Abulsme.com: Tweet

@abulsme tweets from 2016-03-04 (UTC)

02:02:40 Debate time! Woo! They asked them to be respectful. Ha!
02:06:34 The crowd is very excited.
02:07:24 OMFG.
02:07:44 Retweeted @dbernstein 02:07:27 Trump says he has a big dick.
02:07:47 Retweeted @DavidCornDC 02:07:27 Next up: Trump drops his pants. #GOPDebate
02:08:00 Retweeted @politicalwire 02:07:55 7 minutes in and we’re taking penis size. I love politics.
02:08:05 Retweeted @dceiver 02:07:58 RUBIO: I"m ready to talk about policy
TRUMP: My dick is tremendous.
02:11:12 Retweeted @PoliticalLine 02:11:05 RIP GOP
02:12:01 I can’t believe this represents the best one of our two major national parties can produce. So sad. This is a shitshow.
02:12:40 Retweeted @CynthiaRoldan 02:12:28 "He referred to my hands, 'if they're small, something else must be small.' I guarantee you there's no problem." вЂ” @realDonaldTrump
02:13:48 Kasich is indeed the only adult on this stage.
02:15:07 Retweeted @MileHighBrendan 02:14:44 See now this is what I mean. Trump flat-out lied when he said polls show he's the only 1 who can beat HRC. No correction from "journalists."
02:18:52 Retweeted @RadioFreeTom 02:18:41 "Do you make your clothes in Mexico?"
"Fuck this little guy."
#GOPDebate
02:19:25 Retweeted @politicalwire 02:19:16 This is quite a choice that Republican voters have
02:19:58 Retweeted @EsotericCD 02:07:45 We just had a presidential frontrunner boast about his penis-size in a national debate. This is a thing that just happened.
02:21:17 In the last couple of debates, I’ve found all this stuff funny and entertaining. Now I just want to cry. This is pitiful.
02:22:18 The GOP has hit bottom and has now pulled out the shovels.
02:22:53 Retweeted @DavidCornDC 02:22:44 Abraham Lincoln. Just saying. #GOPDebate
02:23:45 Moderators slamming Trump on facts. Wow.
02:24:53 Retweeted @AriFleischer 02:24:45 This is how you interview Trump. Through facts and follow-ups. Good job Chris Wallace.
02:26:20 Retweeted @DavidChalian 02:21:33 I'm now convinced that Rubio is trying to bait Trump into punching him.
03:06:46 Was dealing with Alex the last 20 minutes or so. Did I miss anything good?
03:09:38 Moderators really going after Trump tonight. Interesting.
03:10:27 Retweeted @TheOtherKeppler 03:09:32 I submit, again, that previous presidents should moderate debate. No one can call BS better than them. No one knows the job better. #debate
03:10:41 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 03:10:28 Megyn Kelly. Wow.
03:10:54 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 03:10:35 Megyn Kelly is going to after Donald Trump in a way that is making him run with his tail between his legs. #GOPDebate
03:12:00 If Trump votes actually cared, this would be devastating for Trump. But they don’t.
03:14:51 вЂњIs this the debate you want?вЂќ – Cruz
03:15:25 Retweeted @pbump 03:15:18 what if they did this in july
03:15:46 Retweeted @tbogg 03:07:16 This is what is known as Resting "I'm tired of hearing about your dick" face https://t.co/YxIWqLmWsM
03:16:14 Retweeted @BadAstronomer 03:15:50 I keep refreshing the вЂњPotential Earth-Impacting AsteroidsвЂќ page but no such luck. #GOPDebate
03:21:08 Retweeted @TheFix 03:11:07 Look, Megyn Kelly is very good at this. VERY.
03:31:00 Why are the religious liberty questions always about fundamentalist Christians?
03:34:03 Missed another 20 minutes or so. Nobody ever tells me what I missed, so I guess I won’t ask.
03:39:51 Retweeted @liamstack 03:39:36 Cruz: Donald, please, I know it's hard not to interrupt. Breathe, breathe.
Rubio: When you're done with the yoga can I answer a question?
03:40:39 Retweeted @PatrickSvitek 03:40:14 – Cruz to Trump: Breathe.
– Rubio: Can I answer after this yoga?
– Cruz: Let's not do yoga on this stage.
– Rubio: Well, Trump's flexible.
03:49:51 No EMP? He didn’t mention EMPs?
03:55:59 Missed more of this debate than I would have liked. But.. last question!
03:56:11 Will they all support Trump?
03:56:36 Rubio: Yes, will support Trump.
03:56:52 Cruz: Yes, will support Trump.
03:57:31 Kasich: Yes, will support Trump.
03:57:58 That’s it. they all think Trump is horrible, but will all support him anyway. They are all disqualified.
03:58:16 Retweeted @AdamWeinstein 03:58:06 Rubio at 10:40: DONALD TRUMP CAN'T BE COMMANDER IN CHIEF HE'S NOT SERIOUS
Rubio at 10:55: I'D SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT
03:59:16 Will Trump support one of the others? Yes. He will. OK.
03:59:26 Retweeted @chrislhayes 03:59:17 That's it. That was the ballgame. They'll all support him when he's the nominee. So will Fox.
03:59:55 Retweeted @politicalmath 03:59:49 "Will you support the candidate even if it isn't you?"
And everyone on stage lies
04:00:22 Closing statements now.
04:01:21 Retweeted @jmartNYT 04:01:08 I don't think Rubio quite got meaning of #nevertrump when he tweeted last week
04:02:34 OK, usual post-debate prediction: It changes absolutely nothing. People have already picked their sides.
04:02:59 And Fox goes straight to interview Trump for more.
04:03:41 Retweeted @_cingraham 04:03:29 "Donald Trump will destroy civilization as we know it"
"So he's worse than a Democrat?"
"WHOA whoa let's not get carried away"
04:03:57 Retweeted @teddyschleifer 03:56:57 Cruz on why he would support Trump: "Because I gave my word that I would."
04:04:01 Retweeted @jbarro 04:03:44 Trump was a genius for engineering a situation where all his opponents would sign pledges to support him. https://t.co/6M5p7JzkPE
04:05:10 Retweeted @washingtonpost 04:04:18 Watch: Tonight's #GOPDebate, in less than 3 minutes https://t.co/9FQoOjPZc7
04:05:47 Retweeted @Green_Footballs 04:05:17 So it took #NeverTrump less than a week to be rendered totally irrelevant.
04:06:17 Retweeted @MoElleithee 04:04:25 I'm still stunned.
Rubio and Cruz drew real blood tonight with attacks on Trump U.

Then they personally administered the first aid.
04:08:42 Retweeted @PatrickSvitek 03:06:51 As far as I can tell, there's been absolutely no Cruz vs. Rubio violence tonight so far
04:10:11 OK, time to do other stuff. I did miss probably half of it in the end, but everything I saw of tonight’s debate was just pitiful.
05:06:21 Retweeted @HillaryClinton 03:59:36 How many more of these do we have to sit through? Asking for a friend. #GOPdebate https://t.co/AxGFlerSRW
05:11:25 Retweeted @JamieJohnsonUSA 03:15:28 My party is committing suicide on national television. #GOPDebate
05:12:09 Retweeted @FrankLuntz 05:04:46 Words used by my focus group to describe tonight’s #GOPDebate:
вЂў disgusting
вЂў embarrassing
вЂў childish
вЂў sophomoric

