This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

Get Posts by Email

Categories

AbulTags

Calendar

May 2016
S M T W T F S
« Apr    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031  

Electoral College: Trump Rebound?

There has been a lot of recent press about new national polls of the Clinton vs Trump race. Nobody should look at individual polls of course, but there have been enough polls now to move the averages. RCP has Trump +0.2%. Pollster has Clinton +1.6%. Pollster includes more polls and has a more sophisticated methodology, but the core result is the same… a close Clinton vs Trump race, and much closer than what looked to be the case a few weeks ago.

So what do we see looking at the electoral college view? Well, first of all, keep in mind that individual states tend to be polled less often than we get national polls, and some states are polled more often than others. So a state by state view like the one here, at least at this stage in the cycle, will react more slowly to rapid changes than the national numbers. If there is a big national change, you simply have to wait long enough to there to be enough new polls in enough states to move the state averages and then the national summary.

Since the last time I posted about a national model change on May 11th, there have been new general election polls in Oregon, Louisiana, Georgia (x2), Utah, New Hampshire, Arizona, New Jersey, Tennessee, Indiana, Florida (x3), Virginia, California, and Ohio. Of all of these, only the Florida polls have made a difference in my national summary.

chart-145

The three new polls, one of which was from early May but was only released a few days ago, all show Clinton ahead, but by less than 5%. This pulls Clinton’s lead back under 5%, specifically to a 4.2% lead.* The oldest poll in the average at the moment, showing a 13% Clinton lead, is now looking very much like an outlier, so it would not be surprising to see this look even closer when the next new poll is released.

This essentially reverses the changes from the May 11th update, and puts Florida back in play as a possible pick up for Trump.

chart-146

With Florida a possibility again, if Trump wins all the states he leads, plus all the states where Clinton is ahead by less than 5%, we end up at Clinton 279, Trump 259 – A 20 electoral vote win for Clinton.

Since Florida was the tipping point state, this also moves the tipping point:

chart-147

The new tipping point is North Carolina, where Clinton leads by 5.2%.

Trump’s “best case” is still to lose at the moment. But it is closer than it looked before.

So, the natural question here, especially given the national polls, is if this represents the end of the decline Trump has been suffering since January, and the start of a process where the state by state race starts looking as close as the national race polling averages would indicate.

The only real answer to that is that it is too soon to tell and we need to wait for more state polls to see if we see other states moving. But it would not be surprising if we see exactly that in the next few weeks.

With the results of both primary races essentially settled, but with Trump rapidly consolidating his party while Clinton is still dealing with Sanders, a tightening makes a lot of sense.

As Trump turns his attention to the general election, he will also presumably presumably do the traditional “pivot” to start courting voters that may have been turned off by his performance in the primaries. There have already been a number of moves in this direction.

We may have just seen Trump’s low point and the beginning of his rebound. Or this may be a blip. We shall see soon enough. The pace of new state level general election polls is quickening.

168.2 days until polls start to close on election night. A lot will happen in that time. Stay tuned.

* For anybody watching really carefully, because of the order in which I found these polls, two were added on Sunday and with those the chart showed a move from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton on the 8th based on the poll that was taken in early May but released just last week, with a return to Strong Clinton on the 18th with a more recent poll. Since there was no net change from the addition of these two polls, even though they created a move back and forward on the charts, I did not do a post on Sunday. With a new poll added today that has the same middate in the field as the later of the two polls I added Sunday, the return movement that had been on the 18th was erased and there was now an overall change prompting this post. It looks odd that the movement on the chart is from the 8th, but I am not posting about it until the 24th, but the above is why.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Cynthia is a Vet!

image

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Interviews with Republicans

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast we do something different. Sam interviews Bruce, Michael, Matt, and Kelly… all people who participated in this year’s Republican primary process. He gets their thoughts on this year’s field, the candidates they supported, and what they think about things now that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee. New perspectives beyond what we usually hear from Sam and Ivan!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20151125bw
Recorded 2016-05-19

Length this week – 2:32:03

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
 View Podcast in iTunes
 View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook

Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:04:13) Introduction
  • (0:04:52-0:38:21) Bruce from Washington (33.5 minutes)
  • (0:39:24-1:18:28) Michael from Pennsylvania (39.1 minutes)
  • (1:19:08-1:42:30) Matt from Illinois (23.4 minutes)
  • (1:43:34-2:24:01) Kelly from Pennsylvania (40.5 minutes)
  • (2:25:09-2:31:44) Conclusion

Republicans: Trump continues his march to 1237

With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.

