This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon
|
I am at home now for basically two weeks of vacation… well, except that I have a meeting I’m going to on Tuesday. And two conference calls on Wednesday. and I’m going in all day long on Friday for two planning meetings. And the following Friday I’ll go to work to catch up on email and such before I *really* come back the following Monday.
But I’m basically on vacation… Woo!
My plans:
- Non Stop Gavel to Gavel watching of both conventions (the primary reason for the precise timing of this vacation)
- Catch up on putting financial information into Quicken
- Catch up on old email
- Do a bunch of reading
- Catch up on some genealogy stuff
- Work on a handful of different projects I’ve had on my list for a long time, but haven’t had any time for
- Sleep
- Spend some time with Brandy and Amy
- Have Fun
And that will be that.
Bumper Sticker Could Indicate Bayh Is Obama’s Veep
(KMBC, Kansas City, 22 Aug 2008)
After weeks of speculation and days of intense rumors, the answer to who Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama would name as his running mate may have come down to a bumper sticker printed in Lenexa.
KMBC’s Micheal Mahoney reported that the company, which specializes in political literature, has been printing Obama-Bayh material. That’s Bayh as in U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. Word leaked out about the material as it was being printed up by Gill Studios of Lenexa. The Obama campaign had said it would make the announcement by text message on Friday.
Gill Studios would not confirm information about the material. They would not deny it either.
(via Drudge)
I woke up today thinking that it was Saturday.
It is not Saturday.
It is still Friday.
That was a disappointment.
The highly detailed analysis at fivethirtyeight.com is always worth paying attention to. They posted a note yesterday saying that their simulations were now showing McCain winning more often than Obama by a slight margin. At this moment in time, pre-Veeps and pre-Conventions, we are pretty much in a flat even race.
Today’s Polls, 8/20
(Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com, 20 Aug 2008)
Our popular vote projection shows a literal tie, with each of Barack Obama and John McCain projected to earn 48.5 percent of the vote, and third-party candidates receiving a collective 3 percent.
Things get confusing, however, when looking at the electoral college. We project Obama to earn slightly more electoral votes on average. However, we also project John McCain to win the election slightly more often. What accounts for the discrepancy? Obama’s wins tend to be larger, and McCain’s tend to be smaller. If Obama wins this election by between 7 or 10 points, there are very few high-EV states that he won’t be able to put into play; even something like Texas is probably winnable. If McCain were to win by that margin, on the other hand, he would still almost certainly lose New York, he would almost certainly lose Illinois, and he would almost certainly lose California. Those states represent 107 electoral votes that are essentially off-limits to McCain, even on his very best days.
Things only tend to get more volatile as the election approaches and more people start to pay attention. This is going to be an interesting September and October.
What looks like a step in the right direction, via EFF:
Judge Rules That Content Owners Must Consider Fair Use Before Sending Takedowns
(Corynne McSherry, EFF, 20 Aug 2008)
A judge’s ruling today is a major victory for free speech and fair use on the Internet, and will help protect everyone who creates content for the Web. In Lenz v. Universal (aka the “dancing baby” case), Judge Jeremy Fogel held that content owners must consider fair use before sending takedown notices under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (“DMCA”).
Universal Music Corporation (“Universal”) had sent a takedown notice targeting a 29-second home movie of a toddler dancing in a kitchen to a Prince song, “Let’s Go Crazy,” which is heard playing in the background. Because her use of the song was obviously a fair use and, therefore, non-infringing, Lenz sued Universal for misrepresentation under the DMCA. Universal moved to dismiss the case, claiming, among other things, that it had no obligation to consider whether Lenz’s use was fair before sending its notice. The judge firmly rejected Universal’s theory:
…
Chris Weigant posted his latest Electoral update yesterday, quoting some of my commentary as well.
Electoral Math — Obama Sure Could Use A Bump
(Chris Weigant, Huffington Post, 20 Aug 2008)
It’s time once again to take a look at how the electoral math is shaping up for Barack Obama and John McCain. While the news this time around isn’t all that great for Obama, I wanted to take another of these snapshots of the polls — before the running mates are announced and before the conventions happen — in order to provide a statistical baseline to see how big a “bump” in the polls either candidate will get in the next few weeks. My analysis in short: while the news isn’t dire quite yet, Obama could certainly use such a bump at this point.
Take a look at the whole thing.
A few people are arguing that the fact Obama has slipped in the polls over the last month is not really a real problem for Obama, but rather it is just smart strategy, and Obama is outsmarting McCain by getting him to expend all his resources early, and Obama will come back and crush him later when he is tired and has nothing left.
Obama’s Rope A Dope
(Deannie Mills, Huffington Post, 20 Aug 2008)
I have been thinking a lot lately about Ali’s boxing career and especially his “rope-a-dope” strategy.
And I think it’s come to life again, in the Obama campaign.
Obama has taken many body blows during this lengthy campaign, first from Hillary Clinton and her many surrogates, and now from John McCain and his two surrogates, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham. Recently, during the only real vacation he’s had in two years, the McCain campaign released a different sneering smear-ad pretty much every day of the week.
…
The fight’s over!
But, see, all this tongue-wagging really fails to take into account that this political boxer may actually have a strategy of his own. Call it, roping a dope.