Get the idea?
05:12:17 Retweeted @sahilkapur 04:29:35 After 10 debates, Republicans realized Trump is their real foe and focused their fire on him. Then they vowed to back him if he’s nominated.
05:12:49 Retweeted @KatyTurNBC 04:34:06 See how beautiful my hands are. They're powerful hands – Trump to me in spin room
05:24:26 Reading – Donald Trump Was Set Up (Alex Pareene) https://t.co/S2XxnPy03U
05:26:09 Retweeted @AuthenticWmGibs 02:59:47 Debates should be recorded, fact checked for a couple days, then released with popups debunking lies or mistakes.
05:36:19 Reading – No matter what happens, the Republican Party is hurtling toward disaster (Matthew Yglesias) https://t.co/iQGAc7Q3tX
05:37:07 Retweeted @Marty2634 05:36:45 @abulsme How are you doing? in reply to abulsme
05:37:47 .@Marty2634 Doing well Marty. Hope you are too. :-). What did you think of the debate? in reply to Marty2634
05:39:39 Retweeted @Marty2634 05:39:00 @abulsme I'm doing fine, thanks! I thought tonight's Fox News 2016 GOP Presidential TV Debate was "Substantive" on the Issues-Trump Attacked in reply to abulsme
05:40:50 .@Marty2634 It was interesting seeing the moderators actually do some real time fact checking and push back. in reply to Marty2634
05:41:05 Retweeted @Marty2634 05:39:54 @abulsme I thought Ohio Gov John Kasich did a Great Job at the Fox News TV Presidential Debate in Detroit. Won't be Nominee-but good job in reply to abulsme
05:42:30 .@Marty2634 As many have pointed out, he seemed like the only adult on stage. But the Repub voters don’t seem to be in the mood for that. in reply to Marty2634
06:11:52 Retweeted @Marty2634 05:42:17 @abulsme How likely is it that Mitt Romney & his Surrogates will try to Stop Donald Trump from being the 2016 GOP Pres Nominee at Convention in reply to abulsme
06:13:24 .@Marty2634 That they will try? 100%. Succeed? That is less likely. in reply to Marty2634
06:13:28 Retweeted @Marty2634 05:43:15 @abulsme How do you think Co-Moderator Megyn Kelly did at tonight's Fox News Presidential TV Debate? Asked Trump tough Q's0etc in reply to abulsme
06:15:20 .@Marty2634 I think she did well. It was good to see the push back. in reply to Marty2634
06:15:32 Retweeted @Marty2634 05:52:17 @abulsme Don't you think the 2016 Dem Presidential Nominee & Party will be United in the Gen Election vs GOP Pres Nominee-Fighting-Candidate in reply to abulsme
06:17:03 .@Marty2634 Yes. I think the Dems will come together more easily. But I think more R’s will rally around Trump than many think. in reply to Marty2634
06:19:29 Retweeted @Marty2634 06:17:44 @abulsme It will be Very Exciting to see what happens this year! in reply to abulsme
06:58:30 Watching – GHOSTBUSTERS – Official Trailer (HD) https://t.co/ogyhgrqaio
12:27:40 Retweeted @JeffreyGoldberg 05:56:31 Trump's penis-boasting is ultimately immaterial; his promise to compel the U.S. military to commit war crimes is what's important here.
12:34:12 Reading – If Super Tuesday Voting Pattern Continues, Donald Trump Will Reach Delegate Target (Nate Cohn) https://t.co/nJeFhcAPli
12:54:46 Reading – The Revenge of the Lower Classes and the Rise of American Fascism (Chris Hedges) https://t.co/fXNS4qkZ5d
14:50:48 Retweeted @imbou 14:40:11 @abulsme same here didn't see the whole thing but what an embarrassment to America in reply to abulsme
16:30:40 Reading – My Gen X Hillary problem: I know why we don’t вЂњlikeвЂќ Clinton (Hana Schank) https://t.co/1MyZUtfBfh
16:37:15 Reading – NY Times Report Debunks Severity of Emailgate With Classic Clintonian Wordsmithing (John R. Schindler) https://t.co/lGEx1I6SAj
16:38:37 Retweeted @ArmsControlWonk 16:01:40 After fifty years of dog-whistling, national political party is shocked by horde of ravenous dogs that has appeared.
18:29:47 Funny -> Reading – Debate Scorecard (Ace of Spades) https://t.co/O4cKC9uKjr

@abulsme tweets from 2016-03-03 (UTC)

01:51:29 Retweeted @AndrewPaulJoyce 01:47:52 @morningmoneyben What happens if Trump gets <1237 delegates but no other candidate has the majority of delegates from 8 states per rule 40? in reply to morningmoneyben
01:51:37 Retweeted @morningmoneyben 01:49:47 Then Satan arises to burn us all with his terrible fire. https://t.co/v6bqPzuVai
08:15:03 Retweeted @NKingofDC 03:05:12 Am curious what the total votes so far are for Trump vs the number for Romney at the same stage in '12. https://t.co/KNlqsOwAE8
08:15:07 Retweeted @derektmuller 03:10:30 @NKingofDC @stuartpstevens Here was my visualization: https://t.co/EWDdgZoI3e in reply to NKingofDC
08:17:39 .@derektmuller @NKingofDC @stuartpstevens I included 2016/2012/2008 comparison graphs of вЂњ% remaining neededвЂќ here: https://t.co/jvSupgzn72 in reply to derektmuller
15:34:21 Reading – The Republican Establishment Is Beginning to Plot the Anti-Trump Coup (Jordan Sargent) https://t.co/CyysqL5bDt
15:34:28 Retweeted @normative 15:19:54 I know math is hard, but it's not "denying the wishes of voters" if the guy with 30% of the votes loses the nom. https://t.co/AGEgXllx3s
15:36:00 Retweeted @donnabrazile 15:35:43 The idea that party bosses will cut off his access to the media or stop Trump from attracting voters who wish him well is entertaining.
15:36:16 Retweeted @kenrudin 15:36:01 Does anyone think #MittRomney calling #Trump a "fraud" & "phony" will change any minds? The Romney crowd knows it & Trump crowd laughs.
17:48:48 Retweeted @elisefoley 2016-03-02 12:22:03 Trump voter on Fox News says he likes that Trump doesn’t give specific policy ideas because otherwise other candidates might steal them.
17:57:00 Retweeted @BuzzFeedAndrew 17:56:44 Tonight's debate is going to be fucking crazy.
18:05:28 Retweeted @MarcusAlzona 18:05:10 @abulsme another factor: in Maryland only the Cruz & Rubio campaigns filed a full slate of delegates & alt delegates https://t.co/Qhdl6mvINU in reply to abulsme
18:07:43 .@MarcusAlzona Usually these kids of misses are resolved quietly behind the scenes & everybody gets their delegates, but in race like thisвЂ¦ in reply to MarcusAlzona
18:10:14 .@MarcusAlzona In the Curmudgeon’s Corner we recorded but haven’t put out yet, we talk a bit about these kinds of possible вЂњglitchesвЂќ. in reply to abulsme
18:10:56 .@MarcusAlzona If the establishment wants to вЂњplay dirtyвЂќ there are a lot of ways they can do it. But doing so has risks too. in reply to abulsme
18:12:15 .@MarcusAlzona Another play would be doing rules changes at the convention to do things like unbind delegates on the 1st ballot. in reply to abulsme
20:04:41 Listening to Mystery Show Case #6 Kotter https://t.co/3e1jpTANVg
20:41:49 Good stuff from @fhq on delegates -> Listening to Slate's The Gist Trump’s Tiny Little Lead https://t.co/VeNk00TUOf
21:16:16 Retweeted @TimAlberta 20:53:52 Dirty little secret of primary sked: many post-3/15 states are NOT winner-take-all. A big early delegate lead almost impossible to overcome.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-03-02 (UTC)

00:00:10 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 2016-03-01 23:59:58 Here we go… May peace be with all of you.
00:00:13 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 00:00:00 And we begin #SuperTuesday
00:00:15 Retweeted @mmurraypolitics 00:00:01 NBC News projects Hillary Clinton wins GA and VA primaries
NBC News projects Bernie Sanders wins VT primary
00:00:24 Retweeted @BenjySarlin 00:00:09 7 PM POLLS CLOSE
NBC News calls GEORGIA for Trump.

VIRGINIA too close to call between Trump/Rubio

VERMONT too early to call
00:59:17 Retweeted @natsecHeather 00:59:01 11y.o. -"if Gilmore had stayed in, would he have won VA?" What have I done???
01:50:19 Retweeted @liamstack 01:50:09 CNN projects that Trump has won Virginia, his 5th win tonight and his 8th win overall.
01:50:22 Retweeted @mmurraypolitics 01:50:12 Tonight's scorecard as of 8:49pm ET:
Clinton wins: AL, AR, GA, TN, VA

