- 00:03:50 Retweeted @NPSusa 2016-02-01 23:58:56 That's it. Now we wait for Iowa voters to throw banana peels in the path of all these pollsters &predictors.
- 00:05:39 Retweeted @poniewozik 00:05:29 Only minutes until the first Iowa caucusgoer is placed under the first Sorting Hat.
- 00:06:38 Retweeted @SarcasticRover 00:06:30 Remember: Picking a poor candidate from a seemingly random selection of horrible people is every American’s right.
- 01:26:43 I texted @imbou a couple days ago about how the last minute polls were showing a Rubio surge. We shall see! #rubiomentum
- 01:26:58 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 01:24:55 This would be terrible news for Cruz and even worse news for my earlier predictions. #IowaCaucus https://t.co/sd2qYa3HxN
- 01:28:37 I have https://t.co/uNoTyDEwPo up. Enjoy your evening @B_M_Finnigan! :-)
- 01:29:00 Retweeted @Marshall_Cohen 01:28:01 CNN ENTRANCE POLLS (estimates)
Trump 27%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 21%
Carson 9%
https://t.co/HLSvbcprfo - 01:34:27 Retweeted @rebagreenpapers 01:19:25 Networks are (seriously!) projecting "Martin O'Malley 3rd in Dem #IowaCaucus"… uh… ya think?! LOL #iacaucus
- 01:34:47 Retweeted @RodrigoEBR 01:34:39 CNN entrance poll: Clinton 50%, Sanders 44%
- 01:35:07 Retweeted @guypbenson 01:34:54 Take ALL entrance poll data with giant fistfuls of salt. #IowaCaucus
- 01:37:59 First real numbers up at https://t.co/ZGa2giKcdw. It begins!
- 01:43:25 Retweeted @KevinBarryCBS2 01:40:05 Moderator asks room for a surrogate speaker for @JebBush. In room of 700, no one raised their hand. Audible gasps. #IaCaucus
- 01:50:56 Watching results come in is exciting. :-)
- 01:57:28 Clinton lead looking pretty stable as results come in. Trump/Cruz going back and forth. Interesting.
- 02:00:44 I’ll be waiting until things are pretty much wrapped up late tonight before updating delegate estimates at https://t.co/5PiqiQ0XaS.
- 02:07:46 With current results R Dels would be Cruz 8, Trump 8, Rubio 4, Carson 3, Paul, Bush, Kasich, Fiorina 1 each. Lots of counting yet though.
- 02:11:11 Retweeted @rrfrump1 02:10:40 @abulsme No Christie! Oh no. in reply to abulsme
- 02:11:26 .@rrfrump1 I know it makes you so sad! in reply to rrfrump1
- 02:16:52 Retweeted @BYUfan 02:16:35 @abulsme who should I follow if I want to see the latest election results as they come in?
- 02:18:02 .@BYUfan I’ve been looking at https://t.co/1YBfS4VwIv but they actually seem to be a bit behind the networks at the moment. in reply to BYUfan
- 02:19:57 Retweeted @natsecHeather 02:19:45 All glory to my cousin @abulsme who is live-tweeting caucus results, enabling me to keep up while I mediate my kid skyping with his dad.
- 02:20:10 .@natsecHeather Aw shucks. :-) in reply to natsecHeather
- 02:22:32 Retweeted @BYUfan 02:19:56 .@abulsme college admissions? Huh? in reply to abulsme
- 02:23:34 .@BYUfan Grr. Autocorrect should leave URLs alone. https://t.co/i7t0IPvncz in reply to BYUfan
- 02:24:14 Retweeted @costareports 02:24:07 25% in: Cruz 29.9%, Trump 26.8%, Rubio 18.9%
- 02:25:22 Slight Cruz lead has been holding a while now. May lead to delegate tie if close enough, but winner by even one vote gets all the glory.
