This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-27 (UTC)

Posted by Abulsme -- Monday 27 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-26 (UTC)

  • Reading – New Orleans In Peril, Again? (Brendan Loy) http://t.co/ybyoeptK #
  • MT @DLeonhardt: Little-noticed fact of the week: CBO says US econ will be stronger in 2022 if Taxmageddon occurs. http://t.co/cKajaJQd #
  • MT @KevinGoldsmith: Once again, it is cheaper to buy the DVD and ship it then it is to buy the digital version. This industry is broken. #
  • RT @PeterHambyCNN: Mark Sanford is engaged to his Argentinian girlfriend. CNN exclusive photos of the couple > http://t.co/CcIIQiyn #
  • MT @natsecHeather: My take on GOP natsec plat: the grownups hung onto the MidEast sec let the crazy kids play elsewhere http://t.co/dMDzNvFL #
  • RT @joshtpm: This is excellent news for John McCain #
  • Reading – Parsing the RNC's national security platform (Heather Hurlburt) http://t.co/dMDzNvFL #
  • MT @RyanMaue: Well, enough of HWRF 00z is in for #Isaac Cat 4-5 on a straight line to New Orleans. Unbelievable. http://t.co/FkJCGZe2 #
  • MT @RyanMaue: Everyone waiting on European Model to fire off first 72-96 hours due in at 2:05-2:10 AM … hit panic button or be "perplexed" #
  • @twitntwirp2012 On Rasmussen, never look at ANY individual poll. Ever. Always look at averages of several or you will be chasing ghosts. #
  • MT @RyanMaue: Some good news, GFDL goes N almost to Miami, means weaker Gulf landfall as large system near P'cola. http://t.co/LJRllijX #
  • @twitntwirp2012 All pollsters have house effects. Some fancier models try to compensate. I just avg them all and let that do the work. #
  • @twitntwirp2012 See some additional discussion of how I deal with outliers (or don't) in my post about the Florida flip http://t.co/TBnQwnxN #
  • Reading – DГ©jГ  Vu: Isaac’s Katrina Moment? (Brendan Loy) http://t.co/73THIEcU #
  • @twitntwirp2012 Dunno what they call it. :-) I tend toward the simple. So much uncertainty not sure additional complexity helps much. #
  • MT @RyanMaue: ECMWF 00z into Mobile that will prevent NHC from taking track any further W than that, until 12z tomorrow http://t.co/PUeSm0IK #
  • @twitntwirp2012 Honestly though I would have a blast making much more complicated models if it was my job instead of a spare time hobby. :-) #
  • @twitntwirp2012 Heh, no. Won't find me working for any pols any time soon. Besides, then I'd have to research their stuff, not mine. :-) #
  • Reading – Uncertainty Continues Regarding Isaac’s Track, Intensity (Brendan Loy) http://t.co/303EX2yL #
  • Reading – Prodigies Leaping Beyond Electronic Dance Music (Ben Sisario) http://t.co/Re4Bf6nz #
  • Reading – Plot to Provoke war with Iran thwarted by Navy analyst (Juan Cole) http://t.co/UQIh5YpN #
  • Reading – Why was a Navy adviser stripped of her career? (Matthew Abbott) http://t.co/SbMPqluL #
  • Reading – Reporters: Why are you in Tampa? (Jeff Jarvis) http://t.co/TJBfzJvv #
  • MT @brendanloy: GFDL joins HWRF and GFS in 6z run, predicting Louisiana landfall. #consistency #consensus? #isaac #
  • MT @brendanloy: Isaac MAY WELL NOT strengthen as forecast by models but that doesn't mean we can dismiss & ignore models. Must take srsly. #
  • RT @brendanloy: Here's the latest "spaghetti" track for #Isaac Consensus seems basically centered on NOLA & environs. http://t.co/BXtLsExD #
  • RT @marsroverdriver: Flying cars, schmying cars. I want my Portal gun. #
  • Reading – Isaac A Major Threat to New Orleans; Is Anyone Paying Attention (Brendan Loy) http://t.co/rQwdng5Q #
  • Reading – The fall of Angry Birds (Trey Smith) http://t.co/N7NgIUlm #
  • RT @breakingstorm: Isaac hurricane watch expanded to include metropolitan New Orleans, Louisiana – ‏@usNWSgov http://t.co/XScW0F5F #
