Of course I didn’t even get to spend any time with the ballot at all yesterday because I was doing other things, and I actually had the nerve to sleep. So now, here it is, election day, and I still haven’t started on the 35 items on my ballot. Well, here we go. Here is the first one.
The full text of Initiative is here (pdf). Basically, it is about neutering HOV lanes. Generally, that is something I approve of. I think HOV lanes are annoying social engineering to try to get me to not drive my car alone. I think that is annoying and I don’t like it. Anything that would move in the direction of eliminating that sort of thing is great.
It also has some seemingly common sense things like requiring traffic light synchronization and some other stuff like that.
However… I have a number of problems with this anyway.
First, it seems like this is the sort of thing that really should be determined either by the legislature, or by non-political bureaucracies. I generally don’t like Initiatives. This is what we elect legislators for. So if they are used, it seems like they should be used for issues where there is a real reason why the legislature is not adequate. I’m not sure this is such a case.
Second, it hard codes into the law what “peak hours” are for purposes of allowing open use of HOV lanes in non-peak hours. That is silly, and does not properly allow for changes in usage patterns over time. If you were going to have a policy to allow something in non-peak hours, you should make an objective definition of that based on something that can properly be adjusted over time without a change in the law. I won’t try to be a traffic engineer and make that definition, but it definately should not be a fixed set of hours. It should be something based on current level of traffic flows, where if the flow was some fraction of peak traffic, it would be considered “off-peak”. Of course, in truly non-peak conditions, using the HOV lanes or not is a non-issue, as all lanes are flowing freely, perhaps making this irrelevant. This whole idea only makes sense if you are opening the HOV lanes during hours where traffic is still congested…
Third, according to the financial impact statement, the cost of the transition would be significant.
Fourth, the initiative includes a lengthy new section being added to the RCW (Revised Code of Washington) which explains the “intent” of the various changes. In general, I don’t like laws explicitly stating their intent. I don’t care what their intent is, other than what the words of the law itself says. I know this is a common practice of course, but I still don’t like it. But this statement in specific is not just describing the intent, but also includes a long litany describing the history of these efforts, how the efforts were rebuffed in the past, etc. It just sounds like a bitter diatribe about this whole thing. That sort of thing is fine for the summary statement (maybe) but should not be part of the initiative itself.
So, with all that, despite the fact that I generally agree with many of the goals of this initiative, I find the implementation fatally flawed.
It is now election day (UTC at least) so as of a few minutes ago I opened my 2008 Electoral College Results page. There are no updates there yet. There will be no actual called states for almost another day of course, but if any additional last minute polls move any state from one category to another, I’ll get the updates up as soon as I find out.
This is the last regularly scheduled daily update, so I am including the map even though it has not changed today. Starting in just over 2 hours, at 00:00 UTC, I’ll start doing updates as soon as I get them if there are any remaining last minute polls, and starting in just over 24 hours when we start getting actual results I will make changes reflecting those results. I’ll be “calling” states based on when CNN calls them.
But for today, there is only one change.
North Carolina (15 ev): Since the end of September, Obama’s lead in North Carolina in my five poll average has ranged from 0% to 3.5%. It has always been very close though. Today, for the first time in a month, the five poll average moves to the McCain side of the fence. So the state moves from “Lean Obama” to “Lean McCain”. As usual, I will caution that the true condition of North Carolina (and all of the swing states) is “too close to call”, and being slightly on one side of the line vs slightly on the other side of the line, is not really a significant difference in where the state is.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 278, McCain 260
Obama Best Case – Obama 406, McCain 132
If everybody gets their leans – 338 Obama, 200 McCain
So, once again, and for the last time before election day… if John McCain gets all of the states he is ahead in, plus all of Obama’s lean states… he still loses.
However, it must be said that it certainly does appear to be the case that McCain has had some momentum over the last week or so. He has pulled several “Lean” states from Obama’s side to his side. As we keep saying, they are still all too close to call, but it does make the task of McCain winning “all the swing states” seem a bit easier. He now only had to pull three more states from Obama’s side (Florida, Ohio and Virginia) to accomplish that goal.
Of course, that still would not be enough. Which is where McCain’s Pennsylvania gambit comes in. As of today in the last five poll average, Obama is ahead by 8.8%. If there is more tightening there than the polls are showing, because of a Bradley effect or anything else, and McCain can somehow pull out a win in Pennsylvania, after already sweeping all of the swing states, then he could pull it off. His other paths involve a combination of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, but those seem less likely.
There is still not a path for victory for McCain in these numbers.
If I had to make a guess based on the polling pattern of the past two weeks rather than just trusting my numbers completely and going for the “everybody gets their leans” results, I would say that the final result will be closer to McCain’s best case than Obama’s best case.
