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@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-31 (UTC)

  • Reading – Yes, Romney's won, and it's okay to say so (Jonathan Bernstein) http://t.co/dGxCGOdf #
  • RT @daringfireball: Jeff Bezos Discovers Apollo 11 Rockets at Bottom of Atlantic Ocean: http://t.co/0RBTmLoD #
  • RT @pourmecoffee: Mega Millions jackpot at record high. Winner gets $540 million and a sudden desire to vote for Mitt Romney. #
  • I just swallowed a fly. Flew right in and down my throat while I was talking. :-( Very unpleasant even after several minutes. Urgh! :-( #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: I'm pretty sure it's about time to start calling Romney the presumptive nominee, and not the front-runner. #
  • Reading – Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Romney (Darryl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/UOPwOApW #
  • Reading – Settlement over e-Book Pricing to Undo Apple's Agency Model for Pricing? (Eric Slivka) http://t.co/Nufa5tbb #
  • Definitely should have left earlier. Had to park many blocks away. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • In the building. Got hand stamped. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • I now have my delegate badge. Woo! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • It's getting hot in here. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Thought I had a Ron Paul sticker. Don't actually. Using a brochure stuck in my shirt pocket instead. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Gavel in five minutes. Playing video of Ray Charles version of America the Beautiful. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Gavel! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Politically colored prayer! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Making the alternates and guests move away from the main floor. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Introducing local Republican candidates. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Pledge of Allegiance. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • National anthem. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Second verse? Nobody ever does that! Little kid yelled out "THE END!" after the first one! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • God Bless America now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Actually a decent number of people here who are not old white men. Maybe 40% women. Majority under 50! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 1% non-white if they are lucky though. Maybe not even. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Reagan Dunn, candidate for State Attorney General (I think) speaking now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Yup. AG. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Rob McKenna, candidate for Governor, now up. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Oddly, the big signs around the edges are for Hadian for Governor. Only little signs for McKenna. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Everybody mentioning Obamacare at SCOTUS and how badly that went for Obama this week. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Unsurprisingly, all the speakers are advocating for Republicans to be elected to every office and take majorities. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Kim Wyman, candidate for Secretary of State. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • She is for fair elections! Woo? #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Hadian, also a Republican candidate for Governor. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • He is an Iranian immigrant. Big applause for saying got citizenship legally & conversion from Islam 2 Christianity. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Cell data no longer working. Tweeting by text. Or trying to. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Crowd was much more excited for Hadian than McKenna. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Somebody for Lt Gov now. Finkbeyer or something like that. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Another AG candidate. Stephen Pigeon. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Hadian was much more red blood conservative. So is Pigeon. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Talking about Obama being a Socialist and such. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Ask a real Socialist about that and they will laugh. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Daniel Miller. Running for 2nd congressional district. Ron Paul guy. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Saying govt tanking economy on purpose. :-/ #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Doesn't have website yet. Also :-/ #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Larry Stickney now. Campaign manager for John Costner for congress. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Says Obama is worst president in history. Big applause. I can think of worse. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Koster. Not Costner. Oops. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Credential committee ready. Woo! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 1st – 233 del. 10th – 78. 21st – 185. 32,46. 38,176. 39,206. 44,317. Total 1241. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Credentials report accepted. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Listing promoted alternates now. "Ooo… This is going to take awhile.". #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 3G back! For now… #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Listing of promoted alternates done! More candidates while credentials updated. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Bob Somebody running for something. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Bob didnt repeat his name or I would have made sure to get it. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Richard Saunders running for WA Supreme Court. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 50% batt now. Only 2 hours in out of long day. But I haven't used my @mophie yet! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • I continue to believe judgeships should not be elected offices. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Didn't catch who is talking now. Withdrew from a congressional race to support Koster instead. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Ah. James Watkins. Now running for State Auditor. Another position that shouldn't be elected. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 3G gone again. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Dan Matthews. Running against Rick Larson. Congress. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Former Air Force guy and 747 pilot. Talking a lot about defense, Boeing, etc. Some property rights stuff too. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Looking for some missing promoted alternates. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Art Koday (sp?) running for Senate. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 2G data working this time. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Talking anti-abortion stuff. Now gun stuff. Now anti-UN. Now anti-Obamacare. Wants cheap gas and low taxes. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Waiting for credentials again. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now John Shoop. Wearing cowboy hat. Running for congress. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now Barb Baily. For state Senate. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Alternates all promoted. All delegates seated. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now electing permanent chair for convention. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Did a voice vote. First guy declared winner before vote on others. People demanding all candidates get voted on. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Also demanding each candidate get to speak before vote and list of candidates on big screen. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • This part is usually pro forma. Smells if delaying tactic. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Second candidate is Ron Paul person. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Two of the nominated candidates have declined. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Three candidates for chair left. All gave speeches. Standing vote now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Request to clear floor of non delegates before vote. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 3 cand are the expected guy, the Ron Paul supporter, and some other guy who just said he was new and would be fair. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now just raising hands with badges since some people can't stand. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • They are counting the raised hands for the first candidate by hand. Three counters. This will take forever. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Crowd getting rowdy because they have to keep their hands up. First guy clearly will win, but count demanded. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Arms still up for the first of the three candidates. Lower than they were though. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • They are playing the Jeopardy song. Really. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Wonder if they paid the royalties on that. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Need 662 for a majority if I heard right. So maybe they will only count the first guy. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • That should be 622. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Hands were up for 15 minutes. 