After Nebraska and West Virginia, Trump needed 22.57% of the remaining delegates to win.

In Oregon, Trump got 19 delegates, while Kasich picked up 5 and Cruz picked up 4, even though neither of them are actively running any more.

In other changes since Nebraska and West Virginia due to uncommitted delegate preference changes in Guam, finalization of the West Virginia results taking into account geographic restrictions, and an update from New York, there was a net change of Trump +6, Kasich +2, Cruz -1

So total change since Nebraska and West Virginia: Trump +25, Kasich +7, Cruz +3

So Trump actually got 71.43% of the delegates since Nebraska and West Virginia.

So while he didn’t completely sweep the delegates this week, he is still far ahead of the target pace he needs to get to 1237.

Updated graphs:

chart-143

New delegate totals: Trump 1167, Cruz 574, Rubio 168, Kasich 163, Carson 7, Bush 4, Fiorina 1, Huckabee 1, Paul 1.

There are 386 delegates left. Trump needs 70 of them.

chart-144

Trump now needs 18.13% of the remaining delegates to win.

Update 2016-05-22 16:12 UTC – Oregon update: Cruz +1, Kasich -1.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Democrats: Sanders wins the 17th, but once again it doesn’t matter

With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.

After West Virginia, Sanders needed 84.90% of the remaining delegates to win, Clinton only needed 15.29%.

In Oregon and Kentucky, Sanders got 62, Clinton got 54.

In other changes since West Virginia due to superdelegate updates, there was a net change of Clinton +1, Sanders -1.

So total change since West Virginia: Sanders +61, Clinton +55.

That is Sanders 52.59%, Clinton 47.41%.

So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not.

Updated graphs:

chart-141

New delegate totals: Clinton 2275, Sanders 1539, O’Malley 1.

There are 950 delegates left. Clinton needs 108 of them. Sanders needs 844 of them.

chart-142

Clinton now needs 11.37% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 88.84%.

Update 2016-05-25 02:26 UTC: Superdelegate scan – Clinton +3.

Update 2016-05-25 02:28 UTC: Change from Maryland – Sanders +1, Clinton -1.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: It works better in the ear

This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan talk about television, thermostats, manipulating public opinion and a few other things besides Election 2016, but of course most of the show ends up being about the election. They cover the last gasp Sanders path to the nomination, Trump zig-zagging on the issues, the Republican civil war, and possible Trump VPs. Oh, and Sam’s son Alex keeps interrupting to promote his YouTube channel.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20151125bw
Recorded 2016-05-12

Length this week – 1:35:45

 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
 View Podcast in iTunes
 View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook

Show Details:

  • (0:01:24-0:21:00) But First
    • Failed Alex Plan
    • Agenda
    • Feedback
    • TV Habits
    • More Election Graphs Comments
  • (0:22:21-0:52:01) Hodgepodge
    • Thermostats
    • Bernie’s Path
    • Facebook Trending Topics
    • Manipulating the Press
  • (0:52:41-1:04:08) Trump Zigzags
    • Trump on the National Debt
    • Trump on Taxes
    • Trump on Self-funding
    • Trump on Muslim ban
    • Trump on Hispanics
    • Trump on Tax Returns
    • Trump on Minimum Wage
    • So… Trump Pivot?
  • (1:05:12-1:35:25) Republican Civil War
    • Support the Nominee
    • Trump vs Ryan
    • Trump and turnout
    • Third Party Options
    • Ultimate Mole?
    • Clinton landslide?
    • Most Unfavorable Ever
    • Trump/Gingrich?
    • Alex Interruption
    • More on Newt
    • Other VP candidates
    • Alex’s Youtube channel

Republicans: Trump sweeps Nebraska and West Virginia

With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.

After Indiana, Trump needed 36.02% of the remaining delegates to win.