Trump wins: AL, GA, MA, TN, VA

Sanders wins: VT
01:51:17 Retweeted @liamstack 01:51:05 Observation from CNN on Trump's primary win in Virginia: the Republican establishment *lives* in Virginia. in reply to liamstack
01:52:27 Retweeted @dgordon52 01:42:39 My dog, my 3 yr old son, my 2 yr old daughter…. All people who have won the same number of primaries this year as Marco Rubio.
01:53:30 Retweeted @rubycramer 01:53:18 Surprise! @HillaryClinton comes right out on stage in Miami, with no warning or intro speakers. Crowd breaks into "Hill-a-ry!" chants.
01:59:16 Clinton 100% general election now. Nothing in this speech about primary race other than the вЂњcongrats to SandersвЂќ bit at the beginning.
02:24:01 I’m updating delegate estimates periodically as the night progresses. Follow @ElectionGraphs for notes when I add data.
02:26:28 Retweeted @DKElections 02:26:16 Rubio is at 18.7 in TX: Needs to hit 20% to get delegates #SuperTuesday
02:32:41 Retweeted @JustinWolfers 02:32:26 CNN: "It's about momentum as much as math."
What on earth does that mean? in reply to JustinWolfers
02:33:29 Retweeted @lrozen 02:33:20 Axelrod: The Rubio project is in disarray
02:33:40 Retweeted @anamariecox 02:33:25 Remember @LindseyGrahamSC said Cruz v. Trump was shooting yourself or poisoning yourself? Lotta DC elites wondering how arsenic tastes rn.
02:37:18 Retweeted @vicenews 02:37:10 #SuperTuesday so far…
Trump: AL, GA, MA, TN, VA
Cruz: TX, OK
Clinton: GA, VA, AL, TN, AR, TX
Sanders: VT, OK
https://t.co/q0Aa7y7iaq
02:38:20 Retweeted @SallyAlbright 02:35:10 What if Trump's big announcement is that he's been punking us and just wanted to prove to us how much chaos he could cause? #fb
02:39:33 Retweeted @nycjim 02:39:25 Chris Christie in his role as Trump’s spokesman: https://t.co/XQGxlj2c6L
02:39:40 Retweeted @BNONews 02:38:56 BREAKING: Florida Governor Rick Scott to endorse Donald Trump for president – Fox News
02:41:48 BTW, I am listening to @CNN audio on my phone tonight, but WATCHING @twitter, @DecisionDeskHQ, and @TheGreenPapers.
02:43:24 Retweeted @pourmecoffee 02:43:16 You can see Chris Christie's reviewing the choices he made that resulted in him ending up here.
02:44:58 Trump actually seems really mellow right now. Not his usual self. HmmmвЂ¦.
02:45:14 Retweeted @fineout 02:41:29 Spox for @FLGovScott: "He's not endorsing" @realDonaldTrump
02:45:28 Retweeted @JessicaTaylor 02:43:46 This Trump speech feels weird — it's a press conference, not a victory night party, which is what all the other candidates have. So subdued
02:48:38 Retweeted @Atrios 02:48:28 "That's a good boy, Chris, here's your treat" – trump, in about 2 minutes, probably
02:52:36 Retweeted @moneyries 02:43:46 Chris Christie's face right now https://t.co/hmSzUxvaoZ
02:52:46 Retweeted @BeschlossDC 02:52:35 This is staged to look like a Presidential press conference.
04:33:16 Retweeted @WakeUp2Politics 04:32:28 GOP #SuperTuesday scorecard: Trump six states (AL, AR, GA, MA, TN, VA), Cruz two (OK, TX), Rubio one (MN). No call b/t Trump/Kasich in VT.
04:33:39 Retweeted @DKElections 04:25:53 Final Dems #SuperTuesday score: Hillary wins AL, AR, GA, MA, TN, TX, VA. Sanders wins CO, MN, OK, VT
04:39:29 Retweeted @PoliticoKevin 04:22:35 BREAKING: The RNC has decided that the Minnesota caucuses are worth 5,712,743,234 delegates.
04:43:06 Retweeted @justin_halpern 03:01:53 CNN: How did Trump get so popular? It's a mystery. Anyway, we go now to Mr. Trump who we will broadcast uninterrupted for 25 minutes.
04:46:44 Retweeted @drvox 04:35:18 Now that I have fallen behind Rubio, with his 1 state to my 0, I’ve decided it’s time to suspend my campaign.
04:48:41 Retweeted @jbarro 04:34:04 Normally, if GOP operatives and donors were trying to anoint a candidate who was 1 for 14, you'd all be snickering with me.
09:33:22 Retweeted @chucktodd 06:18:31 Cruz and Rubio camps are no longer pretending they can win this nomination before Cleveland. Both camps pushing convention scenarios.
09:33:28 Retweeted @chrislhayes 06:20:08 If the collective goal is now: keep Trump under 1237, then everyone stays in until the convention. https://t.co/sjWHaSw42P
09:38:29 Retweeted @Radimere 09:37:51 @abulsme https://t.co/rYtZr5kzfj
09:38:53 .@Radimere I just retweeted that a few minutes ago! :-) in reply to Radimere
09:41:08 Retweeted @Radimere 09:40:56 Prepare yourself @abulsme cause if there's a contested convention u and @imbou r goen!!
09:41:57 .@Radimere @imbou To watch it on TV from a Motel 6 in the suburbs 30 miles from the actual convention? :-) in reply to Radimere
10:19:08 Retweeted @Radimere 09:59:13 @abulsme @imbou as long as ur casting, I'll take it! in reply to abulsme
14:55:19 Retweeted @imbou 13:07:42 @abulsme @Radimere alternative media is being recognized more and more, you did get invited to the White House! in reply to abulsme
14:56:13 .@imbou @Radimere In 1994! Ok Ivan, you get working on acquiring our credentials. :-) in reply to imbou
15:07:39 Retweeted @bkesling 14:56:07 "I could be the вЂmainstream’ option vs Trump, HRC"
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson on Wednesday
16:34:30 [Blog Post] Democrats: Super Tuesday pretty much as expected. What next? https://t.co/7aju7j30DI
17:46:50 Reading – Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? (Nate Silver) https://t.co/kKUOtuFAPd
19:55:43 What are the odds people are giving for Romney’s thing tomorrow being announcing a third party run? Timing would be right to kick one off.
19:58:28 Bye bye Carson. Sorta.
20:03:08 I wonder how diligent the Trump campaign has been about making sure their actual human delegates are 100% loyal in case of a second ballot.
22:04:27 Reading – Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination (Aaron Bycoffe) https://t.co/ho0yVkTAMk
23:55:43 [Blog Post] Republicans: Trump wins Super Tuesday. Is it too late to stop him? https://t.co/0DgNkfscBs

@abulsme tweets from 2016-03-01 (UTC)

03:10:10 Retweeted @ObsoleteDogma 02:57:59 It's come to this: Republicans are attacking their last presidential nominee for being against the KKK https://t.co/QP7M0YIBGQ
15:07:59 Retweeted @nataliemjb 2016-02-29 17:50:02 So… @realDonaldTrump
is running ahead of where @MittRomney
was this time in 2012. https://t.co/6digehtxLE https://t.co/QNxm6HWpNR
16:11:41 Retweeted @owenBparsons 15:20:22 @MikeDrucker Entrance polls show major turnout among "time travelers desperate to stop a ruined future" in reply to MikeDrucker
17:21:37 Good stuff -> Dear GOP: We Can’t Save You If You Won’t Save Yourself (John Scalzi) https://t.co/0geBFpsinY
17:26:56 Reading – Why Can’t the G.O.P. Stop Trump? (Hans Noel) https://t.co/RmEWJdpxJB
17:43:32 Retweeted @RandPaul 15:39:53 If they endorse me and declare a Do Over in New Hampshire I will un-suspend <symbol>Happy #SuperTuesday https://t.co/6oaZPIdvWg
18:31:24 [Abulpost] Electoral College: Trump tipping point decline, Rubio takes lead in Michigan and nationally https://t.co/OzmtPRrNUu
22:26:10 (1/10) – @radimere asked me at lunch for my current odds of President Trump. So I tried to estimate it out.
22:26:20 (2/10) – Nomination: 75% Trump wins outright, 20% contested convention, 5% someone else wins outright
22:26:25 (3/10) – Contested convention: 75% Trump wins nom anyway, 25% someone else
22:26:28 (4/10) – General election in Any Dem vs Trump: 80% Dem, 20% Trump. I think this is roughly true no matter which Dem is the nom.
22:26:31 (5/10) – For the record even though it doesn’t matter for this calc – Dem nom: 95% Clinton, 3% Sanders, 2% someone else via crazy stuff.
22:26:34 (6/10) If Trump loses nomination, I think it will be too late for him to mount effective 3rd party challenge, so giving 0% odds for that.
22:26:37 (7/10) w/Trump nom I give 1/3rd chance a rump Republican party runs someone as a 3rd party. In that case, I think Trump win odds negligible.
22:26:39 (8/10) So Trump nom = 75%+20%*75% = 90%. 30% of that Trump loses in 3 way race. So 60% chance of Dem vs Trump.
22:26:42 (9/10) 60% chance of Dem vs Trump * 20% chance of Trump winning = 12% chance of President Trump
22:26:45 (10/10) So my best odds right now are a 12% chance of President Trump. I kinda wish that number were not as high as it is. Scary.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-29 (UTC)

