This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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@abulsme tweets from 2015-12-16 (UTC)

  • 00:01:25 Today was my follow up broken foot appointment. Healing slowly. Can wear normal shoe now, start trying to put weight on foot. No running.
  • 00:02:20 So I am doing that. Limping. Moving slow. But no longer have to heel walk. So… slow but sure improvement. Which is good I guess.
  • 00:02:40 Just got home. Just turned on the undercard debate. Did I make a big mistake? :-)
  • 00:30:19 Graham is somewhat entertaining here, but nobody on this undercard debate matters. Why are we doing this?
  • 00:36:54 Lindsay Graham with the Princess Bride references. What? Sigh.
  • 01:33:37 Was multitasking during undercard debate, but guess I’ll pay more attention to main event… at least until Alex gets home from Grandma’s. :-)
  • 01:36:42 There are too many people in the main debate. Should just be Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson. MAYBE Bush if folks are feeling extra generous.
  • 01:38:36 Retweeted @ScottNY71 01:38:18 @abulsme Did you do a lot of running before? in reply to abulsme
  • 01:38:48 .@ScottNY71 Not if I could help it. :-) in reply to ScottNY71
  • 01:39:29 .@ScottNY71 Also not allowed to jump. Didn’t do a lot of that either. But more than running probably. :-) in reply to ScottNY71
  • 01:39:39 Retweeted @ScottNY71 01:39:26 @abulsme Glad you're feeling better at least. in reply to abulsme
  • 01:39:48 .@ScottNY71 Thanks! :-) in reply to ScottNY71
  • 01:41:22 The part from the “now time for the debate” until the first question is approximately five hours.
  • 01:41:44 Retweeted @wilw 01:41:28 Trump is not some kind of unexpected outlier. He is the mainstream of the GOP base, and the result of decades of dog whistles from the party
  • 01:48:34 Oh, they get to introduce themselves again. Yawn!
  • 01:49:42 Paul comes out of the gate attacking. Also immediately highlighting places he is different than pretty much everybody else. His only play.
  • 01:50:37 Retweeted @ananavarro 01:50:27 The debate rules should be based on Jeopardy. All answers should be in the form of a question.
  • 01:51:18 Retweeted @FiveThirtyEight 01:50:58 #GOPDebate https://t.co/2fvN06a6nr https://t.co/e0lEmA8YZj
  • 01:52:17 Very glad the candidates are using their intros for something other than their bios, even if it is still mostly blah.
  • 01:52:47 Retweeted @speechboy71 01:52:25 Chris Christie is now bashing Clinton and Obama for not protecting America from losing its shit over phantom threats
  • 01:55:00 Oh. Jeb is still here.
  • 01:55:47 Retweeted @drvox 01:55:33 "You’re scared. I will be your Big Daddy and make you feel safer." – all these friggin’ guys
  • 01:56:33 We know today is really about watching how Trump vs Cruz goes, right? So we can ignore the rest?
  • 01:57:54 Ooo… Carson goes for moment of Silence for San Bernardino. That was kind of odd, but OK.
  • 01:58:32 Retweeted @JohnDingell 01:43:28 Anything good on TV tonight?
  • 02:01:24 1st actual q now! About Trump’s immigration stuff… Wolf calls it isolation. Trump parries, about “security”. To the casual viewer, wins.
  • 02:01:57 Retweeted @WakeUp2Politics 02:01:44 Trump: "We're not talking about isolation: we're talking about security. We're not talking about religion: we're talking about security."
  • 02:03:08 Bush appealing to reason against Trump. Doesn’t get why Trump is winning. Trump slams him on reply. Trump wins again.
  • 02:03:47 Retweeted @LarrySabato 02:03:23 Bush: Trump is "the chaos candidate". Trump: Bush is a failed candidate.
  • 02:04:39 Retweeted @Timodc 02:04:31 Trump had no response to Jeb on the substance.
