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Just one new superdelegate today. An Obama superdelegate. The significance this time is that according to CNN’s count (this happened with other people’s counts a few days ago) Obama and Clinton both have 273 superdelegates. So Obama has now, for the first time, caught up with Clinton in superdelegates. This was the last metric in which she was undeniably ahead. No more. Updated stats: The new delegate count is: Obama 1865, Clinton 1697, Edwards 19 In percent terms that is: Obama 52.1%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5% 2025 delegates are needed to win. There are 467 delegates yet to be determined. Obama needs 160 more delegates to win. Clinton needs 328 more delegates to win. In percentage terms, that means: Obama needs 34.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.) Clinton needs 70.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)
A new poll moves my “last five polls average” for Michigan from Leaning Obama to Leaning McCain. At the moment there are 123 electoral votes worth of states in the “leaning” category, meaning that in reality they could easily go either way. However, of those, at the moment 91 electoral votes worth are leaning toward McCain, and only 32 are leaning toward Obama. Once Obama can truly be done with this primary season, he has some work to do if he is going to be in a strong position in November. Current Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204 And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 299, Obama 239
The superdelegates just keep coming. Some new ones, plus at least one switcher this time. The net for today, 4 for Obama, 1 for Clinton. If the rush of superdelegates is going to come to Clinton’s rescue, they really need to start soon. Updated stats: The new delegate count is: Obama 1864, Clinton 1697, Edwards 19 In percent terms that is: Obama 52.1%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5% 2025 delegates are needed to win. There are 468 delegates yet to be determined. Obama needs 161 more delegates to win. Clinton needs 328 more delegates to win. In percentage terms, that means: Obama needs 34.4% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.) Clinton needs 70.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.) As noted in the title of this post this means that as of today Clinton passes the 70% mark. I thought it might be time to update the delegate estimates from the rest of the primaries. I last did this estimate on May 3rd. By the way, those predictions from the last time were exactly right for Guam (2 to 2 split). For Indiana and North Carolina I had predicted 97 Obama, 90 Clinton. The actual results were 99 Obama, 88 Clinton. Pretty close. Running the rest of the states based on the pollster.com averages as of a few minutes ago, you get the following:
First of all, yes Ivan, this still shows Clinton ahead in Oregon, even though all the recent polls have showed Obama ahead. This is because there still haven’t been enough polls with Obama ahead to flip the overall trend percentage… yet. It is fairly obvious that it will happen, it just hasn’t yet. And I am going with pure, unadulterated pollster.com averages, so those are the numbers I am using right now. Anyway, of those six primaries, Clinton is at the margin she needs to “be on track” in only one… the next one… West Virginia. She is close in Kentucky though, so if she gets a media bump out of West Virginia for her absolutely crushing margins, she might be able to be “on pace” in Kentucky as well. Assuming of course that more superdelegate announcements in the three days between now and the West Virginia primaries don’t make her ratio needed to win even higher… which will probably happen, potentially putting even West Virginia out of reach. There are now more superdelegates left than delegates to be determined by primaries, so they actually matter more now. The total of all six remaining given these estimates would be Clinton 132, Obama 85. That has Clinton getting 60.8% of the delegates, well below the 69.6% ratio she currently needs to win. If that happened, we would have the following: Delegate count would be: Obama 1945, Clinton 1828, Edwards 19 In percent terms that would be: Obama 51.3%, Clinton 48.2%, Edwards 0.5% 2025 delegates are needed to win. There would be 256 delegates yet to be determined. Obama would need 80 more delegates to win. Clinton would need 197 more delegates to win. In percentage terms, that means: Obama would need 31.3% of the remaining delegates to win. Clinton would need 77.0% of the remaining delegates to win. It must suck for her to go out on a string of wins, but still lose. Oh well.
