as close states swing. 16:52:03
Of course, we already do have some very limited polling on specific candidate pairings for 2016 that moves that. Ex: http://t.co/K5o22cJeW916:55:41
We are along way from having enough data to even be too meaningful as a snapshot, let alone a prediction though & I know I am missing polls. 16:56:48
But I am happy to slowly but surely be getting my infrastructure in place to track this stuff. I still have a long to do list though. 16:58:10
Getting 2 actually having enough historical data to do five poll avg in all states (inc elex) is a milestone though. I’m happy about it. :-) 16:59:13
Important -> Reading – Does Anyone Else Realize The Federal Debt Ceiling Was ELIMINATED? (Stan Collender) http://t.co/f3VnR1F6fc18:11:00