  • 02:05:07 .@Timodc He doesn’t need one. Substance irrelevant to Trump’s appeal, and to why Jeb is losing. in reply to Timodc
  • 02:05:59 Asking for Cruz to go after Trump. Will he bite? I guess no.
  • 02:07:16 Yup, almost completely declining the opportunity to go after Trump. Oblique at best. Trump won’t decline the reverse.
  • 02:08:04 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 02:07:51 Shorter Cruz: I can't say why I disagree with Trump because my entire plan is to get his supporters once he's gone. https://t.co/evpRPfX1oO
  • 02:10:31 Christie looking very severe.
  • 02:14:59 I tuned out for a few minutes. Did I miss anything that mattered? Oh, Cruz drinking water while Rubio talks. Isn’t that backwards?
  • 02:17:42 Retweeted @TheFix 02:17:31 Rand attacking Rubio on NSA and spying is a giant win for Rubio. Rand is not near the center of the party on the issues.
  • 02:19:15 Don’t agree on the substance, but Rubio coming off good in the exchanges with Cruz and Paul.
  • 02:21:51 Carson complaining about not getting time. Once again, always a losing move. Candidates, don’t do this, even if you ARE getting screwed.
  • 02:22:18 Retweeted @politicalmath 02:22:02 The problem with "trust me on surveillance" is that no one trusts the gov't on anything anymore.
  • 02:23:10 To Carson: Who was right on last debate question? Carson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening.
  • 02:23:32 Retweeted @RichLowry 02:22:56 Carson doesn't have opinion on NSA program?
  • 02:23:51 .@RichLowry I think he just wasn’t paying attention, had no idea what the last question was about, so punted. in reply to RichLowry
  • 02:24:51 Retweeted @DKThomp 02:23:28 carson: you never let me speak.
    wolf: okay. do you have an opinion about the last half hour’s foreign policy debate?
    carson: pass.
  • 02:25:18 Retweeted @owillis 02:25:09 the more i see fiorina debating the more i see why hp nearly collapsed
  • 02:27:47 “I don’t want them using OUR Internet” – Trump showing his vast technical knowledge
  • 02:29:14 Retweeted @ComfortablySmug 02:29:01 That Trump answer made no damn sense but it is Trump so…
  • 02:30:24 Retweeted @SamWangPhD 02:30:16 I hate to back up the Donald on this, but I thought most global internet traffic passed through US-based hardware.
  • 02:30:34 Retweeted @mollyesque 02:30:16 As President, I will ban Twitter.
  • 02:30:44 Retweeted @studentactivism 02:30:18 So much for Trump being decisively repudiated and marginalized by the Republican field. #GOPDebate
  • 02:30:51 Retweeted @drvox 02:30:24 Who will penetrate the internet the hardest?
  • 02:31:01 Retweeted @politicalmath 02:30:31 On encryption, Kasich has no f***ing idea what he's talking about. Everyone is dumb. I hate you all.
  • 02:32:18 Cruz avoiding the actual question here I think. Bleh.
  • 02:32:45 Retweeted @PeteDominick 02:32:29 Ted Cruz has no idea how our bombs work. It's not 1943 you fucking cartoon villain.
  • 02:32:56 Retweeted @DanielLarison 02:32:32 Cruz: "You would carpet bomb where ISIS is." Ok, so you would slaughter the people in the cities they control. Got it
  • 02:34:27 Retweeted @alexburnsNYT 02:34:14 Cruz vs. Rubio https://t.co/3YqDuW8pcI
  • 02:35:41 “We will utterly destroy them by targeting the bad guys.” – Master of nuance Ted Cruz
  • 02:36:43 Paul tries to jump in. Shut down. Sorry Rand.
  • 02:37:47 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 02:37:39 Trump repeating debunked conspiracy theories about girlfriends of 9/11 hijackers
  • 02:38:26 Trump makes faces when Bush talks. Wins the interaction no matter what Bush says.
  • 02:39:30 Trump – Bush showdown… Trump wins as usual. Shuts Bush down by talking over him and being aggressive. Bush so done.