The delegate counts for North Carolina and Indiana are now complete. 99 delegates for Obama, 88 for Clinton. (Of those, 9 delegates were new today, 5 for Clinton, 4 for Obama.) That’s 47.1% for Clinton. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.) That’s 52.9% for Obama. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.) Clinton obviously was far far below the pace she needed to actually try to win this thing. In addition today 16 more superdelegates declared preferences. 10 for Obama, 6 for Clinton. Once again Clinton loses the percentage game. As of yesterday she needed to be getting 68.3% of delegates to catch up and win. Of today’s superdelegates she got 37.5%. Even if you add the delegates she got today from IN/NC, she only manages 44%. Oops. But yet she stays in. Anyway, updated summary: The new delegate count is: Obama 1860, Clinton 1696, Edwards 19 In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5% 2025 delegates are needed to win. There are 473 delegates yet to be determined. Obama needs 165 more delegates to win. Clinton needs 329 more delegates to win. In percentage terms, that means: Obama needs 34.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.) Clinton needs 69.6% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.) More and more superdelegates are declaring their preferences. There hasn’t been a massive overwhelming wave of them yet, but it seems the numbers are increasing. This will be over soon. It seems everybody is determined, for whatever reason, that eventually the Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated in one form or another. I really think they shouldn’t be seated at all, but whatever. When they finally agree how to seat those delegates, all the numbers above will of course change. But the bottom line is that any way they end up seating the delegations will be in a way that is structured such that it doesn’t change the results. It will just be a way to make those states feel included. But they will not matter. And wrong in so so many ways… But it made me laugh… (via Andrew Sullivan)
First of all, one superdelegate from Virginia switches from Clinton to Obama today. So, new stats: The new delegate count is: Obama 1846, Clinton 1685, Edwards 19 In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 0.5% 2025 delegates are needed to win. There are 498 delegates yet to be determined. Obama needs 179 more delegates to win. Clinton needs 340 more delegates to win. In percentage terms, that means: Obama needs 35.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.) Clinton needs 68.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)
More exciting though is that CNN finally updated their Republican numbers with new updates from American Samoa, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, the Northern Marianas, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and the Virgin Islands. Now, not all of the results from all of those places are actually complete yet. For instance, they still only have 2 delegates listed from Pennsylvania. But at least they are finally making some updates and getting caught up. Net result of all these changes: McCain gains 78 delegates, Huckabee gets 8 delegates, and Paul gets 4. The new delegate count is: McCain 1409, Huckabee 275, Romney 255, Paul 26 In percent terms that is: McCain 71.7%, Huckabee 14.0%, Romney 13.0%, Paul 1.3% Of course, McCain long ago passed his magic number to clinch the nomination. So the chart above is just the raw number of delegates everyone has, rather than the Percent of Remaining needed to win that I have been using for the democrats lately. On the wiki page you get by clicking through on the chart though, I do have that graph as well. And while the actual result won’t change of course (absent McCain suddenly deciding he doesn’t want the nomination after all, a major McCain scandal, or McCain death or disability) it is still interesting to see Huckabee and Paul continuing to get a smattering of delegates none the less.
The results so far from North Carolina and Indiana: 178 delegates out of 187 (95.2%) determined. 95 delegates for Obama, 83 for Clinton. (Of those, 8 delegates were new today, 4 for each candidate.) That’s 46.6% for Clinton so far. (Compared to the 62.0% that she needed.) That’s 53.4% for Obama so far. (Compared to the 41.1% that he needed.) In addition today we have a bunch of super delegate moves. Net result of those were a gain of 5 superdelegates for Obama and a gain of 1 superdelegate for Clinton. So, where we now stand… The new delegate count is: Obama 1845, Clinton 1686, Edwards 19 In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 0.5% 2025 delegates are needed to win. There are 498 delegates yet to be determined. Obama needs 180 more delegates to win. Clinton needs 339 more delegates to win. In percentage terms, that means: Obama needs 36.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.) Clinton needs 68.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.) [Note: CNN has not yet released any updated delegate estimates on the Republican side since before the Pennsylvania primaries… which is quite annoying.] She just gave essentially her regular stump speech in West Virginia. No surprise dropping out. No comments about anything changing based on yesterday’s results. Oh well. OK, time to go to work now. |
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