In Nebraska and West Virginia, Trump seems to have gotten all 70 of the available delegates. (There may end up being some oddness due to West Virginia geographic restrictions on delegate allocation that shifts this slightly.)

In other changes since Indiana due to uncommitted delegate preference changes in American Samoa and Louisiana as well as Louisiana’s Rubio delegates moving to Trump, there were net changes of: Trump +14, Cruz -3, Rubio -5.

So total change since Indiana: Trump +84, Cruz -3, Rubio -5

So Trump actually got 111% of the delegates since Indiana. (Over 100% is possible since he actually took delegates from his opponents as well as collecting “new” delegates.)

So Trump obviously well exceeded the required numbers to be on pace for a win.

Updated graphs:

chart-139

New delegate totals: Trump 1142, Cruz 571, Rubio 168, Kasich 156, Carson 7, Bush 4, Fiorina 1, Huckabee 1, Paul 1.

There are 421 delegates left. Trump needs 95 of them.

chart-140

Trump now needs 22.57% of the remaining delegates to win.

Update 2016-05-14 14:31 UTC: Once the geographic restrictions on delegates was finalized and factored in, the final results in West Virginia were officially Trump 30, Kasich 1, Uncommitted 3. Two of the three uncommitted delegates have stated they are for Trump though, so we count this as Trump 32, Kasich 1, TBD 1. Net change from before: Trump -2, Kasich +1.

Update 2016-05-17 17:03 UTC: Update from New York. Net change: Trump -1, Kasich +1.

Update 2016-05-18 17:26 UTC: Update from Guam uncommitted delegates. Net Change Trump +9, Cruz -1.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Democrats: Sanders wins West Virginia and falls further behind

With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.

After Guam, Sanders needed 84.23% of the remaining delegates to win, Clinton only needed 15.95%.

In West Virginia, Sanders got 18, Clinton got 11.

In other changes since Guam due to superdelegate updates and revisions in the results from Maine, there was a net change of Clinton +1, Sanders +1.

So total change since Guam: Sanders +19, Clinton +12.

That is Sanders 61.29%, Clinton 38.71%.

So Clinton met her target, Sanders did not.

Updated graphs:

chart-137

New delegate totals: Clinton 2220, Sanders 1478, O’Malley 1.

There are 1066 delegates left. Clinton needs 163 of them. Sanders needs 905 of them.

chart-138

Clinton now needs 15.29% of the remaining delegates to win. Sanders needs 84.90%.

Update 2016-05-14 16:09: Superdelegate scan yields net change Clinton +2.

Update 2016-05-17 16:56: Superdelegate scan yields net change Clinton -2.

Update 2016-05-18 14:44: Superdelegate scan yields net change Clinton +1, Sanders -1

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Electoral College: Trump weakens as Florida moves toward Clinton

Since the last electoral college update there have been polls in West Virginia, New York, Georgia, Massachusetts, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Of all of these, only the one in Florida made a notable change to the overall picture of the election.

This was one of three Quinnipiac Swing State polls that were released on May 10th covering Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

These polls got lots of press for showing a close Clinton vs Trump race in the three key states. But in both Ohio and Pennsylvania when you include the new polls in the average of the other recent polls, there was no change to the status of the states in the Election Graphs model. Ohio was and remains a “Weak Clinton” state… Clinton now leads by 3.4%. Pennsylvania was and remains a “Strong Clinton” state… Clinton now leads by 6.4%.

In Florida there was a category change, but despite the hype, the change doesn’t make the state look closer, instead it shows Clinton increasing her lead. Let’s look at this more closely.

chart (111)

The new poll shows Clinton leading by only 1%, which is better for Trump than the previous average, which showed Clinton leading by 3.7%. So why did the average move toward Clinton instead of toward Trump? Well, to understand this, you need to look not at where the average was before, but instead at the polls being replaced in the average.

In this case the new Clinton by 1% poll replaced two polls*, one where Trump led by 2.7% in January, and the other where Trump led by 2.0% in February. So the average moves toward Clinton because even though the new poll was better than the recent average and the next most recent poll (which had Clinton +13%), it was worse than the older polls falling out of the average.

