17:09:08 Retweeted @mviser16:41:22 We are AGAIN in this cycle: 1) Trump goes to a rally 2) Trump said what?!? This’ll hurt him 3) Trump goes up in polls 4) Everyone shrugs
23:15:01 Just made my first ApplePay purchase. An orange soda. At a vending machine. At work. So exciting. Umm…
00:01:25 Today was my follow up broken foot appointment. Healing slowly. Can wear normal shoe now, start trying to put weight on foot. No running.
00:02:20 So I am doing that. Limping. Moving slow. But no longer have to heel walk. So… slow but sure improvement. Which is good I guess.
00:02:40 Just got home. Just turned on the undercard debate. Did I make a big mistake? :-)
00:30:19 Graham is somewhat entertaining here, but nobody on this undercard debate matters. Why are we doing this?
00:36:54 Lindsay Graham with the Princess Bride references. What? Sigh.
01:33:37 Was multitasking during undercard debate, but guess I’ll pay more attention to main event… at least until Alex gets home from Grandma’s. :-)
01:36:42 There are too many people in the main debate. Should just be Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson. MAYBE Bush if folks are feeling extra generous.
01:41:22 The part from the “now time for the debate” until the first question is approximately five hours.
01:41:44 Retweeted @wilw01:41:28 Trump is not some kind of unexpected outlier. He is the mainstream of the GOP base, and the result of decades of dog whistles from the party
01:48:34 Oh, they get to introduce themselves again. Yawn!
01:49:42 Paul comes out of the gate attacking. Also immediately highlighting places he is different than pretty much everybody else. His only play.
01:50:37 Retweeted @ananavarro01:50:27 The debate rules should be based on Jeopardy. All answers should be in the form of a question.
01:52:17 Very glad the candidates are using their intros for something other than their bios, even if it is still mostly blah.
01:52:47 Retweeted @speechboy7101:52:25 Chris Christie is now bashing Clinton and Obama for not protecting America from losing its shit over phantom threats
02:01:24 1st actual q now! About Trump’s immigration stuff… Wolf calls it isolation. Trump parries, about “security”. To the casual viewer, wins.
02:01:57 Retweeted @WakeUp2Politics02:01:44 Trump: "We're not talking about isolation: we're talking about security. We're not talking about religion: we're talking about security."
02:03:08 Bush appealing to reason against Trump. Doesn’t get why Trump is winning. Trump slams him on reply. Trump wins again.
02:03:47 Retweeted @LarrySabato02:03:23 Bush: Trump is "the chaos candidate". Trump: Bush is a failed candidate.
02:14:59 I tuned out for a few minutes. Did I miss anything that mattered? Oh, Cruz drinking water while Rubio talks. Isn’t that backwards?
02:17:42 Retweeted @TheFix02:17:31 Rand attacking Rubio on NSA and spying is a giant win for Rubio. Rand is not near the center of the party on the issues.
02:19:15 Don’t agree on the substance, but Rubio coming off good in the exchanges with Cruz and Paul.
02:21:51 Carson complaining about not getting time. Once again, always a losing move. Candidates, don’t do this, even if you ARE getting screwed.
02:22:18 Retweeted @politicalmath02:22:02 The problem with "trust me on surveillance" is that no one trusts the gov't on anything anymore.
02:23:10 To Carson: Who was right on last debate question? Carson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening.
02:24:51 Retweeted @DKThomp02:23:28 carson: you never let me speak.
wolf: okay. do you have an opinion about the last half hour’s foreign policy debate?
carson: pass.
02:25:18 Retweeted @owillis02:25:09 the more i see fiorina debating the more i see why hp nearly collapsed
02:27:47 “I don’t want them using OUR Internet” – Trump showing his vast technical knowledge
02:30:24 Retweeted @SamWangPhD02:30:16 I hate to back up the Donald on this, but I thought most global internet traffic passed through US-based hardware.
02:31:01 Retweeted @politicalmath02:30:31 On encryption, Kasich has no f***ing idea what he's talking about. Everyone is dumb. I hate you all.
02:32:18 Cruz avoiding the actual question here I think. Bleh.
02:32:45 Retweeted @PeteDominick02:32:29 Ted Cruz has no idea how our bombs work. It's not 1943 you fucking cartoon villain.
02:32:56 Retweeted @DanielLarison02:32:32 Cruz: "You would carpet bomb where ISIS is." Ok, so you would slaughter the people in the cities they control. Got it
02:35:41 “We will utterly destroy them by targeting the bad guys.” – Master of nuance Ted Cruz
02:36:43 Paul tries to jump in. Shut down. Sorry Rand.