01:32:43 [Abulpost] ALeXMXeLA: Minecraft Meltdown (Ep 1) https://t.co/wlNRsTbGuq
04:17:07 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 04:11:14 In January alone, the three networks gave Trump almost 16x the coverage of Rubio, who was constantly talking policy. https://t.co/o0vIkAsJOc in reply to NumbersMuncher
15:57:11 Nice -> Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Donald Trump (HBO) https://t.co/St59OWqkEp
18:15:18 Reading – How Any Remaining GOP Candidate Could Win The Nomination (Natalie Jackson) https://t.co/XrMfoJPDuP
18:44:33 Reading – The Die-Hard Republicans Who Say #NeverTrump (Megan McArdle) https://t.co/a6kzUYJ80V
21:45:01 Retweeted @tnyCloseRead 21:42:34 Wait, the bombshell people hope the Times can spring is that Trump said something marginally less extreme off the record than on the record?
22:44:46 Retweeted @hshaban 22:28:41 A Judge in New York rules in favor of Apple, denies the government's request for the company to bypass its security https://t.co/Fv200NdYDv
23:04:48 Retweeted @SnoCo_Scanner 22:38:51 House fire with reported flames showing. 2717 128th Street SE. Listen here https://t.co/RSyZELydCR
23:06:24 .@SnoCo_Scanner View of smoke column from 124th St SE. https://t.co/vAqTvMgeRX in reply to SnoCo_Scanner
23:06:34 Retweeted @SnoCo_Scanner 22:58:25 Additional engines being requested for the house fire next to Ruggs Lake.
23:06:41 Retweeted @MyEverettNews 22:58:43 Commuters may want to avoid 132nd SE Between 19th SE (Lowes) – 35th SE. Also 35th SE between 132nd and 124th due to huge house fire response
23:06:50 Retweeted @RolandBailie 22:59:23 Dark smoke plume in Everett as seen from Bellevue. @kiro7chopper https://t.co/NRPGEJRPNj
23:08:01 Retweeted @KIRO7Seattle 23:04:53 #BREAKING: Large smoke plume seen rising from Everett as house burns. LIVE: https://t.co/lHw0RbvJsB https://t.co/kwsdeJNUsJ
23:10:20 Retweeted @SnoCo_Scanner 23:10:05 @abulsme Thanks in reply to abulsme
23:10:45 Retweeted @SnoCo_Scanner 23:10:25 Command reporting all occupants from the house fire accounted for.
23:17:08 Retweeted @KIRO7Seattle 23:08:50 #BREAKING: Large fire in #Everett
What we know: https://t.co/rpdhDc8C94
LIVE: https://t.co/lHw0RbvJsB https://t.co/FvGloZLWYD
23:21:38 Retweeted @MyEverettNews 23:21:26 To clarify house fire is southeast of #Everett near Ruggs Lake. Avoid 132nd SE Between 19thSE and 35thSE and Avoid 35th SE 132nd to 124th
23:43:52 Retweeted @beyond90seconds 22:44:39 House fire . Live. Everett, wa.@kazoo1963 on #Periscope: Untitled https://t.co/wwdquemSSz
23:43:54 Retweeted @beyond90seconds 22:53:18 "Corridor fir Vic" .@kazoo1963 on #Periscope: Untitled https://t.co/X0dxL2Xtkc
23:43:57 Retweeted @beyond90seconds 23:08:35 More from Everett house fire. .@kazoo1963 on #Periscope: Untitled https://t.co/mgySrWAewX
23:44:01 Retweeted @beyond90seconds 23:39:35 @HannahEverman1 Hi, Hannah. I merely shared the link to those 'scopes on Twitter. Not my video(s). Video was shot by @kazoo1963. in reply to HannahEverman1

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-28 (UTC)

00:28:51 Reading – Did Christie just spark 'draft Romney' move? (Brent Budowsky) https://t.co/PlInXciEzD
00:30:36 Reading – Marco Rubio’s Trump Attacks Expose Uncomfortable Truths for the Right (Brian Beutler) https://t.co/O9Rm9It35u
00:34:05 BTW, although SC already called for Clinton (duh), I’ll be waiting for del counts to stabilize before updating https://t.co/5PiqiQ0XaS.
00:48:12 Watch the estimated delegate counts as the vote counting continues here: https://t.co/stKiTwxZNj
01:21:37 Retweeted @NateSilver538 01:21:17 One might be tempted to say that 96% white New Hampshire has proved not to be well-representative of the Democratic electorate overall.
01:26:47 Retweeted @JuddLegum 01:25:04 1. Polling average had Hillary leading by 27 points in South Carolina. She's currently up 50 points with 55% of the vote in.
01:28:50 Retweeted @politico 01:24:51 .@realDonaldTrump to @ChrisChristie: "Get in the plane and go home." https://t.co/uiZF5eV0lX
01:48:25 Retweeted @CNBCnow 01:48:07 Update: With 75% of the vote in at 8:45p ET, Clinton leads Sanders 74% to 26% https://t.co/9MIcDGdzZe https://t.co/p6HgvR6otC in reply to CNBCnow
02:07:05 [Abulpost] Electoral College: Some good news for Cruz, Mixed news for Rubio https://t.co/ZzWFuY9lj4
02:11:09 Retweeted @gerrycanavan 02:10:41 2016 Trump
2020 Trump
2024 Trump
2026 Revolutionary Council
2028 Trump
2032, 2036 elections suspended
2040 Chelsea Clinton vs George P Bush
03:34:29 Added SC del results. Clinton +39, Sanders +14. New totals: Clinton 536, Sanders 82, O’Malley 3 – Blog post later – https://t.co/MZrA9dFRue
03:35:45 Retweeted @Marty2634 03:35:35 @abulsme Hello, Do you remember chatting with me? Do you think Dem H. Clinton will Dominate Super Tuesday & Win many States & Delegates? in reply to abulsme
03:36:45 .@Marty2634 Yes, I remember. And yes, I do. Later tonight I’m going to do a post using current polls 2 estimate delegate hauls, but yes. :-) in reply to Marty2634
03:37:39 Retweeted @RyanLizza 01:38:52 Question from me to top Sanders adviser: "Did you think it would be this bad?"
A: "Yes."
03:38:13 Retweeted @Marty2634 03:37:44 @abulsme Do you feel that Donald Trump will Win Most of the GOP States & Delegates on "Super Tuesday"? Or can Sen. Cruz/Rubio Stop him? in reply to abulsme
03:40:06 .@Marty2634 Yes, I think he will. Already did my post on that one: https://t.co/QjSp0C884l – Near 50% of delegates, possibly over. in reply to Marty2634
03:42:04 .@Marty2634 Not impos to stop at that point, but getting close. I gave odds at 70% Trump outright win, 20% brokered conv, 10% someone else. in reply to abulsme
04:22:54 Retweeted @bennyjohnson 00:35:28 Christie: Thank you baby.
Trump: Get on the plane and go home.
Christie: Got it.
Trump: It's over there, go home.

https://t.co/Bsywm2Da6U
04:24:52 Retweeted @politicalmath 03:10:47 Chris Christie is Lando https://t.co/X0q1w9axIM
06:38:10 Retweeted @stephencgrant 2016-02-26 13:54:37 FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PUT A COMMA IN THERE https://t.co/ngF8R8xVpM in reply to stephencgrant
06:40:42 Retweeted @arthurmacmillan 06:13:08 #BREAKING Rouhani allies win all 30 seats in Tehran, after 90 percent of votes counted: state tv #IranElections2016 @AFP
06:46:14 Retweeted @BillKristol 04:53:10 Amazing.
Trump praised the Chinese government for the Tiananmen Square massacre. @jaynordlinger has the story.
https://t.co/Op09ZocgQP
06:46:20 Retweeted @MileHighBrendan 06:07:40 Amazing. 8+ months into Trump's candidacy and only *now* is even the most basic oppo research happening. https://t.co/Fbf0BWNmdX
09:17:10 [Abulpost] Democrats: Clinton wins South Carolina, plus a look at Super Tuesday https://t.co/PXwvNX3XX4
16:07:24 Retweeted @ZeddRebel 14:53:29 Trump RT'd a Nazi, quoted Mussolini, attacked judge for being 'Spanish', and refused to condemn the KKK.
That was just the last 24 hours.
16:10:10 Retweeted @JM_Ashby 15:55:14 Far too many people still think David Duke is going to hurt Trump. It's more likely to help him.
16:11:06 Retweeted @virginiahughes 15:46:03 Donald Trump just told Chuck Todd he doesn't mind being associated with Mussolini
16:22:08 Retweeted @RawStory 14:50:39 Trump: вЂIt would be very unfair’ to disavow KKK and David Duke until I вЂdo research on them’ https://t.co/fjQ7UrwYHw https://t.co/kWLUM5Y6tv
16:27:45 It is amazing to watch mainstream Rs finally opening the oppo book & attacking Trump from all sides. TODAY. When it is probably too late.
16:33:53 At this point the Trumpets have chosen. Attacks on Trump will not change minds, they will lock in support. вЂњThey are being unfair to Trump!вЂќ
16:36:52 Reading – Donald Trump is a technical analyst (Myles Udland) https://t.co/vdzu7K7Z0V
16:37:29 Reading – Donald Trump, CMT (Joshua M Brown) https://t.co/u6iMiWGHBP
16:40:35 Retweeted @mattyglesias 16:28:29 To think, @realDonaldTrump could have avoided all this Mussolini trouble if he’d just added вЂњRTs в‰ endorsementsвЂќ to his bio.
16:45:20 Wow. Mussolini quote was bait from Gawker! -> How We Fooled Donald Trump Into Retweeting Benito Mussolini (Pareene) https://t.co/5eas4GUHm8
17:24:36 Retweeted @seanmdav 17:15:55 To stop Trump, Rubio should endorse Cruz in TX to get him above 50% (winner-take-all threshold). Cruz should endorse Rubio in FL.
17:40:55 Reading – Donald Trump is remarkably dangerous to the Republican Party. Here’s why. (@TheFix) https://t.co/wXYfN2dsxV
17:44:12 Reading – Why Bernie Sanders Should Stay in the Race (Jamelle Bouie) https://t.co/Ru3WutObCI
17:48:42 Retweeted @BenjySarlin 17:46:13 One thing I'm hearing from Rubio supporters a lot at his rally: Anger that he didn't turn on Trump earlier, fear it's too late now
19:13:21 Reading – Donald Trump Knows Nothing, Or Else Is Making Extremely Clever Historical Allusion (Jonathan Chait) https://t.co/dnfiPmyzyN
20:36:42 Retweeted @DemConWatch 20:35:27 Is Bernie Sanders a Superdelegate? https://t.co/ImYTRlfKId #berniesanders #superdelegates
22:13:09 Retweeted @davidsirota 22:12:20 The assumption of modern politics seems to be that voters have the brains of goldfish & thus forget their entire universe every 15 minutes
22:14:46 Retweeted @politicalmath 22:08:01 Donald Trump has no problem w/ the size, scope, or corruption in gov't. He mostly just wishes it belonged to him.
22:21:56 Reading – 6 Lessons for Bernie Sanders From the South Carolina Primary (D.D. Guttenplan) https://t.co/SEq9wV7Gse
22:41:00 Retweeted @daveweigel 22:40:34 Sessions endorsement is an absolute kidney punch for Cruz. He frequently cites his team-up with Sessions on immigration.
22:53:07 Retweeted @PhilipRucker 22:52:25 Trump previews general election: вЂњI guarantee you one thing: We’re going to be talking about those e-mails every moment of every day.вЂќ
23:05:47 Retweeted @mcmoynihan 17:23:27 I’ve already forgotten that Donald Trump declared that he would wage war on the 1st Amendment. That was yesterday. Literally.
23:28:30 Retweeted @daveweigel 20:19:15 Hunch: Trump is better off with a KKK news cycle than with another Rubio fight one. Trump fans will see video of answer, see a media gotcha.
23:28:48 Retweeted @Taniel 23:24:03 YouGov tests narrowed fields. Among likely GOP primary voters:
Trump 49-Rubio 27-Cruz 25
Trump 58-Cruz 42
Trump 57-Rubio 43

