I’m sure everybody has seen this by now, but I made a resolution recently that whenever I think about emailing something I see online to just one or two people, I should post it instead.
This is the clip of Chris Matthews and Kevin James from about a day ago. James was on Hardball to defend the President’s comments about appeasement and such he made in Israel. Matthews decided to try to get James to describe just what Neville Chamberlain had done wrong that Bush was trying to imply was similar to what certain others (unnamed, but everybody took it to mean Obama) are promoting now.
New info on new polls from South Dakota moves the state all the way from “Leaning McCain” to “Strong McCain”. This essentially takes the state out of play for Obama, weakening his “Best Case Scenario”.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 327, McCain 211
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 302, Obama 236
Many many weeks after it would have made any real difference, or shown anything beyond a characterless need to attach oneself to the person who will win anyway, Edwards endorsed Obama. Today 8 out of Edward’s 19 delegates announced they will vote for Obama at the convention. In addition, Obama got 7 more superdelegates today. This makes Obama’s total delegate gain for today 15 delegates. Clinton got one. Ouch.
So, this now puts us here:
The new delegate count is: Obama 1899, Clinton 1719, Edwards 11
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.3%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 421 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 127 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 307 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 30.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)
Clinton needs 72.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)
It’s all over. Obama will have about 54% of the delegates and Clinton 46%. (I know there are a few delegates missing. Some are Edwards, a few uncommitted, and a few refusing to decide- another wash). Hillary Clinton will have come up short by 150 votes. But this isn’t horseshoes. That said she still comes in a very close second, which puts her among the closest runner-ups in Democratic Party history.
So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention. Most of the 795 super delegates have been put under enormous pressure by both candidates for months. For those that chose Obama the decision was an especially painful one both personally and politically.
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Just consider for a moment the final phone call with Bill Clinton when the super delegate had to tell him he or she had decided to go with Obama. Clinton,” It’s time to make a decision. Hillary needs you and I need you. We’ve been through a lot together. When you needed me I was there, now we need you”.
Super delegate, “Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I’ve ever had to do, but I’m going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I’ve got to do this”. Clinton, “I’m very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long.”
Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, “I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president.”
Basically, the deal is this, while for many many election cycles, it has been the case that the Presidential nominee picks who they want and the convention rubber stamps it, it is indeed actually two separate and completely independent votes. There have been times in history where the Presidential candidate didn’t even bother stating a preference for VP, they just threw it open for the convention to decide. But even if the presidential candidate does state a preference, the delegates are under no obligation to honor it other than tradition and the fact they like their candidate and want to respect their wishes. This is true for even pledged delegates and as the author points out, superdelegates will feel even more free…. especially those who remained uncommitted for a very long time and are now basically just going for Obama because they want to pick the winner.
All it would take is a small number of Obama delegates (pledged or super) to decide that even if Obama picks someone else, even if they strongly support Obama for President, they want Clinton to be VP, and that would be that… even if Obama doesn’t want it. And the numbers are close enough that Clinton probably could peel off enough Obama supporters to do this… if she really wanted it and applied enough pressure in the right places.
But would Hillary really go this route? Can you imagine just what chaos there would be if Hillary tried to force herself onto the ticket against Obama’s wishes?? Can you imagine how the campaign would look between the convention and the general election if there was open hostility and resentment between the Presidential and VP candidates?
No, this will not happen. Even Hillary is not that Machiavellian.
Um, OK, maybe she is. Every time someone underestimates what level she can go to, they are proven wrong.
Perhaps this article is actually a coordinated back channels message to Obama threatening to do this if Obama doesn’t pick her to try to pressure him into doing so. But she wouldn’t actually do it would she?
Would she?
And really, does she truly WANT to be Vice President under Obama? Why would she? I can’t imagine that would be a fun place for her.
Just got info on a new poll in North Dakota. It moves my average for the state from “Leaning Obama” to “Leaning McCain”. These leaning states just keep drifting from Obama to McCain lately. Of the 123 electoral votes where one candidate is leading by less than 5% only 29 electoral votes are on the Obama side of the fence at the moment.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 302, Obama 236
This was an ill-advised move not just because it breaks the pledge Mr. Johnson took earlier this year, but because there are safeguards built within the Democratic Party rules which allow campaigns to protect their delegates. Mainly, each campaign may review its delegate lists and scratch people off who they think are at risk of not upholding pledges.
