This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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Delegates Before KY/OR

A few more superdelegates today. Five for Obama. One for Clinton.

The new delegate count is: Obama 1909, Clinton 1718, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.2%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 414 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 117 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 308 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 28.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)

Clinton needs 74.4% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)

Will Clinton get the 74.4% of the delegates from KY/OR that she needs to be on pace to win? Ha! Yeah right. At this point it is really just a countdown until Obama gets the number he needs. This may change from 2026 to a higher number depending on what is decided about Florida and Michigan, but even the Clinton getting absolutely her best case result out of that wouldn’t be enough for her to catch up.

I’ll still be glued to the TV for the results tonight anyway of course.

Analysis of a Tie

A very detailed analysis on the odds of an electoral college tie, and what would happen if that happened…

Like Kissing Your Sister
(FiveThirtyEight.com)

Since we got some good discussion started in the polling thread about the possibility of a 269-269 electoral tie, I thought I’d run some numbers on it.

The simulation returned a tie 63 times out of 10,000 trials (0.63%). These 63 ties involved 56 distinct scenarios for producing that tie. The only scenarios to occur more than once were as follows:

(via Irish Trojan)

By the way, this is my first visit to FiveThirtyEight.com. Looks live a valuable resource. Subscription added.

Electoral College: Nebraska Strengthens for McCain

Things just keep looking better for McCain. We’ll see if this trend reverses once Obama actually finishes wrapping up the Democratic nomination, but in the mean time, McCain just keeps consolidating his leads. Today a new poll in Nebraska moves it (and the corresponding five electoral votes) from just Leaning McCain to Weak McCain. (Meaning McCain’s lead used to be less than 5%, now it is between 5% and 10%.)

This further weakens Obama’s “best case” scenario.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 322, McCain 216

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 302, Obama 236

Last Concert of the Season

Almost There

Cashless

I have been thinking about this for awhile, and I mentioned this to Brandy not that long ago, but I recently realized that I spend a lot of my time without any cash on me these days. Not any. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not even any pocket change. At work I pay for lunch and snacks using my employee id card which directly deducts from my paycheck. Most major purchases are online purchases these days. And in almost all other cases where I am out and about and spending money, I use my debit card. Occationally a credit card, but very rarely. Usually the debit card. I almost NEVER use cash any more.

For awhile I was reluctant to use the debit card for purchases under $20 or so and I’d use cash. But I no longer feel that compulsion. I’ll use my debit card to pay for a $1 purchase without thinking twice about it.

There are some places that are still cash only places, but generally I don’t shop there. Having to use cash is a pain. I’ll have to go to an ATM and make sure I have the needed amount of green actually in my pocket.

I used to always keep a certain amount of cash with me at all times, and if I was low I would go to the ATM and get more. But I slowly started feeling less and less urgent about it. I would run out of cash and not bother to replenish my supply until I *needed* to because I wanted to buy something somewhere that did not take plastic. But this is very rare these days.

As I was thinking about it recently, I realized I have gone weeks at a time with nothing in my wallet except receipts. I just don’t have very much need for actual paper cash any more. Money, yes. Of course. But not in the form of bits of paper or pieces of metal that I carry around with me.

You know the last thing that really got me on a regular basis? Vending machines. I needed that dollar bill to get a coke or a bag of chips. But once I didn’t have cash with me regularly, I’d want chips or whatnot and not have any cash. So I’d head to the ATM. But that WOULD NOT HELP. Because I’d get out however much money, but it would ALL BE IN TWENTIES. And guess what, the vending machines where I tend to be don’t take twenties. So I’d actually have to go somewhere and buy something with a twenty dollar bill, just to get change so I could use the vending machine.

Guess what the result of that was? I use the vending machines much much less than I used to. And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

So anyway, as I sit here looking at my empty wallet, and realizing that it may be quite awhile until something comes up where I *need* to get those little pieces of paper out of the ATM, I am definitely thinking the day is not actually that far off where the use of paper and metal to pay for things will be very rare. It may take it awhile to die completely, but it is coming.

I think right now the longest I have gone with no cash is a few weeks. I bet you soon that will grow to months. Then maybe years.

The complete extinction of “cash” in the old paper and metal forms may take many decades yet. But I bet you that by the time a kid born today is a teenager, they will view spending of paper money and coins as a quaint antiquity. Hell, I bet a lot of teenagers today already think that. Hell, I kind of think that too.

We just have to wait for the rest of the world to catch up.

The Real Dream Ticket(s)

I’m all for it. Add the joint town halls that have been discussed, and I’ll be quite happy.

Fever Dream Tickets
(Hendrik Hertzberg, The New Yorker)

One thing Obama and McCain have in common is that they each have a Vice-President problem. In both cases the choice is fraught with peril. Do you go for someone who strengthens your base or extends your appeal? Do you try for balance or amplification? How do you avoid saddling yourself with one ingrate and a dozen disgruntled spurnees?
The solution is obvious. Obama should ask McCain to be his running mate. McCain should ask Obama to be his. And both should say yes.
A campaign pitting an Obama-McCain ticket against a McCain-Obama ticket would absolutely guarantee a general-election campaign that would be about The Issues and nothing but The Issues.

(via Andrew Sullivan)

A return to the original formulation that the VP would be whoever came in second in electoral votes. I love it! The only thing better would be to go back to the electors actually being real people who made real decisions rather than just being appointed based on the results of some widespread general election and rubber stamping the results of the popular vote in each state.

Alas, none of that will ever happen. Quite sad.

More Delegates to Obama

The rush continues. Two more Edwards delegates move to Obama. So do two Clinton delegates. Plus Obama gets another superdelegate. Net for today, Obama gains 5, Clinton and Edwards each lose two.

The new delegate count is: Obama 1904, Clinton 1717, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.3%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 420 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 122 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 309 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 29.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)

Clinton needs 73.6% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)

All the Good Stupid Ideas

Why don’t I ever think of things like this?

A blog of things that look like ducks.

(via Andrew Sullivan)

Again and Again

This has been going around for a few days now, but I just actually watched it for the first time a few minutes ago. It is a music video for a song which is all made up of the guy doing stuff in various windows on his Mac.

(via Lifehacker)