  • 02:41:14 Retweeted @DanielLarison 02:40:53 Jeb: "You're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency, Donald." The nomination, on the other hand…
  • 02:42:35 Carson: “Death by a thousand pricks” – sounds like a description of this debate
  • 02:42:53 Retweeted @ClaraJeffery 02:42:31 "You got it" –Ben Carson, on being asked if he's ok with the deaths of tens of thousands of women and children
  • 02:52:09 I’m trying to listen to what Carson is saying, but it just isn’t working.
  • 02:53:00 Looks like Ryan just announced a budget deal right in the middle of the debate. Perfect timing. :-)
  • 02:58:04 Distracted for a few minutes by my son getting home. Did I miss anything?
  • 02:58:47 Retweeted @nprpolitics 02:58:38 Talk times 1st break:
    Cruz 7:50
    Rubio 7:41
    Trump 6:16
    Christie 5:21
    Fiorina 5:18
    Bush 5:07
    Carson 4:49
    Paul 4:41
    Kasich 4:37
    #nprdebate
  • 03:00:52 Protester interrupting Trump! Will they get beaten?
  • 03:05:01 Retweeted @7im 03:04:50 this is chaos. it makes no sense. these are presidential candidates
  • 03:06:46 Wolf trying to shut down Cruz. Failed.
  • 03:10:51 “Punch the Russians in the nose.” Really?
  • 03:12:47 Missed the last few minutes again. @imbou distracting me.
  • 03:13:18 Retweeted @imbou 03:13:08 @abulsme this crazy talk is a waste of time in reply to abulsme
  • 03:15:26 I told @imbou right now I think Trumps odds of nom at 40%, more than others, but <50%. If wins think would lose but by less than Romney did.
  • 03:16:05 Also mentioned to @imbou that I will probably change my mind by tomorrow when we record podcast, let alone next week or next month. :-)
  • 03:16:29 Retweeted @TheFix 03:16:19 Give Jeb a ton of credit for this: He is the only one going after Trump in any sustained way.
  • 03:17:23 .@TheFix Losing every one of those exchanges though. Maybe not on substance, but substance doesn’t matter here. Unfortunately. in reply to TheFix
  • 03:18:38 “Im at 42%, you are at 3%.” Trump crushes Bush again. Poor Jeb.
  • 03:18:49 Retweeted @imbou 03:17:16 @abulsme and I told Sam but I am sending him some stronger meds in reply to abulsme
  • 03:18:58 Retweeted @imbou 03:18:44 @abulsme how about a kick in the balls instead in reply to abulsme
  • 03:20:19 Retweeted @mckaycoppins 03:20:05 This is the problem with attacking Trump. Jeb's obvs right—but Trump gets off a put-down, everyone laughs, and then it looks like he won. in reply to mckaycoppins
  • 03:22:24 Retweeted @kenrudin 03:22:14 Let Trump make all the insults he wants, or be as juvenile as he wants. If that's what GOP voters want, God bless. We get what we deserve.
  • 03:23:51 Interesting thing is that Cruz/Trump fireworks have been avoided. Plus for both of them probably. For now.
  • 03:25:03 Retweeted @wilw 03:24:34 Ted Cruz has managed to emerge as the biggest asshole on this stage. That is a significant achievement, and he should be proud of himself.
  • 03:25:21 Retweeted @mmurraypolitics 03:25:13 Cruz: "We will build a wall that works — and I'll get Donald Trump to pay for it"
  • 03:26:21 We are getting some Rubio/Cruz back and forth though. The battle for who will end up going against Trump in the next round maybe.
  • 03:29:03 Retweeted @BlogsofWar 03:28:45 Is it possible for every candidate involved to drop in the polls after a debate? Just curious. #GOPDebate
  • 03:31:47 I always get confused when Carson is talking. Does he actually make sense ever?