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-27 (UTC)

00:28:41 Reading – Perry: A brokered convention would be a new ballgame for everyone вЂ” and I do mean everyone (Allahpundit) https://t.co/HDC2RewbHa
00:29:35 Reading – Donors ask GOP consulting firm to research independent presidential bid (Scott Bland) https://t.co/SE91LeLMVB
01:09:47 Listening to Exponent Episode 068 вЂ” Binary Backdoors https://t.co/u5sgHH5Yge
01:32:28 Retweeted @NateSilver538 01:26:14 Point here: a lot of professional-class Republicans might be better off opposing Trump and regrouping for 2020 than handing over the party. in reply to NateSilver538
01:32:42 Retweeted @NateSilver538 2016-02-26 22:47:27 Also to consider: in 2020, Hillary Clinton would be 72, gunning for her party's 4th straight term, possibly quite unpopular. Tough re-elect.
01:33:03 Retweeted @NateSilver538 2016-02-26 22:28:19 People are probably underrating what a shitshow the GOP convention will be, even presuming that it's not contested.
01:50:35 Listening to The Infinite Monkey Cage Brian and Robin's Infinite Inbox https://t.co/EV66k5HQ0u
15:11:59 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 15:10:09 Is there anything the results in South Carolina tonight are going to tell us besides how depressed Bernie fans are going to be?
15:14:12 Reading – Whitman scorches Christie over Trump, prefers Hillary (Tom Moran) https://t.co/6pYuvw2YnM
18:43:57 Retweeted @FHQ 18:41:31 Mini-rant coming. I don't do this often, but I do ask that you RT to combat some misinformation floating around out there.
18:44:00 Retweeted @FHQ 18:41:56 There are a lot of folks who are pedaling this fiction that CO (& WY) will have unbound delegations. This is not the case. in reply to FHQ
18:44:03 Retweeted @FHQ 18:42:21 Yes, FHQ lists both CO & WY as "unbound*" here https://t.co/ypMH2KARiT but that [*] is just a huge caveat. in reply to FHQ
18:44:07 Retweeted @FHQ 18:43:02 R delegates from CO https://t.co/Aj8q6XrMXv & WY https://t.co/BfNB2hvoiM are only unbound **if** they file to run as uncommitted. in reply to FHQ
18:44:16 Retweeted @FHQ 18:43:35 If delegate candidates in CO & WY align with a candidate when they file to run as delegates, then they are bound to those candidates. Period in reply to FHQ
18:44:19 Retweeted @FHQ 18:43:56 That is how the RNC is interpreting the CO & WY rules. in reply to FHQ
18:44:55 Retweeted @FHQ 18:44:19 There'll be some uncommitted delegates from CO & WY. The automatic delegates, probably, but only a few of the others. Most will align/pledge in reply to FHQ
18:44:58 Retweeted @FHQ 18:44:45 But that is a far different story then the one making the rounds out there that all of the CO & WY delegates will be unbound. in reply to FHQ
19:14:21 Retweeted @FHQ 18:45:12 ND's a different story as are American Samoa, Guam & Virgin Islands. in reply to FHQ
19:14:26 Retweeted @FHQ 18:45:37 But even in those, there are limitations to just how unbound/unaligned the delegates really are. https://t.co/YkyHWK02VC in reply to FHQ
19:14:31 Retweeted @FHQ 18:46:05 End rant. in reply to FHQ
19:15:04 Reading – Will Conservatives Abandon Donald Trump in the General Election? (Kevin Drum) https://t.co/VGBgyAF7qW
19:36:19 [Abulpost] Curmudgeon's Corner: The Poorly Educated https://t.co/DM9c0gSthb
19:53:55 Retweeted @ScottNY71 19:52:47 @abulsme Or will he abandon them, expose himself as the moderate that he always has been and win over even more people than he loses? in reply to abulsme
19:54:29 .@ScottNY71 Or both. in reply to ScottNY71
19:56:28 Retweeted @ScottNY71 19:56:02 @abulsme This election cycle is a political scientist/reporter's dream come true. And an American citizen's nightmare. in reply to abulsme
19:57:58 .@ScottNY71 The polysci folks are going nuts because Trump breaks all their models. вЂњThe Party DecidesвЂќ. Oops! in reply to ScottNY71
20:20:04 Retweeted @ScottNY71 19:59:52 @abulsme I've been enjoying the theater, but the candidate I respect & believe could accomplish the most (not even in my party!) won't win. in reply to abulsme
20:28:53 .@ScottNY71 You’re a Sanders guy, right? I’m sorry. :-) in reply to ScottNY71
20:30:33 Retweeted @ScottNY71 20:30:05 @abulsme No. And to avoid revealing too much publicly, I won't say anything more. in reply to abulsme
20:31:35 .@ScottNY71 Hmm. Interesting. I must have confused you with someone else. I won’t try to guess then, although that would be fun. :-) in reply to ScottNY71
20:57:55 Retweeted @arctictony 20:56:58 Is it too late to have Michelle Obama run?
21:31:33 Retweeted @CocoJr 2016-02-26 00:10:33 2016: No way will Trump win the election
2017: No way will President Trump fire all those nukes
2018: No way we're doing what those Apes say
22:07:25 Reading – Inside the GOP Implosion and the War to Stop Trump (@JoshTPM) https://t.co/Q6G5OePkCc
22:11:37 Retweeted @AlecMacGillis 21:21:45 Maybe the ur Trump voter quote, from NYT in Texas: "Nationalism is the new thing, man. I just kind of want to watch the establishment burn."

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-26 (UTC)

