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@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-07-30 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-07-30 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-07-30 (UTC)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The Big DNC Show

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan of course spend most of the show on the Democratic National Convention, with commentary on all the major speeches, and the inevitable comparisons to the RNC the week before. In addition to the DNC itself, they do cover this week’s terrorist attacks in Europe, the DNC email hack, where polling stands today, and Trump’s invitation to Russian hackers. Oh, and for some reason pineapples make an appearance.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-07-29

Length this week – 2:01:56

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:32-0:08:45) Starting Up
    • Tired Ivan
    • Ivan’s bad flight
    • Pineapple
    • Agenda
  • (0:09:23-0:48:16) Everything Else
    • Terrorist Attacks
    • Trump Convention Bounce?
    • DNC Emails
    • Trump’s Russian Invite
  • (0:49:24-1:17:59) Democratic National Convention Part 1
    • Convention Comparison
    • Sanders Holdouts
    • Booker for President?
    • Michelle Obama Speech
    • Elizabeth Warren Speech
    • Bernie Sanders Speech
  • (1:18:38-1:39:54) Democratic National Convention Part 2
    • Roll Call Vote
    • Dean Scream 2
    • Bill Clinton Speech
    • Joe Biden Speech
    • Barack Obama Speech
  • (1:41:13-2:01:36) Democratic National Convention Part 3
    • Chelsea Clinton Speech
    • Hillary Clinton Speech
    • Convention Comparison Part 2

Note: Timestamps are accurate, but many audio players are not very precise on the timestamps they show, especially when scanning forwards and backwards, so depending on your player, if you scan to a specific time, you may not get exactly what is shown above and may have to scan back or forward a bit to get what is expected.

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-07-29 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-07-29 (UTC)

  • 08:00:19 Poll Added: Suffolk in PA from 2016-07-25 to 2016-07-27 – Clinton 50% to Trump 41.40% https://t.co/Df5iiPHJKM
  • 08:02:48 Poll Added: Suffolk w/4P in PA from 2016-07-25 to 2016-07-27 – Clinton 45.80% to Trump 37.20% https://t.co/HDqhnmrOAq
  • 08:02:54 Full 4P results logged: Suffolk w/4P in PA from 2016-07-25 to 2016-07-27 – Clinton 45.80% to Trump 37.20% to Johnson 5.00% to Stein 2.60%
  • 08:09:27 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 2 in PA -> Clinton by 2.3 in NC https://t.co/RkUrFluOqy
  • 08:36:52 Poll Added: PPIC w/4P in CA from 2016-07-10 to 2016-07-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 30% https://t.co/TggGLXrMeZ
  • 08:36:57 Full 4P results logged: PPIC w/4P in CA from 2016-07-10 to 2016-07-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 30% to Johnson 7% to Stein 6%
  • 08:43:15 Poll Added: Clout w/4P in OR from 2016-07-09 to 2016-07-13 – Clinton 43.1% to Trump 39.7% https://t.co/olr5uZnHZV
  • 08:43:20 Full 4P results logged: Clout w/4P in OR from 2016-07-09 to 2016-07-13 – Clinton 43.1% to Trump 39.7% to Johnson 6.0% to Stein 2.9%
  • 08:46:41 Poll Added: PublicMind w/3P in DE from 2016-07-20 to 2016-07-24 – Clinton 42% to Trump 32% https://t.co/l0EfLu0jU7
  • 08:46:46 Full 3P results logged: PublicMind w/3P in DE from 2016-07-20 to 2016-07-24 – Clinton 42% to Trump 32% to Johnson 9%
  • 08:51:09 Poll Added: VPR w/3P in VT from 2016-07-11 to 2016-07-23 – Clinton 39% to Trump 17% https://t.co/ErpUh22ip2
  • 08:51:14 Full 3P results logged: VPR w/3P in VT from 2016-07-11 to 2016-07-23 – Clinton 39% to Trump 17% to Johnson 5%
  • 09:04:14 Poll Added: Tarrance in IN from 2016-07-20 to 2016-07-21 – Clinton 36% to Trump 50% https://t.co/js1lG1RfrQ
  • 09:45:37 That’s all for today. New polls in PA/CA/OR/DE/VT/IN. Notable change due to PA so @ElectionGraphs post later.
  • 10:27:16 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 10:27:09 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Tipping point slips back toward Clinton https://t.co/rn7rU8jcsD

@abulsme tweets from 2016-07-29 (UTC)

Electoral College: Tipping point slips back toward Clinton

States with new poll data since the last updatePennsylvania, California, Oregon, Delaware, Vermont, Indiana

Results from a Suffolk poll in Pennsylvania taken during the first three days of the Democratic National Convention move that state’s average toward Clinton.

chart-218

The average moves from a 2.0% lead to a 4.4% lead. This is not an insubstantial jump toward Clinton, but either way we classify the state as “Weak Clinton”. Pennsylvania was the tipping point state though, so the tipping point moves too…

chart-219

The tipping point moves from Clinton in Pennsylvania by 2.0% to Clinton in North Carolina by 2.3%.

This is a pretty small change in the grand scheme of things. Compare to the huge move of the tipping point in Trump’s direction from mid-June to mid-July.

Is the new jag downward the start of a new larger move back toward Clinton? Too soon to say. Stay tuned.

102.6 days until polls start to close…

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-07-28 (UTC)

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-07-27 (UTC)