This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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August 2006
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Fizzle

Ernesto has fizzled. We’re down to about a 25% chance of tropical storm froce winds… and that was as of the 13 UTC update… over six hours ago. Gathering from reports on the radio and one email we got from someone in the area, it is likely to be far lower than that at this point.

So hopefully we’re all good. Just a normal summer thunderstorm.

All Tropics, All the Time

I promise I’ll get back to other things soon enough.

Here is the latest NHC update of the odds graph though:

No significant chance of hurricane force winds. About a 70% shot at tropical storm force winds though. The only thing we are really worried about with those sorts of winds is the pool screen if a wayward branch gets thrown into it. When we got tropical storm force winds out of Wilma a big branch got thrown into our pool. If the screen had been up then, it would have gotten torn.

This looks like it will probably be a non-event though, which is good.

By comparison, Miami is just about at a 90% chance of TS winds. The South Carolina coast is at about 45%. And there is still about a 5% chance of hurricane force winds in SC.

Helpful Voicemail

Got a voicemail this morning on my cell from the insurance company I have home insurance from saying basically “We know you are about to get hit by Ernesto, so here are all the ways to get in touch with us to make a claim as soon as it goes by.”

Thanks!

(Actually of course, if there is an issue, this will be helpful, as I frankly wouldn’t even remember which insurance company we had without digging through papers trying to find it.)

Anyway, as of the updates at 13 UTC this morning (6 hours ago) we are back to a negligible (less than 5%) chance of hurricane force winds, but the chance of tropical storm force winds has gone up slightly to about 65%.

Hopefully we’ll get some rain and wind but no actual damage. Guess we’ll know in about 24 to 30 hours. Well, at least whatever is going to happen will have happened. We aren’t actually there, so who knows how long it will be until we can get someone to go by and tell us what happened.

Of Course

Of course they updated the charts I like better seconds after I made that last post. Our new odds…

Between 5% and 10% chance of hurricane force winds. Down from before.

And just over a 60% chance of tropical storm force winds.

Odds in Miami and the SC coast are about the same (between 5% and 10%) for hurricane force winds. For tropical storm force winds Miami is more like 78% chance and SC just over 40%.

Anyway, looks like the odds are in favor of our house getting some really nasty weather, but not devastating destruction type weather. Here’s hoping “really nasty” turns out to be more like nice fluffy bunnies and not anything we end up having to care about at all.

Getting Better

image

An improvement. The line is still pretty much directly over our house, but it is now predicted to only be a tropical storm by that time. The last “odds view” published by the NHC is about 8 hours old now, but says we have about a 10% chance of hurricane force winds and about a 60% chance of tropical storm force winds. I’m eagerly waiting for the next update of that view, cause I think it means a lot more.

Not to say that even tropical storm force winds are desireable. We really don’t need even minor damage to the house right now given our distance and that we potentially have an almost confirmed deal on the house right now…

I note however that it is supposed to be a hurricane again by the time it gets to South Carolina. Isn’t that where Rebecca is on vacation?

Insert Four Letter Expletive of Choice

image

I prefer the probability view, but it gets updated less frequently. The 9 UTC NHC Cone update just happened though (a little early), and we’re just to the right of the center line. Now, it will have been traveling over land for awhile by then, but it is still an H, not an S, and even a minimal H is not to be sneezed at.

Now, reading the predictions, there is a good chance that it will weaken significantly over Cuba and may end up not being much of anything by the time it gets to Florida… or it may strengthen significantly and actually be a real threat.

Crossing our fingers that either Cuba gives this storm a knockout blow while it goes over and it never gets back up to Hurricane strength, or the track keeps moving east and it ends up missing Florida entirely.

Of course, with the current track my friend Ivan in the Miami area is right on the target line too. So good luck to Ivan too!

Ivan, what’s the report from Miami? Does anybody care about this one at all, or does everybody assume it will be a non-event?

More Worried Now

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That’s the hurricane bubble this time, not the tropical storm bubble.

We’re now at between 5% and 10% chance of hurricane force winds at our old house, and up to about a 35% chance of tropical storm force winds. And of course, we are all the way across the country, and can’t do crap to protect it. There is an offer in on the house, but not all the T’s are crossed.

Here’s hoping Ernesto goes a bit further to the west!!

Ernesto’s Bubble

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We’re on the very edge of the probability bubble. About a 6% chance that our (as yet still not officially sold) house in Florida will get tropical storm force winds within the next five days. It is far more likely to go much further west though. But we’ll be watching it.

AntiTerror

I was going to say something about Pluto, but no longer am inspired. So instead, here is another good article recommending a rational response to terrorist threats. Read it all.

What the Terrorists Want
(Bruce Schneier, Schneier on Security)

The point of terrorism is to cause terror, sometimes to further a political goal and sometimes out of sheer hatred. The people terrorists kill are not the targets; they are collateral damage. And blowing up planes, trains, markets or buses is not the goal; those are just tactics. The real targets of terrorism are the rest of us: the billions of us who are not killed but are terrorized because of the killing. The real point of terrorism is not the act itself, but our reaction to the act.

(via Boing Boing)

Radio Frump

The file is not Mac friendly it seems, so I can’t listen to it. But Bob Frump was on the radio Wednesday talking about his new book.

The World: August 23, 2006

Host Marco Werman speaks with author Robert Frump, who’s recent book explores the growing death toll among refugees from Mozambique entering South Africa. The cause of those deaths lions in South Africa’s Kruger National Park.

Direct link to the audio I can’t listen to is here.

Bob has even more at the book’s website.