1st counts from counters did not match. Not even close. Off by hundreds. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now voters for 1st candidate are counting off one by one. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Up to 100 for 1st guy. (Kellett) #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Someone counted wrong. People mad. But was corrected. 200 now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 300. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • They are on the other side of the room now, so I can't hear count any more. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Realized I did not bring a pen. Would suck if they don't have pens for the voting later. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 500. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 600. Will they stop when they get to 622? #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 622. chair wants to go to 640 to protect against disputes. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 640. Kellett declared permanent chair. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Will validate total number of delegates before officially switching chairs. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 1241 still official number of delegates. Chair officially switched. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Actual business of convention now starting. Three and a half hours after we started. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • New chair making point he does not currently endorse any of the four presidential candidates. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now rules committee report. Will we have another long count to approve rules? #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Nope. Ayes have it. Almost unanimous. But someone asking about amendments. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Proposal to change rules to change way nominations are closed. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Rule proposal allowed easier closing of nominations. Would result in fewer candidates for next level. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Hit 20% batt. Turned on @mophie. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Request to post text of amendment on screen so we can see it before voting. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • They say that is not possible. Really? Reading it again instead. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Lots of people speaking for and against amendment. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 571 delegates in my LD (44). It will take forever once we get to the actual caucus. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Question called. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Presubmitted candidates already will require 2-3 hours for the 30 second speeches, even without new nominees. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Cloture called. Actual vote too close to call on voice vote. Asking people to stand again. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • BTW I submitted my form to be a delegate to next level, but 90 minutes late so probably won't be on printed ballot. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Standing vote declared to not have 2/3 majority for amendment. Amendment fails. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • New amendment to let each caucus decide how long delegates have to speak instead of fixed 30s. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Somebody left their Lexus outside with the engine running. All morning. Still there apparently. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now speeches for and against amendment. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • This question now called. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • This amendment also fails. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now motion to approve full rules. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • LDs can't change their own rules. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Rules adopted. We are now four hours in. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Reviewing requirements for the people who get elected. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Giving instructions on where to go when we split up by LD. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • People started to leave. He said wait, not done, sit down. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Main meeting reconvene at 3. Earlier if LDs finish sooner. (Yeah right!). #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Main merging adjourned. Everybody is supposed to grab their lunches then go to the rooms for their LDs. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Assuming there will also be a run on the bathrooms. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Grabbed my box lunch. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • I have gotten my sheet of paper with the slate of candidates recommended by the Paul campaign. My name is on it. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • I have pens in the car. Just forgot to grab. Have a feeling I will need a pen. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • LD 44 caucus called to order. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Two delegates left. Determining if there are alternates. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Nominations for permanent chair. Three. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • First guy wins easily. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • No long counting. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • I am on the written ballot despite missing the deadline by 90 minutes. Woo! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Really wanting a pen now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • The chair is explaining the election and elimination procedures. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 316 dels. Need 159 votes to be elected. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Someone pointing out duplicate names on ballot. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Borrowed a pen. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Asking everyone to cross out duplicates after 1 by 1 making sure don't actually have people with same name. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • They also have extra pens up front. Have to be black for balloting. My borrowed pen is blue. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • @okwichu That's what the guy said… #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Doing nominations from floor now. Have been for a bit. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • @okwichu they said black works most reliably. Use black "as much as possible". #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • After all nominations 156 people on ballot. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 315 delegates here after two people left with no alternates. 158 votes to go to state. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • 4 people withdrew from ballot. Down to 152 candidates. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Make that 5. 151 now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • If you don't want to speak you don't have to. Maybe I won't. :-) #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Speeches starting. This should take about an hour. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • I did speak. Just name number and who I support. And a comment about how long this is. :-) #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Speeches of printed ballot done. Now the people nominated today. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Speeches done!!!!! #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • First round voting now. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Am using my blue pen but trying to be dark. Hope it works. Voting Open Convention Slate on first ballot. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Turned ballot in. Blue pen will probably screw everything. Next time bring pens. Black pens. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • At RP session last week they mentioned a lot of the Mormon men may leave at 4:30 for an important church meeting. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • If all the Romney people plus a few more vote their recommended "Unity Slate" we will be done after one ballot. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • If people ignore slates and just vote for people they liked, we will be here a lot longer for runoffs. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • @okwichu How did the blue/black pen thing work out in #ld41 Any ballots unreadable? #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Now waiting for the first ballot to get counted by machine. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Somebody's birthday. So we are going to sing. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Mike Baumgarder. Running for US Senate. Talking to us while we wait for state. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Baumgartner. Oops. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Spoiler: This won't actually be done at 5. (0 UTC) #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Potty Break. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Paul guy just stopped to tell me they removed someone from the slate. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • It is because in his speech he said he was now for Romney. #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #
  • Time to catch it would have been BEFORE first vote. :-/ #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44 #