When a delegate is elected at a district level organizing meeting, there are also alternate delegates elected. The alternates are selected as back-ups in case the chosen delegate cannot attend the convention, or in case the campaign scratches a delegate from the list.
Looks like an alternate just got bumped up to delegate status in Maryland.
I would be negligent if I didn’t mention that Palm Bay, FL (the town I lived from the end of December 2004 until I moved to Bellevue, WA in 2006)… is on fire.
A staggering 162 homes were damaged or destroyed by wildfires that burned through Palm Bay Monday and Tuesday. Officials said that that number would likely grow.
Officials first reported more than 60 of the homes were so badly damaged they can’t be lived in any longer. That number was later dropped to 40. Preliminary estimates put the dollar figure for the destruction at $9.6 million. Assessment teams continued to survey damaged areas as firefighters battled flare-ups. In all, nearly 10,000 acres burned in Brevard County.
I’m not in regular contact any more with anybody who still lives in that area (although I think Amy might be), but good luck to anybody who is still there.
I gather the exact area our house was in has not been directly hit yet, but that the fires are not that far away.
So, we actually already have final delegate results for West Virginia. No waiting several days this time! Now, my prediction was 20 delegates for Clinton and 8 for Obama. The results were… 20 delegates for Clinton and 8 for Obama. Woo! Go me!
Anyway, this gives Clinton a ratio for the West Virginia primary of 71.4%. If you recall from yesterday the ratio she needed in order to be on pace to catch up and win was 70.8%. So she made it! Woo! Hillary makes her life easier rather than harder (for at least a day!). Go Hillary!!! Plus, not only that, she picked up another pledged delegate from one of the old states doing adjustments. Go Hillary! Woo! Woo!
Oh, wait, what is this over here? Oh, some superdelegate announcements. Seven of them. All for Obama. Oops. That will change things.
So, the net results for the day are 21 delegates fro Clinton, 15 for Obama. That gives Hillary only 58.3% of the delegates for the day, which is way BELOW where she needs to be in order to be catching up.
So after her huge overwhelming victory in West Virginia the end result is that the road to her winning is yet again MORE DIFFICULT than it was before this victory. And of the rest of the calendar this was her best shot.
This will put the percentage she needs out of reach in Kentucky. And given you have Oregon (where Obama is way ahead) on the same day as Kentucky there is no way that day will end up helping Clinton. The only question now is when Clinton will call this a day. Maybe after Kentucky and Oregon? Maybe? Or will she hold out until June 3rd when everybody has voted?
Updated stats:
The new delegate count is: Obama 1884, Clinton 1718, Edwards 19
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.5%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
(A couple new delegates have been added, so the number to win goes up by one from 2025.)
There are 429 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 142 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 308 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 33.1% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)
Clinton needs 71.8% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)
“I cannot in good conscience go to the convention and not support Barack,” Johnson said in an interview. “She ran a great campaign, but she fell short of the line.”
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Unlike superdelegates, who are free to endorse either candidate, Johnson is one of 28 pledged delegates who have agreed to represent the 36 percent of Maryland Democrats who voted for Clinton on Feb. 12.
The Democratic Convention Watch article has some additional analysis on how Clinton ended up with a faithless pledged delegate. (It looks like thier screening process was a bit flawed, he had actually declared for Obama originally, then changed his mind to Clinton, and is now changing back… the campaigns normally pick their pledged delegates based on unwavering solid loyalty and commitment. Oops.)
There were four new superdelegates added to the declared list today, and they were all for Obama.
Updated stats:
The new delegate count is: Obama 1869, Clinton 1697, Edwards 19
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.1%, Clinton 47.3%, Edwards 0.5%
2025 delegates are needed to win.
There are 463 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 156 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 328 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 33.7% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 41.1% before IN/NC.)
Clinton needs 70.8% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 62.0% before IN/NC.)
This will almost certainly be the last update before we start getting results from West Virginia. So 70.8% of the delegates is the pace Clinton needs to be on in the West Virginia results to be on pace to win. Given recent polls, she may actually get those sorts of margins. She’s at right about that sort of lead it seems. So this might happen… at least for West Virginia. Given the rest of the calendar, including the pace of superdelegate endorsements… I am guessing that the West Virginia results will be the last opportunity she gets to actually improve her position and lower the percentage she needs to win rather than making it higher. Even if she beats this margin in West Virginia, it will only take a few more superdelegates declaring to put Kentucky out of reach. And Kentucky will be on the same day as Oregon, so for that day she won’t have a chance. And that will be that.