- 02:27:20 Retweeted @BYUfan 02:26:53 @abulsme I figured it was a snafu. <symbol> in reply to abulsme
- 02:29:08 .@BYUfan Of course, finding Chrome completely mangling the “spectrum” view on my site that had been fine until now. Nice timing. Grrr… in reply to BYUfan
- 02:36:10 Retweeted @natsecHeather 02:31:17 @abulsme Said kid is agonizing between Clinton and Sanders. I considered live-tweeting but decided against. in reply to abulsme
- 02:36:52 .@natsecHeather It isn’t quite as rapidly moving as some other things that can be live tweeted. Lots of waiting for counting. :-) in reply to natsecHeather
- 02:36:56 Retweeted @BYUfan 02:35:53 .@abulsme that's Murphy for ya. <symbol> in reply to abulsme
- 02:37:51 .@BYUfan Looks like a Chrome update from about 5 days ago did it. For the moment, I’ll have to add code dumping Chrome users to column view. in reply to BYUfan
- 02:45:21 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 02:41:26 We project that Ted Cruz has won the 2016 Iowa Caucus.
- 02:48:17 Added temporary https://t.co/ksasUpV7oq fix to dump Chrome users to the column view since most recent update broke spectrum view.
- 02:48:47 Hope Chrome fixes it soon, not sure if I can figure out change to bring it back if they don’t. :-)
- 02:48:57 Retweeted @B_M_Finnigan 02:48:42 After calling the race for Cruz I don't want to read my mentions…
- 02:49:29 .@B_M_Finnigan Close to a call on the Dem side? in reply to B_M_Finnigan
- 02:51:20 Looks like about 44% of visits to my site are on Chrome, so Chrome matters a lot. Grrr! I like Spectrum view!
- 02:52:52 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 02:52:43 We also project that Hillary Clinton is the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus.
- 02:53:41 Looks like Clinton and Cruz for the night. Next question is delegate estimates. That will take a bit longer.
- 02:58:58 O’Malley dropping out! Shocker! Thought he might wait for New Hampshire. Guess not. Shrug.
- 02:59:15 Retweeted @natsecHeather 02:58:11 good moment to recall that u&I both descend fm NY/VT politician, Silas Wright, who was invited to run for VP&said no https://t.co/W02KQGDaLe
- 03:02:54 The Green Papers has been down for about an hour now. Makes me sad. Hopefully up again soon!
- 03:04:08 Retweeted @imbou 03:03:26 @abulsme #rubiomentum looks strong he is within a couple of points of Trump! in reply to abulsme
- 03:06:24 .@DecisionDeskHQ making calls nobody else willing to make yet. We’ll see soon if they were premature or not. :-)
- 03:16:31 Clinton lead shrinking as vote comes in. Networks may have been right to hold off on call a bit.
- 03:19:06 Rubio now down only 1% from Trump. 97% reporting.
- 03:19:35 Retweeted @chucktodd 03:19:22 We have 97% of GOP vote in. Cruz up 28-24 over Trump. But Rubio is just 2200 votes behind Trump and is at 23%
- 03:19:53 Retweeted @gabbilevy 02:49:22 Wow. This picture tells a story. #iacaucus https://t.co/aDoLfELGjp
- 03:20:31 Retweeted @brendanloy 03:20:02 If Bernie loses by 1%, he will have been screwed by Iowa Dems not reporting raw vote totals. Diminishes impact of concentrated college towns
- 03:20:33 Retweeted @DylanByers 03:19:13 “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare tonight appears to be Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz’s best gift tonight appears to be Marco Rubio” — @DanaBashCNN
- 03:22:41 Retweeted @KatyTurNBC 03:22:24 breaking: NBC projects Ted Cruz wins Iowa
- 03:24:00 Retweeted @GrahamDavidA 03:22:54 Oh good, another chance for us all to say that Trump is over. That hasn't been wrong before.
- 03:24:24 Retweeted @speechboy71 03:23:49 This Trump concession speech … I can barely contain my excitement
- 03:25:33 .@imbou thinks Trump will go nuts & damage his chances when he makes a statement about losing. I’m thinking he can avoid a Dean moment. :-)
- 03:26:00 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 03:25:40 Clinton's lead is just 0.8 percentage points with 84% of precincts reporting…
- 03:26:13 Clinton lead keeps shrinking…
- 03:31:37 Clinton/Sanders looks like a del tie. Sanders needed 24 of 44 dels to be on pace to catch Clinton. 22 won’t do it. https://t.co/V9ZSBIGwMN
- 03:31:42 Huckster out.
