This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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December 2003
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Ace of Spades in the Hole

Iraq Council Confirms Saddam Caught Alive
(Hamzo Hendawi of AP on Washington Post)

U.S. military captured Saddam Hussein alive in his hometown of Tikrit on Sunday, eight months after the fall of Baghdad, the Iraqi Governing Council said. Celebratory gunfire erupted in Baghdad.

(via Google News)

Wow. They actually got him alive, and according to General Sanchez who is briefing live on TV as I write this, not only alive, but without a single shot fired, and Saddam is talkative and cooperative right now. He was hiding in a hole. They are showing pictures of him being examined and with his beard on and such. He looks like hell, but it is definately him.

Much better result than with Uday and Husay.

All of the things they have been completely screwing up in Iraq aside, kudos to all involved today. This is a major success for the administration, and will be a huge positive in the situation in Iraq. Good job!

Missing the Point

I have some things I have to run and do, so this will be short, but I wanted to comment quickly on the whole controversy about the administration restricting reconstruction contracts to countries who supported the US position on the war.

Everybody is talking about how either this is justified, or how it is shooting ourselves in the foot by once again alienating allies, etc. I did even see one place (by David Adesnik at Oxblog) where it was discussed that those were the wrong arguments and it should all be about what is good for the Iraqi’s and the decision should be made on that basis. That gets close, but still misses the point.

Yes, making this decision one way or another potentially has a lot of impact on all sorts of things, pro and con, in terms of how this will effect the US, our allies, and Iraq in the future. And things can be said for both sides. (I personally think restricting the contracts is asinine.) But… the main problem, that I haven’t seen discussed (maybe I just missed it)… is that IT SHOULD NOT BE OUR DECISION.

Yes, it is too soon to turn over full control to the Iraqi’s. The current council is not elected, and has many issues. Security and borders and foreign policy are certainly not things that can be handed over yet. But reconstruction, and control of the oil production, etc, is CERTAINLY something that can and should be governed by Iraqi’s. It should not be people in the White House, Pentagon, or State Department who are deciding which contracts are given to who to put things back together in Iraq. It should be the Iraqi council.

If we feel some additional funding is needed beyond what can be raised in Iraq proper (which I’m sure is the case) then that funding should be provided, and there should of course be some oversight against blatant corruption and mis-direction of the funds. But at this point the decision making on many of these matters should be firmly in Iraqi hands.

The fact that at this point we retain control of such critical economic decisions just leaves a bad taste in ones mouth of “to the victor goes the spoils” rather than any sort of noble purposes which would be legitimate in our presence there.

OK. Back to doing the stuff I am supposed to be doing right now.

Unfortunate, But True

Conditions favor Bush win in 2004
(Dick Polman, Philadephia Inquirer)

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, among others who chart election trends, said: “Increasingly, all the underlying factors are lining up in Bush’s favor. It’ll be a tough road for the Democrats. Their chances aren’t impossible, just remote.”

Its a nice little summary of the historical trends which point to a Bush reelection at this point. Now, 11 months is indeed a long time. And a lot may yet happen. So it really is too early for a real prediction. However, if a couple things hold:

  • No major worsening in the Iraq situation
  • The economy continues on an upward course
  • No major new terrorist attack in the US
  • No major NEW international crisis
  • No major domestic screwup

    Then W has it in the bag. People will vote on their pocketbooks, and it will be a done deal. In a reversal of either of the first two, it hurts W. The second two, throw everything up into the air. Depending on the details, it could be either bad or good for W.

    With Dean rapidly consolidating the Democrats, he also looks like the presumptive nominee unless he screws up (which he very well could do, he has the potential). Dean would then have to make a major swing rightward to have a chance, and he may not be able to do that effectively. He certainly could not win the required number of electoral votes with his current voice absent a complete collapse on the Bush side.

    Well, we shall see. 11 months yet. Not time to call the winner quite yet. Maybe by March or June. :-)

  • Twas the Night before Christmas… at CMU

    Wow, this brings back memories… For several years while I was at Carnegie Mellon, my friend Chad and I worked at the Fine and Rare Book Room at CMU’s Hunt Library. One of the things we had to help catalog and keep in order and good condition and such was indeed CMU’s collection of copies of this poem.

