This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter).
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Obama does seem to be on a roll. With the new polls today, three states move in Obama’s direction. The most critical is Ohio, which now moves from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, so this is a huge shift. It is enough to put Obama in the lead (barely) in the situation where you give both candidates all of the states where they are ahead by even a tiny bit. The lead is less than 5% though… actually less than 1%… so really this is a state that very much could easily go either way. But with all the leaning states (and DC) Obama is once again in the lead.
At the same time, Obama strengthens his lead in Pennsylvania. He is now ahead in Pennsylvania by more than 5%. This makes me take the possibility of McCain winning Pennsylvania out of his best case scenario. With Pennsylvania being a pretty large 21 electoral votes though, I fully expect McCain to work hard to bring this state back into play.
Finally, Virginia, which had only strengthened to a more than 5% lead for McCain a few days ago, weakens again and comes back into play as a leaning state, therefore strengthening my “best case” model for Obama.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 313, Obama 225
Obama Best Case – Obama 333, McCain 205
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 277, McCain 261
Now, note we still have 11 states and 105 electoral votes in states where the leading candidate is ahead by less than 5%. Either candidate could easily win by pulling the right mix of those states. Right now, all of this basically just means everything is completely up in the air.
Not to mention, this is of course a snapshot of NOW. (Actually, now and the recent past, as many states have very sparse polling, sometimes less than one poll a month.) And between now and the convention, we’ll have, as one pundit whose name I can’t remember right now called it, two or three “geologic ages” in the state of the race. Things will happen, the candidates will react to them. VPs will be selected. Candidates will make mistakes. Candidates will actively start campaigning in the battleground states. General election TV ads will start airing. Etc.
We have a long way to go. And certainly from this far out, it is completely wide open still.
Having said that, Obama has had a very good last few days in terms of the state by state polls. We shall soon see if this is a long term trend, or if it quickly gets reversed. This is the first time Obama has been ahead since April 20th. And the first time since April 15th that Obama’s best case was better than McCain’s best case.
Looking back though, in the time since we first had polls in all 50 states back on March 8th, Obama has been in the lead with the “all the leans” metric two other times. Neither time lasted more than a week.
So we shall see. My initial prediction is that this time will last longer and be the beginning of a trend in Obama’s direction now that we essentially have a nominee (even if Hillary continues to fight).
I think we’ll see more leaning states flip to Obama soon. (I’ll go out on a limb and say Michigan will flip soon.) And we’ll see some states strengthen for Obama and several more weaken in their McCain support and come back into play for Obama.
I could be wrong though. We’ll know soon enough.
103 out of 103 delegates from KY/OR are now in.
The final results… Clinton 58, Obama 45.
My prediction was… Clinton 58, Obama 45. Woo! Go me!
Today’s batch from KY/OR was an even split, 2 for Clinton, 2 for Obama. In addition today Obama picks up one more super delegate. So over all for today, Obama up 3, Clinton up 2.
New stats:
Delegate count is: Obama 1965, Clinton 1779, Edwards 9
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.4%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 297 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 61 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 247 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 20.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 83.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
In the last couple of updates, I’ve also shown stats for what the situation would be if Clinton got her dream result and had Florida and Michigan fully seated based on the current results. I won’t do that every day since it is not the situation today, and is a very unlikely result. I just give it occasionally to show that even if that were to happen, Clinton would need to be getting significantly more than 60% of the remaining delegates to be on pace to catch up and win. This would be a DRAMATIC change from the 47.4% of the delegates she has been pacing at so far. And every day where she doesn’t get that margin in the delegates… which is almost every day… the percentage she needs continues to go up. She is not doing what she needs to be doing to win EVEN IF she gets what she wants in Michigan and Florida… which she won’t.
In any case, if and when there is a revision to the policy on Michigan and Florida that officially changes the number of delegates required for a win, then I will of course make adjustments here. This may well happen on the 31st. (And even after that what is decided may be appealed and have the possibility of changing again later.) But in the mean time, the number needed to win is 2026.
Lost Parrot Tells Veterinarian His Address
(AP on Huffington Post)
When Yosuke the parrot flew out of his cage and got lost, he did exactly what he had been taught _ recite his name and address to a stranger willing to help.
Police rescued the African grey parrot two weeks ago from a neighbor’s roof in the city of Nagareyama, near Tokyo. After spending a night at the station, he was transferred to a nearby veterinary hospital while police searched for clues, local policeman Shinjiro Uemura said.
He kept mum with the cops, but began chatting after a few days with the vet.
“I’m Mr. Yosuke Nakamura,” the bird told the veterinarian, according to Uemura. The parrot also provided his full home address, down to the street number, and even entertained the hospital staff by singing songs.
She couldn’t talk, but I still miss Zuri very much. :-(
An update in Indiana continues a positive streak for Obama. The state moves from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain” putting McCain’s lead at less than 5%, and putting it in play for Obama.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 320, McCain 218
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 281, Obama 257
We now have 99 of 103 delegates for KY/OR. At this point 56 for Clinton, 43 for Obama. That is 56.6% for Clinton. I had predicted 56.3%. But she needed 74.4% to be on pace for a win, and she didn’t come close.
Of the delegates above, today’s update included 8 for Obama and 5 for Clinton. In addition, Clinton picked up 2 superdelegates and Obama picked up 1 superdelegate. Today’s net is therefore 9 for Obama and 7 for Clinton.
New stats:
Delegate count is: Obama 1962, Clinton 1777, Edwards 9
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 302 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 64 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 249 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 21.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 82.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
Based on the limited polls available so far from Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, Obama will probably pick up about 38 delegates from those states. Which means he only needs to pick up about 26 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination under the existing rules. (Meaning no Florida and no Michigan.)
