Someone apparently found this post I made when filling out my primary ballot earlier this year. This person emailed me yesterday to know that they are writing me in for Washington Supreme Court Position #7. I’ll probably end up voting for myself again in the general election as well, since the person on the ballot still has no competition. So I’ll have a whole TWO VOTES! My nefarious plan to take over the whole world takes another step forward! :-)
Which reminds me, time is short. I need to start work on my general election ballot shortly.
And so I had to Google it. I found an story on it on Geekologie from last month. Some of the comments are great. Some highlights:
“I’ve got some bad news for you, Snuggie — you’re just a fucking robe.”
“YAY I can be Obi Wan AND comfy at the same time”
“It also comes in handy for those impromptu Pagan rituals that are oh so prevalent this time of year! YAY!”
“Worker – Boss, remember those really cheap ponchos we ordered? They all showed up slit up the back. Boss – Don’t worry, We’ll sell them to really stupid people as a blanket with sleeves.”
“I have a Cuddle Wrap which is pretty much the same thing. I’ve been known to wear it for several days straight when I become a deranged hermit in the winter months.”
“Didnt Alvin and the Chipmunks wear these like back in the 80’s?”
He was relaxed. He seemed comfortable. He was self-depreciating. He was funny. He seemed like a nice guy. He looked and sounded like the “old McCain” from eight years ago.
If this was the McCain we’d been seeing since June, this would be a closer race than it is today.
And this may very well still give him a few points of lift before we get to Tuesday.
So, I’ve once again been slow posting, but a couple of weeks ago, the three of us went out to the movies. This was an Amy and Brandy choice, and not the sort of movie I’d usually choose to go to, but I’d picked the last movie, so we went to Quarantine. I’d never heard of it at all before going, so other than Brandy and Amy telling me it was a horror/suspense sort of thing, I had no expectations whatsoever. It turns out it is actually a remake of REC a 2007 film from Spain. I put that film on my Netflix list. Sounds like it is pretty similar other than being in Spanish.
Anyway, the main interesting bit about this film, is the whole thing is done Blair Witch style with a handheld camera. This time instead of some random kids doing the camerawork though, it is a local news reporter working on a story of the average night in the life of a firehouse full of firefighters. There is about 20 minutes of just goofing around in the firehouse, then the alarm rings and the fun begins. It is not a fire though.
The go to a building for a medical situation, and then the building gets locked down. As the name would imply, there is a quarantine, and there is a highly contagious thing going around. The fear and suspense builds, and then you get the normal horror movie sort of thing where one by one the people get infected and/or killed.
I won’t give any more away, but I will say that it was pretty decent. I liked it. It was tense at time. At other points it was actually very funny. I’m not sure if it was SUPPOSED to be funny. But horrible things would be happening on screen, but the entire theater would just be laughing at it because it was, well, sort of funny.
The one other note I have, is that the people in the row behind us WOULD NOT SHUT UP FOR THE ENTIRE MOVIE. They were talking CONSTANTLY. Sometimes things about the movie, sometimes just random chatter. I wanted to scream at them, but I did not. I just sat there and stewed in my anger. I can’t stand it when people talk in movies. Reacting when things happen on screen, laughing, gasping, whatever… that is fine… and actually is one of the unique bits that going to the theater can bring that you don’t get watching a movie at home… but a constant stream of talking? And not just whispering either, but often full volume talking? That is just obnoxious and rude. Grrr…
Anyway, decent movie. Not amazing. Not worth a second view. But fine for killing a few hours on a weekend. It probably would have been OK to wait for the DVD though.
In today’s update we have 41 new polls in 21 different states, but only two states change status. (Plus, I have a correction on the status of one additional state, see the end of the post.)
The two changes:
Missouri (11 ev): After being “Lean Obama” for most of October, McCain takes the lead in the last five poll average in the state of Missouri, moving the state back to “Lean McCain”. I do note that the largest lead Obama ever had in the state was 3.5%, and now McCain’s lead is 0.4%. Both “Lean” categories are considered “Swing States” for a reason. The polls are close enough that random poll variation could easily push a candidate from one side to another, or any random event that gains traction could move the state from one category to another at any moment. So these states should be considered too close to call, regardless of which side of the line they are on.
