This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on
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This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about all things Manafort, Pelosi’s comments on impeachment, and the problems with the Boeing 737 Max. Also, Ivan talks about some online dating statistics and a movie he watched, while Sam gives one last reminder about the Seattle meetup.
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Recorded 2019-03-14 Length this week – 1:49:58
(0:01:50-0:12:45) But First
(0:13:24-0:46:30) All Things Manafort
(0:49:46-1:15:00) Pelosi on Impeachment
(1:16:10-1:49:38) Boeing 737 Max
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about Cohen revealing there were talks about pardons, that long rambly Trump speech, Fox news acting as an extension of Trump, Representative Omar’s comments, and a bunch more. Yes, it is a lightning round show! You even get Ivan ranting about tangled cables, Sam plugging his Election Graphs site, and another reminder about the Seattle meetup!
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Recorded 2019-03-07 Length this week – 1:47:44
(0:02:28-0:07:58) But First
Agenda
Busy Ivan
Seattle Meetup
(0:09:14-1:01:01) Lightning Round 1
Ivan: Cable Tangles
Sam: Election Graphs
Ivan: Rep Omar
Sam: Cohen Pardons
(1:02:22-1:47:23) Lightning Round 2
Ivan: Trade Deficit
Sam: Tracking journalists
Ivan: Long Trump speech
Sam: Fox News
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
So, I mentioned a while ago that I wouldn’t be posting here regularly about developments over on my site Election Graphs. And I won’t. But I did want to mention that although I’m about four months later than I had wanted to be, and I haven’t yet made some of the changes and additions I have been thinking about, Election Graphs 2020ย is now live and up to date with the sixteen 2020 state polls that have already been released, and I’ll be continuing to update it as new polls are released.
Recent highlights:
2019-01-27: Polling Averages vs Realityย – The first in a six-part series looking at how polling averages compared to actual election results in the last three election cycles. (Links to the other five posts in the series are in the first post.)
2019-03-03: The 2020 Starting Lineย – A post looking at the average state by state election results for the past five cycles (2000-2016) to try to define what the “starting line” for the 2020 race looks like. This places each state where it would be based on this nearly 20-year history.
2019-03-08: The First 2020 Pollsย – The kick off for actually looking at real polls for 2020, pitting various Democrats against Trump. The main theme so far… based on the very limited polling so far, Biden does better against Trump than the other four of the five “best polled” Democrats. (That would be Warren, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Harris.)
That kind of stuff is now over there, not here, so if you want it, you either need to be checking ElectionGraphs.com itself, subscribe to it with an RSS reader (RSS link), follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or like and follow Election Graphs on Facebook.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about the Cohen hearings, the North Korean summit, Ivan’s trip to Vietnam, the Florida sex trafficking ring, and the India/Pakistan conflict. Plus, a reminder of the upcoming Seattle meetup.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-03-02 Length this week – 1:46:54
(0:00:20-0:22:38) But First
Agenda
Seattle Meetup
Ivan in Vietnam
(0:23:22-1:08:54) Cohen Testimony
Everything priced in?
Republican response
AOC performance
Cohen’s receipts
Cohen denials
Democratic plans
(1:10:03-1:24:01) North Korean Summit
How not to do a summit
Trump trusting dictators
Credit for Trump?
(1:25:21-1:46:34) Mini Lightning Round
Ivan: Florida sex trafficking ring
Sam: India and Pakistan
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, first Ed joins Sam for a lightning round. They of course cover the latest Mueller developments, but also tax refunds, Venezuela, some books Ed read, and more. Then for the last part of the show, Sam is joined by his wife Brandy, who is attending the Power Rising conference and talks about her experiences there, including hearing from Stacey Abrams and Kamala Harris.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-02-22 Length this week – 1:48:15
(0:00:20-1:13:12) Lightning Round
Ed: Thwaites Glacier
Sam: Tax Refunds
Ed: Venezuela
Sam: Mueller Time
Ed: Books: Life on the Edge (2015) / Biocentrism (2009)
Sam: Foiled attack on politicians and journalists
(1:13:56-1:47:46) Power Rising
What is Power Rising about?
Movie: Amazing Grace (2018)
What is it like?
Stacey Abrams
Kamala Harris
Memorable highlights
New Orleans
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner… lightning rounds! Sam and Ivan talk about a total of 17 different topics this time around. These include… the snow in Seattle, Roger Stone, the Green New Deal, Paul Manafort, a correction to something Sam said last week, food delivery, translating Trump into other languages, the National Emergency, an upcoming Seattle Curmudgeon’s Corner meetup, and of course eight other things too. Enjoy!