Looking at the dots for the individual polls, as well as the trend line, you can see that while the new poll does indeed show a close race, it now means that only one out of the last five polls in Florida show a Trump lead, while up until March you saw Trump leading many of the polls in Florida. He led in the average. The fact that people are now pushing “Trump is only 1% behind Clinton in Florida” as a good poll for Trump is actually an indication of the fact that he has fallen so much that this result is now unusually good for Trump. Back in early March it would have been completely unremarkable.

Looking at the average again, the line has been moving toward Clinton since March. With the Quinnipiac poll replacing the older polls where Trump was leading, Clinton’s lead in the state is up to 5.6%, which moves the state to “Strong Clinton” and takes Florida out of the list of states we give him in the “best case”.

So nationwide, the new situation looks like this:

chart (112)

chart (113)

Without Florida, if Trump wins all the states he is ahead in, plus all the states Clinton is ahead by less than 5%, Trump loses by 78 electoral votes. This is a new low for Trump’s best case. The Trump deterioration that started in January continues.

Having said that, while this looks like an easy Clinton win, when people start talking about a Democratic win of historic proportions, the evidence doesn’t yet support that. Looking now at the expected case rather than Trump’s best case… so each candidate just wins all the states where they lead in the poll average… you get Clinton 338, Trump 200…  a 138 electoral vote win.

By comparison, Romney lost by 126 electoral votes and McCain lost by 192 electoral votes. So right now Trump is doing worse than Romney, but still better than McCain. This is a solid loss of course, but we are nowhere near the comparisons some people are making to a possible Mondale style loss. (Mondale lost by 512 electoral votes to Reagan).

Even Trump’s worst case right now (losing by 230 electoral votes) is only in the neighborhood of Dole’s loss to Bill Clinton (217 electoral votes) and not even in Dukakis territory (losing by 315 electoral votes to GHW Bush). And of course Trump’s best case, while still a loss, would be better than either Romney or McCain did. We are a long way from Mondale.

With the Florida change, the tipping point also moved, which gives a different view:

chart (114)

The tipping point is the margin in the state that would put the winner over the top. Right now it is Clinton’s 5.6% lead in Florida. What this means though is that you only need 2.8% of people to change their minds nationwide, and enough states flip that Trump would be winning. Given how divided the electorate is, that might actually be pretty difficult, but it doesn’t sound anywhere near as dire as the electoral college view. Changing the minds of 3% of Americans seems quite possible.

We have 181.8 days left until polls start to close on election day. Trump may be down right now, but there is still lots of time left. That may change. Do not be surprised if things tighten before election day… or if Clinton widens her lead further. There is still plenty of room for movement.

* The previous Clinton by 3.7% average was one of the cases where the Election Graphs poll average is based on six polls instead of the normal five. This happened because the five poll average resulted in a Clinton lead of exactly 5%. The primary purpose of the poll average on Election Graphs is not the average itself, but rather to categorize each state into one of the six categories… weak, strong, or solid for each candidate. 5% is the boundary between weak and strong, so additional older polls are pulled in as needed to get the average off the fence and put the average solidly in one category. In this case the one additional poll pulled the average back toward Trump and resulted in the 3.7% Clinton lead.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.

Democrats: Clinton wins Guam

Clinton won Guam. She got 4 delegates. Sanders got 3.

This is of course a tiny number of delegates and changes nothing.

In addition, since Indiana, 3 more superdelegates were added to Clinton’s total, and one pledged delegate in Mississippi moved from Clinton to Sanders due to updates there.

So the net change since Indiana is Clinton +6, Sanders +4.

This difference is barely visible in the charts, but here are the updated charts anyway:

chart-135

New overall totals: Clinton 2208, Sanders 1459, O’Malley 1.

You’d think at some point that O’Malley superdelegate would say they support someone else. But not yet.

chart-136

Clinton now only needs 15.95% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.

Sanders would need 84.23% of the remaining delegates to catch up and win.

And so we continue to watch the Clinton win play out.

Update 2016-05-11 05:26 UTC: Superdelegate update – Clinton +2.

Update 2016-05-11 05:33 UTC: Update from Maine – Sanders +1, Clinton -1.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.