17:17:48 A few quick notes on the leaked Trump internal polls of Biden vs. Trump. [1/8]
17:18:10 1st: I am going to include them. Some aggregators automatically exclude them because of potential selective release bias, etc. I default to including as much as possible. So I’ll be adding them shortly. [2/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:18:25 2nd: I’m going with ABC on the field dates, not NBC. ABC reports March 15th to March 28th which is exactly two weeks. NBC reports March 13th to March 28th which includes two extra days. These almost certainly are the same batch of polls though. [3/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:19:47 3rd: ABC and NBC differ slightly on their reports of the results in PA, WI, and FL. In these cases I will include both, but weighted as half polls, just as I do when a pollster reports results in multiple ways (with & without 3rd parties, registered vs likely voters, etc.) [4/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:20:52 4th: For some states this leak only includes margins. Election Graphs only uses margin in calculations, but it displays & reports candidate results too. For the states where we only have leaked margins I will log the polls such that Trump-Biden=Margin and Trump+Biden=100%. [5/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:21:19 5th: If a range of possible margins is reported rather than a specific margin, I will log these as the center of that range. [6/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
17:21:32 6th: If more detailed leaks become available, I will adjust how these polls are recorded to reflect any new information. [7/8] in reply to ElecCollPolls
18:35:00 OK, that is it for the leaked Trump internal polls. There were category changes that resulted, so I’ll be doing a blog post soon to talk about them over at @ElectionGraphs.
16:01:02 I got 10 my first pass, then looked more carefully and got 13. On the third pass I got 14. But I don’t think I can go higher than that. https://t.co/wm1V873qC1
17:00:20@djlavoie And I have been paying attention! I run an election tracking website and everything! But honestly I’ve mostly been tuning out all but the top tier. Hell, my wife and I are planning on checking out a local Inslee event today, and I didn’t recognize him until my second pass! :-) in reply to djlavoie
18:20:11 Retweeted @MaraLiasson13:42:06 check this out:
-June 1983: Mondale 49%, Reagan 39%
-June 1991: George H.W. Bush 51%, Democrat 28%, Don’t know 21%
-June 1995: Dole 48%, Clinton 44%
-June 2011: Republican 44%, Obama 39% https://t.co/vqaXmtMm00
18:42:13 Retweeted @KristiCCoulter17:47:29 Sooooo, I must take issue with the notion that sobriety can include…still drinking. But rn I’m just hopping around and prancercizing and stuff because the NYT finally noticed me. https://t.co/8DGdbWK6fa
19:06:27@AaronBlake@KFaulders@wsteaks Only the margins are listed for FL and TX in the article, while you have the specific results for each candidate for PA and WI. Any chance you can reveal the candidate numbers for FL/TX? Or did you only get to see the margin for those? Thanks! in reply to AaronBlake
19:47:03 Retweeted @TheAtlantic19:27:01 A founding tenet of the tech industry is that over time, computers get more powerful—and therefore better. Writing on a three-decade-old Apple Macintosh, @ibogost argues the opposite. https://t.co/tlUjYXwNyb
19:59:23 Reading: How Donald Trump silenced the people who could expose his business failures – The Washington Post https://t.co/2KLRTyYhJf
21:27:48 It’s that time again. We have reached the can that was kicked down the road a little while back. https://t.co/auUgsAOvac
22:38:07 Retweeted @AdamSerwer20:05:58 This is correct, and yet Comey, who twice publicly broke protocol in order to damage one major party candidate while keeping it secret that the other was under investigation, has no place lecturing anyone on this subject, ever https://t.co/muLei9p1Gv
23:33:54 Retweeted @MaxBoot14:14:23 “Mr. Trump had not been briefed in any detail….Pentagon and intelligence officials described broad hesitation to go into detail with Mr. Trump about operations against Russia for concern over his reaction.” https://t.co/dpD7a6O0OM
01:59:38 Retweeted @JPMajor2019-06-13 20:23:33 A look into the ~1,200-mile (1,930-km) -wide vortex of clouds swirling around Saturn’s rotational north pole. This is a color-composite made from images captured by #Cassini in visible-light filters on June 14, 2013. https://t.co/AwKs6sIjlv
02:01:31 Retweeted @aussiastronomer2019-06-13 19:58:32 WE DID IT! <symbol><symbol>@NASAExoArchive just passed 4000 confirmed exoplanets. There are *4,003* worlds we know about orbiting other stars in our Galaxy. That’s 4,003 chances for cyanide skies, lava oceans, magenta sunsets, supersonic cloud streams…
07:23:01 Retweeted @EliotHiggins07:08:10 Looking at the videos and photographs published by the US we can at least say the location shown in the video of the Kokuka Courageous where the US said Iran removed a mine is consistent with the photos the US published. https://t.co/jwOhnKeRAt
14:57:35 Retweeted @HunterDK14:27:46 Barr: I’ve seen the Mueller report and it says no crimes.McConnell: Case closed!
