This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on
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On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about a phishing link Sam clicked on, the Bezos blackmail attempt, the Virginia mess, and the latest Trump stuff. They also do a run down of the Democratic field for the 2020 Presidential race. Oh, and they have news about a Seattle meetup, and more!
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-02-08 Length this week – 2:32:23
(0:00:20-0:08:56) But First
Agenda
Bruce predictions
Seattle Meetup being planned
(0:11:09-1:21:12) Potpourri
Sam Clicked a phishing link
Bezos Blackmail
Virginia Mess
(1:21:53-1:49:09) Trump
Executive time
SOTU
SDNY Investigating Trump inaugural
New House investigations
(1:50:29-2:32:03) Democratic candidate roundup
The whole field
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Beto O’Rourke
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
The others
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Ivan finally gets his Potpourri segments! In those, he and Sam talk about Ivan being cold, reports of Texas voter fraud, an update on the economy and markets, the Huawei fraud charges, and a bunch of other stuff. Including Sam getting blasted by a famous poll watcher. Oh, and of course they talk about the shutdown ending and the continuing Trump/Russia scandals.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-02-01 Length this week – 2:12:40
(0:01:26-0:11:37) But First
Agenda
Sam is tired
(0:14:15-0:56:39) Potpourri! Part 1
Nate Silver calls Sam incompetent
Ivan in actual real cold
Economy and markets update
Huawei Fraud charges
(0:57:16-1:19:26) Potpourri! Part 2
Texas bullshit
Venezuela
Brexit
Howard Shultz
(1:20:46-1:39:14) Shutdown
Trump Caves
Negotiations
SOTU
(1:39:45-2:12:20) Trump Russia
Roger Stone
Capone model
Cohen testimony
Mueller almost done?
Cohen rigging online polls
Concord Group papers
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan discuss the Shutdown/Wall and Trump/Russia. Again. Then they squeeze in some international topics. Before that though, Ivan complains about the severe bone chilling 49 degree Fahrenheit cold spell in Southern Florida.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-01-25 Length this week – 1:56:18
(0:01:54-0:13:58) But First
Agenda
Predictions show correction
Slack invites
Ivan and Cold
(0:14:38-0:52:57) Shutdown
Trump’s first deal offer
Negotiating positions
Trump caves on the SOTU
The blame game
Trump on the ropes
A moral issue?
Ways out
Let them eat cake!
Escalating consequences
(0:54:40-1:29:09) Trump/Russia
Buzzfeed on Trump suborning perjury
Giuliani still an idiot
Russian asset?
Master plan vs stupidity
Clearances
Cohen testifying?
Open crimes vs hidden crimes
(1:29:46-1:55:57) International
NATO
Venezuela
Syria
Russia
Davos
Brexit
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
This week I’ll finally be doing some election geek posts over at ElectionGraphs.com with some analysis of the difference between the final state poll averages I had in 2008-2016 and the actual election results.
That kind of stuff is now over there, not here, so if you want it, you either need to be checking ElectionGraphs.com itself, subscribe to it with an RSS reader (RSS link), follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or follow Election Graphs on Facebook.
This is still analysis of old stuff. New stuff for 2020 will be coming soon, but not quite yet. I will probably post again here once that actually starts. But if you want my “election stuff” follow one of the above…
One preview graph from the first of this series of posts…
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan once again discuss the Shutdown/Wall and Trump/Russia. Before that though, a bit on the fast food feast at the White House, another movie Sam watched, and a story of a broken iPad.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-01-17 Length this week – 2:02:28
(0:04:12-0:25:06) But First
Preparation
Agenda
White House Fast Food
Sam Movie: Sense and Sensibility (1995)
Manu’s iPad
(0:25:42-1:07:02) Shutdown continues and repercussions:
Pelosi cancels SOTU
Negotiations
No emergency declaration?
Polls are hammering Trump on shutdown
McConnell strategy
Impacts of the shutdown
No deal in sight, how does this end?