01:35:10 Debate time again!
01:35:59 Big q: Does anything at all happen to change the overall dynamic of the race? Best bet: No. But you never know!
01:38:03 Retweeted @MaxBoot 01:37:22 Presence of George HW Bush reminds us of how far GOP has fallen. Bush: man of honor, class, and great knowledge. Trump: the opposite.
01:42:53 Oh! Hai! Ben Carson!
01:46:35 Wolf is such a tool.
01:53:32 Nice Trump comeback on hiring illegals. Oh no, crosstalk!
01:54:09 Rubio holding his own there for a bitвЂ¦. oh, was just shut down by Trump. Oops.
01:55:51 Trump carefully not looking at Cruz as Cruz talks.
01:56:45 At least these guys are actually attacking Trump now. Not sure if it is working. He is parrying nicely. But at least they are trying.
01:57:13 Retweeted @Green_Footballs 01:56:58 There's a lot of hostility on that stage. With any luck a fist fight will break out.
01:57:31 Retweeted @LarrySabato 01:57:22 Rubio and Cruz double-teaming Trump. But which one will step aside, and when, to consolidate some of the anti-Trump vote?
01:58:41 Retweeted @TheFix 01:58:34 Trump has studied for this debate. At least the oppo research on Cruz and Rubio.
02:02:52 Paying for the wallвЂ¦ Trump obviously wouldn’t just ask them for money. He would do it via tariffs or border fees or something like that.
02:03:36 Retweeted @kairyssdal 02:03:25 Love the false outrage from Trump over profanity.
02:03:40 Retweeted @politicalwire 02:03:24 вЂњfucking wallвЂќ – drink!
02:05:19 Is Rubio going to repeat the polish workers thing over and over again all night? Didn’t he learn?
02:05:46 Yelling! Yelling! Woo!
02:05:55 Retweeted @DavidCornDC 02:05:47 Rubio keeps grinning after he finishes each attack on Trump. #GOPDebate
02:06:03 Retweeted @KatyTurNBC 02:05:53 Why didn't this Rubio show up earlier?
02:06:26 Retweeted @politicalmath 02:06:12 Trump: I make my stuff in Mexico b/c it's cheap there.Go fuck yourself.
02:06:56 If Rubio and others had been acting like this several months ago, Trump might not be here tonight. But this may be too late.
02:07:05 Retweeted @mviser 02:06:57 Marco Rubio: вЂњIf he hadn’t inherited $200 million you know where Donald Trump would be right now? Selling watches in Manhattan.вЂќ
02:07:25 Retweeted @marincogan 02:06:19 I do think Rubio is doing a good job shouting over Donald Trump tonight.
…I also think it's probably too late.
02:07:32 Retweeted @acarvin 02:06:19 Whoever is managing captioning for the #GOPdebate just dropped dead from a coronary.
02:10:20 Rubio having some good lines here. Feisty!
02:10:40 Retweeted @RosieGray 02:10:31 maybe someone should just quietly escort Kasich and Carson away so that we can settle in and enjoy this
02:11:03 Retweeted @Popehat 02:10:52 Actually there is a statute of limitation on lies. Depending on the charge it …. I'll show myself out.
02:11:43 Retweeted @elonjames 02:11:33 Rubio got prepped SO HARD for this debate. Dude has a bucket of 1 liners for Trump. #GOPdebate
02:14:14 Not sure Cruz’s quiet approach will work in this debate while Rubio/Trump going at it all out. Makes him seem like he isn’t really playing.
02:14:44 Retweeted @jbarro 02:14:34 I find it hard to tell who's winning in these debates, but professional Republicans who've always hated Trump seem convinced he's losing.
02:15:00 Retweeted @jeffjarvis 02:14:46 "We are the party of diversity." Yes, a diversity of nuts, racists, demagogues, and idiots.
02:15:37 Oh, hello Kasich. Why are you here?
02:16:24 Retweeted @FlitterOnFraud 02:12:07 Whatever he's doing to Trump, Rubio is blowing Cruz out of the water in this debate so far.
02:18:16 I always get lost part way through Carson’s answers because he talks so slowly my attention drifts.
02:19:57 Retweeted @dbernstein 02:19:44 "I don't believe anything Telemundo says" is actually not how you win Hispanic votes Donald.
02:20:09 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 02:19:57 Rubio and Cruz are playing for a convention right now. This isn’t ending the phenomenon, but they’re hoping to weaken it just enough.
02:21:05 Doesn’t believe anything they say, but loves them anyway. Go cognitive dissonance! TRUMP!
02:22:22 Oh, almost an hour in, switching away from immigration?
02:22:39 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 02:22:25 Trump, of course, really does trail by massive margins among Hispanic voters
02:24:26 Retweeted @politicalmath 02:24:16 "Mr Cruz, do you like puppies"
"First of all, I want to say that I have a long history w/ puppies"
[3 hours later]
"and puppies are great"
02:27:29 Now we have a little Trump/Carson conflict, but much more laid back than Trump/Rubio. Even now when Cruz starting to raise his voice.
02:28:23 Did Trump just imply Cruz is a crazy zealot? Ha.
02:28:58 Retweeted @kairyssdal 02:28:46 Observation: Hewitt asked a question about religious liberty of a man who wants to ban everyone from one of the world's major religions.
02:29:15 Retweeted @jimgeraghty 02:27:12 President Trump will only appoint judges who sign the bills.
02:30:15 Trump defending Planned Parenthood again on non-abortion services. In a Republican debate. And it isn’t hurting him at all.
02:30:46 Retweeted @SonnyBunch 02:28:53 Apparently in America there’re bills being signed by Samuel Alito and Donald Trump’s Sister (TM).
02:31:16 When Kasich and Carson are on, it is time to stop for a snack, right?
02:31:35 Retweeted @TheFix 02:31:20 "Can we get a commercial break?" — My bladder.
02:31:52 .@TheFix Isn’t a time Kasich or Carson talks good enough? :-) in reply to TheFix
02:32:31 Retweeted @Max_Fisher 02:26:33 trump got a вЂњreligious libertyвЂќ question that didn’t mention trump wants to ban foreign muslims. religious liberty doesnt apply to muslims.
02:33:27 Retweeted @mollyesque 02:33:12 вЂњThe fruit salad of their life is what I would look at.вЂќ -Ben Carson
02:39:05 Rubio goes after Trump for repeating himself. Ha!
02:39:32 Trump’s answer was indeed going in circles though. And Rubio doubles down! Woo!
02:39:53 Rubio mocking Trump! Finally! This should have happened months ago!
02:40:21 Rubio is right. Trump is just repeating himself. Love it!
02:40:40 Retweeted @TheFix 02:40:25 Rubio smartly exposed Trump's lack of policy depth in that healthcare fight.
02:41:32 Rubio is clearly doing really well tonight. Question is if it is too late.
02:42:06 Retweeted @alexburnsNYT 02:41:55 On the other hand, not many Trump voters are out there saying, "man alive, he's right вЂ“ this guy has no policy ideas!"
02:42:13 Retweeted @ananavarro 02:41:55 In case you missed that last exchange, Trump and Rubio are now debating over who of the 2 repeats themselves more often.
02:42:41 Cruz is almost as not really here as Kasich and Carson.
02:42:51 Retweeted @elonjames 02:42:41 At this point I'm 5 seconds from just writing Michelle Obama in as President.
02:43:21 Retweeted @Redistrict 02:43:08 Was Trump's meltdown a second ago as bad/worse than Rubio's a few weeks ago? Probably. Will it make much difference on 3/1? Probably not.
02:46:46 Wolf bullied by Cruz and the crowd. Folds like a napkin.
02:49:09 OK, Cruz going after Trump now. Trump defending well though.
02:49:46 Wolf should just get out of the way. Let them yell at each other!
02:49:53 Retweeted @fmanjoo 02:49:45 Whether or not people should die on the street вЂ” surprising debate point!
02:50:26 Retweeted @studentactivism 02:50:10 "Can you believe this guy thinks people shouldn't die in the street?" вЂ”Cruz and Rubio, incredulous
02:51:22 Retweeted @mattbai 02:50:20 If Trump were a politician, which he says he's not, I would almost think he has decided to start moving into general election mode.
02:52:08 .@mattbai @PeterNicholas3 He started that move in earnest at the last debate. Accelerates from here on out. Pivot! in reply to mattbai
02:52:24 Retweeted @cathleendecker 02:50:08 Trump: I won't let people die in the streets for lack of health care. Cruz (apparently): Why not?
02:52:40 Retweeted @Yair_Rosenberg 02:49:21 Cruz debates Trump, but Rubio mocks him, and the latter is far more effective. Trump doesn't mind being booed but he hates being laughed at.
02:53:05 Retweeted @kerpen 02:50:21 NEGATIVE 4600 DOLLARS.
https://t.co/ZVVFjYXoRL
02:54:15 Retweeted @EsotericCD 02:52:13 Donald Trump either thinks there's $500 billion worth of "waste, fraud, and abuse" or he realizes most voters dumb enough to think so.
02:57:00 Is Trump complaining about being the center of attention?
02:58:14 Retweeted @kenrudin 02:57:55 Wow, Trump even mocks the "conservative" debate moderator. This is just beyond surreal.
02:58:37 Retweeted @DavidOAtkins 02:58:23 Hillary Dems: Trump won't be a far right candidate. He'll be an anti-corporate corruption, anti-immigrant double-sided populist.
02:59:44 These tax return questions are stupid. Is any voter really going to change their mind because of candidate financials?
03:02:11 Retweeted @imbou 03:01:54 @abulsme watching trump gives me a headache
03:02:19 .@imbou TRUMP!! in reply to imbou
03:03:42 BTW, Clinton vs Trump electoral college estimate based on current state polling: https://t.co/5HpujP6WDn
03:04:15 Retweeted @kittypurrzog 02:08:52 Drink every time you sense the downfall of American civilization #GOPDebate
03:04:23 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 03:04:11 Who votes for this guy? I mean this is just an absolute trainwreck of a person. Give him nukes? Are you crazy?!
03:04:48 My company: VERY VERY LARGE
03:05:05 Oh Wolf, stop about the damn rules.
03:06:07 Oh, and Cruz may be doing better in national polls, but state level he doesn’t look good in the EC right now: https://t.co/FTlBJbgQGa
03:06:43 Retweeted @BenHowe 03:06:19 Man, @realDonaldTrump looks like an idiot tonight. Sure wish it mattered. #GOPDebate
03:10:28 Retweeted @LizMair 03:10:01 Guys, FWIW, we have a ton of opposition research info on Trump's business record. Have tried to shop it, many reporters too scared to use.
03:11:14 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:11:03 Sounds like Trump has been getting some professional advise on how to talk about Israel. Wonder from whom?
03:11:25 Retweeted @mattdpearce 03:11:10 TRUMP: I'm not taking sides. But I am definitely pro-Israel.
03:11:37 Retweeted @JeffreyGoldberg 03:11:23 Trump: "I will not take sides."
"I am totally pro-Israel."
Same breath.
03:12:33 Retweeted @BlogsofWar 03:12:22 Did we just get nuance from Trump? I'm stunned. Confused.
03:15:37 Rubio to Trump: Have you ever negotiated with terrorists?
03:16:08 Retweeted @fmanjoo 03:15:59 It’s literally a dispute over real estate.
03:16:36 Retweeted @MittRomney 03:15:47 No legit reason @realDonaldTrump can't release returns while being audited, but if scared, release earlier returns no longer under audit.
