This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme tweets from 2015-03-03 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-03-02 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-03-01 (UTC)

Pics from Jan 2015

1027 pictures for the month. First pass got it down to 80. Next to 48. Then finally to the 31 here.

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2015-01-01 07:58 UTC – Sometimes waiting for the new year is not fun.

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2015-02-01 08:04 UTC – Then the fireworks start.

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2015-01-01 08:07 UTC – Then everybody was happy again. And it was 2015!

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2015-01-02 02:07 UTC – For our anniversary, Brandy painted the planets as fruit. It is on the wall in my office now.

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2015-01-03 00:02 UTC – We had to go to the courthouse in Seattle to pick up some documents. It has some pretty floors.

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2015-01-03 00:08 UTC – We got there and back via the Bus/Train tunnel under Seattle. That was fun.

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2015-01-03 04:35 UTC – Alex still prefers to wear his pants on his head instead of on his legs. We can usually get him to confine this fashion choice to home… usually.

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2015-01-06 04:19 UTC – As usual, Roscoe is very patient. He is a good dog.

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2015-01-09 13:34 UTC (picture by Brandy?) – Mike is a good skink too. But he doesn’t get to play with Alex much.

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2015-01-09 21:50 UTC (Picture by Brandy) – We finally got Amy a new used car to replace the one totaled in November. She looks thrilled.

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2015-01-09 21:51 UTC (Picture by Brandy): OK, that’s better.

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2015-01-09 22:28 UTC – It is a Pontiac Aztek.

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2015-01-10 23:54 UTC – Grandma Ruth helps Alex with a new Lego set.

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2015-01-10 23:55 UTC – Sara really wants to help!

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2015-01-11 19:59 UTC – Not sure exactly what we were watching here, but Alex was obviously impressed by it.

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2015-01-12 05:04 UTC – Alex’s obsession with Minecraft increased in January. Mostly with Pocket Edition in Creative mode, although not always. More often than not though, this is not a solo endeavor, but includes several family members playing together. Here Alex and Amy work together while I watch.

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2015-01-12 05:29 UTC – Roscoe sometimes plays with the iPad too. For sufficiently broad definitions of “plays”.

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2015-01-12 05:53 UTC – Here are Alex and Amy playing Minecraft together from the other side of the screen.

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2015-01-12 05:54 UTC – Roscoe wants to participate, but it is just so sleepy in here.

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2015-01-13 08:33 UTC (Time when I got the picture, not when it was taken, Picture taken by Domography Photography) – Amy got a pro picture of herself for some reason. Came out great!

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2015-01-15 14:27 UTC – Amy wanted to go to the annual company party with me and Brandy, but each person is only allowed one guest, so I had to ask if someone else at work would have Amy as a guest.  So she made a sad face. We found a volunteer. So Amy would be able to go.

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2015-01-17 02:52 UTC – But before party time, Alex was Minecrafting as usual. Here he built “a statue of Daddy”. He had my Minecraft avatar stand in front of him as a reference while he built the statue.

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2015-01-18 04:34 UTC – At the party, Amy engages in one of the art activities.

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2015-01-18 05:37 UTC – Brandy and Amy wanted to go to the party for the music. The opening band was “Walk the Moon“. Amy ended up with their set list hand written on a plate they threw into the crowd.

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2015-01-18 06:15 UTC –  The main band was “Weezer“.  This is Rivers Cuomo. He looks like a normal dude.

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2015-01-18 06:15 UTC – This is Brian Bell. He looks scary. But Amy ended up with one of his guitar picks that was thrown to the crowd anyway. Yup, two souvenirs from the show.

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2015-01-20 05:12 UTC – Meanwhile Alex continues to build more and more elaborate things in Minecraft. This was a roller coaster he built, including a station where you get in and out, a ticket stand, etc.

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2015-01-22 09:33 UTC (Picture by Amy on my phone) – One night Amy found me, Alex and Roscoe like this on the couch.

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2015-01-26 06:58 UTC – Sometimes though, you don’t even make it to the couch.

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2015-01-27 21:00 UTC – Oh yeah, Brandy also got completely obsessed with Minecraft and spent many hours building things. This was one of her houses.

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2015-01-30 05:06 UTC – Roscoe looks on as Alex continues Minecrafting at the end of the month. This time on the full computer version. Still creative mode, not survival mode very often yet. But February awaits.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2015-02-28 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-02-28 (UTC)

Electoral College: Bush slips in Nevada too

There were six states where the average margin over the last five presidential elections was less than 5%. Those states were Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia and Missouri. Since the 2012 election we’ve had lots of 2016 general election match up polls in Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia. But nothing in Nevada or Missouri. No polls at all.

Today I added the first Nevada results for the 2016 cycle, a recent poll from Gravis.

The only category change coming out of this was for Clinton vs Bush.

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The margin over the past five elections in Nevada had ranged from the Republican by 3.5% (in 2000) to the Democrat by 12.5% (in 2008), but the average was Democrats by 2.8%, which gave Nevada an initial classification of “Weak Clinton”.

Gravis polled five different Republicans against Clinton. One of them (Sandoval) actually beat Clinton. The rest lost, and generally by a worse margin than the old average, but not by enough to push the average into a new category. Bush on the other hand did VERY badly in this poll, losing to Clinton 50% to 37%, or a 13% margin.

As the first actual head to head polling in Nevada, we’re still basing things primarily on old presidential election results, but that bad a result was able to single handedly move the the average to a 5.2% Clinton lead, and thus moved Nevada into the “Strong Clinton” category.

According to my simple model, this takes the state out of the list of possible Bush wins. At least for now… Perhaps this poll is an outlier and the next poll will make the state closer again. With one real poll, you wouldn’t want to feel too confident of what this stare really looks like quite yet.

For now though, this of course further lowers Bush’s “best case”:

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This makes the full national summary for Clinton vs Bush look like this today:

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Now, this doesn’t look great for Bush, but he may start improving in Nevada (and other states) as we start getting into real campaigning.  Maggie Haberman is reporting in the New York Times that the first TV ads specifically targeting Clinton will air this weekend. These of course will not be the last. It will not be surprising to see things move toward the Republicans as this process gets into full swing.

And of course we still need polls in Missouri. :-)

So…  stay tuned.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available.

[Edit 06:06 UTC to add note at end which will become standard on these update posts.]

Curmudgeon’s Corner: All Kinds of Noises

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Iván talk about:
* Bill O’Reilly vs Brian Williams
* Questioning Patriotism and Religion
* Iran and Israel
* Lightning Round

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Recorded 2015-02-26

Length this week – 1:14:36

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@abulsme tweets from 2015-02-27 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2015-02-26 (UTC)