Pic: Seated for LD Caucus

20120331-204208.jpg

Pic: Seated in the Gym #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44

20120331-154919.jpg

Live Tweeting the Snohomish County Republican Convention #wacaucus #snocorc #ld44

As I did with the Precinct Caucuses on March 3rd, I’ll be attempting to Live Tweet the Snohomish County Republican Convention today.

Follow me @Abulsme.

For those who remember my tweets on March 3rd only three people showed up for my precinct and given there were three delegate slots available to the county convention, all three of us became delegates to the next level.  Although it is non-binding, I had expressed my preference for Ron Paul.  (The other two supported Santorum.) Last weekend I attended an orientation meeting for the Ron Paul delegates.  For those interested, I talked a little about that meeting on the last episode of Curmudgeon’s Corner.

I should have left home already to get all settled at the convention before the crowds arrive.  But a few notes before I go…

According to the orientation I had last week, in my legislative district, the 44th, almost half of the delegates are Romney supporters, about 25% are Ron Paul Supporters, 15% or so did not have a stated preference, and Santorum and Paul split the rest.  There are a little over 260 delegates expected for our LD (I forget the exact number).  For anybody to get elected as a delegate to the next level they need more than 50% of the vote of all of the delegates in the LD.  This means that if every body shows up and all the Romney folks just vote for each other (and are disciplined and vote for the SAME Romney people), and just a small number of the uncommitted delegates also vote for Romney’s folks, then Romney will end up with 100% of the delegates to the next level, even though he got just under 50% of the delegates from the first round.

Meanwhile, if all the Ron Paul folks (for instance) just vote for each other, then none of them gets over 50% of the total vote, and they get no delegates to the next level despite the 25% showing in the first round.