  • RT @brendanloy: “IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
    GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.” http://t.co/aA04Do22 #
  • Reading – An update on the Arctic sea-ice (rasmus, RealClimate) http://t.co/JuE1oALo #
  • Reading – How Facebook design tricks people into trading away privacy (Cory Doctorow) http://t.co/WnyWtMT4 #
  • Reading – Ryan 2012 v. Palin 2008 (Sam Wang) http://t.co/XDmCXSlp #
  • Reading – We Need Inflation-Tolerance, Not Inflation (Matthew Yglesias) http://t.co/Tscoj7HN #
  • Reading – Stuck with Akin (Seth Masket) http://t.co/6a6IIf5Z #
  • Reading – Apple's 'iPad Mini' Media Event Planned for October (Eric Slivka) http://t.co/8cnjcLFQ #
  • Reading – Jump! (Phil Plait) http://t.co/BtOxm9hg #
  • Reading – Everybody Jump (Randall Monroe) http://t.co/Zgc6Ybpx #
  • Reading – A Verdict That Alters an Industry (Brian X. Chen and Lisa Alcalay Klug) http://t.co/bNkFcDYT #
  • Reading – Hurricane Ryan passes. Duration: one news cycle (Sam Wang) http://t.co/SCIdNnHp #
  • Reading – Capitol Dome Is Imperiled by Cracks and a Partisan Divide (Jennifer Steinhauer) http://t.co/14txiWIs #
  • Reading – Why the next two weeks may be make-or-break for Romney-Ryan (Harry J Enten) http://t.co/eq9oObYq #
  • Reading – Security Meltdown at Republican Convention in Tampa (Lauren Ashburn) http://t.co/vL5d7aBt #
  • Reading – 6 Years Ago Today, Pluto Was Demoted (Robinson Meyer) http://t.co/XLOon2OY #
  • Reading – Without mediation (Jeff Jarvis) http://t.co/qPLwWbyl #
  • Reading – 26 Internet safety talking points (Scott McLeod) http://t.co/JJI68eyc #
  • RT @owillis: hey rnc delegates… there's still time. #sarah #
  • RT @RyanMaue: No change with GFS 12z, still taking powerful #Isaac west of New Orleans. http://t.co/Nh7MUvbn http://t.co/AtDPVLY4 #
  • Reading – Yet another Jill Stein puff piece (Chris Faraone) http://t.co/yipuFd78 #
  • RT @RyanMaue: HWRF 12z "outer nest" minimum pressure of 936 mb, that's solid Category 4 — into New Orleans. http://t.co/JgtSbQJp #
  • Really? Of course it is. MT @Chris_Moody: Barry Goldwater Jr. asks Ron Paul rally if US is better off now than in 1964. Crowd: “NOOOO!!!” #
  • RT @ZekeJMiller: RT @michaelpfalcone: In downtown Tampa, just spotted a fleet of cars with stuffed animal dogs strapped to the roof #Seamus #
  • RT @brendanloy: Imagine the politics of this if Romney had picked Jindal. #
  • MT @BigJoeBastardi: Amazing.. the mid point model spread is New Orleans. ECMWF tries to spare NOLA with track like Ivan. Pick your poison #
  • Reading – How Will Party Conventions Affect the Presidential Race? (John Sides) http://t.co/KhQQo82N #
  • RT @JKWxman: Pressure now dropping in #Isaac per latest recon. Down to 992mb…strengthening has begun… #
  • RT @spann: 18Z model set. Euro is now an outlier to the east. Next NHC forecast track at 4 (CDT) http://t.co/Hq2as3ex #
  • MT @fivethirtyeight: "Always prep for 1 cat higher than 4cast, knowing that intensity-forecast skill is not high" http://t.co/knsTBqZ8 #
  • RT @brendanloy: New Orleans planning to “shelter in place.” Did he miss the memo where it mentioned his city is below sea level? #
  • RT @brendanloy: Mayor Landrieu: on current path, storm should get here in 34 hours, but we’re not evacuating because meh, whatever. #WTFNOLA #
  • MT @brendanloy: New Orleans, your city gov’t doesn’t get it. They dont understand tail risk. You’re on your own. Get. The. Hell. Out. #isaac #
  • RT @brendanloy: “Depending on course and intensity, we may have…evacuations.” IT WILL BE TOO LATE #
  • RT @brendanloy: New Orleans City Council President says we should pray. Clearly, yes, that is the plan. #HopeIsNotAStrategy #
Posted by Abulsme -- Sunday 26 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-25 (UTC)