On the other hand, the reports of super high early voting turnout which is leaning democratic, plus the massive Democratic Get Out the Vote effort this year, and the “enthusiasm gap”, and some last minute one off polls showing Alaska and Louisiana close… which are probably outliers… but… all of those things would lead me to guess something closer to Obama’s best case.
And well, since there are conflicting reasons to go one way or another, I’ll stick with the numbers. If I had to make a prediction, I’d use the “everybody gets their leans” numbers. Obama 338, McCain 200.
But I don’t really want to be nailed down that way either. So as a final prediction, I’ll just say that I’m pretty confident that the final result will be somewhere between the “Obama Best Case” and “McCain Best Case” I have outlined above.
Which means an Obama win.
We shall see if I am right. Election day coverage on abulsme.com starts shortly.
I just put in my entry at Brendan Loy’s Electoral College Contest. I of course based my entry on my own Electoral College Predictions. Specifically, based on my November 2nd update. I won’t be doing the November 3rd update until after his deadline. I won’t reveal my exact methods in picking my answers for the tiebreaker questions though. :-)
My gut though is telling me that Obama will actually do better than the “everybody gets their leans” line that I used to enter the contest. But I felt like I was honor bound to go by what my numbers are telling me, rather than what my gut is telling me. :-)
If anybody else wants to enter Brendan’s contest you have until Noon Eastern (17 UTC). Instructions for entering can be found at the link above.
I think if you win you get a mug saying you won the contest or some such, but I could be wrong. :-)
We probably won’t do this on a regular basis, because it is looking to be somewhat of a pain. However, Ivan and I are recording this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner NOW. If you wish to watch live, it will be below…
OK, in UTC terms it is now the day before election day. I have taken both today and tomorrow off of work. So it is now time to start working through the ballot. There are 35 items. The Presidential race is #12. As I do this, I will, as usual, post my thoughts and votes. I hope to space this out a bit and finish sometime Monday, so I’m not rushing through anything on Tuesday. Of course, if history is any guide, I’ll be rushing to finish and get it turned in on time.
Two states change status today, both in McCain’s favor:
Ohio (20 ev): After maxing out at an 8.2% Obama lead a week ago, Obama’s lead in Ohio falls below 5%, making it a swing state again, and putting it once again within reach for John McCain.
Virginia (13 ev): With a pattern very similar to Ohio, Obama maxed out with an 8.0% lead a week ago, but his lead in the five poll average drops below 5% today, making Virginia once again a swing state.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – Obama 278, McCain 260
Obama Best Case – Obama 406, McCain 132
If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain
Now, the bottom line remains the same as it has for quite some time. McCain can win all of his strong and weak states, plus all of the swing states, and he would still lose. However, it is important to note that his loss in that case is narrower than it has been in a couple of weeks, plus since then he’s taken the lead in a couple of states, and Obama’s had a couple of swing states weaken… most notably Pennsylvania. And Pennsylvania is at a 6.4% Obama lead now. Way down from Obama’s 12.0% peak.
So, once again gaming out what McCain would have to do to win given where things are now…
First he must win in ALL of the states he is ahead in.
Then he has to win ALL of the swing states Obama is ahead in (but barely): Florida (Obama ahead by 2.8%), Ohio (Obama ahead by 3.8%), North Carolina (Obama ahead by 0.4%) and Virginia (Obama ahead by 4.8%).
And then he must find 10 electoral votes by winning some combination of Pennsylvania (Obama ahead by 6.4%, 21 electoral votes), Colorado (Obama ahead by 7.2%, 9 electoral votes), Nevada (Obama ahead by 6.0%, 5 electoral votes) and New Mexico (Obama ahead by 8.3%, 5 electoral votes).
If McCain manages to pull that off by winning Pennsylvania, his move over the past few weeks into Pennsylvania will be hailed as genius just because he won. It won’t be true of course, there were better places he could have put his resources several weeks ago that he might have been able to move instead. But that will be forgotten if he actually manages it.
Right now in my charts, there is no McCain path to victory because he would not only have to win swing states, but take states where Obama is ahead by more than 5%. But if he manages to tighten Pennsylvania just a little bit more, there will be such a path, although still a very difficult one.
He has just over 50 hours before the first polls close on election day.
(Although, as noted in yesterday’s update the polls lag slightly, so if anything big changes in those 50 hours, the polls will probably be blind to it.)
There will be one more regularly scheduled update tomorrow, then starting at 00:00 UTC on election day, I will switch to updates whenever there are new polls… or actual election results as they get called. I will try to be as close to real time as I can manage.
Sam and Ivan talk about:
