This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

Categories

Calendar

August 2008
S M T W T F S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  

Bigger View Of Gustav

Incoming Gustav

As of the 12 UTC update (about 6 hours ago, and the 18 UTC update is due out soon, but isn’t there yet) looks like odds of hurricane force winds in New Orleans are up to about 30%. Odds of tropical storm force winds are now at about 90%.

So yeah, New Orleans will almost certainly be effected at this point. The main question now is just “How badly?”.

Flying Bumber People

Bumbering

Today’s activity is Bumbershoot. We are heading out the door in a few minutes. I think Brandy and Amy are planning to go for all three days of it. I have limited tolerance for such events, but I agreed to go today. I plan to follow them around and grimace a lot. And I’ll play with my iPhone. :-)

Cat 4

Hurricane Gustav is now a Cat 4. As of the 12 UTC update, looks like there is a 20% chance of hurricane force winds in New Orleans. (About a 70% chance of tropical storm force winds.) I guess that is high enough already that they are starting evacuations. Given what happened three years ago, I can’t blame them.

Having said that, there is a non-trivial chance of hurricane force winds for not only New Orleans, but the entire coastlines of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama as well as parts of the Texas and Florida coasts. Not to mention a decent ways inland in Louisiana. In terms of tropical storm force winds… looking at Hannah as well, the ENTIRE gulf coast of the US is at risk in the next five days, as well as the east coast of Florida as well. (And of course Cuba, parts of Mexico, and a large number of other Caribbean Islands.)

But.. Cat 4 (although expected to weaken before landfall), with a 20% chance of hitting New Orleans… and pretty much a 100% chance of hitting somewhere on the gulf coast… just as the Republican Convention starts.

This will be quite a week.

Because I Could No Longer Wait

Posted from my new iPhone

16GB. White.

Ivan Jamaica Update

Once again, an update from Ivan, this time via email:

last night was a doozy internet and tv went down at 630am I am writing from my handheld as cell service is working. the winds on the beach gusted to under 100 mph. you could hear the wind and the building shook a little. this is not a weak building its reinforced concrete. by 8am the winds dided down and we haven getting steady rain. I have spoken with some of the locals and so far no major damage reported.

NHC Updates as of 12 UTC (6 hours ago):

Western Jamaica: 90% to 100% chance of tropical storm force winds, 0% chance of hurricane force winds.

New Orleans: 55% chance of tropical storm force winds, 15% chance of hurricane force winds

Initial Palin Thoughts

I have to head out in just a few minutes. But I thought I’d post some initial thoughts. Palin’s name had floated around occasionally, but it was not one of the names brought up time after time as the most likely choices. I honestly don’t know all that much about her other than the summary points. Like everyone else, I’ll be learning a lot more about her over the next week, and my opinions may change as that happens.

In the mean time though, my initial thought is that this is a gutsy move by McCain. It might even be a brilliant choice. Or it could backfire completely.

Pro: By picking a young woman, McCain breaks the mold… this isn’t a stodgy old white man. This does push back on the “historic” bits of Obama’s candidacy.

Con: It makes it much harder to make the experience argument against Obama.

Pro: This will make the conservative base very happy, from initial reports, she is very conservative.

Con: This may make moderates who liked McCain because he was moderate think twice.

Pro: This may push some Hillary dead enders over the line to McCain.

Dunno. We’ll she how this plays out.

But I think it does make this a very different game than if McCain had picked one of the “safe” choices.

The next two months should be quite fun.

McCain-Palin

CNBC Says it is Palin:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin Is McCain’s VP Pick: Source
(John Harwood, CNBC, 29 Aug 2008)

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a self-styled “hockey mom” who has only been governor for a little over a year, is GOP Presidential candidate John McCain’s choice for Vice President, CNBC has learned.

According to a Republican strategist, Palin is the nominee, though McCain’s campaign has not comfirmed this.

(via reader Kelly M., thanks Kelly!)

No other news outlets seem to be confirming yet. Nothing on regular MSNBC, CNN or Fox.

Strike that. Fox is saying Palin now too.

I imagine the rest will confirm shortly.

Best Rumors: Palin

The best rumors this morning are about Sarah Palin, based primarily on a charter flight from Anchorage to Dayton last night. But nobody is willing to go out on a limb and say she is it for sure.

I hope they hurry up and leak and confirm. I need to go to work before the official event.

(Although I’ll have a few breaks when I’ll be able to do quick news checks.)