03:17:15 Retweeted @RadioFreeTom 03:17:05 Every Trump answer revolves around magical thinking, ending with "believe me."
#GOPDebate
03:17:38 Retweeted @drvox 03:17:29 Always fun to watch the foreign policy experts in my feed lose their f’ing minds when GOP debates turn to FP.
03:17:58 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:17:44 I think Kasich is about to talk about North Korea Fight Club, guys. And you know the rule about Fight Club.
03:18:23 Retweeted @TVietor08 03:16:00 Rubio is repeatedly referring to the Palestinian Authority as terrorists.
03:18:29 Retweeted @natsecHeather 03:18:17 Suffering is redemptive, they said… https://t.co/zMs89ZBZTf
03:20:43 Retweeted @Bencjacobs 03:20:28 Ben Carson announces "I am going to whine"
03:22:01 Retweeted @SaraMurray 03:20:54 "This is your moment" вЂ“ Blitzer's gonna blitz, man #GOPDebate
03:23:24 I use Carson talking time to try to write a little bit more on my post on Ohio general election polls I need to get out after the debateвЂ¦
03:25:30 Retweeted @ananavarro 03:25:20 Dear Tweeps, How about we each commit to buy a Ben Carson book in exchange for him going back to Florida to get clean clothes?
03:26:31 Trump: We would be better off with Kadaffi and Hussein. (I actually kind of agree, but wow, he said it out loud!)
03:30:13 Retweeted @SonnyBunch 03:27:27 Rubio and Cruz are crushing Trump at literally every turn.
I presume this means Trump’s polls are going to go up 15 points.
03:30:29 Carson: Can somebody attack me please? Awesome.
03:32:33 Retweeted @RogersBase 03:12:12 Closed captioning gave up. #GOPDebate https://t.co/stK6frQSvc
03:32:46 Retweeted @davidgregory 03:32:27 Trump answers attacks w "choke artist" and "liar" "ratings" "polls" and "deals"
03:34:10 Had an Alex attack the last few minutes. Did I miss anything good?
03:35:12 This is just chaos. Love it.
03:35:31 Retweeted @owillis 03:35:13 oh my god the republican party is dead
03:35:51 Apple question. Be ready for total ignorance from everybody on stage.
03:37:51 Retweeted @joshuatopolsky 03:37:37 Rubio knows his tech. He’s always down at the Radio Shack checking out the new RC cars.
03:38:12 Retweeted @Sultanknish 03:37:35 it's funny how CNN moderators just double down on their prepared question even when they have no clue
03:38:28 Retweeted @pbump 03:38:20 An actual encryption expert on the Apple thing: "Make no mistake; this is what a backdoor looks like.вЂќ https://t.co/Dg19KGE5g9 in reply to pbump
03:38:52 Retweeted @cbellantoni 03:33:48 Graham: "My party has gone bat-shit crazy." #wpcfdinner https://t.co/28wbvsWSt0
03:40:26 Graham says the party has gone bat-shit crazy. When do elected R’s start publicly saying they will not support Trump? Time to split party?
03:41:21 Retweeted @FearDept 03:40:50 No #GOPdebate candidate is on Apple's side. They all want Apple to make citizens' communications less secure and easier for us to spy on.
03:41:44 Retweeted @kalebhorton 03:39:19 This is Wolf Blitzer. This will always be Wolf Blitzer. https://t.co/EqpZ54qbBV
03:42:34 Puerto Rico question. You paying attention @imbou?
03:43:36 Retweeted @frankthorpNBC 03:39:52 Sen Graham at the #WPCFDinner: "If you kill Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial is at the Senate, no one will convict you."
03:44:24 Retweeted @imbou 03:44:08 @abulsme just switched back to listen to this. Puerto Rico is fucked, bankruptcy is the only route, Rubio is wrong, all governors sucked in reply to abulsme
03:46:09 Retweeted @seanmdav 03:30:43 Trump insults Cruz and Rubio, so guess what Wolf Blitzer did? Just guess. Yep. That's right. He kicked it over to John Kasich.
03:47:27 Retweeted @byjoelanderson 03:47:16 I'm so old, I remember when everyone thought Al Gore was a jerk for sighing while George Bush was talking during one debate.
03:48:36 Closing statements!
03:50:21 Retweeted @Redistrict 03:48:54 Btw, if you're not following Josh Putnam @FHQ, you should be if you want to understand the nuances/intricacies of delegate selection.
03:51:29 Retweeted @imbou 03:51:17 @abulsme @rebliv mr wolf, mr wolf!!!
03:52:39 Closing thoughts on debate: The others finally got some good hits in on Trump, but too little, too late. Changes nothing. Trump wins.
03:54:10 OK, doing some other things for a bit before getting back to https://t.co/51XLs2CICt updates and putting together the podcast. Fun debate!
04:00:56 Retweeted @kenrudin 04:00:03 Thanks CNN for having Trump on immediately after the debate, allowing him to filibuster, just in case he didn't get enough time earlier.
04:01:39 Retweeted @imbou 04:01:31 @abulsme Donald'd tax return explanation is just ridiculous!
04:02:22 .@imbou Eh, no one cares. You think being ridiculous is a turn off for Trump voters? in reply to imbou
04:03:58 Retweeted @imbou 04:03:33 @abulsme no… Those assholes don't carr in reply to abulsme
04:11:32 Retweeted @justinamash 03:43:14 These candidates are dangerously wrong on Apple. Must defend privacy/safety of Americans. Thx, @tim_cook, for doing what politicians won't.
04:42:07 Retweeted @AndrewKirell 03:57:33 This 30-second clip of insults and unintelligible yelling is all you really need to see to understand the #GOPDebate https://t.co/isNPZeLAg8
05:53:00 Retweeted @dick_nixon 02:28:13 My God, please, this won't finish Trump. Pay attention. in reply to dick_nixon
06:59:59 [Abulpost] Electoral College: With new Ohio polls, Rubio and Cruz improve vs Clinton https://t.co/Jo88uldQkA
15:11:09 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 08:24:40 @abulsme https://t.co/HMPFeJGzIW
16:49:05 Retweeted @mattmfm 16:17:53 Trump leads in polls today:
Virginia +23
Mass +21
Florida +20
Mich +24
Illinois +17
16:50:31 Retweeted @_cingraham 16:44:23 Likely GOP primary voters: Trump won the debate, per @INJO / Google survey https://t.co/pSAVvRrHaD https://t.co/QScHAdSh1r
16:53:40 Yup. -> Nope, Sorry, Trump Had a Very Good Night (Josh Marshall) https://t.co/018GBglGlA
16:57:55 Reading – Your Letters Helped Challenger Shuttle Engineer Shed 30 Years Of Guilt (NPR) https://t.co/vMVeFlGNSZ
16:58:30 Retweeted @_Jon_Green 16:48:52 "who won the debate?" is a great way to rephrase "who are you voting for?" https://t.co/tGbwsG6SLy
16:59:24 .@_Jon_Green @_cingraham Yup. Need to actually watch for movement in the overall polls to see who really вЂњwonвЂќ. I suspect no big changes. in reply to _Jon_Green
16:59:55 Retweeted @ananavarro 16:49:07 GOP primary now includes attack lines from the major contenders on lying, sweating, choking, and pant-wetting. I'm not making this up.
17:03:24 Ummm -> Man attempts to cross the Alps wearing prosthetic hooves (David Leveille) https://t.co/8eOE09DSHf
17:09:45 Btw, podcast recorded 36 hours ago or so, but I haven’t had a chance to put it out yet. Probably tonight.
17:17:08 Retweeted @PoliticoKevin 16:45:38 Republicans figure out you must mock Trump to defeat him: https://t.co/heAatdgzLL
Only five years after Obama did: https://t.co/CIJcKVnRll
17:38:28 Reading – To Stop Trump, A Rubio/Kasich Ticket, and Justice Cruz (Guy Benson) https://t.co/sV7gHiXOOn
17:44:40 Retweeted @dennisrodman 15:52:55 Yes @tedcruz; @realdonaldtrump did fire me on Celebrity Apprentice. But he's about to fire your ass too! #MakeAmericaGreatAgain
17:48:22 Retweeted @MileHighBrendan 17:15:10 .@realDonaldTrump should NOT read my new @storify. I use some bad words. They might offend his gentle constitution. https://t.co/t7vyZDh0hN
17:48:58 Retweeted @SopanDeb 17:47:53 Trump arrives. press conference starting. Chris Christie is here with him.
17:49:02 Retweeted @maggieNYT 17:44:11 Trump announcement actually will be major
17:49:14 Retweeted @SopanDeb 17:48:00 Christie standing behind Trump.
17:49:41 Retweeted @DanielLarison 17:49:34 If Christie is endorsing Trump, he must have accepted that his political career is over
17:50:15 .@DanielLarison Nope. Expects spot in Trump cabinet. Or VP. in reply to DanielLarison
17:50:26 Retweeted @jdhenchman 17:49:02 Christie endorses Trump
17:50:38 Retweeted @INJO 17:49:55 Breaking: @ChrisChristie endorses @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/5V4kp9tdJH
17:51:03 Retweeted @TheFix 17:50:01 "I am proud to be here to endorse Donald Trump for president of the United States." — Chris Christie. Remarkable.
17:51:16 Retweeted @pbump 17:50:06 in case you were wondering how trump would say f.u. to rubio after last night in reply to pbump
17:51:20 Retweeted @eliotnelson 17:49:56 Holy shit Chris Christie must really hate Marco Rubio
17:53:15 Retweeted @daveweigel 17:53:03 I literally said "WTF" out loud at this Christie news. The words, not the acronym. Anyone else?
17:53:18 Retweeted @AlexJamesFitz 17:53:04 Trump/Christie 2016: Bridging the Gap
17:53:30 Retweeted @joshuatopolsky 17:53:13 We're fucking doomed
17:53:53 Retweeted @NoahCRothman 17:34:05 If it's a Christie endorsement, say goodbye to the Rubio news cycle. Maybe even the momentum from last night.
17:54:18 Retweeted @TheFix 17:53:48 We are through the looking glass here people.
17:54:23 Retweeted @ThusBloggedA 17:52:41 .@owillis the Joker AND the Penguin. Holy moly, Gotham is in trouble now. in reply to owillis
17:55:28 Retweeted @_cingraham 17:55:17 The Party DМ¶eМ¶cМ¶iМ¶dМ¶eМ¶sМ¶ YOLO
17:55:52 Retweeted @KStreetHipster 2016-02-25 02:58:32 Chris Christie will endorse Trump right before the March 1 elections. #WriteThatDown
17:59:19 For the record, I told @imbou that my current R odds are: 70% outright Trump win, 20% contested convention, 10% someone else outright win.
18:00:05 Retweeted @costareports 17:59:47 Christie's endorsement is a major moment for Trump. A sitting governor, a ready attack dog, a link to party elites
18:01:15 Retweeted @dceiver 18:01:06 just when Marco Rubio was starting to have some fun
18:02:58 Retweeted @politicalmath 18:02:49 Well played, @ChrisChristie https://t.co/feN7Htrfzs
18:03:30 Retweeted @ktumulty 18:01:26 Time for some traffic problems in the GOP establishment lane.
18:06:36 Retweeted @nancyayoussef 17:52:47 Overheard at the Pentagon, from a man in uniform watching Christie endorse Trump: "Is the UK taking applicants?"
23:31:21 Retweeted @270toWin 22:57:29 Updated Clinton vs. Trump electoral map (based on polls) https://t.co/7X0HuDYDUK https://t.co/lcF9JDAtpX
23:32:33 .@270toWin You can get a better sense by using previous election data averages where new polling not available: https://t.co/5HpujP6WDn in reply to 270toWin
23:35:03 .@270toWin Even tho there haven’t been Clinton vs Trump polls in Wyoming (for instance) it looks pretty solid red unless proven otherwise. in reply to abulsme
23:47:28 Retweeted @imbou 23:47:03 @abulsme <symbol> in reply to abulsme