- 03:32:31 Oops, accidentally killed spectrum view for all browsers due to how my caching works. Fixing…
- 03:34:27 Retweeted @imbou 03:34:19 Now that Huckabee suspended his campaign I wonder when Santorum will pledge his 1 percent support to someone else…
- 03:34:48 Clinton lead down to 0.6%. Wow.
- 03:38:01 Rubio declaring victory for coming in 3rd (or 2nd). #Rubiomentum!
- 03:40:00 Retweeted @HawkinsUSA 03:39:44 Your polling victor? @EmersonPolling
Within 3 points of Trump, 2 for Cruz, 1 for Rubio.
Your loser? Everyone else. Selzer missed by 3/5/8 - 03:41:06 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 03:41:00 Clinton falls under 50.0% for the first time I've seen… 49.9% to 49.4%. 87% still in.
- 03:41:34 Retweeted @JustinWolfers 03:41:21 Jeb!'s campaign spent $15 million on advertising in Iowa.
He's on track to get 5,000-ish votes
≈ $3,000 per voter. - 03:42:00 Retweeted @CBSPolitics 03:39:24 UPDATE: Estimated delegates following GOP #IAcaucus: https://t.co/spxYKThj2R https://t.co/BQfu7g5kWL
- 03:44:06 Retweeted @JohnJHarwood 03:42:48 will be very interesting to see how much air leaks out of that Trump balloon, and how fast
- 03:44:46 Looking forward to the first post-Iowa New Hampshire polls!
- 03:51:44 Trump on! Lets see if @imbou is right about him self destructing now. :-) He loves Iowa!
- 03:53:03 Retweeted @owillis 03:52:53 limpest trump ever.
the thrill is gone. - 03:53:55 Retweeted @busblog 03:53:43 CNN is saying Trump lost. Fucker was 4 points away from winning Iowa after acting a fool in his 1st election ever. I say he won.
- 03:54:02 Retweeted @JohnEkdahl 03:53:54 Low energy loser speech
- 03:54:15 Retweeted @RaniaKhalek 03:54:09 0.2% and counting https://t.co/8RTSOnkbfp https://t.co/JZTYJZqN0Q
- 03:54:54 Clinton margin down to 0.2%. Tension builds!
- 03:58:09 Active users on https://t.co/51XLs2CICt soaring. Most people looking at Clinton vs Cruz race. https://t.co/FTlBJbgQGa
- 04:04:38 Retweeted @brikeilarcnn 04:04:26 Clinton aides declaring victory though results still not final. It's a squeaker of a race on the Dem side in Iowa.
- 04:04:51 Retweeted @Danielle2671 04:04:16 @morningmoneyben @pqpolitics https://t.co/HJN1XutXIj in reply to morningmoneyben
- 04:05:02 Retweeted @DKElections 04:04:51 In 2012, GOP didn't finish counting until 2 AM ET (and even then got it wrong). Let's hope Dems count faster tonight #iacaucus
- 04:09:07 Retweeted @allahpundit 04:08:50 CRUZ SAVED CONSERVATISM (for the next eight days)
- 04:09:14 Retweeted @DKElections 04:09:06 91% in and Hillary up 0.4%. Been between .2 and .4 for last few batches, but counting has really slowed #iacaucus
- 04:09:21 Retweeted @MichaelSkolnik 04:09:11 Larry David is hosting SNL this Saturday Night! #FeelTheBern https://t.co/XOJBWgZbNG
- 04:09:32 Retweeted @WakeUp2Politics 04:09:16 With 91% precincts reporting: Cruz 27.6%, Trump 24.3%, Rubio 23.1%, Carson 9.3%, Paul 4.5%, Bush 2.8%, Kasich/Fiorina 1.9% #iacaucus
- 04:11:29 Retweeted @nick_ayers 04:10:01 TVs starting to turn off in NH/SC. Ratings dropping. Candidates named Bernie and Ted not speaking yet = insane.
- 04:12:52 Retweeted @NumbersMuncher 04:12:36 As of right now, how the Dem side performed relative to the final polls:
Hillary 49.8 (+1.9)
Sanders 49.5 (+5.6)Strong close for Sanders..