All summer, during the early rounds of the fight, most Americans have not been paying that much attention while McCain has landed one body-blow after another. When they do look up, they see a fighter on the ropes, holding up his fists to protect his face, maybe getting in a jab or two in self-defense.
He’s weak! they cry. He’s getting the crap beat out of him!
But is he? Is he REALLY?
Right now he’s got a fortune in the bank, no debt, more money pouring in every month–and while that’s going on, he’s working hard to unify a party exhausted and irritated at one another after the tiresome primary season. Call it lots and lots of working out at the gym, strengthening those abs so they can withstand the hard punches.
Meanwhile, his trainer stepped in before the match and loosened the ropes–meaning, it may not be readily apparent simply because the campaign hasn’t trumpeted it loudly to media far and wide–but hard-hitting Obama attack ads have been quietly playing in swing states all over the country, delivering sharp jabs to McCain. They don’t smear McCain’s character or make up baseless crap about him or pretend that Britney Spears matters worth a damn to anybody in this country except Britney Spears–but they deliver sharp counterpunches on McCain’s weakest policy positions, and they’re landing more than a few bruises in the states where the fight hangs in the balance.
…
By the time we get to the last couple of rounds of this fight, Obama is going to come full-on into his own. He will get his strength and stamina from US–all of us out here who are in the ring with him. We will be energized and, to coin a phrase, “fired up and ready to go.”
And when that happens, most of the country WILL be watching. They’ll see a tired old man throwing ineffectual, wild punches.
And they’ll see a fighter in his prime, dancing away from the ropes, landing the knock-out blows.
Hmmm. There are possibly some good points in there. But I’m not sure I really buy it. I’m not sure that in this kind of game, which is of course NOT boxing, that it is ever the “smart thing to do” to let your opponent take the momentum and lead the media narrative for a month.
Just finishing lunch, so no time for nice pictures, but…
Fay stalls, soaks Melbourne in “historic and hazardous rainfall event”
(Brendan Loy, Weather Nerd, Pajamas Media, 20 Aug 2008)
The Melbourne area, on Florida’s east coast, is getting absolutely pummeled right now by Tropical Storm Fay’s soaking rains, as the storm’s southern rain bands — which seem to be intensifying — “train” over the region, dumping 1-2 inches an hour in some spots.
Read the article for more details. Sounds like flooding and such is going to be pretty bad.
Today’s polling has a big status change. My average of the last five polls in Ohio goes from Obama ahead by 1% to McCain ahead by 1%. Either way it is in the swing state category of “could easily go either way” but, for the moment, McCain has the edge and this flips Ohio into his category in the “everybody gets their lean states” totals.
New summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 384, McCain 154
If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265
It takes 270 to win the electoral college. 269 to tie and send it to the House of Representatives. The total above is about as close as you can get without it actually being a tie. (If right now McCain managed to flip New Hampshire and there were no other changes, it WOULD be an electoral tie…)
Now, we shouldn’t read too much to Ohio being on one side or the other of the line. The reality is that is in the swing state category. It could go either way. And it has been in that state for a long time. The difference between where it was before this new polling and where it is now is slight.
However, I wouldn’t want to minimize this. This is yet more McCain momentum. He’s been on a roll for a month now. In mid-July Obama had McCain on the ropes. We were almost at the point where Obama could win without ANY swing states. McCain was in a position where he would have to essentially completely sweep all the swing states to win.
No longer. Obama still has a better best case scenario than McCain’s best case scenario. But the situation is MUCH more even. Yes, Obama needs far fewer of the swing states to come to his side. But McCain is ahead in almost enough of those states.
There are 141 electoral votes currently in swing states. Assuming Obama gets DC, in order to win Obama needs 27 of those electoral votes. Right now he is ahead in 3 swing states netting 30 electoral votes. By contrast McCain needs to bring 116 electoral votes from the swing states to win. Right now he is ahead in 10 of the swing states giving 111 electoral votes.
As mentioned before, from where we are now, if McCain flips New Hampshire, then we go to the House and Obama probably wins. (Although there may be interesting dynamics there that would not guarantee it.) But McCain just needs to flip Michigan or Colorado to take the lead outright.
Meanwhile, Obama needs to start fighting hard in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to flip them. If he can bring those back to his side, he could start looking comfortable again.
He also needs to start playing some defense to try to move Michigan, Colorado and New Hampshire out of swing state status and into the slightly safer weak category.
He can not keep letting Solid states move to Weak states and Weak states move to Lean states, and Lean states to McCain Lean states… which is what he has been doing for the last month.
That does sound a little passive though. This isn’t just happening to Obama in isolation, McCain is doing it to him. McCain was a little late getting spun up and started in this campaign, but for the last month he has been firing on all cylinders, while Obama has been sputtering.
And now we spin into Veeps and Conventions. And then full speed to November.
Get ready for a fun ride.
And an election that could still very easily go either way.
As of the overnight 06 UTC update, Tropical Storm Fay was still just sitting over our old house.
It got there yesterday and then basically just decided to stop.
There should be another update out any time now and I imagine it will eventually move on, but for the moment…
I’m sure it would be fun to be there right now, but I don’t mind all that much that I’m somewhere else now.
|
|