    Carnegie Mellon houses collection of “‘Twas the Night Before Christmas”
    AP on NEPA News

    “The illustrations are almost always showing a nostalgic view of life in the United States,” said Mary Kay Johnsen, the special collections librarian at the Hunt Library. “The illustrations are always showing toys of the parents’ generation, not of the toys the kids would be receiving with the book of that year.”

    (via Google News: Carnegie Mellon)

    Mary Kay was our boss at the library. She is still there. And here she is quoted by the AP. Very nice. Those were good days. I remember spending a good deal of time looking at those books.

    Ah, memories…

    I Know Why The Rug Is Blue

    For those out there who might be interested… Since I was introduced to her back in the beginning of 2003, I’ve been spending a lot of time with Brandy. (See recent Email Top Ten results.) That is especially true since I bought my house and moved to PA. She has helped me a lot with the new place and all sorts of other things. And we’ve just been hanging out a lot and going out and doing things together and such. In any case, as of a few weeks ago we switched from “just friends” mode to “dating” mode and are doing the couple thing it seems. :-)

    Brandy teased me about making a blog entry announcing it, since I do them about lots of things, and I hesitated for a couple weeks because I’ve had bad luck sharing such information in the past, and tend to prefer to keep such things mostly to myself. But it is snowing today, and I feel like it, so I thought I would go ahead.

    So Brandy, here ya go, the “I Know Why The Rug Is Blue” post is real. :-) [Inside Joke] See you when the roads are passable again. :-)

    Dean overtakes Libertarian

    On my personal results on the SelectSmart Presidential Selector that is…

    Periodically I’ll go take the quiz and see what the results are. They update the selector with new or better information periodically, but probably more significantly my views and opinions morph over time. I know W is driving me to the left of where I once was by his whole approach to everything. And while I generally keep a Libertarian philosophy to most things, I am softening on that and being more practical in some areas and beginning to say, “Well, OK, for THAT maybe Government involvement is OK…” End result, I am moving left. For the first time in the several years and couple of elections that SelectSmart has had these things, I have gotten someone other than the Libertarian as my best match. And that person is Howard Dean. Hmmm…

    Select Smart Presidental Selector

    Your Results:
    1. Your ideal theoretical candidate.   (100%)
    2. Dean, Gov. Howard, VT – Democrat   (56%)
    3. Kucinich, Rep. Dennis, OH – Democrat   (55%)  
    4. Libertarian Candidate   (55%)
    5. Edwards, Senator John, NC – Democrat   (53%)
    6. Clark, General Wesley K., AR – Democrat   (51%) 
    7. Gephardt, Rep. Dick, MO – Democrat   (46%) 
    8. Kerry, Senator John, MA – Democrat   (45%)
    9. Sharpton, Reverend Al – Democrat   (43%)
    10. Bush, President George W. – Republican   (39%)
    11. LaRouche, Lyndon H. Jr. – Democrat   (31%)
    12. Lieberman, Senator Joe, CT – Democrat   (26%)
    13. Moseley-Braun, Senator Carol, IL – Democrat   (20%)
    14. Phillips, Howard – Constitution   (19%)

    Of course, my matching rate is still only 56%, which is pretty low. I listen to Dean in debates and while I agree on some things, I disagree strongly on others. And I look at him and just don’t think he has the right temperment to be president. I don’t know. The biggest issue I have with him is Iraq I think. Pre-War I probably would have agreed with him 100%. I think going in was stupid, provocative, and uncalled for for the most part. But *after* the war, I think getting out quickly is completely irresponsible. I agree with the “You broke it, you bought it” contingient, and think that now that we are there, we signed ourselves up for a multi-decade commitment, and we better as hell live up to it and do our best. Leaving now will only make things worse, not better.

    But anyway, these quizes are only a guide, and to give something to think about and to focus ones thoughts. As we get closer and closer to actual elections, I’ll pay more and more attention to the things that my “President*” wishlist digs up on my Tivo. Right now I’m watching a 60 Minutes II piece on General Clark from a couple weeks ago, and there is at least one debate ont heir waiting for me to watch it. We shall see.

    Anyway, everybody should take the quiz at least once a month I say. :-)

    Published!

    Well… sort of. While I was visiting my mother for Thanksgiving she told me that the next edition of her church’smember directory would have a picture that I took as the cover of the book. Yes, it is only a local church directory, and the picture is not perfect, but I still think it is pretty cool.

    My Picture: Church Bell

    My Mom’s Church