This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon
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 So, Sunday Amy wanted to go to a movie with some friends from school. She went to the new Narnia movie. Brandy and I decided to go to a movie ourselves while the kids did their movie. We went to the new Indiana Jones.
Now, this was a bit of a dilemma for me, as I wasn’t actually sure if I’d ever seen the second one. But in the end I decided to go.
Now, I think I actually have seen fully the first and third ones at some point along the line. Probably on TV, not in the theaters, and probably in edited for TV 4:3 versions. But I saw them, I guess. Just not sure I ever managed the second one in whole, although I’m sure I’ve seen parts of it.
Anyway, we saw it. My thoughts… which seem to echo most other comments about it… “Eh, OK”. I mean, it was interesting I guess. And there were some funny moments. And frankly, I can’t really remember the older ones to know if they were really about the same or not. It was fine and all, but I’m not sure exactly why they bothered. (Except for the $$$ of course.)
I mean, it was an OK movie I guess. I was entertained, I do not begrudge the price of the tickets or the popcorn. But it seems like this was just somehow… unneeded.
Especially the ending, which I won’t give away here. I mean really, did we need that? Did we? Really? (And I’m not talking about the actual end, but rather the climax.)
Oh well. An escapist couple of hours if you’re looking for that on a weekend.
Sam and Ivan talk about:
- Our Anniversary
- More Car Shopping
- Scott McClellan and his Book
- News Media Quality (Again)
- Resume Writing
- The Rules Committee
- Puerto Rican Primary
- The Popular Vote
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Unlike some states, Puerto Rico seems to have its act together. All 55 delegates determined by the primaries yesterday have already been allocated. The totals… 38 for Clinton, 17 for Obama. (I note Hillary does even better here than I had predicted. I though Obama would get 23 delegates, which would have been 32 for Clinton. She did better than that. She got 38. That is 69.1%. Which is a HUGE victory… but not huge enough. Clinton needed 82.3% to be on a pace to win. This huge win actually leaves her further from winning than before. Oh well.
Also in this update, Obama picks up 2 more superdelegates. So total for the day, Clinton up 38, Obama up 19.
So the new statistics:
Delegate count is: Obama 2070, Clinton 1915, Edwards 13
In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.9%, Edwards 0.3%
2118 delegates are needed to win.
There are 236 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 48 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 203 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 20.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 22.9% before PR.)
Clinton needs 86.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 82.3% before PR.)
Two more states to go, and then we wait on the superdelegates. I expect once the voting is over, there will be a race by superdelegates to see who can put Obama over the edge.
So the rules nonsense is done (at least for now). They shouldn’t have, but they gave Florida and Michigan some delegates. And in Michigans’s case they completely threw out the election results and just allocated delegates the way they felt like. They shouldn’t have done that either. They decided to seat the full delegates, but give them half votes. For purposes of our counts, they all count as half delegates. All of this is bogus. They shouldn’t have done it. And if they did do the half delegate thing, they should have seated Michigan by the actual election results, they should not have used completely made up numbers. But they have indeed done it.
Because of all this, there is a new “magic number”. Depending on who you listen to, it is now either 2117 or 2118. There is an explanation of the difference at fivethirtyeight.com. For now I will use 2118 since that is what CNN is using, and I have been using them for my delegate counts all along.
So, after all of yesterday’s shenanigans, the magic number moves from 2026 to 2118. And Obama gets 63 more pledged delegate votes and 4 more superdelegate votes. Clinton gets 87 more pledged and 7 more super. Oh yeah, and Edwards gets 6 pledged delegates too. (Comparing CNN’s Counts to Democratic Convention Watch I think CNN is rounding off half delegates. I don’t like that, but it is a little late to switch data sources, so I’ll stick with CNN.)
The new statistics:
Delegate count is: Obama 2051, Clinton 1877, Edwards 13
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.6%, Edwards 0.3%
2118 delegates are needed to win.
There are 293 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 67 more delegates to win. (Up from 42 yesterday.)
Clinton needs 241 more delegates to win. (Down from 243 yesterday.)
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 22.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 15.2% before the RBC.)
Clinton needs 82.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 88.0% before the RBC.)
This one day of rules changes benefits Clinton more than any primary or caucus since, well, ever. This is the single hugest improvement in her position (in terms of percent of delegates she needs to get to win) that she has ever had. In the end though, it puts her percentage needed back to where it was ELEVEN DAYS AGO. So, she puts Obama back by less than two weeks. Her percentage needed is still over 80%. Which is pretty much impossible. It just slightly delays Obama clinching the nomination.