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-02-16 Length this week – 2:40:00
(0:00:20-0:28:09) But First
Trump translations
Agenda
Curmudgeon’s Corner Seattle meetup
Correction about Tucson
Seattle snow
Food delivery
(0:29:53-1:10:31) Lightning Round I
Ivan: Glenn Greenwald
Sam: Book: The Zimmerman Telegram (1985)
Ivan: Movie: Geostorm (2017)
Sam: Green New Deal
(1:12:32-2:04:20) Lightning Round II
Ivan: Paper Bank Statements
Sam: Doing a “Clinton Email”
Ivan: Manafort
Sam: Stone
(2:05:29-2:39:42) Lightning Round III
Ivan: National Emergency
Sam: Bill Weld 2020
Ivan: McCabe and the 25th
Sam: Democratic debate rules
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about a phishing link Sam clicked on, the Bezos blackmail attempt, the Virginia mess, and the latest Trump stuff. They also do a run down of the Democratic field for the 2020 Presidential race. Oh, and they have news about a Seattle meetup, and more!
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-02-08 Length this week – 2:32:23
(0:00:20-0:08:56) But First
Agenda
Bruce predictions
Seattle Meetup being planned
(0:11:09-1:21:12) Potpourri
Sam Clicked a phishing link
Bezos Blackmail
Virginia Mess
(1:21:53-1:49:09) Trump
Executive time
SOTU
SDNY Investigating Trump inaugural
New House investigations
(1:50:29-2:32:03) Democratic candidate roundup
The whole field
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Beto O’Rourke
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
The others
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Ivan finally gets his Potpourri segments! In those, he and Sam talk about Ivan being cold, reports of Texas voter fraud, an update on the economy and markets, the Huawei fraud charges, and a bunch of other stuff. Including Sam getting blasted by a famous poll watcher. Oh, and of course they talk about the shutdown ending and the continuing Trump/Russia scandals.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-02-01 Length this week – 2:12:40
(0:01:26-0:11:37) But First
Agenda
Sam is tired
(0:14:15-0:56:39) Potpourri! Part 1
Nate Silver calls Sam incompetent
Ivan in actual real cold
Economy and markets update
Huawei Fraud charges
(0:57:16-1:19:26) Potpourri! Part 2
Texas bullshit
Venezuela
Brexit
Howard Shultz
(1:20:46-1:39:14) Shutdown
Trump Caves
Negotiations
SOTU
(1:39:45-2:12:20) Trump Russia
Roger Stone
Capone model
Cohen testimony
Mueller almost done?
Cohen rigging online polls
Concord Group papers
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan discuss the Shutdown/Wall and Trump/Russia. Again. Then they squeeze in some international topics. Before that though, Ivan complains about the severe bone chilling 49 degree Fahrenheit cold spell in Southern Florida.
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Show Details:
Recorded 2019-01-25 Length this week – 1:56:18
(0:01:54-0:13:58) But First
Agenda
Predictions show correction
Slack invites
Ivan and Cold
(0:14:38-0:52:57) Shutdown
Trump’s first deal offer
Negotiating positions
Trump caves on the SOTU
The blame game
Trump on the ropes
A moral issue?
Ways out
Let them eat cake!
Escalating consequences
(0:54:40-1:29:09) Trump/Russia
Buzzfeed on Trump suborning perjury
Giuliani still an idiot
Russian asset?
Master plan vs stupidity
Clearances
Cohen testifying?
Open crimes vs hidden crimes
(1:29:46-1:55:57) International
NATO
Venezuela
Syria
Russia
Davos
Brexit
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
The 2020 Starting Line – Election Graphs { […] Before I start rolling in the state polls that have already come out, let's look at a more general Democratic vs Republican view based... } on Electoral College: The Race Begins at 3 March 2019 04:26:58 UTC
So what to do for 2020? – Election Graphs { […] be fair, there was a lot of movement just in the last day of poll updates. Before that, I had a 108 EV margin... } on Electoral College: Trump makes it tight again at 27 February 2019 01:16:20 UTC
So what to do for 2020? – Election Graphs { […] the 2016 post mortem here is a list of where a bunch of the election tracking sites ended […] } on Electoral College: Post Mortem at 1 February 2019 00:04:01 UTC
Predicting 2016 by Cheating – Election Graphs { […] does this compare to where other folks were at the end of 2016? I looked at this in my last regular update prior to... } on Electoral College: Trump makes it tight again at 30 January 2019 00:01:22 UTC
Clearing things out for 2020 – Election Graphs { […] Election 2016 Post Mortem […] } on Electoral College: Post Mortem at 28 January 2019 07:59:19 UTC
Polling Averages vs Reality – Election Graphs { […] one of the key elements I called out in my 2016 Port Mortem was the need to “trust the uncertainty” and look at the range... } on Electoral College: Post Mortem at 27 January 2019 00:01:04 UTC
Ruth B { hmm! These prognosticators are right less than two-thirds of the time - but at least they are having a good time doing it! Go guys! } on Curmudgeon's Corner: 2018 Predictions Review at 7 January 2019 05:18:11 UTC
Abulsme.com: 2018 Reading List { […] a quarter of the way through 2018, I lamented that I wasn’t reading enough books, and made a resolution to do better. My goal... } on I'm not reading enough. I blame Trump. And Twitter. at 3 January 2019 04:18:43 UTC
Ed Haines { Re Roger stones: If I believed in corporal punishment, I would buy one to use at his stoning. PS, I still would oppose capital punishment. } on Curmudgeon's Corner: Dotted Lines at 23 December 2018 16:22:19 UTC
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