- 04:15:16 Retweeted @Redistrict 03:35:05 Reality check: Iowa tie = a Hillary win. For Bernie to be "on track" for Dem nod, he'd need to win IA two-to-one. https://t.co/ETUvvnVsrG
- 04:16:11 .@Redistrict Not quite 2-1. I had him needing 24 of the 44 dels to be on track. https://t.co/MZrA9dFRue https://t.co/V9ZSBIGwMN in reply to Redistrict
- 04:17:46 Retweeted @imbou 03:27:20 @abulsme whatever in reply to abulsme
- 04:19:22 Cruz starting to talk.
- 04:23:35 .@Redistrict My 24 of 44 is just based on the raw numbers of course, not the demographic weighting you did. So understand 2-1 you give. :-) in reply to abulsme
- 04:24:01 Retweeted @imbou 04:23:01 @abulsme can it end already? in reply to abulsme
- 04:24:43 .@imbou Nope. 280 days until Election Day! :-) in reply to imbou
- 04:24:49 Retweeted @imbou 04:23:52 @abulsme at least he's not talking about polls! in reply to abulsme
- 04:26:46 Retweeted @AceofSpadesHQ 04:26:29 Good speech. Let me compare this to reagan. Reagan didn't talk about himself; he talked about you, about America.
- 04:28:55 Retweeted @AriFleischer 04:28:45 Serious protocol violation for Hillary to come out while another candidate is speaking. Not that there is any protocol in politics.
- 04:29:03 Retweeted @jesseberney 04:28:48 Haha Clinton interrupting Cruz, what a fucking power move.
- 04:29:31 Retweeted @nycjim 04:29:22 Hillary Clinton calls it “an unbelievable night.” But no one has called the outcome, and she’s barely leading. #IowaCaucus
- 04:29:55 Cruz is going on quite a bit. I’m ready for him to be done. We can switch to Clinton now.
- 04:30:00 Retweeted @imbou 04:29:48 @abulsme well they cut away from Cruz for Hillary, they did him a favor, any more of that awful speech he would lose 5 points in the polls in reply to imbou
- 04:31:12 Watching Google Analytics on https://t.co/51XLs2CICt while a big election night event is happening is fun. Nice traffic spikes.
- 04:31:35 Bummed about the Chrome issue though. :-/
- 04:32:55 Clinton seems excited.
- 04:36:16 Retweeted @imbou 04:36:06 @abulsme that was a great speech by Hillary! in reply to abulsme
- 04:36:31 .@imbou You rarely see her quite this animated. in reply to imbou
- 04:36:45 Retweeted @ron_fournier 04:36:07 Clinton's call for unity to defeat GOP can be translated into: "Fall out of love with Bernie. Unite behind me."
- 04:36:52 Retweeted @chrisgeidner 04:36:38 Clinton is off the stage. Cruz is still going.
- 04:37:06 Will they switch back to Cruz now?
- 04:38:41 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 04:38:22 Back down 0.2 percentage points on the Dem side… Some of that be U of Northern Iowa reporting…
- 04:40:17 Sanders speech next.
- 04:40:42 Retweeted @chrislhayes 04:40:33 Latest #
Clinton: 655
Sanders: 652<symbol>
- 04:49:39 Sanders out.
- 04:49:57 Uh, I mean talking now. Not dropping out. :-)
- 04:50:54 Retweeted @JamColley 04:25:37 once again, Bernie Sanders is set to have his day ruined by the 1%
- 04:51:05 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 04:50:51 We really have no idea who really 'won' Iowa on the Democratic side, given the delegate math, O'Malley supporters, rounding rules, etc.
- 04:52:53 Retweeted @ellencarmichael 04:52:23 Fox News cut away from Cruz for Bernie Sanders. That’s all you need to know.
- 04:55:52 Retweeted @DavidCornDC 04:55:37 The two weeks after NH will be a very tough stretch for ClintonLand.
- 04:56:02 Retweeted @ABCPolitics 04:54:56 JUST IN: ABC News declares Iowa Democratic caucus too close to project. #IowaCaucus
- 04:56:55 Retweeted @BuzzFeedNews 04:56:35 Sanders: "You guys ready for a radical idea?”