Of course, her camp is threatening to take this all the way to the convention, once again disputing Florida and Michigan, and changing the magic number once again. Of course, she’d still be behind, she’d still lose. But whatever.
Right now, assuming no further changes in Florida and Michigan, Obama needs 67 more delegates to win. Based on the limited poll data available, I expect Obama to get 23 delegates in Puerto Rico and 17 in Montana and South Dakota, for a total of 40 delegates. That would leave him needing 27 more delegates to clinch the nomination.
How long will it take to get them? I’m not sure, but I don’t think it will be very long.
Will Hillary concede? Or will she fight on to the convention regardless. Dunno. That is perhaps the harder question.
 I really should post these sooner to when I watch them. In any case, last week it was time for a Brandy Netflix movie, and the one she had at the time was Funny Face, a 1957 Audrey Hepburn movie. Now, I really like Audrey Hepburn in a bunch of things. Ones I have seen and liked are Sabrina, The Nun’s Story, Breakfast at Tiffany’s, Charade and Wait Until Dark.
I remember having seen this one on TV years ago, but then and now it is just not one that I particularly liked all that much. There were parts that I liked (her first scene in the bookstore) but for the most part it just fell flat for me. The musical numbers didn’t excite me, and the whole fact that over the course of the movie she started out interesting and intellectual and ended up all doing the modeling thing just didn’t have a trajectory that inspired me.
And what the hell was that dance in the nightclub? That was just freaky.
Now, it wasn’t bad or anything, just not one of her best I think. And not one of a style I particularly like.
And the movie poster is really long, and I don’t have much more to say, so we may end up with the picture being longer than what I write. I kind of hate it when that happens, and it kind of tempts me to just keep writing random stuff until I make this long enough to be longer than the picture. Of course, that depends on how wide you make your window, so it is kind of pointless anyway, so I will stop now.
Summary: If you are an Audrey Hepburn completist, of course you have to watch this, it is one of her famous ones. But otherwise, unless you really like this kind of 1950’s musical, it can probably be skipped.
My personal opinion is that seating Michigan or Florida *at all* is just stupid and wrong. You just don’t change the rules in the middle of the game. That is wrong and disturbing. EVEN if it is constructed in a way that it won’t make any difference.
But if they ARE going to do something, then just seating both delegations, but at half a vote per delegate rather than a full vote, seems like a reasonable compromise. It looks like that will happen with Florida. As I write this, Michigan is still up in the air. But some of the proposals to just spit it 50/50, or 69/59, or whatever… are all bullshit. If they are going to recognize the state at all, then it should be based on the election that happened, no matter how flawed. And the uncommitted delegates should be seated as uncommitted delegates (who can then make up their mind and pick someone before the convention).
It seems that is unlikely to happen too. There is even some talk about them “punting” the Michigan question to the credentials committee, which won’t meet for quite some time.
Hopefully we will know before too much longer.
A few more superdelegates today. 3 for Obama, 1 for Clinton.
Updated stats:
Delegate count is: Obama 1984, Clinton 1783, Edwards 7
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.6%, Clinton 47.2%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 276 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 42 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 243 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 15.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 88.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
Of course, as I type these words, the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC is meeting to decide what to do with Florida and Michigan. Based on conversation so far, it seems clear that these states will be seated in some way or another, and the finish line will be moved back some. The question is just how much.
My charts, graphs and numbers will reflect any changes made by the RBC as soon as CNN’s Summary Page reflects the changes, which hopefully will be almost immediate after the RBC makes their decisions.
I am sick today. And late to work. But I”ll drag myself in because of one meeting I want to make sure I’m at. Otherwise I’d consider staying home. Oh well. Off I go.
Quick since I’m running late. Obama is now leading by more than 10% in New York, McCain is now leading by more than 10% in Texas, putting both states in the respective “Strong” categories which makes those states very unlikely to be in play this election. Since both states were already “weak” and neither were in the could go either way “leaning” categories, this leaves the overall summary the same… which is of course still that there are so many states “too close to call” that either candidate could easily win if the election was held today. Of course, the election is not today, so this just gives us a snapshot of now, which will likely change quite a bit before November.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 313, Obama 225
Obama Best Case – Obama 333, McCain 205
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 277, McCain 261
I’m running way late today, so just the basics. Obama gets 3 superdelegates, Clinton gets 2.
Updated stats:
Delegate count is: Obama 1981, Clinton 1782, Edwards 7
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.3%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 280 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 45 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 242 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 16.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 87.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
This is of course as of today’s rules, which are expected to change after Saturday’s RBC meeting.
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