Mueller: Trump did do crimes, but since he is POTUS only Congress can do something about it.
McConnell: Case closed!
Trump: I am going to do more crimes.
McConnell.: CASE. CLOSED.
17:43:22 Retweeted @rubycramer16:26:23 NBC has the two groups, Purple and Orange.PURPLE:
Harris
Biden
Bernie
Pete
Gillibrand
Bennet
Williamson
Swalwell
Yang
Hickenlooper
ORANGE:
Booker
Warren
Beto
Klobuchar
Delaney
Tulsi
Castro
Ryan
de Blasio
Inslee
17:51:22 Despite the efforts to structure things so it wouldn’t happen, with Biden and Sanders on the same night, there is now clearly a main debate and a kids table debate. Good news for Harris and Buttigieg who drew that night. Bad news for Warren and O’Rourke who did not. https://t.co/lHeCWzxrdH
03:34:50@cheesuscripes46 I realize the way it was intended. That does not make it OK. It isn’t the 50’s any more, or even the 90’s. And the fact Joe hasn’t changed this kind of thing even after having it pointed out to him is a problem. in reply to cheesuscripes46
03:40:16@cheesuscripes46 I do feel embarrassed for him. I am not rightfully indignant. But I shouldn’t have to be embarrassed. I shouldn’t have to shake my head about stupid stuff. If he is the nominee, he has my vote. But why pick someone with this problem when you have others that can do this right? in reply to cheesuscripes46
03:43:08@cheesuscripes46 I have actually been a fan of Biden since his run in 1988. I have liked him a lot over the years. I still like him. But he has not kept up, and is not the right person for this time. This kind of thing just brings that clearly into focus. in reply to cheesuscripes46
03:59:47 Retweeted @RadioFreeTom2019-06-12 23:44:51 “I would take help from a foreign adversary against U.S. citizens running against me and not notify the FBI” is about as clear a violation of the oath to protect and defend the Constitution, against all enemies foreign and domestic, as there could be.
04:01:07 Retweeted @AJRummer2019-06-12 11:35:28 Had my first ever exchange today with someone who used “millennial” to mean “old person” rather than “young person”.(She’s 24)
04:24:42 Retweeted @owillis03:48:33 We shouldn’t have to be yelling at the Democrats to do their jobs. If anything we should be holding back Pelosi from going too hot and mean at Trump.
18:28:14 This isn’t adding up to me. What upside would there be to Iran for this kind of attack? I’ve seen “raise the price of oil” mentioned, but surely the obvious downsides outweigh that? Iran wants to pick a fight with Japan while the Japanese PM is visiting? What? https://t.co/anIeYjwoEr
18:35:18 Retweeted @dylanmatt13:46:33 The modal outcome in 2021 is something like “Biden/Warren/Sanders is president with a GOP majority in the Senate and is incapable of doing anything legislatively” and I’m not sure Dems are prepared for how completely depressing that will be https://t.co/wL5yd346Zh
18:35:42 Retweeted @daveweigel15:58:32 When you push Sanders or Biden on how their agenda would get through, they say public pressure would break the Rs.They should probably check “Cocaine Mitch” Twitter, which sets off fireworks every time a bill with 70-90% polling support gets smothered. https://t.co/W0kWWLgmt2
18:51:48 Retweeted @BadAstronomer2019-06-12 15:32:30 There are times when reading a scientific paper really jolts me: A super fundamental thing we thought we knew about spiral galaxies… well, we *thought* we knew it. Turns out, maybe not so much.Spiral arms really do wind up. This changes everything.
20:25:10 Retweeted @NPRKelly20:22:19 “You might ask, what does it matter? Since there are no briefings.” ~@MaraLiasson responding to a question about who might replace Sanders, as the news broke during her live hit on @npratc. https://t.co/2SLRxdzzEN
20:34:39 Retweeted @ChrisLu4420:25:22 Smart take by @JRubinBlogger on Conway’s Hatch Act violation. If Trump does nothing, this is a new basis for impeachment. Congress also should strengthen Hatch Act. One idea: adding provision to appropriations bills cutting off salary for anyone recommended for removal. 2/2 https://t.co/hxfa4seAcmin reply to ChrisLu44
23:14:52 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten23:12:49 For those keeping tracking at home, Bullock missed the debate by 1 respondent. Bennet made the debate because people who didn’t know his name offered him as a response anyway… #america
23:24:07 Thread. Straw bans are stupid posturing without much (if any) significant positive impact, but plenty of negative. There are better ways to address environmental problems. https://t.co/7o8lO293hH
23:31:33 Retweeted @JordanMeehan18:18:49 You guys, I’m screaming.You can get periodic photos of @ewarren‘s dog Bailey sent to your phone by texting “Bailey” to 244-77.