[the crowd cheers]
"Yeah? Well, so is America" https://t.co/S52ocOys1C in reply to BuzzFeedNews
- 04:59:23 Retweeted @AriMelber 04:59:04 Trump did lead many reliable Iowa polls — maybe skipping the last debate in the state, over a squabble with a moderator, didn't play well.
- 05:00:17 Not sure I buy the debate thing being the reason for Trump underperformance. Seems GOTV might be more important.
- 05:02:09 I think @TheGreenPapers server may be on fire or something. :-) Hope it comes back soon! cc @rebagreenpapers
- 05:03:24 Retweeted @brendanloy 05:03:08 Is media basically declaring Dem race a tie? Good. Right way to think about. Tenths of a % of “state delegate equivalents” aren’t meaningful
- 05:04:51 Retweeted @jbview 05:04:33 Biggest loser tonight: Prediction markets. Much bigger loser than pollsters, IMO.
- 05:05:04 Retweeted @anamariecox 05:04:53 Maddow notes that Sanders gave the 4th victory speech of the night.
- 05:06:37 With all the victory speeches done, going to take a break for dinner and to play with my mostly patient son before updating delegate totals.
- 05:09:43 Retweeted @TeddyDavisCNN 05:08:54 Iowa Dem Party says there are 90 precincts w/ no results — 5 % of precincts — most likely we won't have results tonight. #IowaCaucus
- 05:12:11 Retweeted @AP_Politics 05:07:38 The Latest: Clinton gets at least half of Iowa delegates: https://t.co/1zaUjv25ud
- 05:32:04 Reading – Here's Why Polls Got The Republican Caucus Wrong (Ariel Edwards-Levy) https://t.co/hs46kYE7o7 cc @imbou
- 05:41:46 Retweeted @mikeyface 05:35:25 Gilmore, a GOP candidate who not-surprisingly I don’t know who they are, got 12 votes in Iowa. 12 https://t.co/okEgsvH9zg
- 05:45:30 Retweeted @Nate_Cohn 04:57:54 2-to-1 is too high, but he clearly can't run behind Obama among white vtrs when he's going to lose nonwhite vtrs https://t.co/303EurnDCa
- 05:48:57 .@Nate_Cohn @brendanloy Based on just catching up to superdel lead, not demographics, Sanders needed 24/44 dels. https://t.co/V9ZSBIGwMN in reply to Nate_Cohn
- 05:51:09 Retweeted @SonnyBunch 05:36:22 MSNBC is currently explaining how Hillary Clinton is literally only winning because of the luck of coin flips.
- 05:57:53 Retweeted @desmoinesdem 05:37:33 MSNBC is completely wrong. The coin flip settled 1 COUNTY DELEGATE in several precincts. Clinton's ahead by a few STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS
- 05:58:05 Retweeted @DKElections 05:56:24 48 precincts left Hillary up .2%. 9 in Polk, 4 in Black Hawk, 3 in Woodbury, rest look very scattered #iacaucus
- 06:00:27 Retweeted @MattGibstein 05:33:21 https://t.co/puu2BYeCUy
- 06:13:12 Starting 2 update delegate totals on https://t.co/51XLs2CICt. Using WaPo estimates since
TheGreenPapers still down. https://t.co/VlU5XWerKh - 06:29:27 Retweeted @chrislhayes 2016-01-21 20:19:10 This campaign is starting to feel more and more like a long, national nervous breakdown.
- 06:46:00 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 06:45:43 Clinton's lead just went up to 0.3 percentage points, and I have no idea why. Fantastic counting and reporting going on…
- 06:53:10 Retweeted @gdebenedetti 06:51:37 Big part of Team Clinton point tonight: how can Sanders win nationwide if it was so close in a state that's more or less built for him?
- 06:55:35 Retweeted @brendanloy 06:54:58 I told the girls I'd leave them a note with the results. https://t.co/7zhshLB0nt
- 06:55:58 .@brendanloy No delegate estimates on the board? That’s what counts in the end after all. :-) in reply to brendanloy
- 07:08:59 Retweeted @NYDailyNews 06:33:52 Stop the presses! A new front page…
DEAD CLOWN WALKING: https://t.co/WwqZSN0nBn https://t.co/ZpoZ1Wvpzj - 07:36:56 TheGreenPapers is up again. Switching to their delegate estimates now… in reply to abulsme
- 07:38:57 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 07:35:34 Who is still up refreshing the pages, waiting on those last ten precincts?
