This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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May 2017 Update: A look at Trump favorability vs job approval

Back in March I took a look comparing Trump’s favorability rating (% saying they have a favorable opinion minus % saying they have an unfavorable opinion) to his net job approval (% approving of his job performance minus % disapproving of his job performance). This was interesting because these two ways of measuring Trump’s popularity were not really moving together.

I’ve updated those charts through today. (Once again using pollster.com data for the smoothed trends.) Here is what we have:

Net job approval is much more volatile than favorability rating. This makes sense. People are basically answering, “How do I think Trump is doing RIGHT NOW?” vs “How do I like Trump overall?”. Both have been trending down… down meaning worse for Trump… with the job approval swings looking much more impressive than the slow gradual decline for favorability.

I actually think the favorability number is the more critical one to look at though. Job approval going down just means Trump had a bad week or two. It can easily bounce back if the next week goes better. Favorability going down though probably means people who voted for Trump are actually losing faith in him. They are not just saying he didn’t do great recently, they are saying they no longer like him. Big difference. And that has been slowly heading down since the beginning of February, and seems to have accelerated since the second half of April.

Favorability swings can be reversed too of course, it just seems harder to move than job approval. Having said that, these charts are extended back before the election for a reason. Note the huge swing upward in Trump’s favorability that started a couple weeks before the election and peaked in December. That was a big move in Trump’s direction. A big part of that was just an election bump and people “giving him a chance”, or giving him a boost simply for being President Elect. But it just shows that the right events can move things a lot pretty quickly.

And it shows that Trump has still not come anywhere close to losing all of the additional people who started thinking more favorably about him during that time period. Some of them, sure, but he is still looking a lot better now than he was right before the election. To all the folks hoping for Congressional Republicans to turn on Trump, I’m thinking you have to see the blue line above break the October low before you start seeing any of that sort of thing happen.

But we shall see. :-)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Facepalms and Headdesks

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, guest host Jenn joins Sam to talk about the latest developments in the Trump/Russia saga, as well as Trump’s big overseas trip. Those are the big topics, and there is lots to talk about there, but they also touch on Jenn’s love of the Bay Area, healthcare for women, the Manchester attack, ransomware, electronics on planes, and something Sam’s wife is doing. Oh, and another WotD update too.

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2017-05-27
Length this week – 1:36:06

  • (0:00:13-0:10:22) But First
    • Ivan Out
    • Agenda
    • The Bay Area
    • WotD Update
    • Brandy running
  • (0:11:00-0:51:04) Trump/Russia
    • Note taking apps
    • Just Stupidity?
    • Lack of Trust
    • More on Kushner
    • Trump fatigue
    • Nixon comparison
    • Republicans Afraid?
    • Draining the swamp
    • Follow the money
    • Collusion? Or just alignment?
    • Other Russia stuff
  • (0:52:24-1:08:02) Trump Trip
    • Success?
    • Trump and Melania
    • The non-stories
    • Body Language
    • Language Deterioration
    • Saudi Policy
    • NATO Policy
  • (1:09:10-1:35:45) Lightning Round
    • Hotel Lounge
    • Healthcare for Women
    • Search for new FBI Director
    • Manchester
    • Ransomware attack
    • Electronics on planes

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-26 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-25 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-24 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-23 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-22 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-21 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2017-05-20 (UTC)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The Russia Trump Hour

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about… well… could it be anything else? Almost the whole show is on the many Trump-Russia developments from the last week. Developments in the Mike Flynn story. Trump talking about tapping conversations. Trump meets with Russians and says things that get him in trouble. Reports on Trump-Comey conversations. The Special Counsel. The continuing investigation. Talk of Impeachment and the 25th amendment. Basically all Trump this week. Except for a Wiki of the Day update.

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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 1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
 View Podcast in iTunes
 View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook
patreon-30x30 Support us on Patreon

Show Details:

Recorded 2017-05-20
Length this week – 1:57:21

  • (0:00:54-0:14:08) But First
    • All Trump
    • Things not covered
    • Negative news tone
    • Wiki of the Day update
    • Alex interlude
  • (0:14:56-0:45:31) Trump-Russia Part 1
    • Ignored warnings about Flynn
    • Trump tapes?
    • Trump meeting with Russians
    • Trump is a moron
    • Fox effect
  • (0:46:36-1:25:09) Trump-Russia Part 2
    • Taking notes at meetings
    • Trump/Comey meetings
    • Coverup vs Crime
    • Special Council
    • Follow the money
    • McCarthy/Ryan on Trump/Russia
    • Kushner is a person of interest
    • Trump still likes Flynn
    • Russians bragging about Flynn
    • Who Trump people trust
  • (1:25:50-1:57:01) Removal Options
    • No President Hatch
    • Impeachment Route
    • 25th Amendment Route
    • What next?

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.