This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan talk about Trump and his administration and what they are doing, duh… but they also talk about kids being exhausting in the summer, anti-vax idiots, and WWDC. Enjoy the show!
Click below to listen and subscribe!
1-Click Subscribe in iTunes View Podcast in iTunes View Raw Podcast Feed Download MP3 File Follow the podcast on Facebook Support us on Patreon
Show Details:
Recorded 2019-06-14 Length this week – 2:16:13
(0:00:21-0:37:16) Round 1
Ivan: Summer exhaustion
Sam: Trump admin ignoring laws and ethics
(0:38:33-1:30:02) Round 2
Ivan: War with Iran?
Sam: Trump on taking foreign help
(1:31:45-) Round 3
Ivan: Anti-vax idiots
Sam: WWDC
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.
02:01:41 Retweeted @ABCPolitics2019-06-11 15:51:45 “Your indifference cost these men and women their most valuable commodity: time.”Jon Stewart receives a standing ovation from 9/11 first responders after slamming lawmakers for failing to fund programs providing healthcare to the first responders https://t.co/vSFOq11Wr5https://t.co/BrAC3UfYMD
17:25:28 Retweeted @sarahw14:44:11 Google Reader died almost exactly six years ago and if I had to pinpoint when the Internet nosedived, that would be the day
19:13:57 Retweeted @AdamParkhomenko18:42:11 That he still has patience left demonstrates what an absolute fucking joke his efforts have been so far. Less time stalling, less time on tv and more time producing the accountability you were elected to provide. https://t.co/ssa7xupahx
19:16:07 Retweeted @Delavegalaw16:02:49 Oh, for cryin’ out loud, Dems, please just issue all the subpoenas that need to be issued! Do it all at once and don’t talk about it anymore. We don’t have time to wait around pretending that this administration is ever going to do the right thing. Ever. https://t.co/myJhXJK41p
19:53:00@btitus This race would be so much healthier if both Biden and Sanders had just stepped back and not run. There are plenty of other interesting people running. in reply to btitus
20:40:45 Retweeted @geoffreyvs20:12:01 20 Democrats have qualified for the first debates on June 26-27. Barring any late polls tonight or donor surprises tomorrow, the DNC won’t need tiebreakers to sort out who’s in and who’s out. Bad news is for Steve Bullock, who remains 1 poll short. https://t.co/2iR3qMJKwohttps://t.co/rQ1i9Wu5Cz
01:23:43 Retweeted @owillis01:15:37 Biden is pandering to what is probably a majority of Democratic voters with this stupid “the good Republicans” schtick. It’s the same reason House Dems are insisting on Aaron Sorkin cosplay instead of just impeaching Trump. It’s all very dumb but it’s the voters fault, IMO
01:48:07 Retweeted @whstancil2019-06-10 22:34:00 Nadler going rogue would strengthen his own investigation, too. Right now, after endless coverage of Pelosi’s refusal to impeach, everybody in DC knows Nadler is all bark, no bite. Why listen to a cop who promises not to arrest you?https://t.co/CVTNiydSiW
02:06:11 Retweeted @ElieNYC2019-06-10 15:07:56 So that time I pointed out that @amychua‘s op-ed in defense of Kavanaugh should be read with an understanding that her daughter was going to get a clerkship with Kavanaugh and all the Chua defenders said that her daughter wasn’t applying and I said WAIT A YEAR… I was right? https://t.co/SO1KOVlRZm
19:07:39 Retweeted @HotlineJosh19:05:36 “Democrats still have so much post-traumatic stress from the last presidential campaign that they’re unable to recognize the obvious: President Trump is a serious underdog for re-election.” https://t.co/3nuOx17N8X
20:08:21 That’s me in the black t-shirt on the couch! I barely recognized myself! Many decades later, the Curmudgeon’s Corner show @imbou and I did at @wrct883 lives on as a podcast. But I still miss the days doing it live on the radio! Great place, great people! https://t.co/B5DZRAEzq9in reply to wrct883
20:29:33 Retweeted @byelin20:00:58 Highly recommend this dose of realism from @brianbeutler: https://t.co/SNhVpqBfE2.Even if Biden is saying this stuff (Republicans will compromise again!) for cynical political purposes, it is destructive and will cripple his Presidency.
22:29:45 This is why you shouldn’t take your foot off the gas and blink when they offer a “compromise”. https://t.co/XiNrasZnDE
23:20:36 Retweeted @mattdpearce21:42:26 Hung jury: One or more jurors refused to convict border activist Scott Daniel Warren for providing two migrants with water, food and lodging. He faced up to 20 years in prison if convicted. https://t.co/YjKuD0OBo5