(1:08:11-2:02:08 ) Trump Russia Corruption
Giuliani admits campaign colluded
Giuliani strategy
Putin meeting interpreter notes
Trump non-denial on Russia
FBI Counter-Intel investigation
Collusion with middle east
Trump vs Pence
Emoluments clause
Congressional prerogatives
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan get back to the normal format with the main topics being the Shutdown/Wall and Trump/Russia. Before that, a bit on the Mexican gas shortage and a movie Sam watched.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-01-11 Length this week – 1:45:43
(0:03:38-0:17:31) But First
Mexican gas shortage
Sam Movie: The Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 (2000)
(0:19:13-1:05:32) Shutdown / Wall
The walls themselves
Now what
Should the Dems take a deal?
The impact of the shutdown
National emergency?
Border neighbors
Live Address
Civility
(1:06:41-1:45:23) Trump / Russia
Manafort poll data
Improper redaction
Confirming conspiracy theories
Who knew what when?
Cohen testifying
Impeachable offenses?
Almost over?
Trump kids
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan review the predictions they made a year and a week ago for 2018. What did they get right? What did they get wrong? Were they amazing prognosticators, or would you have done better tossing coins or reading entrails? Tune in to find out…
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-01-05 Length this week – 2:08:50
(0:02:05-0:18:00) But First
(0:18:39-0:52:58) Politics
(0:53:35-1:11:26) Economy
(1:13:27-1:24:13) Technology
(1:25:33-1:39:32) International
(1:40:13-1:59:03) Hodgepodge
(1:59:48-2:08:30) Results
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
This week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner is the annual predictions show! Sam and Ivan give all their predictions for 2019 on the topics of domestic politics (both Trump and non-Trump), international politics, economy/business, technology, and other random things too. Tune in this week to hear the predictions, then listen every week in 2019 to see how they do!
Click below to listen and subscribe!
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Show Details:
Recorded 2018-12-28 Length this week – 2:53:50
(0:01:09-0:05:47) Intro
(0:07:47-0:48:17) Domestic Politics [non-Trump]
(0:49:01-1:54:34) Domestic Politics [Trump]
(1:55:14-2:10:25) International Politics
(2:13:02-2:25:06) Economy / Business
(2:25:44-2:39:55) Technology
(2:40:34-2:53:30) Hodgepodge
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
So what to do for 2020? – Election Graphs { […] the 2016 post mortem here is a list of where a bunch of the election tracking sites ended […] } on Electoral College: Post Mortem at 1 February 2019 00:04:01 UTC
Predicting 2016 by Cheating – Election Graphs { […] does this compare to where other folks were at the end of 2016? I looked at this in my last regular update prior to... } on Electoral College: Trump makes it tight again at 30 January 2019 00:01:22 UTC
Clearing things out for 2020 – Election Graphs { […] Election 2016 Post Mortem […] } on Electoral College: Post Mortem at 28 January 2019 07:59:19 UTC
Polling Averages vs Reality – Election Graphs { […] one of the key elements I called out in my 2016 Port Mortem was the need to “trust the uncertainty” and look at the range... } on Electoral College: Post Mortem at 27 January 2019 00:01:04 UTC
Ruth B { hmm! These prognosticators are right less than two-thirds of the time - but at least they are having a good time doing it! Go guys! } on Curmudgeon's Corner: 2018 Predictions Review at 7 January 2019 05:18:11 UTC
Abulsme.com: 2018 Reading List { […] a quarter of the way through 2018, I lamented that I wasn’t reading enough books, and made a resolution to do better. My goal... } on I'm not reading enough. I blame Trump. And Twitter. at 3 January 2019 04:18:43 UTC
Ed Haines { Re Roger stones: If I believed in corporal punishment, I would buy one to use at his stoning. PS, I still would oppose capital punishment. } on Curmudgeon's Corner: Dotted Lines at 23 December 2018 16:22:19 UTC
Abulsme { It was a good year! But he still usually won't answer direct questions! } on Alex is EIGHT!! at 2 November 2018 04:10:12 UTC
Abulsme { More messages I never answered on the website until over a year later... Oops. Yes, I was OK. Just a scraped knee. It was a... } on Sam rides Alex's new scooter... at 1 November 2018 05:38:31 UTC
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