Just watched Obama’s speech. Watched most of McCain’s earlier.
He’s going to wipe the floor with McCain. Just sayin’.
|
She does realize that if she makes a nuisance of herself at this point the only two possible results are weakening Obama for the general election (perhaps making him lose) and destroying her own future in the Senate and the Democratic party, right? She realizes it, right? It won’t set her up for 2012 or anything. It just won’t. I’m 2 out of 2 so far in my original pre-Iowa predictions. One more prediction to go. Will it be 3 for 3?
There have been a bunch of these coming out in the last few days, but here is mine based on my Electoral College Prediction pages, which use the last five polls in each state based on pollster.com data. In this map the “Leaning” states for both candidates (with leads under 5%) are shown as “Undecided”. All states where a candidate is “weak” or “strong” in my classification (leads over 5%) are colored for their candidate. Bottom line, the race at the moment is too close to call, with enough undecided states to easily make either candidate win depending on which way those leaning states end up going. But we knew that already, didn’t we? But maybe tomorrow… She’s bringing up the bogus popular vote argument (she only wins if you don’t count some caucus states). And she is going through all the reasons she (still) thinks she is the best candidate. Is she really going to keep pushing this forward? Really? Well, now she’s talking more about issues than about herself. I wonder just how much trouble she will make over the next few weeks. Hopefully she will just go away. But I know that is wishful thinking. As the polls close in South Dakota, Obama goes over the top. Clinton may or may not officially give up and endorse him today, but it is now finally time to press the play button on this: (Note: If you are reading this in an RSS reader, you may need to click through to the actual post to see the widget and press play. :-) ) Polls start closing in less than 8 minutes. Obama only needs 4 delegates by CNN’s count. It is so exciting! Obama is now 10 delegates away as per CNN. If the rate we have seen over the past few hours continues, he will clinch this before the polls even close in Montana and South Dakota. He needed 42 when I posted 9 hours ago.
New polls push Obama’s lead in Washington State over 10% moving it from the “weak” category to “strong”. Just as a review, “leaning” states are ones where the lead is less than 5%, so they are very actively in play as swing states. “Weak” states are ones where the lead is between 5% and 10%… they are not really currently in play, but there is the possibility that events or heavy campaigning might put those states back into the game as we go on. “Strong” states are ones where one candidate has a lead of greater than 10%… meaning absent major changes in the state of the race, those states are “safe” and are very unlikely to be actively “in play”… absent, of course, very major changes. We do have many months until the election. These charts and graphs and numbers really should NOT be viewed as a prediction of the actual election results. We are too far out. They should be viewed as a snapshot of the state of the campaign RIGHT NOW. And looking at the historical charts you can try to look for trends as time goes on. But we do have a LONG WAY until the actual election. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 313, Obama 225 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 277, McCain 261 |
||