02:37:47 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller02:37:39 Trump repeating debunked conspiracy theories about girlfriends of 9/11 hijackers
02:38:26 Trump makes faces when Bush talks. Wins the interaction no matter what Bush says.
02:39:30 Trump – Bush showdown… Trump wins as usual. Shuts Bush down by talking over him and being aggressive. Bush so done.
02:41:14 Retweeted @DanielLarison02:40:53 Jeb: "You're not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency, Donald." The nomination, on the other hand…
02:42:35 Carson: “Death by a thousand pricks” – sounds like a description of this debate
02:42:53 Retweeted @ClaraJeffery02:42:31 "You got it" –Ben Carson, on being asked if he's ok with the deaths of tens of thousands of women and children
02:52:09 I’m trying to listen to what Carson is saying, but it just isn’t working.
02:53:00 Looks like Ryan just announced a budget deal right in the middle of the debate. Perfect timing. :-)
02:58:04 Distracted for a few minutes by my son getting home. Did I miss anything?
02:58:47 Retweeted @nprpolitics02:58:38 Talk times 1st break:
Cruz 7:50
Rubio 7:41
Trump 6:16
Christie 5:21
Fiorina 5:18
Bush 5:07
Carson 4:49
Paul 4:41
Kasich 4:37 #nprdebate
03:00:52 Protester interrupting Trump! Will they get beaten?
03:05:01 Retweeted @7im03:04:50 this is chaos. it makes no sense. these are presidential candidates
03:15:26 I told @imbou right now I think Trumps odds of nom at 40%, more than others, but <50%. If wins think would lose but by less than Romney did.
03:16:05 Also mentioned to @imbou that I will probably change my mind by tomorrow when we record podcast, let alone next week or next month. :-)
03:16:29 Retweeted @TheFix03:16:19 Give Jeb a ton of credit for this: He is the only one going after Trump in any sustained way.
03:17:23 .@TheFix Losing every one of those exchanges though. Maybe not on substance, but substance doesn’t matter here. Unfortunately. in reply to TheFix
03:18:38 “Im at 42%, you are at 3%.” Trump crushes Bush again. Poor Jeb.
03:22:24 Retweeted @kenrudin03:22:14 Let Trump make all the insults he wants, or be as juvenile as he wants. If that's what GOP voters want, God bless. We get what we deserve.
03:23:51 Interesting thing is that Cruz/Trump fireworks have been avoided. Plus for both of them probably. For now.
03:25:03 Retweeted @wilw03:24:34 Ted Cruz has managed to emerge as the biggest asshole on this stage. That is a significant achievement, and he should be proud of himself.
03:52:35 Retweeted @jonfavs03:50:59 I agree with Trump that our biggest threat is a manic getting his hands on nuclear weapons,which is why I don't think he should be President
03:53:58 This debate is once again too long. I thought Trump insisted on these being no longer than two hours. What’s up?
03:54:16 Trump saying no to third party run? Don’t spoil the fun!
03:54:49 Probably because he is pretty sure he is going to win the nomination now.
03:56:05 Note Trump didn’t promise anything in any way that can’t change if he is treated “unfairly” in the future.
03:56:27 Retweeted @LarrySabato03:56:15 Trump says 'no independent bid'. Cheers. But what if he's "treated unfairly" as the process unfolds? Every day's a new day.
03:57:13 Better Q right now is to other candidates to see if any of them would run 3P if Trump wins nom. They would all dodge question of course.
03:57:37 Answers like, “Trump won’t win, so I will support the nominee.”
03:59:06 Closing statements? This is actually going to end?
03:59:18 Retweeted @NateSilver53803:59:09 Why is it headline news that Trump promised to not to run as an independent? He promised that months ago, wavered from it, will do so again.
04:07:18 Post-debate poll predictions: Trump steady or up, but Cruz/Rubio continue to gain on him. Carson/Bush continue to drop. Nobody else matters.
04:09:08 Bottom line though, nothing happened to dethrone Trump. His odds of the nom keep going up. Not over 50% yet, but better than others.
04:10:51 My take on Republican nomination odds right now, 40% Trump, 25% Cruz, 25% Rubio, 10% someone else.
04:13:36 Trump on CNN saying “no third party run no matter what”. Follow up makes clear it is because he thinks he is going to win nom outright.
04:14:48 That is the most unambiguous statement yet. Could still change his mind if he feels he gets screwed in some way, but… he thinks he has this.
04:16:54 That “not” was unclear. I thought the interviewer thought he said not, then asked for confirmation, and Trump confirmed no matter what.
17:07:14 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten17:04:43 I ran the #s on predictiveness of Iowa polls on Iowa outcome at this point. The predictive error 95% of time for each candidate is +/- 19%.