Now, the situation of Florida and Michigan may well change on the 31st when the rules committee meets. And Clinton yesterday mentioned the possibility of appealing to the credentials committee and taking this all the way to the convention if she does not get the result she wants.
If Clinton gets her best case result (full seating of Michigan and Florida based on the existing elections) we would have:
Delegate Count: Obama 2041, Clinton 1970, Edwards 20
Delegates that would be needed to win: 2209
There would be 387 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama would need 168 more delegates to win.
Clinton would need 239 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that would mean:
Obama would need 43.4% of the remaining delegates to win.
Clinton would need 61.8% of the remaining delegates to win.
Again, that is with Clinton’s best case result… which is highly unlikely. But even with that best case, she would need to be convincing a significantly larger fraction of superdelegates than she has been lately.
Oops, almost forgot. McCain picks up 40 delegates and Paul picks up 4. New Republican totals: McCain 1500, Huckabee 275, Romney 255, Paul 30.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner I mentioned that my own prediction was that we were near McCain’s high water mark in terms of General Election polls, and that as soon as the Democratic nominee was absolutely final and Obama could concentrate on the general, McCain’s margins would start to slip.
Are we perhaps seeing the first signs of this today? For the first time since the 1st of May there are poll results that are good news for Obama. Namely, my five poll average for Pennsylvania now moves the state from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes, so that is big. Now, it is still “leaning” which means Obama is ahead by less than 5% and the state is very much in play and either candidate could take it. But still, good news for Obama after a long dry spell.
Meanwhile though, McCain gets stronger in Virginia, moving it from “Leaning” to “Weak” meaning that McCain’s lead is now more than 5% (but still less than 10%). This effectively takes Virginia out of the “could go either way” category. With 13 electoral votes though, Virginia might be big enough for Obama to still spend some time trying to bring it back into play.
Anyway, the summary:
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 309, McCain 229
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 281, Obama 257
Even not considering the fact that we have over 5 months before the election and a lot will change between now and then, these numbers just show this race is still very much completely wide open, with the 10 states that are “too close to call” making the range of possible outcomes huge.
As a recap, those states at the moment are: Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), South Carolina (8), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4) and North Dakota (3).
I haven’t posted anything of this type in a long time, but interesting piece of news:
Moffat named Doctor Who supremo
(Ben Dowell, Guardian)
Scriptwriter Steven Moffat was today named lead writer and executive producer on hit BBC1 drama Doctor Who.
Moffat, who has written a number of episodes of the show – including the acclaimed Blink episode which won him the writer prize at this year’s Bafta Craft Awards – will replace Russell T Davies.
Davies, the key creative figure behind the Doctor Who revival in 2005, stands down next year.
The appointment makes Moffat Doctor Who’s showrunner – the key creative force behind the programme – on the fifth series, which will be broadcast on BBC1 in 2010.
As well as Blink, his previous work on Doctor Who includes The Girl in the Fireplace for series two which earned him his second Hugo Award. His first was for the series one two-parter The Empty Child.
Davies said: “It’s been a delight and an honour working with Steven, and I can’t wait to see where his extraordinary imagination takes the Doctor. Best of all, I get to be a viewer again, watching on a Saturday night!”
(via doctorwhonews.com)
86 of 103 delegates from the Kentucky and Oregon primaries are now in. That’s 83.5%.
So far we have 51 Clinton, 35 Obama. That is 59.3% for Clinton so far. A little higher than the 56.3% I had predicted yesterday, but still way way less than the 74.4% Clinton would have needed to be on pace to catch up and win.
Since the last update we also have 10 more superdelegate announcements, 8 for Obama, 2 for Clinton.
This brings our new stats to:
Delegate count is: Obama 1953, Clinton 1770, Edwards 9
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 318 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 73 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 256 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 23.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 80.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
Now, at this point, Clinton is putting a lot of emphasis on seating Florida and Michigan, so lets do a quick look at that. Clinton’s best possible scenario would be to fully seat Florida and Michigan as is based on their existing votes, and seat them full force… with all of the Michigan “uncommitted” delegates staying uncommitted.
If so, using numbers from Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton would gain 193 more delegates, Obama would gain 79 more delegates, Edwards would gain 11 more delegates, and the new magic number would be 2209.
Adding those numbers to what we have today, that would bring us to 2032 Obama, 1963 Clinton, 20 Edwards, with 403 delegates without an expressed preference yet. Obama would need 177 delegates to win (43.9%). Clinton would need 246 delegates to win (61.0%).
Now, 61.0% is not 80.5%, but it is STILL a formidable number to get from these undeclared superdelegates and uncommitted pledged delegates. Especially given the situation we’d be in, it would be almost impossible.
And this is Clinton’s best possible case on Michigan and Florida. Since Obama’s folks will have a significant (if not controlling) influence on the committee deciding this, we can be pretty sure that this “best case for Clinton” situation will NOT happen.
But even if it did… Obama is still in a much stronger position and Clinton would have a very hard time getting the win. Again, absent a complete meltdown by Obama.
Oh yeah, and McCain picks up 42 more delegates too.
Sam and Ivan talk about:
- Florida Fires
- Stupid Seattle People and Water
- Online Videos
- Appeasement
- Chinese Earthquake
- Nuclear Power
- Going Cashless
- Dems: When Will it End?
- States in Play for the General
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OK, as I’ve done before the last few primaries, I’ll make a prediction for the results from today’s primaries based on the latest poll averages. I won’t bother splitting it up by the two states, because only the total delegate count really matters.
There are 103 delegates at stake in today’s primaries.
My prediction… 58 for Clinton, 45 for Obama.
That will be 56.3% of the delegates for Clinton, which is of course well short of the 74.4% she would need to get to be on a pace to catch up and win.
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