Arizona (10 ev): Arizona became a swing state a few days ago, then McCain had a couple of good polls and the state moved back to “Weak McCain”. Today, with some additional polls showing a close race again, as of today McCain’s lead is once again under 5%, and the state is once again “Lean McCain”. It is once again a swing state, and it is once again too close to call.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 311, McCain 227
Obama Best Case – Obama 406, McCain 132
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
This is getting repetitive to say with every update, but where we are right now is STILL that McCain can win every single state that is close, and he would still lose. To win right now, he needs to win all of his strong and weak states, plus ALL of the swing states, plus some combination of Pennsylvania (21 ev), Ohio (20 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Colorado (9 ev), Nevada (5 ev) and New Mexico (5 ev) that adds up to 43 or more electoral votes. Obama has leads greater than 5% in all of those states at the moment.
Another note is probably relevant right now. If a game changing event happened in this race at this point, something that would cause people currently for Obama to change their minds in droves and switch to McCain, it is almost certainly too late to see the results of those changes in the polls before the actual election on Tuesday. When we start including the last pre-election polls into the mix on Monday, they will be reflecting the state of the race as of this weekend at the latest. If something big happens today, Sunday or Monday, the polls will be basically blind as to how that changes people’s minds (or not).
OK, finally, a correction…. on my October 29th Update I stated that Mississippi moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain as McCain’s lead dropped below 10%. This was actually the result of a math error. (For those who care, I was accidentally looking at a four poll average instead of a five poll average.) McCain’s lead had been reduced by the new poll, but it hadn’t quite dipped below 10%. At the time of the update I did on the 29th, the lead should have been 11%. Today it is down to 10.4%. But it has not actually dropped below 10%. So Mississippi is still “Strong McCain” and should have been between the 29th and today as well. I have corrected the chart in this post and the main Electoral College Prediction page. Graphs in older posts remain uncorrected. Because this was a Strong/Weak difference, the summary totals were not affected. I apologize for the error.
Extra Credit (25 points): Do some article research on one of the “toss-up” or “swing” states mentioned in the lean to areas and explain why that state is labeled as such. Make sure that you provide a bibliography for your source(s). Due on Thursday, November 6
Extra Extra Credit (25 points): Using your Prediction Map and watching the National Presidential Elections, summarize how the “toss-up” or “swing” states did. Your summary should reflect each of the states electoral count and what difference in made in the election. Due on Thursday, November 6
Indiana (11 ev): After two days in Obama’s column, the five poll average for Indiana once again falls on the McCain side of the line. As usual, I should point out that the difference between “Lean Obama” and “Lean McCain” is slight. States in either category should really be considered too close to call, which is why in our summaries we show the whole range of possibilities with those states going either way.
Wisconsin (10 ev): After a single day as a “Weak Obama” state the five poll average once again indicates an Obama lead more than 10%, so the state moves back to “Strong Obama”.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 311, McCain 227
Obama Best Case – Obama 396, McCain 142
If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain
Without Indiana, Obama’s “everybody gets their leans” count is no longer a 375 electoral vote landslide. However, just as every day since October 3rd, McCain’s best case (winning all swing states) is still to lose.
To change that and make the McCain best case actually a McCain win, he needs to reduce Obama’s lead to less than 5% in enough states to get 43 more electoral votes in the swing state group. The current “Weak Obama” states that McCain could be targeting look like this right now:
Pennsylvania (21 ev) – 9.4% Obama lead
Ohio (20 ev) – 5.6% Obama lead
Virginia (13 ev) – 6.0% Obama lead
Colorado (9 ev) – 7.0% Obama lead
Nevada (5 ev) – 7.6% Obama lead
New Mexico (5 ev) – 7.5% Obama lead
If McCain can get 43 of those electoral votes to less than a 5% Obama lead, then he would once again be in a situation where if he won all of his strong and week states, and then won ALL of the swing states, then he would win.