Interesting how these things work.

For the non-Romney campaigns, the hope is that basically:

  1. A bunch of the Romney delegates don’t bother showing up (and disproportionately so compared to their own delegates)
  2. Discipline among the Romney delegates to vote for a consistent slate is low, allowing others to sneak in
  3. The three non-Romney’s delegates will vote for each other to stop Romney, even though they don’t necessarily like each other.

It will be fun.  Oh, and we’ll get to hear speeches from a ton of local Republican politicians.  Woo!

Oh, and for the record once again, I am supporting Ron Paul in the Republican caucus process because I think he is the best of the four Republicans currently running.  I completely reserve judgement on who I will support in the fall.  I’ll think about that once it is completely clear who all the people are on the ballot (not just the Republican and Democrat, which is pretty clear at this point absent some sort of seismic event).

OK.  Off I go…

@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-30 (UTC)

  • Reading – Who To Blame If Obamacare Goes Down? Um, Obama? (Robert Wright) http://t.co/HFCLKQQ9 #
  • Reading – Six-Legged Giant Finds Secret Hideaway, Hides For 80 Years (Robert Krulwich) http://t.co/EUbixjls #
  • Reading – Does the Color Pink Exist? Scientists Aren't Sure (Melissa Locker) http://t.co/WF9Umul0 #
  • @ppppolls Thanks for including the CD split in the NE poll! #
  • Reading – Mega Millions frenzy: Can you ever beat the lottery's long odds? (Brad Plumer) http://t.co/XRyqtpfo #

Electoral College: Slight Nebraska Correction

Map and chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.  Both assume Obama vs Romney with no third party strong enough to win states.  Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate has than is needed to tie under several different scenarios.  Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

So my update today included a new PPP poll in Nebraska.  This poll included a breakdown by congressional district, which is useful because Nebraska is one of two states (the other is Maine) which currently have the potential of splitting their electoral college vote.  Both states do this with 2 electoral votes going to the statewide winner, then 1 electoral vote for the winner of each congressional district.  Thanks PPP for actually doing the CD split!!

Anyway, as I was adding the new data points for Nebraska at large and each of the three congressional districts, I noticed the previous data for the 1st and 2nd congressional districts included some errors.  (Specifically the 2008 Republican and Democratic results were reversed…  I use the 2004 and 2008 elections to seed the numbers for states that have had less than five actual Obama vs Romney polls.)  The end result of this was that the 1st district had been classified as Weak Romney when it should have been Strong Romney, and the 2nd district was classified as Strong Romney when it should have been Weak Romney.  I corrected this and the new poll results didn’t change the classifications again.

The net result of this is just that on the map I had the wrong one of the three boxes in Nebraska light red.  It should have been the 2nd box instead of the 1st.  This has now been corrected.  Since both districts are one electoral vote and the changes balanced each other, the lines on the graph do not change at all.

The summary remains:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 278 260
Current Status 210 328
Obama Best Case 170 368

Note 2012 May 23 10:43 UTC:  Due to an error in my spreadsheet, a change in status for Wisconsin from Weak Obama to Strong Obama that should have been noted on this update on March 30th, was prematurely made on March 2nd.  The corrected time series chart can be seen starting with the May 23rd update. Thanks to Darryl at HorsesAss for finding the mistake.

Note 2012 Jun 16 21:22 UTC:  Actually, with more information, the Wisconsin transition should have happened on March 31st.  See the correction on the June 19th update.

What’s Up With This @omgpop ?

20120330-030853.jpg

Something is a little off in the world of Draw Something this last round…

@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-29 (UTC)

  • RT @scalzi: I'm always surprised when I get an actual phone call on my cell phone. It's like, "Oh, RIGHT. It does that TOO." #
  • Reading – Fossil Foot Indicates New Prehuman Species (John Noble Wilford) http://t.co/e1QGP51u #

@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-28 (UTC)

@abulsme Updates from 2012-03-27 (UTC)