- 08:38:47 Retweeted @BuzzFeedNews 08:38:05 State delegate equivalents awarded tonight, per Iowa Democratic Party:
Clinton: 699.57
Sanders: 695.49
O'Malley: 7.68
Pending: 2.28 in reply to BuzzFeedNews - 08:43:37 Retweeted @JamilSmith 08:42:20 Hillary Clinton is projected as the “apparent winner” of the Iowa Democratic caucus, per @MSNBC. It’s the closest win in caucus history.
- 08:44:03 Retweeted @Bencjacobs 08:41:46 At 2:30 in the morning, the Democratic candidate with every conceivable institutional advantage declares victory over the socialist gadfly
- 09:11:43 [Abulpost] Democrats: Sanders Iowa Tie is a Clinton Win https://t.co/SctncfQ6YG
- 10:42:52 Retweeted @DecisionDeskHQ 10:23:34 Good morning!
We are now 7 days away from the New Hampshire primary,
18 from South Carolina,
21 from Nevada,
and 28 from the SEC primary. - 10:43:08 [Abulpost] Republicans: Three Way Race out of Iowa https://t.co/1rlyPzqXET
- 10:45:05 Retweeted @MorningEdition 10:44:38 Sanders did much better than Clinton w/ young voters but acc to exit polls, young people didn't turn out in as large numbers as older voters
- 16:53:08 cc @imbou -> How pollsters got Iowa wrong (Steven Shepard) https://t.co/GU6PzEdKE8
- 16:55:30 On last week’s CC, we discussed how Iowa final results have differed from last polls by as much as 9% and Cruz win would not be surprising.
- 16:56:22 It was not the EXPECTED result, but it was well within the range of possibility given the polls, so not shocking. Rubio win would have been.
- 16:57:53 Important to keep in mind for next week that the same is true of New Hampshire polls. If #1 and #2 are within 10%, could go either way.
- 16:58:59 The leader is more likely to win of course, and the bigger the margin the more likely, but nobody should feel safe with a single digit lead.
- 17:00:12 This probably true for all primary polling. Once we get to the general, a 5% margin means a bit more. Less volatile, more predictable.
- 17:05:50 .@imbou and I also discussed last week the massive 30%+ “might change mind” number last week. At play in IA. Watch for that in NH too.
- 18:24:23 Last night NYT/WaPo/CNN/AP diff fr Greenpapers on R del count which diff from my own calcs. I went with majors. GP now matches my calcs. :-/
- 18:26:23 This evening I’ll check to see if NYT/WaPo/CNN/AP or others have adjusted R dels. Since GP matches my calcs now, may shift totals tonight.
- 18:28:17 Shift would be to take one del each from Cruz/Rubio, give them to Fiorina/Kasich. See GP: https://t.co/CQtlFK5rZa
- 18:28:57 I should have trusted my own calculations! Figured I had to be missing something since I didn’t match either GP or the majors!
- 18:29:17 Oh well, time to go to work…
- 18:49:15 .@TheGreenPapers Any idea why majors have 8-7-7-3-1-1 for Iowa R del count while you have 7-7-6-3-1-1-1-1? My calcs match yours BTW.
- 19:40:41 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 19:07:33 @abulsme you are too smart & dedicated for this world. Go pops. :)
- 19:40:57 .@AmyNotAmy Aw shucks. Thanks! :-) in reply to AmyNotAmy
- 19:44:44 Retweeted @adrian_gray 19:44:34 % of NH Primary Voters that decided in final week (via previous exit polls)
2012: 62
2008: 50
2000: 41
1996: 57 - 21:24:53 Retweeted @mviser 04:06:53 Trump supporters are totally shocked. One woman tearfully says, “It’s just heartbreaking. He really wanted to Make America Great Again."
- 22:01:55 Retweeted @mviser 19:35:23 Number of NH events candidates have announced so far before election day:
Kasich: 19
Christie: 17
Cruz: 16
Rubio: 12
Bush: 10
Trump: 3