  • 03:32:46 Retweeted @imbou 03:32:35 @abulsme no in reply to abulsme
  • 03:33:20 Retweeted @ddiamond 03:32:57 Twitter followers gained tonight

    Trump +3.8k
    Carson 3.0k
    Rubio +2.9k
    Cruz +2.3k
    Carly +1.7k
    Bush +1.2k
    Paul +.9k
    Kasich +.3k
    Christie +.2k

  • 03:34:53 Facebook questions. :-/
  • 03:39:48 Missed last several mins again. My son upset I am not done yet. My hope that other people would be paying attention to him was false hope.
  • 03:42:22 Retweeted @nprpolitics 03:42:16 Talk times @ 2nd brk
    Cruz 13:18
    Rubio 12:01
    Trump 10:30
    Paul 9:00
    Christie 8:39
    Bush 8:27
    Kasich 8:21
    Carson 7:55
    Fiorina 7:27
    #nprdebate
  • 03:44:39 Lost more minutes dealing with stuff at home. I gather once again I didn’t miss anything critical?
  • 03:46:55 I need to just leave home when trying to watch a debate or something. Too hard with a six year old who really wants Daddy attention NOW. :-)
  • 03:47:16 Mommy just got home though. Yay!
  • 03:49:48 Trump had no idea about that question, did he? Oh well. Doesn’t matter.
  • 03:50:32 Retweeted @ScottNY71 03:49:00 @abulsme Can I like this tweet more than once? Please? in reply to abulsme
  • 03:50:52 Ah, the maniac question. Defused?
  • 03:51:22 Retweeted @Neil_Irwin 03:51:13 OK, so Trump and Cruz are buddies again. Yay?
  • 03:52:35 Retweeted @jonfavs 03:50:59 I agree with Trump that our biggest threat is a manic getting his hands on nuclear weapons,which is why I don't think he should be President
  • 03:53:58 This debate is once again too long. I thought Trump insisted on these being no longer than two hours. What’s up?
  • 03:54:16 Trump saying no to third party run? Don’t spoil the fun!
  • 03:54:49 Probably because he is pretty sure he is going to win the nomination now.
  • 03:55:15 Retweeted @hominidviews 03:55:02 It's the new Low Energy Trump. https://t.co/PkL1NL5CZU
  • 03:56:05 Note Trump didn’t promise anything in any way that can’t change if he is treated “unfairly” in the future.
  • 03:56:27 Retweeted @LarrySabato 03:56:15 Trump says 'no independent bid'. Cheers. But what if he's "treated unfairly" as the process unfolds? Every day's a new day.
  • 03:57:13 Better Q right now is to other candidates to see if any of them would run 3P if Trump wins nom. They would all dodge question of course.
  • 03:57:37 Answers like, “Trump won’t win, so I will support the nominee.”
  • 03:58:28 Retweeted @allahpundit 03:58:20 Trump can finish this off by saying he’ll name Rubio SecDef and Cruz AG #alpha
  • 03:59:06 Closing statements? This is actually going to end?
  • 03:59:18 Retweeted @NateSilver538 03:59:09 Why is it headline news that Trump promised to not to run as an independent? He promised that months ago, wavered from it, will do so again.
  • 03:59:54 Retweeted @SanhoTree 03:59:28 I'm so sick of these movie tie ins. #TheFarceAwakens https://t.co/DuHLy7B450
  • 04:00:11 Retweeted @petersuderman 04:00:01 Trump is to the GOP primary race what the Mule was to the Foundation.
  • 04:00:48 Retweeted @drvox 04:00:34 Honestly, Paul sounds like he already knows very well that the party’s not interested in what he’s selling.
  • 04:02:06 Retweeted @JRussellMI 03:57:04 #GOPDebate speaking time, 3rd break:

    Cruz 15.7m
    Trump 13m
    Rubio 12m
    Carson/Christie 9.8m
    Bush 9.7m
    Paul 9.1m
    Fiorina 8.9m
    Kasich 8.4m

  • 04:04:00 Retweeted @libgwenchy 04:01:21 @MaggieJordanACN It was A Trump/Cruz love fest. https://t.co/dpOb0qrOLr in reply to MaggieJordanACN
  • 04:04:21 Retweeted @GideonResnick 04:01:07 Trump: Cruz is great
    Cruz: Trump is great
    Rubio: Fuck
    Jeb: I'm trying
    Carson: Pubis
    Fiorina: Cross
    Paul: Eh?