Posted by Abulsme -- Saturday 25 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-25 (UTC)

Posted by Abulsme -- Friday 24 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-24 (UTC)

Posted by Abulsme -- Thursday 23 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-22 (UTC)

Posted by Abulsme -- Wednesday 22 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-21 (UTC)

  • RT @ppppolls: Mitt Romney ever so slightly in the lead on our Wisconsin poll. Results out tomorrow #
  • RT @ppppolls: Last month we had Romney at 87% of GOP vote in Wisconsin, now 93%. That is probably the true Ryan effect- party unification #
  • RT @thinkprogress: UPDATE: Mitt Romney will not call on Todd Akin to drop out of the race http://t.co/YtilosrK #
  • RT @joshtpm: Sometimes I misspeak and inadvertently endorse bizarre medical theories w/no basis in science. #longday #misspoke #ovaaresmart #
  • MT @electionate: I think Romney’s chances depend more on making up several pts turnout than some 1980-redux where he sweeps undecided voters #
  • RT @mattdawidowicz: Obama is not “trading Wisconsin for Florida”. If these WI polls stick and Romney wins nationally, he will win both. #
  • RT @markos: Conservatives still hate Romney, but they can now vote FOR Ryan. Their challenge is to get everyone else to do so. #
  • RT @daveweigel: So, Medicare? I vaguely remember talking about that. #
  • RT @markos: Akin has five weeks to drop out, if he wants to: http://t.co/mDA1TgAf #
  • MT @owillis: akin: I used the wrong words in the wrong way. trans: sry i said what i actually believed. that stuff’s for the base not y’all. #
  • RT @Atrios: so there’s the forcible rape, and then the non-forcible kind #whatthefuck #
  • RT @owillis: really wish akin and his supporters could clearly delineate which forms of rape they are/aren’t ok with. asking for a friend. #
  • RT @MileHighBecky: I’d like to congratulate Claire McCaskill on 6 more years in the Senate. #
  • RT @HiCommander: Maybe we should convince the USN that it needs to send a boat to Titan. #
  • RT @HiCommander: After all, the USAF has a secret mini robot space shuttle. Why can’t the USN have a mini robot boat? On Titan. #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Not gonna lie. I’m a little bit heartbroken. We now officially have no outer planets missions in the works. #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Still operational: New Horizons, Cassini, and Juno. So sometime ~2018 will have no outer solar system missions. #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Luckily the Europeans are working on a mission to Europa. So, there’s that #
  • RT @PlanetDr: Didn’t count the Voyagers as outer solar system missions since they are presently leaving the solar system (=P to @asrivkin) #
  • MT @mckaycoppins: Seriously brutal @TheOnion “Pregnant Woman Relieved To Learn Her Rape Was Illegitimate” http://t.co/Ml7K4Lvd #
  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: A photo of Todd Aiken posing with a sign that reads “You can’t fix stupid.” http://t.co/AAcejQYG #
  • Reading – When the Polling Gets Weird (Nate Silver) http://t.co/wf69qHfM #
  • RT @ppppolls: After all that Akin STILL leads McCaskill, 44-43. Little difference from our last poll which was Akin 45-44 #
  • RT @dandrezner: And the other 25% were on crack? MT @ppppolls: 75% of Missouri voters think Akin’s comments were inappropriate #
  • Reading – Romney Says Todd Akin Should Exit Missouri Senate Race (Charles Johnson) http://t.co/Us0eoRLD #
Posted by Abulsme -- Tuesday 21 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-20 (UTC)