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-25 (UTC)

17:46:44 Retweeted @imbou 17:15:45 @abulsme why does it seem that all Trump supporters have like 40 year old keyboards that only support all caps?!
17:47:19 .@imbou It is their KEYBOARDS!? That explains everything! in reply to imbou
21:51:35 Reading – How America Made Donald Trump Unstoppable (Matt Taibbi) cc @imbou https://t.co/viB5wJrzgr
22:14:08 Retweeted @matthewjdowd 20:44:10 So Trump is now polling at 41% in VA; 45% in GA; and 44% in FL; and just got 46% in NV Caucus. Tell me again about his 33% ceiling.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-02-24 (UTC)

03:18:40 Retweeted @imbou 03:17:51 Live republican caucus video https://t.co/tZYE8Uircf
03:55:53 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 03:55:41 WE HAVE A SOMETHING https://t.co/BTXXzKGAoX
03:56:22 Retweeted @sahilkapur 03:55:56 FWIW campaigns not reporting widespread irregularities on the record. If/when there’s a critical mass they’ll be screaming from the rooftops
03:59:24 Retweeted @BrettLoGiurato 03:30:11 CNN reporter: вЂњThe Cruz campaign is telling me they’ll be happy with a third-place win.вЂќ
Third-place win
03:59:43 Retweeted @NickBaumann 03:59:30 Are you guys saying that this has been a particularly…. raucous caucus?
03:59:51 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 03:59:42 Gut tells me that lead won't hold. But hey, it's a number people! Someone made it out alive long enough to report!
04:00:08 Retweeted @AG_Conservative 03:52:03 I don't trust Trump supporters to collect/count ballots. I'd also prefer they skipped voting. Have concerns about them procreating too.
04:02:41 Retweeted @JesseLaGreca 04:02:28 Jesus Fucking Christ, Republicans.
Seriously, for the sake of our country and for your own sake, get a fucking hold of yourselves
04:05:21 Retweeted @NickyWoolf 04:04:19 BREAKING: At this point the decision desk is ready to call the Nevada republican caucuses for a 1975 chevrolet chevelle that is on fire
04:08:26 Retweeted @ditzkoff 04:05:59 Oh. https://t.co/udJQu7e7B8 https://t.co/1IQYuuukla
04:12:28 Retweeted @gabrielmalor 03:33:20 RT @NVGOP There have been no official reports of voting irregularities or violations. #nvgopcaucus https://t.co/PDn6YEEXUs
04:14:37 Retweeted @nickconfessore 04:10:55 Expectations primary, Nevada edition:
1st Place: YOU LOSE
2nd Place: Expectations Primary Winner.
3rd Place: ACTUAL WINNER.
06:30:24 Retweeted @DrewMTips 06:28:43 Trump at 46% in a 5 man field.
So, this "hard ceiling" you speak of. Please, tell me more.
06:30:31 Retweeted @EdEspinoza 06:29:10 Nevada ends with Trump finishing 46 to Rubio's 23. Trump lapped Rubio.
06:34:00 Retweeted @MarkHalperin 05:48:48 Perfectly exemplifies race: Trump declared winner & 4 minutes apart, Kasich & Cruz send emails to press w/ attacks on..Rubio! #TrumpClassic
06:39:02 Retweeted @EdgeofSports 05:13:04 News networks are talking about all the reasons Donald Trump is winning without saying "racism." It's unsaid. And deafening.
06:45:10 Retweeted @sahilkapur 06:09:31 I think Democrats underestimate Trump’s ability to win a general election in the same way Republicans have in the primary. Just saying.
06:45:45 Retweeted @GoldyHA 06:22:00 Looks like we're in for a months long contest between Cruz and Rubio to determine who will come in second place to Trump. Exciting!
06:52:45 Retweeted @JesseLaGreca 06:21:40 And this didn't happen by accident. Republicans have spent 40 yrs cultivating the stupid, racist, gullible rubes, now they've taken over
07:15:34 Btw, despite winner call counting in Nevada is really slow. Waiting a bit before posting preliminary delegates on https://t.co/5PiqiPJmjk.
07:16:58 In the mean time, look to GreenPapers for NV delegates: https://t.co/LfkdEkcct2
07:17:15 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 07:06:15 22% of precincts are reporting. 22%. It's 11pm in Nevada and 2am in the east.
16:03:22 [Abulpost] Republicans: Trump wins Nevada, plus a look at Super Tuesday https://t.co/ngLE8O3hKg
17:14:23 Reading – It's Over (Stephen Green) https://t.co/QVNUr9wIXG
18:15:58 Reading – Why Trump could be tougher in general election than you think (Paul Waldman) https://t.co/uhlPanf9XK
19:27:45 Retweeted @7im 19:22:53 trump will run to Hillary's left and right. it's gonna be super weird.
21:36:55 Retweeted @realDonaldTrump 21:36:35 The polls show that I picked up many Jeb Bush supporters. That is how I got to 46%. When others drop out, I will pick up more. Sad but true
23:43:07 Retweeted @moonwalkmcfly 06:05:32 I would like to apologize to the writers of Superman comics for calling the Lex Luthor becoming president storyline "so fucking unrealistic"

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