    Christie: Tough
    Kasich: Karate
  • 04:05:36 Retweeted @jmartNYT 04:05:23 Trump failed to keep this debate that short. Shoulda gotten w Ben and made it happen.
  • 04:06:01 Debate over. Woo!
  • 04:07:18 Post-debate poll predictions: Trump steady or up, but Cruz/Rubio continue to gain on him. Carson/Bush continue to drop. Nobody else matters.
  • 04:09:08 Bottom line though, nothing happened to dethrone Trump. His odds of the nom keep going up. Not over 50% yet, but better than others.
  • 04:10:51 My take on Republican nomination odds right now, 40% Trump, 25% Cruz, 25% Rubio, 10% someone else.
  • 04:13:36 Trump on CNN saying “no third party run no matter what”. Follow up makes clear it is because he thinks he is going to win nom outright.
  • 04:14:48 That is the most unambiguous statement yet. Could still change his mind if he feels he gets screwed in some way, but… he thinks he has this.
  • 04:16:54 That “not” was unclear. I thought the interviewer thought he said not, then asked for confirmation, and Trump confirmed no matter what.
  • 04:17:03 Time to rewind…
  • 04:17:34 Retweeted @nprpolitics 04:17:28 Final talk times:
    Cruz 15:58
    Rubio 13:33
    Trump 13:25
    Christie 10:45
    Carson 10:27
    Bush 10:13
    Paul 9:46
    Fiorina 9:32
    Kasich: 9:00
    #nprdebate
  • 04:27:25 Just rewatched the Trump-CNN interview. He is saying “no matter what”. But… nothing stopping that changing if he feels he gets screwed.
  • 05:00:47 Retweeted @ScottNY71 05:00:14 @petersuderman @abulsme Such a good analogy. Sad on many levels that so few will get it. in reply to petersuderman
  • 05:36:27 Yup. -> Republicans are trying to beat Trump with wishful thinking and it's not working (@mattyglesias) https://t.co/nNLLVFmQ2J
  • 07:54:47 Awesome -> From C-3PO’s perspective, ‘Star Wars’ is a prolonged nightmare (@petridishes) https://t.co/7uVQzjHkha
  • 14:32:36 Retweeted @PatrickRuffini 14:04:51 In 2012, Santorum did not start moving up in IA until 30 days out & was in 6th a week out. https://t.co/06iKmcrnSM https://t.co/9bRmWmxnSr
  • 15:43:15 Reading – Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble? (Nate Silver) https://t.co/q608ClO0UM
  • 15:58:06 Reading – A Gradebook from Deep in the Heart of Crazy (Josh Marshall)
  • 17:20:48 Watching – Jimmy Fallon, The Roots & "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" Cast Sing "Star Wars" Medley (Tonight Show) https://t.co/SGuR51jgJ1
  • 18:01:19 Retweeted @pastfrontrunner 17:00:37 At this point in —
    2004: Dean +15
    2008 (D): H. Clinton +18.5
    (R): Giuliani +2.5
    2012: Gingrich +10.5
    https://t.co/8pTnsrwBv0
  • 18:02:45 Note we are not yet where any of the eventual winners in 2004, 2008, or 2012 were in the lead in the national polls. Things change fast.
  • 19:25:23 Retweeted @costareports 19:24:16 Trump emails @washingtonpost a statement about Bush orbit's talk of not backing Trump if he wins nom: https://t.co/FX32RqCPK0
  • 21:57:29 Just bought my family’s Star Wars ticks. For the 26th. A long time from now. Starting aggressively muting all things Star Wars. #dontspoilme