  • MT @ToddAkin To be clear all of us understand that rape can result in pregnancy & I have great empathy for victims. I regret misspeaking. #
  • Reading – Is Akin Toast? (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/0pxV6Lv0 #
  • RT @GarrettQuinn: So something happened in the Missouri US Senate race today, huh? #
  • MT @owillis: shorter nyt: repubs said a thing. and the democrats disagree. we can’t possibly investigate the factual inaccuracies here y’al. #
  • MT @BenjySarlin: Dont get why Romney response to Akin is so weak — whole GOP seems to be dumping him, it’s like a rare free throw w/ indies #
  • RT @DemConWatch: Paul calls for his supporters to be civil http://t.co/TNan3OYU #
  • RT @KenJennings: Can you imagine the very first brave soul who ever saw a Triscuit and thought, “Hey, maybe you could eat those”? #
  • MT @binarybits: @asymmetricinfo I think theory (which I don’t endorse) is women will pretend they were raped in order to get an abortion. #
  • MT @cordjefferson: Unless you drown, there is nothing regrettable about drinking with your friends & going skinny dipping. Own it. #
  • Reading – A Canard That Will Not Die: ‘Legitimate Rape’ Doesn’t Cause Pregnancy (Garance Franke-Ruta) http://t.co/BEWyz7Du #
Posted by Abulsme -- Monday 20 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-19 (UTC)

  • RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: How could somebody not know? http://t.co/jMl975p6 #
  • RT @N165Mars: Starting to think maybe my new robot neighbor doesn't want to be my friend. Did I say something wrong? #
  • RT @N165Mars: OW OW OW! STOP IT! #
  • Reading – Obama Leads Big — Among Those Least Likely to Vote (Nate Silver) http://t.co/gVjcZVWS #
  • Reading – Julian Assange's right to asylum (Glenn Greenwald) http://t.co/ApTdP82Z #
  • RT @LarrySabato: 2012 not a year for poll bounces, VP or convention. Low % undecideds, voters dug in. #
  • Nyad interviewed me once. RT @hilaryr: Follow @diananyad's progress here: http://t.co/uC7p2dSR #
  • MT @dandrezner: Assange: isn't the obvious diplomatic strategy to wait him out? 100% chance he'll piss off the embassy within a year. #
  • Reading – GOP Rep. Akin: 'Female Body Has Ways to Shut Down' Pregnancy in Case of 'Legitimate Rape' (Charles Johnson) http://t.co/1pXe9TQ4 #
  • MT @HowardKurtz: Newsweek says Fareed Zakaria had been under favorable consideration for Obama's natl security adviser http://t.co/YAvu6sll #
  • Reading – The Tea Party Penalty (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/7A0OuUid #
  • Reading – Todd Akin, “Legitimate Rape,” & The Republican War On Women (Oliver Willis) http://t.co/R8Qr8yxk #
  • RT @fivethirtyeight: Is it possible to win a Senate race with 0% of the women's vote? Asking for a friend. #
  • RT @N165Mars: I have a new name! And now I know what happened to me! http://t.co/LdZxRLVp (I'm still kinda sore though.) #
  • Reading – Republican Senate Nominee: Victims Of ‘Legitimate Rape’ Don’t Get Pregnant
    (McMorris-Santoro) http://t.co/ebGnxE4y #
  • Reading – Quote of the Day: Early Voting a Bad Idea Because it Makes it Easier for Blacks to Vote (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/wqdkuMwj #
  • MT @ToddAkin To be clear all of us understand that rape can result in pregnancy & I have great empathy for victims. I regret misspeaking.
Posted by Abulsme -- Sunday 19 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-08-18 (UTC)

  • Reading – Apple 'iTV,' iPad mini in full production, analyst claims (Salvador Rodriguez) http://t.co/v30wz5n0 #
  • Watching – Doctor Who: The Life and Death of River Song (Tribute) [VERITASERUMUK] http://t.co/CzKGzKhr #
Posted by Abulsme -- Saturday 18 August 2012 23:45:00 UTC
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